Extinction risk from climate change

Climate change over the past ,30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species1,2 and has been implicated in one species-level extinction3. Using projections of species’ distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth’s terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a powerlaw relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15–37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be ‘committed to extinction’. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (,18%) than mid-range (,24%) and maximum change (,35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse

Revised age estimate of the Mjauvotn tephra A on the Faroe Islands based on Bayesian modelling of C-14 dates from two lake sequences

Tephra horizons are potentially perfect time markers for dating and cross-correlation among diverse Holocene palaeoenvironmental records such as ice cores and marine and terrestrial sequences, but we need to trust their age. Here we present a new age estimate of the Holocene Mjauvotn tephra A using accelerator mass spectrometry C-14 dates from two lakes on the Faroe Islands. With Bayesian age modelling it is dated to 6668-6533 cal. a BP (68.2% confidence interval) - significantly older and better constrained than the previous age. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evidence for progressive Holocene aridification in southern Africa recorded in Namibian hyrax middens: Implications for African Monsoon dynamics and the

Presented here are stable nitrogen isotope data from a rock hyrax (Procavia capensis) middens from northwestern Namibia that record a series of rapid aridification events beginning at ca. 3800 cal yr BP, and which mark a progressive decrease in regional humidity across the Holocene. Strong correlations exist between this record and other terrestrial and marine archives from southern Africa, indicating that the observed pattern of climate change is regionally coherent. Combined, these data indicate hemispheric synchrony in tropical African climate change during the Holocene, with similar trends characterising the termination of the 'African Humid Period' (AHP) in both the northern and southern tropics. These findings run counter to the widely accepted model of direct low-latitude insolation forcing, which requires an antiphase relationship to exist between the hemispheres. The combined dataset highlights: 1) the importance of forcing mechanisms influencing the high northern latitudes in effecting low-latitude climate change in Africa, and 2) the potential importance of solar forcing and variations in the Earth's geomagnetic shield in determining both long-term and rapid centennial-scale climate changes, identifying a possible mechanism for the variations marking the AHP termination in both the southern and northern tropics. (C) 2010 University of Washington. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Orbital period variations of hot Jupiters caused by the Applegate effect

Several authors have shown that precise measurements of transit time variations of exoplanets can be sensitive to other planetary bodies, such as exo-moons. In addition, the transit timing variations of the exoplanets closest to their host stars can provide tests of tidal dissipation theory. These studies, however, have not considered the effect of the host star. There is a large body of observational evidence that eclipse times of binary stars can vary dramatically due to variations in the quadrupole moment of the stars driven by stellar activity. In this paper, we investigate and estimate the likely impact such variations have on the transit times of exoplanets. We find in several cases that such variations should be detectable. In particular, the estimated period changes for WASP-18b are of the same order as those expected for tidal dissipation, even for relatively low values of the tidal dissipation parameter. The transit time variations caused by the Applegate mechanism are also of the correct magnitude and occur on time-scales such that they may be confused with variations caused by light-travel time effects due to the presence of a Jupiter-like second planet. Finally, we suggest that transiting exoplanet systems may provide a clean route (compared to binaries) to constraining the type of dynamo operating in the host star.

Rotation periods of exoplanet host stars

The stellar rotation periods of 10 exoplanet host stars have been determined using newly analysed CaII H&K flux records from the Mount Wilson Observatory and Strömgren b, y photometric measurements from Tennessee State University's automatic photometric telescopes at the Fairborn Observatory. Five of the rotation periods have not previously been reported, with that of HD 130322 very strongly detected at Prot = 26.1 +/- 3.5 d. The rotation periods of five other stars have been updated using new data. We use the rotation periods to derive the line-of-sight inclinations of the stellar rotation axes, which may be used to probe theories of planet formation and evolution when combined with the planetary orbital inclination found from other methods. Finally, we estimate the masses of 14 exoplanets under the assumption that the stellar rotation axis is aligned with the orbital axis. We calculate the mass of HD 92788 b (28 MJ) to be within the low-mass brown dwarf regime and suggest that this object warrants further investigation to confirm its true nature.

Incised palaeo-channels of the Late Middle Pleistocene Thames: age, origins and implications for fluvial palaeogeography and sea-level reconstruction in the southern North Sea Basin.

Multidisciplinary investigations of the infills of steeply-incised buried channels on the coast of Essex, England, provide important insights into late Middle Pleistocene climate and sea-level change and have a direct bearing on the differentiation of MIS 11 and MIS 9 in terrestrial records. New data are presented from Rochford and Burnham-on-Crouch where remnants of two substantial palaeo-channels filled with interglacial sediment can be directly related to the terrace stratigraphy of the Thames. The sediments in both channels accumulated in an estuarine environment early in an interglacial when mixed oak forest was becoming established. Lithological evidence suggests that the interglacial beds post-date the brackish-water infill of an older palaeo-channel ascribed to the Hoxnian and correlated with part of MIS 11, and pre-date terrace gravels (Barling Gravel) ascribed to MIS 8. An MIS 9 attribution is supported by molluscan biostratigraphy, palaeo-salinity and amino-acid racemization data. The relative sea-level record in this area thus includes evidence for two major marine transgressions during MIS 11 and MIS 9, with local maxima of >10 m O.D. Both are associated with sediments that show ‘Hoxnian’ palynological affinities. The wider significance of these findings, and of an intermediate phase of pronounced fluvial incision during MIS 10, is discussed.

High-resolution 14C dating of a 25,000-year lake-sediment record from equatorial East Africa

We dated a continuous, ~22-m long sediment sequence from Lake Challa (Mt. Kilimanjaro area, Kenya/Tanzania) to produce a solid chronological framework for multi-proxy reconstructions of climate and environmental change in equatorial East Africa over the past 25,000 years. The age model is based on a total of 168 AMS 14C dates on bulk-organic matter, combined with a 210Pb chronology for recent sediments and corrected for a variable old-carbon age offset. This offset was estimated by i) pairing bulk-organic 14C dates with either 210Pb-derived time markers or 14C dates on grass charcoal, and ii) wiggle-matching high-density series of bulk-organic 14C dates. Variation in the old-carbon age offset through time is relatively modest, ranging from ~450 yr during glacial and late glacial time to ~200 yr during the early and mid-Holocene, and increasing again to ~250 yr today. The screened and corrected 14C dates were calibrated sequentially, statistically constrained by their stratigraphical order. As a result their constrained calendar-age distributions are much narrower, and the calibrated dates more precise, than if each 14C date had been calibrated on its own. The smooth-spline age-depth model has 95% age uncertainty ranges of ~50–230 yr during the Holocene and ~250–550 yr in the glacial section of the record. The d13C values of paired bulk-organic and grass-charcoal samples, and additional 14C dating on selected turbidite horizons, indicates that the old-carbon age offset in Lake Challa is caused by a variable contribution of old terrestrial organic matter eroded from soils, and controlled mainly by changes in vegetation cover within the crater basin.

Resource pressure and environmental change on the North African littoral: Epipalaeolithic to Roman gastropods from Cyrenaica, Libya.

This paper discusses the marine and terrestrial shell on Epipalaeolithic to Classical-period sites in the Cyrenaican coastlands, northeast Libya, with particular reference to the Haua Fteah, with parallel studies at a late-Roman farmstead and two small caves. Together they provide evidence for coastal and terrestrial environments and for the continued nutritional importance of gastropods to humans during the Holocene. Land snail evidence is consistent with regional vegetation in coastal Cyrenaica becoming increasingly open through the Holocene, as a result of some combination of climate change and human impact. Marine species suggest that the coastline near the Haua had been rocky throughout the Holocene. At Hagfet al-Gama, changing faunas provide evidence for sand encroachment onto a previously rocky shoreline in Hellenistic times. A biometric study of Osilinus turbinatus shows that in the archaeological sites these shells are systematically smaller than modern specimens, providing evidence for long-term dietary stress in the human populations around the Haua Fteah, with particularly severe stress in parts of the Epipalaeolithic. A biometric study of Patella spp. provided evidence for size selection, but also seems to show evidence for resource pressure. It is unlikely that variations in resource pressure seen in the mollusc biometrics are the result of climatic stress or natural ecological factors and explanations must be sought in society-environment dynamics.

Temporal Variability in Predator-Prey Relationships of a Forest Floor Food Web

Connectance webs represent the standard data description in food web ecology, but their usefulness is often limited in understanding the patterns and processes within ecosystems. Increasingly, efforts have been made to incorporate additional, biologically meaningful, data into food web descriptions, including the construction of food webs using data describing the body size and abundance of each species. Here, data from a terrestrial forest floor food web, sampled seasonally over a 1-year period, were analysed to investigate (i) how stable the body size abundance and predator prey relationships of an ecosystem are through time and (ii) whether there are system-specific differences in body size abundance and predator prey relationships between ecosystem types.

Temperature, predator-prey interaction strength and population stability

Warming could strongly stabilize or destabilize populations and food webs by changing the interaction strengths between predators and their prey. Predicting the consequences of warming requires understanding how temperature affects ingestion (energy gain) and metabolism (energy loss). Here, we studied the temperature dependence of metabolism and ingestion in laboratory experiments with terrestrial arthropods (beetles and spiders). From this data, we calculated ingestion efficiencies (ingestion/metabolism) and per capita interaction strengths in the short and long term. Additionally, we investigated if and how body mass changes these temperature dependencies. For both predator groups, warming increased metabolic rates substantially, whereas temperature effects on ingestion rates were weak. Accordingly, the ingestion efficiency (the ratio of ingestion to metabolism) decreased in all treatments. This result has two possible consequences: on the one hand, it suggests that warming of natural ecosystems could increase intrinsic population stability, meaning less fluctuations in population density; on the other hand, decreasing ingestion efficiencies may also lead to higher extinction risks because of starvation. Additionally, predicted long-term per capita interaction strengths decreased with warming, which suggests an increase in perturbation stability of populations, i.e., a higher probability of returning to the same equilibrium density after a small perturbation. Together, these results suggest that warming has complex and potentially profound effects on predator-prey interactions and food-web stability.

Late glacial interhemispheric climate dynamics revealed in South African hyrax middens

Our ability to identify the timing and extent of past major climate fluctuations is central to understanding changes in the global climate system. Of the events that have occurred in recent geological time, the Younger Dryas (YD, 13-11.5 ka), an abrupt return to near-glacial conditions during the last glacial-interglacial transition (ca. 18-11.5 ka), is one of the most widely reported. While this event is apparent throughout the Northern Hemisphere (Peteet, 1995), evidence for its occurrence in the Southern Hemisphere remains equivocal due to a lack of well-dated terrestrial records. Here we report high-resolution stable carbon and nitrogen isotope records obtained from a rock hyrax midden, revealing the first unequivocal terrestrial manifestation of the YD from the southern African subtropics. These results provide key evidence for the relative influence of the YD, and suggest that a subtropical-temperate transition zone existed along the oceanic Subtropical Front (similar to 41 degrees S) across the Southern Hemisphere, with the Northern Hemisphere exerting a strong influence on all but the higher latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere after the Heinrich Stadial 1 (15 ka).

WASP-25b: a 0.6 MJ planet in the Southern hemisphere

We report the detection of a 0.6 MJ extrasolar planet by WASP-South, WASP-25b, transiting its solar-type host star every 3.76 d. A simultaneous analysis of the WASP, FTS and Euler photometry and CORALIE spectroscopy yields a planet of Rp= 1.22 RJ and Mp= 0.58 MJ around a slightly metal-poor solar-type host star, [Fe/H]=- 0.05 ± 0.10, of R*= 0.92 Rsun and M*= 1.00 Msun. WASP-25b is found to have a density of ?p= 0.32 ?J, a low value for a sub-Jupiter mass planet. We investigate the relationship of planetary radius to planetary equilibrium temperature and host star metallicity for transiting exoplanets with a similar mass to WASP-25b, finding that these two parameters explain the radii of most low-mass planets well.

A lower mass for the exoplanet WASP-21b

We present high-precision transit observations of the exoplanet WASP-21b, obtained with the Rapid Imager to Search for Exoplanets instrument mounted on the 2.0-m Liverpool Telescope. A transit model is fitted, coupled with a Markov chain Monte Carlo routine, to derive accurate system parameters. The two new high-precision transits allow us to estimate the stellar density directly from the light curve. Our analysis suggests that WASP-21 is evolving off the main sequence which led to a previous overestimation of the stellar density. Using isochrone interpolation, we find a stellar mass of 0.86 ± 0.04 Msun, which is significantly lower than previously reported (1.01 ± 0.03 Msun). Consequently, we find a lower planetary mass of 0.27 ± 0.01 MJup. A lower inclination (87?4 ± 0?3) is also found for the system than previously reported, resulting in a slightly larger stellar (R*= 1.10 ± 0.03 Rsun) and planetary radius (Rp= 1.14 ± 0.04 RJup). The planet radius suggests a hydrogen/helium composition with no core which strengthens the correlation between planetary density and host star metallicity. A new ephemeris is determined for the system, i.e. T0= 245 5084.519 74 ± 0.000 20 (HJD) and P= 4.322 5060 ± 0.000 0031 d. We found no transit timing variations in WASP-21b.

High-precision transit observations of the exoplanet WASP-13b with the RISE instrument

WASP-13b is a sub-Jupiter mass exoplanet orbiting a G1V type star with a period of 4.35 d.The current uncertainty in its impact parameter (0 < b < 0.46) results in poorly definedstellar and planetary radii. To better constrain the impact parameter, we have obtained highprecisiontransit observations with the rapid imager to search for exoplanets (RISE) instrumentmounted on 2.0-m Liverpool Telescope. We present four new transits which are fitted witha Markov chain Monte Carlo routine to derive accurate system parameters. We found anorbital inclination of 85. ◦ 2 ± 0. ◦ 3 resulting in stellar and planetary radii of 1.56 ± 0.04 Rand 1.39 ± 0.05RJup, respectively. This suggests that the host star has evolved off the mainsequence and is in the hydrogen-shell-burning phase.We also discuss how the limb darkeningaffects the derived system parameters.With a density of 0.17ρJ,WASP-13b joins the group oflow-density planets whose radii are too large to be explained by standard irradiation models.We derive a new ephemeris for the system, T0 = 245 5575.5136 ± 0.0016 (HJD) and P =4.353 011 ± 0.000 013 d. The planet equilibrium temperature (Tequ = 1500 K) and the brighthost star (V = 10.4mag) make it a good candidate for follow-up atmospheric studies.

Characterization of the proteins present in the mucus of the flatworm Artioposthia triangulata (Dendy)

In common with other terrestrial flatworms, the mucus produced by Artioposthia triangulata may have a number of functions, including protection from environmental factors and from predators, and it provides the flatworm with lubrication for movement and adhesion. No previous work has been carried out on the characterization of proteins present in the mucus of A. triangulata and this study was a preliminary investigation of the mucus. Mucus was analysed by SDS-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis, biotinylated peptide affinity probes and the API ZYM enzyme detection kit. Results have revealed the presence of at least 40 polypeptides in the mucus and further studies with biotinylated probes have characterised one of them as a chymotrypsin-like serine protease. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc.