Konkurssin ennustaminen ja makrotaloudelliset muuttujat: rakennusalan pk-yritykset

Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena on selvittää kannattaako makrotaloudellisia muuttujia käyttää tunnuslukujen lisäksi yrityksen konkurssin ennustamisessa. Perinteiset konkurssinennustamismallit hyödyntävät pelkästään tilinpäätöksestä saatavia tunnuslukuja eivätkä huomioi yrityksen toimintaympäristöä ja sen muutoksia. Aiemmissa tutkimuksissa makrotaloudellisilla muuttujilla on pystytty parantamaan perinteisiä ennustamismalleja. Tutkimus toteutetaan luomalla kolme erilaista konkurssinennustamismallia logistista regressioanalyysiä hyödyntäen ja vertailemalla niiden paremmuutta. Tutkimustulokset osoittavat, että rakennusalan pk-yritysten konkursseja pystytään ennustamaan kolmen tunnusluvun mallilla. Taloudellisen ajanjakson, jolta yrityksen tiedot ovat peräisin, huomioiminen ei tuo malliin lisäarvoa eikä paranna ennustamiskykyä merkittävästi.

The Dark Side of International Business? Stakeholder Approach to Human Trafficking in Finnish Construction and Service Sectors

Human trafficking is not a new phenomenon. It has existed in various forms for ages around the world. Some researchers have even compared it to slavery, calling it the modern form of slavery in the 21st century. This study is particularly interested in the role of work-related human trafficking in Finnish business. In order for something to be called work-related human trafficking, the concepts of forced labour and human trafficking have to overlap. From the economic point of view, human trafficking is governed by the laws of supply and demand. In many countries the global pressure on cutting costs has created two trends: the increased supply of migrant workers and the deregulation of labour markets. These competitive pressures can have an adverse impact on the conditions of employment and, in the worst cases, can lead to forced labour and trafficking. In fact, trafficking has become one of the most profitable illicit industries worldwide, generating tremendous profits due to its low costs and huge profits. Therefore, it is important to investigate the phenomenon from the business point of view. This study is a qualitative research conducted by using theme interviews as a research approach. Altogether 13 interviews have been conducted and some secondary data has been used in order to find out what the role of human trafficking is in Finnish business. The special sectors investigated are the Finnish construction and service sectors. The theory framework used in this study follows the stakeholder approach. The relevant stakeholder groups for this study are: ‘institutions and authorities’, ‘law enforcement’, ‘management’ and ‘employees – potential victims’ of trafficking. With the help of these stakeholder groups, a holistic picture of the phenomenon is formed. It can be concluded that the role of human trafficking is complicated but it does exist in Finnish business. It appears in low-cost business sectors where the demand for cheap labour is high. Thus, often the victims are foreigners who do not know the culture or the Finnish conditions of employment. Especially smaller Finnish companies are at risk of getting involved in human trafficking or related exploitation cases since monitoring is much more scarce in these firms than in larger companies. The risk of human trafficking and exploitation is also higher at the bottom of the complicated subcontracting chains or when using foreign recruitment agencies. Thus, the study believes that active and intensive collaboration between the company’s different stakeholder groups is needed in order to prevent work-related human trafficking from flourishing in Finland.

Future trends of Finnish cement based construction

The construction material sector, as a capital intensive industry, is highly vulnerable to rapid fluctuations in the economic cycles. In Finland this was witnessed especially during the late 2000s, as in 2007 and 2008 the demand for several construction materials exceeded their supply and right after this, in 2009 the demand collapsed fast as a result of an international recession. These factors brought about the need to study the future trends of the market place of the commissioning company, Finnsementti Oy. As reliable short term market forecasts for the sector are difficult to compose, the study concentrates primarily in examining and identifying the trends that are likely to affect the Finnish cement industry, and as an extension, the concrete industry in a frame of 10 to 15 years. The study’s scope comprehends also the examination of the domestic construction sector, as it represents the end user industry of both cement and concrete. These motives for the study produce the research problem, which is to conduct a trend analysis for cement based building in the Finnish market area in the 2020s. The theoretical frame for composing a trend analysis in the case of this study is twofold. This is due to the fact that both, the macro and micro environments of the examined industries are studied. The main methods used are the PESTE-model (macro) and Porter’s five forces model (micro). The study applies a qualitative approach and the data is gathered by interviewing a group of experts from the cement, concrete and construction industries. The result of the paper is an overall trend analysis for the Finnish cement based building sector, which is based on ‘sub trend analyses’ concerning four identified sub-sectors of the Finnish construction industry. The results are a combination of findings from these sub-sectors and the analyzed data that deals with the studied sector’s macro and micro environment. The conclusions provide an overall picture of the examined sectors’ potential future as a whole and by defined sub-sectors of the construction industry. The recognition of future trends in different areas of the construction industry can be applied as a means for an industry actor’s decision making and in estimating the types of construction that are likely to grow or decline. Finally, based on the analyzed data and conclusions, the commissioning company is provided with a brief SWOT analysis, that provides additional tools for decision making and planning processes regarding the future.

Construction and validation of a surgical skills assessment tool for general surgery residency program

Objective: To develop and validate an instrument for measuring the acquisition of technical skills in conducting operations of increasing difficulty for use in General Surgery Residency (GSR) programs. Methods: we built a surgical skills assessment tool containing 11 operations in increasing levels of difficulty. For instrument validation we used the face validaity method. Through an electronic survey tool (Survey MonKey(r)) we sent a questionnaire to Full and Emeritus members of the Brazilian College of Surgeons - CBC - all bearers of the CBC Specialist Title. Results: Of the 307 questionnaires sent we received 100 responses. For the analysis of the data collected we used the Cronbach's alpha test. We observed that, in general, the overall alpha presented with values near or greater than 0.70, meaning good consistency to assess their points of interest. Conclusion: The evaluation instrument built was validated and can be used as a method of assessment of technical skill acquisition in the General Surgery Residency programs in Brazil.

Jeg strikker, derfor er jeg! : læring og identitet i uformelle læringsrum

The dissertation ´I knit, therefore I am!´ Learning and identity in informal space has two main purposes. The first purpose being an investigation of how new value attributions and thinking can generate novel and usable knowledge to the field of craftsmanship, and the second purpose being a display of a different and overlooked philosophical and cultural potential in a reflexive mode of expression, which is able to reflect the normative comprehension of craftsmanship. The dissertation focuses on learning and identity in informal spaces of learning and how it is possible to relate such a learning perspective to crafts training in educational establishments. The empirical foundation of this dissertation is ‘craftivism’. In the dissertation activists from the Nordic countries have been interviewed about what they do when they put up their textile graffiti on lamp posts and house walls. Three research problems are presented: 1) What stories do people who work as crafts activists, tell about ways of relating and methods of action when they make crafts? 2) What do these stories tell about learning and identity? 3) How may the research results influence training and education in craftsmanship? These questions are being asked in order to acquire new knowledge in two aspects; first aspect being knowledge about crafts in relation to techniques, tradition and the objects in crafts, and the second aspect being knowledge about learning and identity in informal spaces of learning. The dissertations theoretical foundation is post structural and sociocultural combined with hermeneutical-inspired qualitative interviews. The author’s position and pre-understanding is subject to discussion in relation to the informant; the performing activist, as the background for both of them is craftsmanship. Starting from cultural studies, it is possible to see the activist subject’s conditions of possibilities in the culture, as the activism of the sub-cultural phenomenon’s craft lights up through a performing approach to the individual’s actions. First the research material has been analysed for events of textile graffiti and possible themes in the events, after which the results have been summarised. Next the research material has been analysed for events about learning and identity due to the author’s wish of comprehending the background of and motivational force in activism. The analysis is divided in main perspectives with different dimensions. The results of the analysis show the activist subject’s construction of an individual who actively takes part in a community by e.g. creating joy, changing the world’s perception of sustainability or by feminizing the public space. By taking crafts over the borders (and away from the class room) crafts become contextualized in a novel fashion thus obtaining an independent status. In this fashion the dissertation writes itself into a new method of comprehending and performing traditional craftsmanship techniques.

Social tagging within task management

Social tagging evolved in response to a need to tag heterogeneous objects, the automated tagging of which is usually not feasible by current technological means. Social tagging can be used for more flexible competence management within organizations. The profiles of employees can be built in the form of groups of tags, as employees tag each other, based on their familiarity of each other’s expertise. This can serve as a replacement for the more traditional competence management approaches, which usually become outdated due to social and organizational hurdles, and obsolete data. These limitations can be overcome by people tagging, as the information revealed by such tags is usually based on most recent employee interaction and knowledge. Task management as part of personal information management aims at the support of users’ individual task handling. This can include collaborating with other individuals, sharing one’s knowledge, both functional and process-related, and distributing documents and web resources. In this context, Task patterns can be used as templates that collect information and experience around tasks associated to it during run time, facilitating agility. The effective collaboration among contributors necessitates the means to find the appropriate individuals to work with on the task, and this can be made possible by using social tagging to describe individual competencies. The goal of this study is to support finding and tagging people within task management, through the effective exploitation of the work/task context. This involves the utilization of knowledge of the workers’ expertise, nature of the task/task pattern and information available from the documents and web resources attached to the task. Vice versa, task management provides an excellent environment for social tagging due to the task context that already provides suitable tags. The study also aims at assisting users of the task management solution with the collaborative construction of light-weight ontology by inferring semantic relations between tags. The thesis project aims at an implementation of people finding & tagging within the java application for task management that consumes web services, which provide the required ontology for the organization.

Qualitative Characteristics and Quantitative Measures of Solution's Reliability in Discrete Optimization: Traditional Analytical Approaches, Innovative Computational Methods and Applicability

The purpose of this thesis is twofold. The first and major part is devoted to sensitivity analysis of various discrete optimization problems while the second part addresses methods applied for calculating measures of solution stability and solving multicriteria discrete optimization problems. Despite numerous approaches to stability analysis of discrete optimization problems two major directions can be single out: quantitative and qualitative. Qualitative sensitivity analysis is conducted for multicriteria discrete optimization problems with minisum, minimax and minimin partial criteria. The main results obtained here are necessary and sufficient conditions for different stability types of optimal solutions (or a set of optimal solutions) of the considered problems. Within the framework of quantitative direction various measures of solution stability are investigated. A formula for a quantitative characteristic called stability radius is obtained for the generalized equilibrium situation invariant to changes of game parameters in the case of the H¨older metric. Quality of the problem solution can also be described in terms of robustness analysis. In this work the concepts of accuracy and robustness tolerances are presented for a strategic game with a finite number of players where initial coefficients (costs) of linear payoff functions are subject to perturbations. Investigation of stability radius also aims to devise methods for its calculation. A new metaheuristic approach is derived for calculation of stability radius of an optimal solution to the shortest path problem. The main advantage of the developed method is that it can be potentially applicable for calculating stability radii of NP-hard problems. The last chapter of the thesis focuses on deriving innovative methods based on interactive optimization approach for solving multicriteria combinatorial optimization problems. The key idea of the proposed approach is to utilize a parameterized achievement scalarizing function for solution calculation and to direct interactive procedure by changing weighting coefficients of this function. In order to illustrate the introduced ideas a decision making process is simulated for three objective median location problem. The concepts, models, and ideas collected and analyzed in this thesis create a good and relevant grounds for developing more complicated and integrated models of postoptimal analysis and solving the most computationally challenging problems related to it.

Taajuusmuuttajaohjattu kestomagneettitahtikone opetuslaboratoriokäytössä

Kestomagneettien kehittyminen on mahdollistanut sähkökoneen rakentamisen perinteisistä menetelmistä poiketen ja on samalla luonut uudenlaisia ominaisuuksia ja käyttökohteita. Erityisesti kestomagneettitahtikone (PMSM) on kasvattanut suosiota hyvän hyötysuhteen ja luotettavuuden myötä. Työssä esitellään kestomagneettitahtikonetta sen rakenteen ja toimintaperiaatteen avulla. Tarkastellaan kestomagneettien kehitystä ja tulevaisuuden näkymiä. Perehdytään myös taajuusmuuttajaan, mitä käytetään yleensä kestomagneettitahtikoneen ohjaukseen. Lisäksi esitetään taajuusmuuttajan erilaisia säätötapoja. Työn kokeellisessa osuudessa yliopiston opetuslaboratorioon kehitetään koneikko, jonka avulla tutkitaan kestomagneettitahtikoneen toimintaan osana sähkökäyttöä. Työn tavoitteena on selvittää PMSM:n ominaisuuksia sekä suunnitella sähkötekniikan työkurssille soveltuva mittaussarja, mikä johdattaa opiskelijat tässä työssä käsiteltyihin aihealueisiin.

Organisational learning and knowledge acquisition. A case study of internationalising manufacturers of wood-based prefabricated buildings

The study investigates organisational learning and knowledge acquisition of wood-based prefabricated building manufacturers. This certain group of case companies was chosen, because their management and their employees generally have a strong manufacturing and engineering background, while the housing sector is characterised by national norms, regulations, as well as local building styles. Considering this setting, it was investigated, how the case companies develop organisational learning capabilities, acquire and transfer knowledge for their internationalisation. The theoretical framework of this study constitutes the knowledge-based conceptualisation of internationalisation, which combines the traditional internationalisation process, as well as the international new venture perspective based on their commonalities in the knowledge-based view of the firm. Different theories of internationalisation, including the network-perspective, were outlined and a framework on organisational learning and knowledge acquisition was established. The empirical research followed a qualitative approach, deploying a multiple-case study with five case companies from Austria, Finland and Germany. In the study, the development of the wood-based prefabricated building industry and of the case companies are described, and the motives, facilitators and challenges for foreign expansion, as well as the companies’ internationalisation approaches are compared. Different methods of how companies facilitate the knowledge-exchange or learn about new markets are also outlined. Experience, market knowledge and personal contacts are considered essential for the internationalisation process. The major finding of the study is that it is not necessary to acquire the market knowledge internally in a slow process as proposed by the Uppsala model. In four cases companies engaged knowledge in symbiotic relations with local business partners. Thereby, the building manufacturers contribute their design and production capabilities, and in return, their local partners provide them with knowledge about the market and local regulations; while they manage the sales and construction operations. Thus, the study provides strong evidence for the propositions of network perspective. One case company developed the knowledge internally in a gradual process: it entered the market sequentially with several business lines, showing an increasing level of complexity. In both of the observed strategies, single-loop and double-loop learning processes occurred.

Reflexive Space. A Constructionist Model of the Russian Reflexive Marker

This study examines the structure of the Russian Reflexive Marker ( ся/-сь) and offers a usage-based model building on Construction Grammar and a probabilistic view of linguistic structure. Traditionally, reflexive verbs are accounted for relative to non-reflexive verbs. These accounts assume that linguistic structures emerge as pairs. Furthermore, these accounts assume directionality where the semantics and structure of a reflexive verb can be derived from the non-reflexive verb. However, this directionality does not necessarily hold diachronically. Additionally, the semantics and the patterns associated with a particular reflexive verb are not always shared with the non-reflexive verb. Thus, a model is proposed that can accommodate the traditional pairs as well as for the possible deviations without postulating different systems. A random sample of 2000 instances marked with the Reflexive Marker was extracted from the Russian National Corpus and the sample used in this study contains 819 unique reflexive verbs. This study moves away from the traditional pair account and introduces the concept of Neighbor Verb. A neighbor verb exists for a reflexive verb if they share the same phonological form excluding the Reflexive Marker. It is claimed here that the Reflexive Marker constitutes a system in Russian and the relation between the reflexive and neighbor verbs constitutes a cross-paradigmatic relation. Furthermore, the relation between the reflexive and the neighbor verb is argued to be of symbolic connectivity rather than directionality. Effectively, the relation holding between particular instantiations can vary. The theoretical basis of the present study builds on this assumption. Several new variables are examined in order to systematically model variability of this symbolic connectivity, specifically the degree and strength of connectivity between items. In usage-based models, the lexicon does not constitute an unstructured list of items. Instead, items are assumed to be interconnected in a network. This interconnectedness is defined as Neighborhood in this study. Additionally, each verb carves its own niche within the Neighborhood and this interconnectedness is modeled through rhyme verbs constituting the degree of connectivity of a particular verb in the lexicon. The second component of the degree of connectivity concerns the status of a particular verb relative to its rhyme verbs. The connectivity within the neighborhood of a particular verb varies and this variability is quantified by using the Levenshtein distance. The second property of the lexical network is the strength of connectivity between items. Frequency of use has been one of the primary variables in functional linguistics used to probe this. In addition, a new variable called Constructional Entropy is introduced in this study building on information theory. It is a quantification of the amount of information carried by a particular reflexive verb in one or more argument constructions. The results of the lexical connectivity indicate that the reflexive verbs have statistically greater neighborhood distances than the neighbor verbs. This distributional property can be used to motivate the traditional observation that the reflexive verbs tend to have idiosyncratic properties. A set of argument constructions, generalizations over usage patterns, are proposed for the reflexive verbs in this study. In addition to the variables associated with the lexical connectivity, a number of variables proposed in the literature are explored and used as predictors in the model. The second part of this study introduces the use of a machine learning algorithm called Random Forests. The performance of the model indicates that it is capable, up to a degree, of disambiguating the proposed argument construction types of the Russian Reflexive Marker. Additionally, a global ranking of the predictors used in the model is offered. Finally, most construction grammars assume that argument construction form a network structure. A new method is proposed that establishes generalization over the argument constructions referred to as Linking Construction. In sum, this study explores the structural properties of the Russian Reflexive Marker and a new model is set forth that can accommodate both the traditional pairs and potential deviations from it in a principled manner.

Scaling up stepwise feature introduction to construction of large software systems

Developing software is a difficult and error-prone activity. Furthermore, the complexity of modern computer applications is significant. Hence,an organised approach to software construction is crucial. Stepwise Feature Introduction – created by R.-J. Back – is a development paradigm, in which software is constructed by adding functionality in small increments. The resulting code has an organised, layered structure and can be easily reused. Moreover, the interaction with the users of the software and the correctness concerns are essential elements of the development process, contributing to high quality and functionality of the final product. The paradigm of Stepwise Feature Introduction has been successfully applied in an academic environment, to a number of small-scale developments. The thesis examines the paradigm and its suitability to construction of large and complex software systems by focusing on the development of two software systems of significant complexity. Throughout the thesis we propose a number of improvements and modifications that should be applied to the paradigm when developing or reengineering large and complex software systems. The discussion in the thesis covers various aspects of software development that relate to Stepwise Feature Introduction. More specifically, we evaluate the paradigm based on the common practices of object-oriented programming and design and agile development methodologies. We also outline the strategy to testing systems built with the paradigm of Stepwise Feature Introduction.

Identification of Some Additional Loss Components in High-Power Low-Voltage Permanent Magnet Generators

Permanent magnet generators (PMG) represent the cutting edge technology in modern wind mills. The efficiency remains high (over 90%) at partial loads. To improve the machine efficiency even further, every aspect of machine losses has to be analyzed. Additional losses are often given as a certain percentage without providing any detailed information about the actual calculation process; meanwhile, there are many design-dependent losses that have an effect on the total amount of additional losses and that have to be taken into consideration. Additional losses are most often eddy current losses in different parts of the machine. These losses are usually difficult to calculate in the design process. In this doctoral thesis, some additional losses are identified and modeled. Further, suggestions on how to minimize the losses are given. Iron losses can differ significantly between the measured no-load values and the loss values under load. In addition, with embedded magnet rotors, the quadrature-axis armature reaction adds losses to the stator iron by manipulating the harmonic content of the flux. It was, therefore, re-evaluated that in salient pole machines, to minimize the losses and the loss difference between the no-load and load operation, the flux density has to be kept below 1.5 T in the stator yoke, which is the traditional guideline for machine designers. Eddy current losses may occur in the end-winding area and in the support structure of the machine, that is, in the finger plate and the clamping ring. With construction steel, these losses account for 0.08% of the input power of the machine. These losses can be reduced almost to zero by using nonmagnetic stainless steel. In addition, the machine housing may be subjected to eddy current losses if the flux density exceeds 1.5 T in the stator yoke. Winding losses can rise rapidly when high frequencies and 10–15 mm high conductors are used. In general, minimizing the winding losses is simple. For example, it can be done by dividing the conductor into transposed subconductors. However, this comes with the expense of an increase in the DC resistance. In the doctoral thesis, a new method is presented to minimize the winding losses by applying a litz wire with noninsulated strands. The construction is the same as in a normal litz wire but the insulation between the subconductors has been left out. The idea is that the connection is kept weak to prevent harmful eddy currents from flowing. Moreover, the analytical solution for calculating the AC resistance factor of the litz-wire is supplemented by including an end-winding resistance in the analytical solution. A simple measurement device is developed to measure the AC resistance in the windings. In the case of a litz-wire with originally noninsulated strands, vacuum pressure impregnation (VPI) is used to insulate the subconductors. In one of the two cases studied, the VPI affected the AC resistance factor, but in the other case, it did not have any effect. However, more research is needed to determine the effect of the VPI on litz-wire with noninsulated strands. An empirical model is developed to calculate the AC resistance factor of a single-layer formwound winding. The model includes the end-winding length and the number of strands and turns. The end winding includes the circulating current (eddy currents that are traveling through the whole winding between parallel strands) and the main current. The end-winding length also affects the total AC resistance factor.