An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Energy and Health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago

This report analyses the agriculture, energy, and health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Trinidad and Tobago. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The study of the impact of climate change on the agriculture sector focused on root crops, green vegetables and fisheries. For these sectors combined, the cumulative loss under the A2 scenario is calculated as approximately B$2.24 and approximately B$1.72 under the B2 scenario by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Given the potential for significant damage to the agriculture sector a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 10 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. All of the adaptation strategies showed positive benefits. The analysis indicate that the options with the highest net benefits are: (1) Building on-farm water storage, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Using drip irrigation. Other attractive options include water harvesting. The policy decisions by governments should include these assessments, the omitted intangible benefits, as well as the provision of other social goals such as employment. The analysis of the energy sector has shown that the economic impact of climate change during 2011-2050 is similar under the A2 (US$142.88 million) and B2 (US$134.83 million) scenarios with A2 scenario having a slightly higher cost (0.737% of 2009 GDP) than the B2 scenario (0.695% of 2009 GDP) for the period. On the supply side, analyses indicate that Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector will be susceptible to the climate change policies of major energy-importing countries (the United States of America and China), and especially to their renewable energy strategies. Implementation of foreign oil substitution policy by the United States of America will result in a decline in Trinidad and Tobago’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export (equivalent to 2.2% reduction in 2009 GDP) unless an alternative market is secured for the lost United States of America market. China, with its rapid economic growth and the highest population in the world, offers a potential replacement market for Trinidad and Tobago’s LNG export. In this context the A2 scenario will offer the best option for Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector. The cost-benefit analysis undertaken on selected adaptation strategies reveal that the benefit-cost ratio of replacing electric water heaters with solar water heaters is the most cost-effective. It was also found that the introduction of Compact Fluorescent Light (CFL) and Variable Refrigerant Volume (VRV) air conditioners surpasses the projected cost of increased electricity consumption due to climate change, and provides an economic rationale for the adoption of these adaptation options even in a situation of increased electricity consumption occasioned by climate change. Finally, the conversion of motor fleets to Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) is a cost-effective adaptation option for the transport sector, although it has a high initial cost of implementation and the highest per capita among the four adaptation options evaluated. To investigate the effect of climate change on the health sector dengue fever, leptospirosis, food borne illnesses, and gastroenteritis were examined. The total number of new dengue cases for the period 2008 to 2050 was 204,786 for BAU, 153,725 for A2 and 131,890 for the B2 scenario. With regard to the results for leptospirosis, A2 and B2 seem to be following a similar path with total number of new cases in the A2 scenario being 9,727 and 9,218 cases under the B2 scenario. Although incidence levels in the BAU scenario coincided with those of A2 and B2 prior to 2020, they are somewhat lower post 2020. A similar picture emerges for the scenarios as they relate to food-borne illnesses and to gastroenteritis. Specifically for food-borne illnesses, the BAU scenario recorded 27,537 cases, the A2 recorded 28,568 cases and the B2 recorded 28,679 cases. The focus on the selected sources of morbidity in the health sector has highlighted the fact that the vulnerability of the country’s health sector to climate change does not depend solely on exogenously derived impacts, but also on the behaviour and practices among the population. It is clear that the vulnerability which became evident in the analysis of the impacts on dengue fever, leptospirosis and food-borne illnesses is not restricted solely to climate or other external factors. The most important adaptation strategy being recommended targets lifestyle, behaviour and attitude changes. The population needs to be encouraged to alter their behaviours and practices so as to minimise their exposure to harmful outcomes as it relates to the incidence of these diseases.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in the Turks and Caicos Islands

The best description of water resources for Grand Turk was offered by Pérez Monteagudo (2000) who suggested that rain water was insufficient to ensure a regular water supply although water catchment was being practised and water catchment possibilities had been analysed. Limestone islands, mostly flat and low lying, have few possibilities for large scale surface storage, and groundwater lenses exist in very delicate equilibrium with saline seawater, and are highly likely to collapse due to sea level rise, improper extraction, drought, tidal waves or other extreme event. A study on the impact of climate change on water resources in the Turks and Caicos Islands is a challenging task, due to the fact that the territory of the Islands covers different environmental resources and conditions, and accurate data are lacking. The present report is based on collected data wherever possible, including grey data from several sources such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Cuban meteorological service data sets. Other data were also used, including the author’s own estimates and modelling results. Although challenging, this was perhaps the best approach towards analysing the situation. Furthermore, IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios were used in the present study in an effort to reduce uncertainty. The main conclusion from the scenario approach is that the trend observed in precipitation during the period 1961 - 1990 is decreasing. Similar behaviour was observed in the Caribbean region. This trend is associated with meteorological causes, particularly with the influence of the North Atlantic Anticyclone. The annual decrease in precipitation is estimated to be between 30-40% with uncertain impacts on marine resources. After an assessment of fresh water resources in Turks and Caicos Islands, the next step was to estimate residential water demand based on a high fertility rate scenario for the Islands (one selected from four scenarios and compared to countries having similar characteristics). The selected scenario presents higher projections on consumption growth, enabling better preparation for growing water demand. Water demand by tourists (stopover and excursionists, mainly cruise passengers) was also obtained, based on international daily consumption estimates. Tourism demand forecasts for Turks and Caicos Islands encompass the forty years between 2011 and 2050 and were obtained by means of an Artificial Neural Networks approach. for the A2 and B2 scenarios, resulting in the relation BAU>B2>A2 in terms of tourist arrivals and water demand levels from tourism. Adaptation options and policies were analysed. Resolving the issue of the best technology to be used for Turks and Caicos Islands is not directly related to climate change. Total estimated water storage capacity is about 1, 270, 800 m3/ year with 80% capacity load for three plants. However, almost 11 desalination plants have been detected on Turks and Caicos Islands. Without more data, it is not possible to estimate long term investment to match possible water demand and more complex adaptation options. One climate change adaptation option would be the construction of elevated (30 metres or higher) storm resistant water reservoirs. The unit cost of the storage capacity is the sum of capital costs and operational and maintenance costs. Electricity costs to pump water are optional as water should, and could, be stored for several months. The costs arising for water storage are in the range of US$ 0.22 cents/m3 without electricity costs. Pérez Monteagudo (2000) estimated water prices at around US$ 2.64/m3 in stand points, US$ 7.92 /m3 for government offices, and US$ 13.2 /m3for cistern truck vehicles. These data need to be updated. As Turks and Caicos Islands continues to depend on tourism and Reverse Osmosis (RO) for obtaining fresh water, an unavoidable condition to maintaining and increasing gross domestic product(GDP) and population welfare, dependence on fossil fuels and vulnerability to increasingly volatile prices will constitute an important restriction. In this sense, mitigation supposes a synergy with adaptation. Energy demand and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) were also estimated using an emissions factor of 2. 6 tCO2/ tonne of oil equivalent (toe). Assuming a population of 33,000 inhabitants, primary energy demand was estimated for Turks and Caicos Islands at 110,000 toe with electricity demand of around 110 GWh. The business as usual (BAU), as well as the mitigation scenarios were estimated. The BAU scenario suggests that energy use should be supported by imported fossil fuels with important improvements in energy efficiency. The mitigation scenario explores the use of photovoltaic and concentrating solar power, and wind energy. As this is a preliminary study, the local potential and locations need to be identified to provide more relevant estimates. Macroeconomic assumptions are the same for both scenarios. By 2050, Turks and Caicos Islands could demand 60 m toe less than for the BAU scenario.

Investigation of the Effect of Sealer Use on the Heat Generated at the External Root Surface during Root Canal Obturation Using Warm Vertical Compaction Technique with System B Heat Source

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The time course of aggressive behaviour in juvenile matrinxa Brycon amazonicus fed with dietary L-tryptophan supplementation

This study evaluated the influence of dietary L-tryptophan (TRP) supplementation on the time course of aggressive behaviour and on neuroendocrine and hormonal indicators in juvenile matrinxA Brycon amazonicus. Supplementation with TRP promoted a change in the fight pattern at the beginning of an interaction with an intruder, resulting in decreased aggressive behaviours during the first 20min. The decrease in aggression did not persist throughout the interaction but increased at 3 and 6h after the beginning of the fight. Monoamine levels in the hypothalamus were not influenced by TRP before or after the fight; however, the hypothalamic serotonin (5-HT) concentration and the 5-hydroxyindole-3-acetic acid (5HIAA):5-HT ratio were significantly correlated with the reduction in aggressive behaviour at the beginning of the fight. Cortisol was not altered by TRP before the fight. After the fight cortisol increased to higher levels in B. amazonicus fed with supplementary TRP. These results indicate that TRP supplementation alters the aggressive behaviour of B. amazonicus and that this effect is limited to the beginning of the fight, suggesting a transient effect of TRP on aggressive behaviour. This is the first study reporting the effects of TRP supplementation on the time course of aggressive interaction in fishes. (C) 2013 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles

Air versus saline in the loss of resistance technique for identification of the epidural space

BackgroundThe success of epidural anaesthesia depends on correct identification of the epidural space. For several decades, the decision of whether to use air or physiological saline during the loss of resistance technique for identification of the epidural space has been governed by the personal experience of the anaesthesiologist. Epidural block remains one of the main regional anaesthesia techniques. It is used for surgical anaesthesia, obstetrical analgesia, postoperative analgesia and treatment of chronic pain and as a complement to general anaesthesia. The sensation felt by the anaesthesiologist from the syringe plunger with loss of resistance is different when air is compared with saline (fluid). Frequently fluid allows a rapid change from resistance to non-resistance and increased movement of the plunger. However, the ideal technique for identification of the epidural space remains unclear.ObjectivesTo evaluate the efficacy and safety of both air and saline in the loss of resistance technique for identification of the epidural space.To evaluate complications related to the air or saline injected.Search methodsWe searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (2013, Issue 9), MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Latin American and Caribbean Health Science Information Database (LILACS) (from inception to September 2013). We applied no language restrictions. The date of the most recent search was 7 September 2013.Selection criteriaWe included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-randomized controlled trials (quasi-RCTs) on air and saline in the loss of resistance technique for identification of the epidural space.Data collection and analysisTwo review authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data.Main resultsWe included in the review seven studies with a total of 852 participants. The methodological quality of the included studies was generally ranked as showing low risk of bias inmost domains, with the exception of one study, which did not mask participants. We were able to include data from 838 participants in the meta-analysis. We found no statistically significant differences between participants receiving air and those given saline in any of the outcomes evaluated: inability to locate the epidural space (three trials, 619 participants) (risk ratio (RR) 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.33 to 2.31, low-quality evidence); accidental intravascular catheter placement (two trials, 223 participants) (RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.33 to 2.45, low-quality evidence); accidental subarachnoid catheter placement (four trials, 682 participants) (RR 2.95, 95% CI 0.12 to 71.90, low-quality evidence); combined spinal epidural failure (two trials, 400 participants) (RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.44 to 2.18, low-quality evidence); unblocked segments (five studies, 423 participants) (RR 1.66, 95% CI 0.72 to 3.85); and pain measured by VAS (two studies, 395 participants) (mean difference (MD) -0.09, 95% CI -0.37 to 0.18). With regard to adverse effects, we found no statistically significant differences between participants receiving air and those given saline in the occurrence of paraesthesias (three trials, 572 participants) (RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.69 to 1.15); difficulty in advancing the catheter (two trials, 227 participants) (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.32 to 2.56); catheter replacement (two trials, 501 participants) (RR 0.69, 95% CI 0.26 to 1.83); and postdural puncture headache (one trial, 110 participants) (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.12 to 5.71).Authors' conclusionsLow-quality evidence shows that results do not differ between air and saline in terms of the loss of resistance technique for identification of the epidural space and reduction of complications. Applicability might be compromised, as most of the results described in this review were obtained from parturient patients. This review underlines the need to conduct well-designed trials in this field.

Thermo-sensitive chitosan-cellulose derivative hydrogels: swelling behaviour and morphologic studies

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Effect of Fe-doping on the structural, microstructural, optical, and ferroeletric properties of Pb1/2Sr1/2Ti1-xFexO3 oxide prepared by spin coating technique

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Validity and behaviour of tropospheric gradients estimated by GPS in Corsica

Estimation of tropospheric gradients in GNSS data processing is a well-known technique to improve positioning (e.g. Bar-Sever et al., 1998; Chen and Herring, 1997). More recently, several authors also focused on the estimation of such parameters for meteorological studies and demonstrated their potential benefits (e.g. Champollion et al., 2004). Today, they are routinely estimated by several global and regional GNSS analysis centres but they are still not yet used for operational meteorology.This paper discusses the physical meaning of tropospheric gradients estimated from GPS observations recorded in 2011 by 13 permanent stations located in Corsica Island (a French Island in the western part of Italy). Corsica Island is a particularly interesting location for such study as it presents a significant environmental contrast between the continent and the sea, as well as a steep topography.Therefore, we estimated Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) and tropospheric gradients using two software: GAMIT/GLOBK (GAMIT version 10.5) and GIPSY-OASIS II version 6.1. Our results are then compared to radiosonde observations and to the IGS final troposphere products. For all stations we found a good agreement between the ZWD estimated by the two software (the mean of the ZWD differences is 1 mm with a standard deviation of 6 mm) but the tropospheric gradients are in less good agreement (the mean of the gradient differences is 0.1 mm with a standard deviation of 0.7 mm), despite the differences in the processing strategy (double-differences for GAMIT/GLOBK versus zero-difference for GIPSY-OASIS).We also observe that gradient amplitudes are correlated with the seasonal behaviour of the humidity. Like ZWD estimates, they are larger in summer than in winter. Their directions are stable over the time but not correlated with the IWV anomaly observed by ERA-Interim. Tropospheric gradients observed at many sites always point to inland throughout the year. These preferred directions are almost opposite to the largest slope of the local topography as derived from the world Digital Elevation Model ASTER GDEM v2. These first results give a physical meaning to gradients but the origin of such directions need further investigations.

Change detection as support for monitoring the dynamic of land around reservoir

The change detection technique was used in this study to provide preliminary information on the dynamics of land cover in the region over the western basin of the Tiete River. This area is characterized by sequence of reservoirs and intense agricultural activity, triggering series negative effects. One of the impacts is contamination and proliferation of aquatic organisms in these aquatics environments, increased by release of nutrients from human activities. This work was possible to observe a large switching classes and secondary vegetation bare land, probably related to agricultural activity.

Electrochemical behaviour of copper electrode in concentrated sulfuric acid solutions

The electrochemical behaviour of copper in 6.0 mol 1-1 sulfuric acid at 30°C, was studied by means of the potentiodynamic method. At low potential sweep rates, v < 200 m V s-1, the data reveal that the anodic process is basically constituted of copper dissolution and a film formation which inhibits further metal oxidation and which may undergo further dissolution. For higher potential sweep rates, a modification in the passivation region of the voltammogram is observed. It can be ascribed to a change in the passivation mechanism which possibly involves different surface species. The kineticrelationships derived from the potentiodynamic I/E curves obtained at low v suggest a film formation via a dissolution/precipitation mechanism. © 1993.

Investigação de técnicas para o acompanhamento do desgaste de um par engrenado utilizando tribologia e análise da resposta dinâmica processada via função densidade probabilidade Beta

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEIS

Animal performance, feeding behaviour and carcass traits of feedlot cattle diet fed with agro-industrial by-product as fat source

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Graphene modification with gold nanoparticles using the gas aggregation technique

Gold nanoparticles (Au-NPs) were deposited on single layer graphene (SLG) and few layers graphene (FLG) by applying the gas aggregation technique, previously adapted to a 4-gun commercial magnetron sputtering system. The samples were supported on SiO2 (280 nm)/Si substrates, and the influence of the applied DC power and deposition times on the nanoparticle-graphene system was investigated by Confocal Raman Microscopy. Analysis of the G and 2D bands of the Raman spectra shows that the integrated intensity ratio (I-2D/I-G) was higher for SLG than for FLG. For the samples produced using a sputtering power of 30W, the intensity (peak height) of the G and 2D bands increased with the deposition time, whereas for those produced applying 60W the peak heights of the G and 2D bands decreased with the deposition time. This behaviour was ascribed to the formation of larger Au-NPs aggregates in the last case. A significant increase of the Full Width Half Maximum (FWHM) of the G band for SLG and FLG was also observed as a function of the DC power and deposition time. Surprisingly, the fine details of the Raman spectra revealed an unintentional doping of SLG and FLG accompanying the increase of size and aggregation of the Au-NPs. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting the behaviour of structures under impact loads using geometrically distorted scaled models

When a scaled structure (model or replica) is used to predict the response of a full-size compound (prototype), the model geometric dimensions should relate to the corresponding prototype dimensions by a single scaling factor. However, owing to manufacturing technical restrictions, this condition cannot be accomplished for some of the dimensions in real structures. Accordingly, the distorted geometry will not comply with the overall geometric scaling factor, infringing the Pi theorem requirements for complete dynamic similarity. In the present study, a method which takes geometrical distortions into account is introduced, leading to a model similar to the prototype. As a means to infer the performance of this method, three analytical problems of structures subjected to dynamic loads are analysed. It is shown that the replica developed applying this technique is able to accurately predict the full-size structure behaviour even when the studied models have some of their dimensions severely distorted. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Constraining H-0 in general dark energy models from Sunyaev-Zeldovich/X-ray technique and complementary probes

In accelerating dark energy models, the estimates of the Hubble constant, Ho, from Sunyaev-Zerdovich effect (SZE) and X-ray surface brightness of galaxy clusters may depend on the matter content (Omega(M)), the curvature (Omega(K)) and the equation of state parameter GO. In this article, by using a sample of 25 angular diameter distances of galaxy clusters described by the elliptical beta model obtained through the SZE/X-ray technique, we constrain Ho in the framework of a general ACDM model (arbitrary curvature) and a flat XCDM model with a constant equation of state parameter omega = p(x)/rho(x). In order to avoid the use of priors in the cosmological parameters, we apply a joint analysis involving the baryon acoustic oscillations (BA()) and the (MB Shift Parameter signature. By taking into account the statistical and systematic errors of the SZE/X-ray technique we obtain for nonflat ACDM model H-0 = 74(-4.0)(+5.0) km s(-1) Mpc(-1) (1 sigma) whereas for a fiat universe with constant equation of state parameter we find H-0 = 72(-4.0)(+5.5) km s(-1) Mpc(-1)(1 sigma). By assuming that galaxy clusters are described by a spherical beta model these results change to H-0 = 6(-7.0)(+8.0) and H-0 = 59(-6.0)(+9.0) km s(-1) Mpc(-1)(1 sigma), respectively. The results from elliptical description are in good agreement with independent studies from the Hubble Space Telescope key project and recent estimates based on the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe, thereby suggesting that the combination of these three independent phenomena provides an interesting method to constrain the Bubble constant. As an extra bonus, the adoption of the elliptical description is revealed to be a quite realistic assumption. Finally, by comparing these results with a recent determination for a, flat ACDM model using only the SZE/X-ray technique and BAO, we see that the geometry has a very weak influence on H-0 estimates for this combination of data.