Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby petrogale penicillata

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.

Required hours of practice for learner drivers : a comparison between two Australian jurisdictions

Problem: This study considers whether requiring learner drivers to complete a set number of hours while on a learner licence affects the amount of hours of supervised practice that they undertake. It compares the amount of practice that learners in Queensland and New South Wales report undertaking. At the time the study was conducted, learner drivers in New South Wales were required to complete 50 hours of supervised practice while those from Queensland were not. Method: Participants were approached outside driver licensing centres after they had just completed their practical driving test to obtain their provisional (intermediate) licence. Those agreeing to participate were interviewed over the phone later and asked a range of questions to obtain information including socio-demographic details and amount of supervised practice completed. Results: There was a significant difference in the amount of practice that learners reported undertaking. Participants from New South Wales reported completing a significantly greater amount of practice (M = 73.3 hours, sd = 29.12 hours) on their learner licence than those from Queensland (M = 64.1 hours, sd = 51.05 hours). However, the distribution of hours of practice among the Queensland participants was bimodal in nature. Participants from Queensland reported either completing much less or much more practice than the New South Wales average. Summary: While it appears that the requirement that learner drivers complete a set number of hours may increase the average amount of hours of practice obtained, it may also serve to discourage drivers from obtaining additional practice, over and above the required hours. Impact on Industry: The results of this study suggest that the implications of requiring learner drivers to complete a set number of hours of supervised practice are complex. In some cases, policy makers may inadvertently limit the amount of hours learners obtain to the mandated amount rather than encouraging them to obtain as much practice as possible.

Three-dimensional hydrogen-bonded structures in the 1:1 proton-transfer compounds of L-tartaric acid with the associative-group monosubstituted pyridines 3-minopyridine, 3-carboxypyridine (nicotinic acid) and 2-carboxypyridine (picolinic acid).

The 1:1 proton-transfer compounds of L-tartaric acid with 3-aminopyridine [3-aminopyridinium hydrogen (2R,3R)-tartrate dihydrate, C5H7N2+·C4H5O6-·2H2O, (I)], pyridine-3-carboxylic acid (nicotinic acid) [anhydrous 3-carboxypyridinium hydrogen (2R,3R)-tartrate, C6H6NO2+·C4H5O6-, (II)] and pyridine-2-carboxylic acid [2-carboxypyridinium hydrogen (2R,3R)-tartrate monohydrate, C6H6NO2+·C4H5O6-·H2O, (III)] have been determined. In (I) and (II), there is a direct pyridinium-carboxyl N+-HO hydrogen-bonding interaction, four-centred in (II), giving conjoint cyclic R12(5) associations. In contrast, the N-HO association in (III) is with a water O-atom acceptor, which provides links to separate tartrate anions through Ohydroxy acceptors. All three compounds have the head-to-tail C(7) hydrogen-bonded chain substructures commonly associated with 1:1 proton-transfer hydrogen tartrate salts. These chains are extended into two-dimensional sheets which, in hydrates (I) and (III) additionally involve the solvent water molecules. Three-dimensional hydrogen-bonded structures are generated via crosslinking through the associative functional groups of the substituted pyridinium cations. In the sheet struture of (I), both water molecules act as donors and acceptors in interactions with separate carboxyl and hydroxy O-atom acceptors of the primary tartrate chains, closing conjoint cyclic R44(8), R34(11) and R33(12) associations. Also, in (II) and (III) there are strong cation carboxyl-carboxyl O-HO hydrogen bonds [OO = 2.5387 (17) Å in (II) and 2.441 (3) Å in (III)], which in (II) form part of a cyclic R22(6) inter-sheet association. This series of heteroaromatic Lewis base-hydrogen L-tartrate salts provides further examples of molecular assembly facilitated by the presence of the classical two-dimensional hydrogen-bonded hydrogen tartrate or hydrogen tartrate-water sheet substructures which are expanded into three-dimensional frameworks via peripheral cation bifunctional substituent-group crosslinking interactions.

Comparison of high-speed videokeratoscopy and ultrasound distance sensing for measuring the longitudinal corneal apex movements

Two different methods to measure binocular longitudinal corneal apex movements were synchronously applied. High-speed videokeratoscopy at a sampling frequency of 15 Hz and a customdesigned ultrasound distance sensor at 100 Hz were used for the left and the right eye, respectively. Four healthy subjects participated in the study. Simultaneously, cardiac electric cycle (ECG) was registered for each subject at 100 Hz. Each measurement took 20 s. Subjects were asked to suppress blinking during the measurements. A rigid headrest and a bite-bar were used to minimize undesirable head movements. Time, frequency and time-frequency representations of the acquired signals were obtained to establish their temporal and spectral contents. Coherence analysis was used to estimate the correlation between the measured signals. The results showed close correlation between both corneal apex movements and the cardiopulmonary system. Unraveling these relationships could lead to better understanding of interactions between ocular biomechanics and vision. The advantages and disadvantages of the two methods in the context of measuring longitudinal movements of the corneal apex are outlined.

Determining the zone of reflection for posterior corneal surface comparison phakometry

Although comparison phakometry has been used by a number of studies to measure posterior corneal shape, these studies have not calculated the size of the posterior corneal zones of reflection they assessed. This paper develops paraxial equations for calculating posterior corneal zones of reflection, based on standard keratometry equations and equivalent mirror theory. For targets used in previous studies, posterior corneal reflection zone sizes were calculated using paraxial equations and using exact ray tracing, assuming spherical and aspheric corneal surfaces. Paraxial methods and exact ray tracing methods give similar estimates for reflection zone sizes less than 2 mm, but for larger zone sizes ray tracing methods should be used.

Strategies for comparing decimal numbers with the same whole-number part

The strategies employed by 130 Grade 5 Brisbane students in comparing decimal numbers which have the same whole-number part were compared with those identified in similar studies conducted in the USA, France and Israel. Three new strategies were identified. Similar to USA results, the most common comparison errors stemmed from the incorrect whole-number strategy in which length is confused with size. The findings of this present study tend to support Resnick et al.’s (1989) hypothesis that the introduction of decimal-fraction recording before common-fraction recording seems to promote better comparison of decimal numbers.

A comparison of different methods to determine diffusion length in dye-sensitized solar cells

A new steady state method for determination of the electron diffusion length in dye-sensitized solar cells (DSCs) is described and illustrated with data obtained using cells containing three different types of electrolyte. The method is based on using near-IR absorbance methods to establish pairs of illumination intensity for which the total number of trapped electrons is the same at open circuit (where all electrons are lost by interfacial electron transfer) as at short circuit (where the majority of electrons are collected at the contact). Electron diffusion length values obtained by this method are compared with values derived by intensity modulated methods and by impedance measurements under illumination. The results indicate that the values of electron diffusion length derived from the steady state measurements are consistently lower than the values obtained by the non steady-state methods. For all three electrolytes used in the study, the electron diffusion length was sufficiently high to guarantee electron collection efficiencies greater than 90%. Measurement of the trap distributions by near-IR absorption confirmed earlier observations of much higher electron trap densities for electrolytes containing Li+ ions. It is suggested that the electron trap distributions may not be intrinsic properties of the TiO2 nanoparticles, but may be associated with electron-ion interactions.

Public Perceptions of Elections: An Australia-New Zealand Comparison

his collection of essays honouring the late Emeritus Keith Jackson addresses the public interest in New Zealand. This subject is of increasing importance at a time when politicians are grappling with serious issues that call into question the boundaries between the private and public spheres. The essays, by leading scholars and acknowledged experts in their field, reflect Keith's own preoccupations with institutional politics and with communication

A comparison of executive function in very preterm and term infants at 8 months corrected age

Executive function (EF) emerges in infancy and continues to develop throughout childhood. Executive dysfunction is believed to contribute to learning and attention problems in children at school age. Children born very preterm are more prone to these problems than their full-term peers.

Identifying work related injuries : comparison of methods for interrogating text fields

Background: Work-related injuries in Australia are estimated to cost around $57.5 billion annually, however there are currently insufficient surveillance data available to support an evidence-based public health response. Emergency departments (ED) in Australia are a potential source of information on work-related injuries though most ED’s do not have an ‘Activity Code’ to identify work-related cases with information about the presenting problem recorded in a short free text field. This study compared methods for interrogating text fields for identifying work-related injuries presenting at emergency departments to inform approaches to surveillance of work-related injury.---------- Methods: Three approaches were used to interrogate an injury description text field to classify cases as work-related: keyword search, index search, and content analytic text mining. Sensitivity and specificity were examined by comparing cases flagged by each approach to cases coded with an Activity code during triage. Methods to improve the sensitivity and/or specificity of each approach were explored by adjusting the classification techniques within each broad approach.---------- Results: The basic keyword search detected 58% of cases (Specificity 0.99), an index search detected 62% of cases (Specificity 0.87), and the content analytic text mining (using adjusted probabilities) approach detected 77% of cases (Specificity 0.95).---------- Conclusions The findings of this study provide strong support for continued development of text searching methods to obtain information from routine emergency department data, to improve the capacity for comprehensive injury surveillance.

A comparison of two business cycle dating methods

We study the suggestion that Markov switching (MS) models should be used to determine cyclical turning points. A Kalman filter approximation is used to derive the dating rules implicit in such models. We compare these with dating rules in an algorithm that provides a good approximation to the chronology determined by the NBER. We find that there is very little that is attractive in the MS approach when compared with this algorithm. The most important difference relates to robustness. The MS approach depends on the validity of that statistical model. Our approach is valid in a wider range of circumstances.