Industrial emissions abatement: Untangling the impact of the EU ETS and the economic crisis

In this study we use historical emission data from installations under the European Union Emissions Trading System, -EU ETS- to evaluate the impact of this policy on industrial greenhouse gas emissions during the first two trading phases, 2005-2012. As such the analysis seeks to disentangle two causes of emission abatement: that attributable to the EU ETS and that attributable to the economic crisis that hit the EU in 2008/09. Using a panel data approach the estimated emissions reduction attributable to the EU ETS is about 21 per cent of the total emission abatement during the observation period. These results suggest therefore that the lion’s share of abatement was attributable to the effects of the economic crisis, a finding that has serious implications for future policy adjustments affecting core elements of the EU ETS, including the distribution of EU emission allowances.