Principles of Safe Policy Routing Dynamics

We introduce the Dynamic Policy Routing (DPR) model that captures the propagation of route updates under arbitrary changes in topology or path preferences. DPR introduces the notion of causation chains where the route flap at one node causes a flap at the next node along the chain. Using DPR, we model the Gao-Rexford (economic) guidelines that guarantee the safety (i.e., convergence) of policy routing. We establish three principles of safe policy routing dynamics. The non-interference principle provides insight into which ASes can directly induce route changes in one another. The single cycle principle and the multi-tiered cycle principle provide insight into how cycles of routing updates can manifest in any network. We develop INTERFERENCEBEAT, a distributed algorithm that propagates a small token along causation chains to check adherence to these principles. To enhance the diagnosis power of INTERFERENCEBEAT, we model four violations of the Gao-Rexford guidelines (e.g., transiting between peers) and characterize the resulting dynamics.

Neural Models of Motion Integration, Segmentation, and Probablistic Decision-Making

When brain mechanism carry out motion integration and segmentation processes that compute unambiguous global motion percepts from ambiguous local motion signals? Consider, for example, a deer running at variable speeds behind forest cover. The forest cover is an occluder that creates apertures through which fragments of the deer's motion signals are intermittently experienced. The brain coherently groups these fragments into a trackable percept of the deer in its trajectory. Form and motion processes are needed to accomplish this using feedforward and feedback interactions both within and across cortical processing streams. All the cortical areas V1, V2, MT, and MST are involved in these interactions. Figure-ground processes in the form stream through V2, such as the seperation of occluding boundaries of the forest cover from the boundaries of the deer, select the motion signals which determine global object motion percepts in the motion stream through MT. Sparse, but unambiguous, feauture tracking signals are amplified before they propogate across position and are intergrated with far more numerous ambiguous motion signals. Figure-ground and integration processes together determine the global percept. A neural model predicts the processing stages that embody these form and motion interactions. Model concepts and data are summarized about motion grouping across apertures in response to a wide variety of displays, and probabilistic decision making in parietal cortex in response to random dot displays.

Target Selection by Frontal Cortex During Coordinated Saccadic and Smooth Pursuit Eye Movement

Oculomotor tracking of moving objects is an important component of visually based cognition and planning. Such tracking is achieved by a combination of saccades and smooth pursuit eye movements. In particular, the saccadic and smooth pursuit systems interact to often choose the same target, and to maximize its visibility through time. How do multiple brain regions interact, including frontal cortical areas, to decide the choice of a target among several competing moving stimuli? How is target selection information that is created by a bias (e.g., electrical stimulation) transferred from one movement system to another? These saccade-pursuit interactions are clarified by a new computational neural model, which describes interactions among motion processing areas MT, MST, FPA, DLPN; saccade specification, selection, and planning areas LIP, FEF, SNr, SC; the saccadic generator in the brain stem; and the cerebellum. Model simulations explain a broad range of neuroanatomical and neurophysiological data. These results are in contrast with the simplest parallel model with no interactions between saccades and pursuit than common-target selection and recruitment of shared motoneurons. Actual tracking episodes in primates reveal multiple systematic deviations from predictions of the simplest parallel model, which are explained by the current model.

Neural Control of Interlimb Coordination and Gait Timing in Bipeds and Quadrupeds

1) A large body of behavioral data conceming animal and human gaits and gait transitions is simulated as emergent properties of a central pattern generator (CPG) model. The CPG model incorporates neurons obeying Hodgkin-Huxley type dynamics that interact via an on-center off-surround anatomy whose excitatory signals operate on a faster time scale than their inhibitory signals. A descending cornmand or arousal signal called a GO signal activates the gaits and controL their transitions. The GO signal and the CPG model are compared with neural data from globus pallidus and spinal cord, among other brain structures. 2) Data from human bimanual finger coordination tasks are simulated in which anti-phase oscillations at low frequencies spontaneously switch to in-phase oscillations at high frequencies, in-phase oscillations can be performed both at low and high frequencies, phase fluctuations occur at the anti-phase in-phase transition, and a "seagull effect" of larger errors occurs at intermediate phases. When driven by environmental patterns with intermediate phase relationships, the model's output exhibits a tendency to slip toward purely in-phase and anti-phase relationships as observed in humans subjects. 3) Quadruped vertebrate gaits, including the amble, the walk, all three pairwise gaits (trot, pace, and gallop) and the pronk are simulated. Rapid gait transitions are simulated in the order--walk, trot, pace, and gallop--that occurs in the cat, along with the observed increase in oscillation frequency. 4) Precise control of quadruped gait switching is achieved in the model by using GO-dependent modulation of the model's inhibitory interactions. This generates a different functional connectivity in a single CPG at different arousal levels. Such task-specific modulation of functional connectivity in neural pattern generators has been experimentally reported in invertebrates. Phase-dependent modulation of reflex gain has been observed in cats. A role for state-dependent modulation is herein predicted to occur in vertebrates for precise control of phase transitions from one gait to another. 5) The primary human gaits (the walk and the run) and elephant gaits (the amble and the walk) are sirnulated. Although these two gaits are qualitatively different, they both have the same limb order and may exhibit oscillation frequencies that overlap. The CPG model simulates the walk and the run by generating oscillations which exhibit the same phase relationships. but qualitatively different waveform shapes, at different GO signal levels. The fraction of each cycle that activity is above threshold quantitatively distinguishes the two gaits, much as the duty cycles of the feet are longer in the walk than in the run. 6) A key model properly concerns the ability of a single model CPG, that obeys a fixed set of opponent processing equations to generate both in-phase and anti-phase oscillations at different arousal levels. Phase transitions from either in-phase to anti-phase oscillations, or from anti-phase to in-phase oscillations, can occur in different parameter ranges, as the GO signal increases.

A Neural Theory of Visual Search: Recursive Attention to Segmentations and Surfaces

A neural theory is proposed in which visual search is accomplished by perceptual grouping and segregation, which occurs simultaneous across the visual field, and object recognition, which is restricted to a selected region of the field. The theory offers an alternative hypothesis to recently developed variations on Feature Integration Theory (Treisman, and Sato, 1991) and Guided Search Model (Wolfe, Cave, and Franzel, 1989). A neural architecture and search algorithm is specified that quantitatively explains a wide range of psychophysical search data (Wolfe, Cave, and Franzel, 1989; Cohen, and lvry, 1991; Mordkoff, Yantis, and Egeth, 1990; Treisman, and Sato, 1991).

Laminar Cortical Dynamics of Visual Form and Motion Interactions During Coherent Object Motion Perception

How do visual form and motion processes cooperate to compute object motion when each process separately is insufficient? Consider, for example, a deer moving behind a bush. Here the partially occluded fragments of motion signals available to an observer must be coherently grouped into the motion of a single object. A 3D FORMOTION model comprises five important functional interactions involving the brain’s form and motion systems that address such situations. Because the model’s stages are analogous to areas of the primate visual system, we refer to the stages by corresponding anatomical names. In one of these functional interactions, 3D boundary representations, in which figures are separated from their backgrounds, are formed in cortical area V2. These depth-selective V2 boundaries select motion signals at the appropriate depths in MT via V2-to-MT signals. In another, motion signals in MT disambiguate locally incomplete or ambiguous boundary signals in V2 via MT-to-V1-to-V2 feedback. The third functional property concerns resolution of the aperture problem along straight moving contours by propagating the influence of unambiguous motion signals generated at contour terminators or corners. Here, sparse “feature tracking signals” from, e.g., line ends, are amplified to overwhelm numerically superior ambiguous motion signals along line segment interiors. In the fourth, a spatially anisotropic motion grouping process takes place across perceptual space via MT-MST feedback to integrate veridical feature-tracking and ambiguous motion signals to determine a global object motion percept. The fifth property uses the MT-MST feedback loop to convey an attentional priming signal from higher brain areas back to V1 and V2. The model's use of mechanisms such as divisive normalization, endstopping, cross-orientation inhibition, and longrange cooperation is described. Simulated data include: the degree of motion coherence of rotating shapes observed through apertures, the coherent vs. element motion percepts separated in depth during the chopsticks illusion, and the rigid vs. non-rigid appearance of rotating ellipses.

Adaptive Neural Networks for Control of Movement Trajectories Invariant under Speed and Force Rescaling

This article describes two neural network modules that form part of an emerging theory of how adaptive control of goal-directed sensory-motor skills is achieved by humans and other animals. The Vector-Integration-To-Endpoint (VITE) model suggests how synchronous multi-joint trajectories are generated and performed at variable speeds. The Factorization-of-LEngth-and-TEnsion (FLETE) model suggests how outflow movement commands from a VITE model may be performed at variable force levels without a loss of positional accuracy. The invariance of positional control under speed and force rescaling sheds new light upon a familiar strategy of motor skill development: Skill learning begins with performance at low speed and low limb compliance and proceeds to higher speeds and compliances. The VITE model helps to explain many neural and behavioral data about trajectory formation, including data about neural coding within the posterior parietal cortex, motor cortex, and globus pallidus, and behavioral properties such as Woodworth's Law, Fitts Law, peak acceleration as a function of movement amplitude and duration, isotonic arm movement properties before and after arm-deafferentation, central error correction properties of isometric contractions, motor priming without overt action, velocity amplification during target switching, velocity profile invariance across different movement distances, changes in velocity profile asymmetry across different movement durations, staggered onset times for controlling linear trajectories with synchronous offset times, changes in the ratio of maximum to average velocity during discrete versus serial movements, and shared properties of arm and speech articulator movements. The FLETE model provides new insights into how spina-muscular circuits process variable forces without a loss of positional control. These results explicate the size principle of motor neuron recruitment, descending co-contractive compliance signals, Renshaw cells, Ia interneurons, fast automatic reactive control by ascending feedback from muscle spindles, slow adaptive predictive control via cerebellar learning using muscle spindle error signals to train adaptive movement gains, fractured somatotopy in the opponent organization of cerebellar learning, adaptive compensation for variable moment-arms, and force feedback from Golgi tendon organs. More generally, the models provide a computational rationale for the use of nonspecific control signals in volitional control, or "acts of will", and of efference copies and opponent processing in both reactive and adaptive motor control tasks.

A Spectral Network Model of Pitch Perception

A model of pitch perception, called the Spatial Pitch Network or SPINET model, is developed and analyzed. The model neurally instantiates ideas front the spectral pitch modeling literature and joins them to basic neural network signal processing designs to simulate a broader range of perceptual pitch data than previous spectral models. The components of the model arc interpreted as peripheral mechanical and neural processing stages, which arc capable of being incorporated into a larger network architecture for separating multiple sound sources in the environment. The core of the new model transforms a spectral representation of an acoustic source into a spatial distribution of pitch strengths. The SPINET model uses a weighted "harmonic sieve" whereby the strength of activation of a given pitch depends upon a weighted sum of narrow regions around the harmonics of the nominal pitch value, and higher harmonics contribute less to a pitch than lower ones. Suitably chosen harmonic weighting functions enable computer simulations of pitch perception data involving mistuned components, shifted harmonics, and various types of continuous spectra including rippled noise. It is shown how the weighting functions produce the dominance region, how they lead to octave shifts of pitch in response to ambiguous stimuli, and how they lead to a pitch region in response to the octave-spaced Shepard tone complexes and Deutsch tritones without the use of attentional mechanisms to limit pitch choices. An on-center off-surround network in the model helps to produce noise suppression, partial masking and edge pitch. Finally, it is shown how peripheral filtering and short term energy measurements produce a model pitch estimate that is sensitive to certain component phase relationships.

Cellular and in-vitro models to assess antioxidant activities of seaweed extracts and the potential use of the extracts as ingredients

Seaweeds contain a range of antioxidant compounds such as polyphenols, carotenoids, sulphated polysaccharides and vitamins and have the potential to be used as ingredients in neutraceuticals. The antioxidant activity of crude 60% methanol extracts prepared from five Irish seaweeds, Ascophyllum nodosum, Laminaria hyperborea, Pelvetia canaliculata, Fucus vesiculosus and Fucus serratus were examined using in-vitro assays and a cell model system to determine the antioxidant activity of the extracts and their ability to protect against H2O2 and tert-BOOH-induced DNA damage and alterations in cellular antioxidant status in the human adenocarcinoma, Caco-2 cell line. To optimise the extraction of antioxidant compounds from seaweeds, an accelerated solvent extraction (ASE®) was used in combination with food grade solvents. The antioxidant activity of these extracts against H2O2 and tert-BOOH-induced DNA damage and alterations in cellular antioxidant status was also assessed. Extracts that exhibited the highest antioxidant activity, A. nodosum (100% water and 80% ethanol extracts) and F. vesiculosus (60% ethanol extract) were selected as ingredients for incorporation into fluid milk and yogurt at concentrations of 0.25% and 0.5%. The addition of the seaweed extracts to milk and yogurt did not affect the pH or shelf-life properties of the products. Seaweed addition did however significantly influence the colour properties of the milk and yogurt. Yellowness values were significantly higher in yogurts containing F. vesiculosus at both concentrations and A. nodosum (80% ethanol) at the 0.5% concentration. In milk, the F. vesiculosus (60% ethanol) and A. nodosum (80% ethanol) at both the 0.25% and the 0.5% concentrations had higher greenness and yellowness values than the milk containing A. nodosum (100% water). Sensory analysis revealed that appearance and flavour governed the overall acceptability of yogurts with the control yogurt, and yogurts containing A. nodosum (100% water) were the most preferred samples by panellists. However, in the milk trial the perception of a fishy taste was the determining factor in the negative perception of milk. The unsupplemented control and the milk containing A. nodosum (100% water) at a concentration of 0.5% were the most overall accepted milk samples by the sensory panellists. The antioxidant activity of the extracts in milk and yogurt remained stable during storage as determined by the in-vitro assays. Seaweed supplemented milk and yogurt were also subjected to an in-vitro digestion procedure which mimics the human digestive system. The milk and yogurt samples and their digestates were added to Caco-2 cells to investigate their antioxidant potential however neither the undigested or digested samples protected against H2O2-induced DNA damage in Caco-2 cells.

Development of a general internet attitude scale and internet self-efficacy scale

The measurement of users’ attitudes towards and confidence with using the Internet is an important yet poorly researched topic. Previous research has encountered issues that serve to obfuscate rather than clarify. Such issues include a lack of distinction between the terms ‘attitude’ and ‘self-efficacy’, the absence of a theoretical framework to measure each concept, and failure to follow well-established techniques for the measurement of both attitude and self-efficacy. Thus, the primary aim of this research was to develop two statistically reliable scales which independently measure attitudes towards the Internet and Internet self-efficacy. This research addressed the outlined issues by applying appropriate theoretical frameworks to each of the constructs under investigation. First, the well-known three component (affect, behaviour, cognition) model of attitudes was applied to previous Internet attitude statements. The scale was distributed to four large samples of participants. Exploratory factor analyses revealed four underlying factors in the scale: Internet Affect, Internet Exhilaration, Social Benefit of the Internet and Internet Detriment. The final scale contains 21 items, demonstrates excellent reliability and achieved excellent model fit in the confirmatory factor analysis. Second, Bandura’s (1997) model of self-efficacy was followed to develop a reliable measure of Internet self-efficacy. Data collected as part of this research suggests that there are ten main activities which individuals can carry out on the Internet. Preliminary analyses suggested that self-efficacy is confounded with previous experience; thus, individuals were invited to indicate how frequently they performed the listed Internet tasks in addition to rating their feelings of self-efficacy for each task. The scale was distributed to a sample of 841 participants. Results from the analyses suggest that the more frequently an individual performs an activity on the Internet, the higher their self-efficacy score for that activity. This suggests that frequency of use ought to be taken into account in individual’s self-efficacy scores to obtain a ‘true’ self-efficacy score for the individual. Thus, a formula was devised to incorporate participants’ previous experience of Internet tasks in their Internet self-efficacy scores. This formula was then used to obtain an overall Internet self-efficacy score for participants. Following the development of both scales, gender and age differences were explored in Internet attitudes and Internet self-efficacy scores. The analyses indicated that there were no gender differences between groups for Internet attitude or Internet self-efficacy scores. However, age group differences were identified for both attitudes and self-efficacy. Individuals aged 25-34 years achieved the highest scores on both the Internet attitude and Internet self-efficacy measures. Internet attitude and self-efficacy scores tended to decrease with age with older participants achieving lower scores on both measures than younger participants. It was also found that the more exposure individuals had to the Internet, the higher their Internet attitude and Internet self-efficacy scores. Examination of the relationship between attitude and self-efficacy found a significantly positive relationship between the two measures suggesting that the two constructs are related. Implication of such findings and directions for future research are outlined in detail in the Discussion section of this thesis.

Molecular analysis of inflammatory mechanisms associated with Escherichia coli and inflammatory bowel diseases

Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD), encompasses a range of chronic, immune-mediated inflammatory disorders that are usually classified under two major relapsing conditions, Crohn’s Disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). Extensive studies in the last decades have suggested that the etiology of IBD involves environmental and genetic factors that lead to dysfunction of epithelial barrier with consequent deregulation of the mucosal immune system and inadequate responses to gut microbiota.Over the last decade, the microbial species that has attracted the most attention, with respect to CD etiology, is Eschericia coli. In CD tissue, E. coli antigens have also been identified in macrophages within the lamina propria, granulomas, and in the germinal centres of mesenteric lymph nodes of patients. They have been shown to adhere to and invade intestinal epithelial cells whilst also being able to extensively replicate within macrophages. Through the work of genome-wide association studies (GWAS), there is growing evidence to suggest that the microbial imbalance between commensal and pathogenic bacteria in the gut is aided by a defect in the innate immune system. Autophagy represents a recently investigated pathway that is believed to contribute to the pathogenesis of CD, with studies identified a variant of the autophagy gene, ATG16L1, as a susceptibility gene. The aim of my thesis was to study the cellular and molecular mechanism promoted by E.coli strains in epithelial cells and to assess their contribution to IBD pathology. To achieve this we focused on developing both an in vitro and in vivo model of AIEC infection. This allowed us to further our knowledge on possible mechanisms utilised by AIEC that promoted their survival, as well as developing a better understanding of host reactions. We demonstrate a new survival mechanism promoted by E.coli HM605, whereby it induces the expression of the anti-apoptotic proteins Bcl-XL and BCL2, all of which is exacerbated in an autophagy deficient system. We have also demonstrated the presence of AIEC-induced inflammasome responses in epithelial cells which are exacerbated in an autophagy deficient system and expression of NOD-like receptors (NLRs) which might mediate inflammasome responses in vivo. Finally, we used the Citrobacter rodentium model of infectious colitis to identify Pellino3 as an important mediator in the NOD2 pathway and regulator of intestinal inflammation. In summary, we have developed robust and versatile models of AIEC infection as well as provide new insights into AIEC mediated survival pathways. The collected data provides a new perception into why AIEC bacteria are able to prosper in conditions associated with Crohn’s disease patients with a defect in autophagy.

Stochastic E2F activation and reconciliation of phenomenological cell-cycle models.

The transition of the mammalian cell from quiescence to proliferation is a highly variable process. Over the last four decades, two lines of apparently contradictory, phenomenological models have been proposed to account for such temporal variability. These include various forms of the transition probability (TP) model and the growth control (GC) model, which lack mechanistic details. The GC model was further proposed as an alternative explanation for the concept of the restriction point, which we recently demonstrated as being controlled by a bistable Rb-E2F switch. Here, through a combination of modeling and experiments, we show that these different lines of models in essence reflect different aspects of stochastic dynamics in cell cycle entry. In particular, we show that the variable activation of E2F can be described by stochastic activation of the bistable Rb-E2F switch, which in turn may account for the temporal variability in cell cycle entry. Moreover, we show that temporal dynamics of E2F activation can be recast into the frameworks of both the TP model and the GC model via parameter mapping. This mapping suggests that the two lines of phenomenological models can be reconciled through the stochastic dynamics of the Rb-E2F switch. It also suggests a potential utility of the TP or GC models in defining concise, quantitative phenotypes of cell physiology. This may have implications in classifying cell types or states.

Bacteria localization and chorion thinning among preterm premature rupture of membranes.

OBJECTIVE: Bacterial colonization of the fetal membranes and its role in pathogenesis of membrane rupture is poorly understood. Prior retrospective work revealed chorion layer thinning in preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM) subjects. Our objective was to prospectively examine fetal membrane chorion thinning and to correlate to bacterial presence in PPROM, preterm, and term subjects. STUDY DESIGN: Paired membrane samples (membrane rupture and membrane distant) were prospectively collected from: PPROM = 14, preterm labor (PTL = 8), preterm no labor (PTNL = 8), term labor (TL = 10), and term no labor (TNL = 8), subjects. Sections were probed with cytokeratin to identify fetal trophoblast layer of the chorion using immunohistochemistry. Fluorescence in situ hybridization was performed using broad range 16 s ribosomal RNA probe. Images were evaluated, chorion and choriodecidua were measured, and bacterial fluorescence scored. Chorion thinning and bacterial presence were compared among and between groups using Student's t-test, linear mixed effect model, and Poisson regression model (SAS Cary, NC). RESULTS: In all groups, the fetal chorion cellular layer was thinner at rupture compared to distant site (147.2 vs. 253.7 µm, p<0.0001). Further, chorion thinning was greatest among PPROM subjects compared to all other groups combined, regardless of site sampled [PPROM(114.9) vs. PTL(246.0) vs. PTNL(200.8) vs. TL(217.9) vs. TNL(246.5)]. Bacteria counts were highest among PPROM subjects compared to all other groups regardless of site sampled or histologic infection [PPROM(31) vs. PTL(9) vs. PTNL(7) vs. TL(7) vs. TNL(6)]. Among all subjects at both sites, bacterial counts were inversely correlated with chorion thinning, even excluding histologic chorioamnionitis (p<0.0001 and p = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Fetal chorion was uniformly thinner at rupture site compared to distant sites. In PPROM fetal chorion, we demonstrated pronounced global thinning. Although cause or consequence is uncertain, bacterial presence is greatest and inversely correlated with chorion thinning among PPROM subjects.

Contribution of the North Atlantic subtropical high to regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating southeastern United States summer precipitation

© 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.This study assesses the skill of advanced regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating southeastern United States (SE US) summer precipitation and explores the physical mechanisms responsible for the simulation skill at a process level. Analysis of the RCM output for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program indicates that the RCM simulations of summer precipitation show the largest biases and a remarkable spread over the SE US compared to other regions in the contiguous US. The causes of such a spread are investigated by performing simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a next-generation RCM developed by the US National Center for Atmospheric Research. The results show that the simulated biases in SE US summer precipitation are due mainly to the misrepresentation of the modeled North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) western ridge. In the WRF simulations, the NASH western ridge shifts 7° northwestward when compared to that in the reanalysis ensemble, leading to a dry bias in the simulated summer precipitation according to the relationship between the NASH western ridge and summer precipitation over the southeast. Experiments utilizing the four dimensional data assimilation technique further suggest that the improved representation of the circulation patterns (i.e., wind fields) associated with the NASH western ridge substantially reduces the bias in the simulated SE US summer precipitation. Our analysis of circulation dynamics indicates that the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations is significantly influenced by the simulated planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes over the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, a decrease (increase) in the simulated PBL height tends to stabilize (destabilize) the lower troposphere over the Gulf of Mexico, and thus inhibits (favors) the onset and/or development of convection. Such changes in tropical convection induce a tropical–extratropical teleconnection pattern, which modulates the circulation along the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations and contributes to the modeled precipitation biases over the SE US. In conclusion, our study demonstrates that the NASH western ridge is an important factor responsible for the RCM skill in simulating SE US summer precipitation. Furthermore, the improvements in the PBL parameterizations for the Gulf of Mexico might help advance RCM skill in representing the NASH western ridge circulation and summer precipitation over the SE US.

Impacts of land use change and climate variations on annual inflow into Miyun Reservoir,Beijing, China

The Miyun Reservoir, the only surface water source for Beijing city, has experienced water supply decline in recent decades. Previous studies suggest that both land use change and climate contribute to the changes of water supply in this critical watershed. However, the specific causes of the decline in the Miyun Reservoir are debatable under a non-stationary climate in the past 4 decades. The central objective of this study was to quantify the separate and collective contributions of land use change and climate variability to the decreasing inflow into the Miyun Reservoir during 1961–2008. Different from previous studies on this watershed, we used a comprehensive approach to quantify the timing of changes in hydrology and associated environmental variables using the long-term historical hydrometeorology and remote-sensing-based land use records. To effectively quantify the different impacts of the climate variation and land use change on streamflow during different sub-periods, an annual water balance model (AWB), the climate elasticity model (CEM), and a rainfall–runoff model (RRM) were employed to conduct attribution analysis synthetically. We found a significant (p  <  0.01) decrease in annual streamflow, a significant positive trend in annual potential evapotranspiration (p  <  0.01), and an insignificant (p  >  0.1) negative trend in annual precipitation during 1961–2008. We identified two streamflow breakpoints, 1983 and 1999, by the sequential Mann–Kendall test and double-mass curve. Climate variability alone did not explain the decrease in inflow to the Miyun Reservoir. Reduction of water yield was closely related to increase in actual evapotranspiration due to the expansion of forestland and reduction in cropland and grassland, and was likely exacerbated by increased water consumption for domestic and industrial uses in the basin. The contribution to the observed streamflow decline from land use change fell from 64–92 % during 1984–1999 to 36–58 % during 2000–2008, whereas the contribution from climate variation climbed from 8–36 % during the 1984–1999 to 42–64 % during 2000–2008. Model uncertainty analysis further demonstrated that climate warming played a dominant role in streamflow reduction in the most recent decade (i.e., 2000s). We conclude that future climate change and variability will further challenge the water supply capacity of the Miyun Reservoir to meet water demand. A comprehensive watershed management strategy needs to consider the climate variations besides vegetation management in the study basin.