Infrastructure Investment and Spanish Economic Growth, 1850-1935

This paper analyzes the impact of infrastructure investment on Spanish economic growth between 1850 and 1935. Using new infrastructure data and VAR techniques, this paper shows that the growth impact of local-scope infrastructure investment was positive, but returns to investment in large nation-wide networks were not significantly different from zero. Two complementary explanations are suggested for the last result. On the one hand, public intervention and the application of non-efficiency investment criteria were very intense in large network construction. On the other hand, returns to new investment in large networks might have decreased dramatically once the basic links were constructed.

FDI from European Union to Western Balkan Countires: is the economic development being intensified in the region?

La inversió estrangera directa és important a causa dels seus avantatges per al país d'acollida, per exemple augmentarà la competitivitat i s’intensifica el desenvolupament. Els avantatges són significatives als països dels Balcans occidentals que s'enfronten a les dificultats de la competència i el creixement més baix de la UE-27. El treball analitza el tipus dominant de la IED de la UE-27 a la regió dels Balcans Occidentals a escala nacional i sectorial per formar les implicacions sobre el futur creixement de la competitivitat i la intensitat del desenvolupament econòmic. Es troba que la IED horitzontal domina als Balcans occidentals, per tant, el creixement de la competitivitat i el desenvolupament econòmic es va intensificar a la regió.

Stochasticity in economic losses increases the value of reputation in indirect reciprocity.

Recent theory predicts harsh and stochastic conditions to generally promote the evolution of cooperation. Here, we test experimentally whether stochasticity in economic losses also affects the value of reputation in indirect reciprocity, a type of cooperation that is very typical for humans. We used a repeated helping game with observers. One subject (the "Unlucky") lost some money, another one (the "Passer-by") could reduce this loss by accepting a cost to herself, thereby building up a reputation that could be used by others in later interactions. The losses were either stable or stochastic, but the average loss over time and the average efficiency gains of helping were kept constant in both treatments. We found that players with a reputation of being generous were generally more likely to receive help by others, such that investing into a good reputation generated long-term benefits that compensated for the immediate costs of helping. Helping frequencies were similar in both treatments, but players with a reputation to be selfish lost more resources under stochastic conditions. Hence, returns on investment were steeper when losses varied than when they did not. We conclude that this type of stochasticity increases the value of reputation in indirect reciprocity.

Wage inequality and economic growth in Mexican regions

Only a few studies have analysed the relationship between intraregional inequality and growth, although several studies have measured inequality at the regional level. The objective of this paper is to analyse the relationship between income (wage) inequality and economic growth in different regions of Mexico. We also try to identify factors that explain the variation of intra-regional inequality across Mexican regions and over time. Using macroeconomic databases and publicly available microdata, we apply techniques used in the fields of statistics and econometrics to obtain robust evidence on the relationship between growth and inequality. Our aim is to provide policy recommendations to support the design and implementation of growth-promoting measures thatavoid the exclusion of certain social groups. This paper provides reasons to use a spatial approach and an analysis of particular regions to avoid «one size fits all» policy recommendations.

How Important to a City Are Tourists and Daytrippers? The Economic Impact of Tourism on The City of Barcelona

In this paper, we devise a methodology that is able to objectively quantify the impact of tourism on the urban economy. This methodology takes various dimensions into account. First, to analyse the impact at sectoral level, it should bear in mind that tourism is a cross-sectional activity which affects many sectors, both directly and indirectly. Therefore, it is important to consider the impact of urban tourism on sectors traditionally defined as tourism-related, -that is, hotels, restaurants, shops, etc.- but also its impact on other sectors -for instance, textiles, food, construction, to name only a few- due to the intersectoral relationships that emerge. Second, we need to calculate the percentage of the turnover of each sector that is due to the tourism industry. Third, it is important to establish the geographic distribution of this impact: how is the effect shared between the city and its neighbouring areas QUESTION Finally, the effect of urban tourism should be quantified not only in terms of turnover, but also in terms of its contribution to GDP and employment.

The farthest need the best. Human capital composition and development-specific economic growth

We provide robust and compelling evidence of the marked impact of tertiary education on the economic growth of less developed countries and of its the relatively smaller impact on the growth of developed ones. Our results argue in favor of the accumulation of high skill levels especially in technologically under-developed countries and, contrary to common wisdom, independently of the fact that these economies might initially produce lower-technology goods or perform technology imitation. Our results are robust to the different measures used in proxying human capital and to the adjustments made for cross-country differences in the quality of education. Country-specific institutional quality, as well as other indicators including legal origin, religious fractionalization and openness to trade have been used to control for the robustness of the results. These factors are also shown to speed up technology convergence thereby confirming previous empirical studies. Our estimates tackle problems of endogeneity by adopting a variety of techniques, including instrumental variables -for both panel and cross-section analyses- and the two-step efficient dynamics system GMM.

Characterizing the vulnerability of frequent emergency department users by applying a conceptual framework: a controlled, cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Frequent emergency department (ED) users meet several of the criteria of vulnerability, but this needs to be further examined taking into consideration all vulnerability's different dimensions. This study aimed to characterize frequent ED users and to define risk factors of frequent ED use within a universal health care coverage system, applying a conceptual framework of vulnerability. METHODS: A controlled, cross-sectional study comparing frequent ED users to a control group of non-frequent users was conducted at the Lausanne University Hospital, Switzerland. Frequent users were defined as patients with five or more visits to the ED in the previous 12 months. The two groups were compared using validated scales for each one of the five dimensions of an innovative conceptual framework: socio-demographic characteristics; somatic, mental, and risk-behavior indicators; and use of health care services. Independent t-tests, Wilcoxon rank-sum tests, Pearson's Chi-squared test and Fisher's exact test were used for the comparison. To examine the -related to vulnerability- risk factors for being a frequent ED user, univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used. RESULTS: We compared 226 frequent users and 173 controls. Frequent users had more vulnerabilities in all five dimensions of the conceptual framework. They were younger, and more often immigrants from low/middle-income countries or unemployed, had more somatic and psychiatric comorbidities, were more often tobacco users, and had more primary care physician (PCP) visits. The most significant frequent ED use risk factors were a history of more than three hospital admissions in the previous 12 months (adj OR:23.2, 95%CI = 9.1-59.2), the absence of a PCP (adj OR:8.4, 95%CI = 2.1-32.7), living less than 5 km from an ED (adj OR:4.4, 95%CI = 2.1-9.0), and household income lower than USD 2,800/month (adj OR:4.3, 95%CI = 2.0-9.2). CONCLUSIONS: Frequent ED users within a universal health coverage system form a highly vulnerable population, when taking into account all five dimensions of a conceptual framework of vulnerability. The predictive factors identified could be useful in the early detection of future frequent users, in order to address their specific needs and decrease vulnerability, a key priority for health care policy makers. Application of the conceptual framework in future research is warranted.

Forward Looking Banking Stress in EMU Countries

Based on contingent claims analysis, CCA, this paper tries to estimate the systemic risk build-up in the European Economic and Monetary Union, EMU countries using a market based measure distance-to-default, DtD. It analyzes the individual and aggregated series for a comprehensive set of banks in each eurozone country over the period 2004-Q4 to 2013-Q2. Given the structural differences in financial sector and banking regulations at national level, the indices provide a useful indicator for monitoring country specific banking vulnerability and stress. We find that average DtD indicators are intuitive, forward-looking and timely risk indicators. The underlying trend, fluctuations and correlations among indices help us analyze the interdependence while cross-sectional differences in DtD prior to crisis suggest banking sector fragility in peripheral EMU countries.

Industrial emissions abatement: Untangling the impact of the EU ETS and the economic crisis

In this study we use historical emission data from installations under the European Union Emissions Trading System, -EU ETS- to evaluate the impact of this policy on industrial greenhouse gas emissions during the first two trading phases, 2005-2012. As such the analysis seeks to disentangle two causes of emission abatement: that attributable to the EU ETS and that attributable to the economic crisis that hit the EU in 2008/09. Using a panel data approach the estimated emissions reduction attributable to the EU ETS is about 21 per cent of the total emission abatement during the observation period. These results suggest therefore that the lion’s share of abatement was attributable to the effects of the economic crisis, a finding that has serious implications for future policy adjustments affecting core elements of the EU ETS, including the distribution of EU emission allowances.

Prediction of the economic cost of individual long-term care in the Spanish population

Pensions together with savings and investments during active life are key elements of retirement planning. Motivation for personal choices about the standard of living, bequest and the replacement ratio of pension with respect to last salary income must be considered. This research contributes to the financial planning by helping to quantify long-term care economic needs. We estimate life expectancy from retirement age onwards. The economic cost of care per unit of service is linked to the expected time of needed care and the intensity of required services. The expected individual cost of long-term care from an onset of dependence is estimated separately for men and women. Assumptions on the mortality of the dependent people compared to the general population are introduced. Parameters defining eligibility for various forms of coverage by the universal public social care of the welfare system are addressed. The impact of the intensity of social services on individual predictions is assessed, and a partial coverage by standard private insurance products is also explored. Data were collected by the Spanish Institute of Statistics in two surveys conducted on the general Spanish population in 1999 and in 2008. Official mortality records and life table trends were used to create realistic scenarios for longevity. We find empirical evidence that the public long-term care system in Spain effectively mitigates the risk of incurring huge lifetime costs. We also find that the most vulnerable categories are citizens with moderate disabilities that do not qualify to obtain public social care support. In the Spanish case, the trends between 1999 and 2008 need to be further explored.

Economic and social convergence in Colombia

GDP has usually been used as a proxy for human well-being. Nevertheless, other social aspects should also be considered, such as life expectancy, infant mortality, educational enrolment and crime issues. With this paper we investigate not only economic convergence but also social convergence between regions in a developing country, Colombia, in the period 1975-2005. We consider several techniques in our analysis: sigma convergence, stochastic kernel estimations, and also several empirical models to find out the beta convergence parameter (cross section and panel estimates, with and without spatial dependence). The main results confirm that we can talk about convergence in Colombia in key social variables, although not in the classic economic variable, GDP per capita. We have also found that spatial autocorrelation reinforces convergence processes through deepening market and social factors, while isolation condemns regions to nonconvergence.

Economic Methodology: A Historical Introduction.

Ever since the inception of economics over two hundred years ago, the tools at the discipline's disposal have grown more and more more sophisticated. This book provides a historical introduction to the methodology of economics through the eyes of economists. The story begins with John Stuart Mill's seminal essay from 1836 on the definition and method of political economy, which is then followed by an examination of how the actual practices of economists changed over time to such an extent that they not only altered their methods of enquiry, but also their self-perception as economists. Beginning as intellectuals and journalists operating to a large extent in the public sphere, they then transformed into experts who developed their tools of research increasingly behind the scenes. No longer did they try to influence policy agendas through public discourse; rather they targeted policymakers directly and with instruments that showed them as independent and objective policy advisors, the tools of the trade changing all the while. In order to shed light on this evolution of economic methodology, this book takes carefully selected snapshots from the discipline's history. It tracks the process of development through the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, analysing the growth of empirical and mathematical modelling. It also looks at the emergence of the experiment in economics, in addition to the similarities and differences between modelling and experimentation. This book will be relevant reading for students and academics in the fields of economic methodology, history of economics, and history and philosophy of the social sciences.

Questions of Scale in Economic Experiments

Questions of scale have received ample attention in physical scale modeling and experimentation, but have not been discussed with regard to economic experimentation. In this article I distinguish between two kinds of experiments, "generic" and "specific" experiments. Using a comparison between two experimental laboratory studies on the "posted price effect", I then show that scale issues become important in specific laboratory experiments because of the scaling down of time in the target market to laboratory dimensions. This entails choices in the material configuration of the experiment as well as role changes of experimental subjects. My discussion thus adds to recent literature on external validity and on the materiality of experiments.