Experience of Development and Application of Expert Systems for Economic Macroparameters Forecasting and Operation

In this article there are considered problems of forecasting economical macroparameters, and in the first place, index of inflation. Concept of development of synthetical forecasting methods which use directly specified expert information as well as calculation result on the basis of objective economical and mathematical models for forecasting separate “slowly changeable parameters” are offered. This article discusses problems of macroparameters operation on the basis of analysis of received prognostic magnitude.

Enhancing the performance of intelligent control systems in the face of higher levels of complexity and uncertainty

Modern advances in technology have led to more complex manufacturing processes whose success centres on the ability to control these processes with a very high level of accuracy. Plant complexity inevitably leads to poor models that exhibit a high degree of parametric or functional uncertainty. The situation becomes even more complex if the plant to be controlled is characterised by a multivalued function or even if it exhibits a number of modes of behaviour during its operation. Since an intelligent controller is expected to operate and guarantee the best performance where complexity and uncertainty coexist and interact, control engineers and theorists have recently developed new control techniques under the framework of intelligent control to enhance the performance of the controller for more complex and uncertain plants. These techniques are based on incorporating model uncertainty. The newly developed control algorithms for incorporating model uncertainty are proven to give more accurate control results under uncertain conditions. In this paper, we survey some approaches that appear to be promising for enhancing the performance of intelligent control systems in the face of higher levels of complexity and uncertainty.

Asymptotic Expansion of Solution for Almost Regular and Weakly Perturbed Systems of Ordinary Differential Equations

Л. И. Каранджулов, Н. Д. Сиракова - В работата се прилага методът на Поанкаре за решаване на почти регулярни нелинейни гранични задачи при общи гранични условия. Предполага се, че диференциалната система съдържа сингулярна функция по отношение на малкия параметър. При определени условия се доказва асимптотичност на решението на поставената задача.

Structural design of contact lens-based drug delivery systems; in vitro and in vivo studies of ocular triggering mechanisms

This study identifies and investigates the potential use of in-eye trigger mechanisms to supplement the widely available information on release of ophthalmic drugs from contact lenses under passive release conditions. Ophthalmic dyes and surrogates have been successfully employed to investigate how these factors can be drawn together to make a successful system. The storage of a drug-containing lens in a pH lower than that of the ocular environment can be used to establish an equilibrium that favours retention of the drug in the lens prior to ocular insertion. Although release under passive conditions does not result in complete dye elution, the use of mechanical agitation techniques which mimic the eyelid blink action in conjunction with ocular tear chemistry promotes further release. In this way differentiation between passive and triggered in vitro release characteristics can be established. Investigation of the role of individual tear proteins revealed significant differences in their ability to alter the equilibrium between matrix-held and eluate-held dye or drug. These individual experiments were then investigated in vivo using ophthalmic dyes. Complete elution was found to be achievable in-eye; this demonstrated the importance of that fraction of the drug retained under passive conditions and the triggering effect of in-eye conditions on the release process. Understanding both the structure-property relationship between drug and material and in-eye trigger mechanisms, using ophthalmic dyes as a surrogate, provides the basis of knowledge necessary to design ocular drug delivery vehicles for in-eye release in a controllable manner.

Impact of inter-modal four-wave mixing on the performance of mode- and wavelength-division-multiplexing systems

In this paper, we investigate the impact of inter-modal four-wave mixing on mode- and wavelength-division-multiplexing systems. A set of coupled nonlinear Schrödinger equations, including linear mode coupling, is derived allowing to isolate the inter-modal four-wave mixing terms. The efficiency of inter-modal four-wave mixing between degenerate LP modes is found to be significantly higher than the intra-modal four-wave mixing efficiency. However, it is shown that the inter-modal four-wave mixing efficiency between degenerate modes is significantly reduced by the linear mode coupling.

Numerical modelling of multimode fibre-optic communication lines

The results of numerical modelling of nonlinear propagation of an optical signal in multimode fibres with a small differential group delay are presented. It is found that the dependence of the error vector magnitude (EVM) on the differential group delay can be reduced by increasing the number of ADC samples per symbol in the numerical implementation of the differential group delay compensation algorithm in the receiver. The possibility of using multimode fibres with a small differential group delay for data transmission in modern digital communication systems is demonstrated. It is shown that with increasing number of modes the strong coupling regime provides a lower EVM level than the weak coupling one.

Upgrading legacy long-haul WDM systems through unbalancing the proportion of 1s and 0s in the transmitted data

We present experimental results for wavelength-division multiplexed (WDM) transmission performance using unbalanced proportions of 1s and 0s in pseudo-random bit sequence (PRBS) data. This investigation simulates the effect of local, in time, data unbalancing which occurs in some coding systems such as forward error correction when extra bits are added to the WDM data stream. We show that such local unbalancing, which would practically give a time-dependent error-rate, can be employed to improve the legacy long-haul WDM system performance if the system is allowed to operate in the nonlinear power region. We use a recirculating loop to simulate a long-haul fibre system.

The Socioeconomic Background of the Divergence of Belarusian and Ukrainian Political Systems

The aim of this paper is to analyze the political, social and economic background of the divergence of Belarusian and Ukrainian transitions. We focus on Belarus in order to find explanation for questions such as why could Lukashenko remain the authoritarian leader of Belarus, while in Ukraine the position of the political elite had proved less stable and collapsed in 2004. On the theoretical framework of elite-sociology, we seek to determine whether the internal factors (as macroeconomic conditions, standard of living, the oppressive nature of the political system and the structure of the political elite) play a significant role in the operation of the domino effect. This article emphasises the determining role of immanent internal factors, thus the political stability in Belarus can be explained by the role of the suppressing political regime, the hindrance of democratic rights and the relatively good living conditions that followed the transformational recession. Whilst in Ukraine, the markedly different circumstances brought forth the success of the Orange Revolution.

Social construction of Geographic Information Systems. (Volumes I and II)

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is an emerging information technology (IT) which promises to have large scale influences in how spatially distributed resources are managed. It has had applications in the management of issues as diverse as recovering from the disaster of Hurricane Andrew to aiding military operations in Desert Storm. Implementation of GIS systems is an important issue because there are high cost and time involvement in setting them up. An important component of the implementation problem is the "meaning" different groups of people who are influencing the implementation give to the technology. The research was based on the theory of (theoretical stance to the problem was based on the) "Social Construction of Knowledge" systems which assumes knowledge systems are subject to sociological analysis both in usage and in content. An interpretive research approach was adopted to inductively derive a model which explains how the "meanings" of a GIS are socially constructed. The research design entailed a comparative case analysis over two county sites which were using the same GIS for a variety of purposes. A total of 75 in-depth interviews were conducted to elicit interpretations of GIS. Results indicate that differences in how geographers and data-processors view the technology lead to different implementation patterns in the two sites.

Characterization of design and economic sensitivity of vapor phase carbon adsorption systems to environmental uncertainties

Vapor phase carbon adsorption systems are used to remove aromatics, aliphatics, and halogenated hydrocarbons. The adsorption capacity of granular activated carbon is reduced when environmental parameters (temperature, pressure, and humidity) interfere with homogeneous surface diffusion and pore distribution dynamics. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of parametric uncertainties in adsorption efficiency. ^ Modified versions of the Langmuir isotherm in conjunction with thermodynamic equations described gaseous adsorption of single component influent onto microporous media. Experimental test results derived from Wang et al. (1999) simulated adsorption kinetics while the Myer and monsoon Langmuir constant accounted for isothermal gas compression and energetic heterogeneity under thermodynamic equilibrium conditions. Responsiveness of adsorption capacity to environmental uncertainties was analyzed by statistical sensitivity and modeled by breakthrough curves. Results indicated that extensive fluctuations in adsorption capacity significantly reduced carbon consumption while isothermal variations had a pronounced effect on saturation capacity. ^

Quantifying the effects of temperature and concentration on variable-density flow in numerical modeling of groundwater systems: Implications for predictive uncertainty and data collection

Groundwater systems of different densities are often mathematically modeled to understand and predict environmental behavior such as seawater intrusion or submarine groundwater discharge. Additional data collection may be justified if it will cost-effectively aid in reducing the uncertainty of a model's prediction. The collection of salinity, as well as, temperature data could aid in reducing predictive uncertainty in a variable-density model. However, before numerical models can be created, rigorous testing of the modeling code needs to be completed. This research documents the benchmark testing of a new modeling code, SEAWAT Version 4. The benchmark problems include various combinations of density-dependent flow resulting from variations in concentration and temperature. The verified code, SEAWAT, was then applied to two different hydrological analyses to explore the capacity of a variable-density model to guide data collection. ^ The first analysis tested a linear method to guide data collection by quantifying the contribution of different data types and locations toward reducing predictive uncertainty in a nonlinear variable-density flow and transport model. The relative contributions of temperature and concentration measurements, at different locations within a simulated carbonate platform, for predicting movement of the saltwater interface were assessed. Results from the method showed that concentration data had greater worth than temperature data in reducing predictive uncertainty in this case. Results also indicated that a linear method could be used to quantify data worth in a nonlinear model. ^ The second hydrological analysis utilized a model to identify the transient response of the salinity, temperature, age, and amount of submarine groundwater discharge to changes in tidal ocean stage, seasonal temperature variations, and different types of geology. The model was compared to multiple kinds of data to (1) calibrate and verify the model, and (2) explore the potential for the model to be used to guide the collection of data using techniques such as electromagnetic resistivity, thermal imagery, and seepage meters. Results indicated that the model can be used to give insight to submarine groundwater discharge and be used to guide data collection. ^

Resistance Performances: (Re)constructing Spaces of Resistance and Contention in the 2010-2011 University of Puerto Rico Student Movement

On the night of April 20, 2010, a group of students from the University of Puerto Rico (UPR), Río Piedras campus, met to organize an indefinite strike that quickly broadened into a defense of accessible public higher education of excellence as a fundamental right and not a privilege. Although the history of student activism in the UPR can be traced back to the early 1900s, the 2010-2011 strike will be remembered for the student activists’ use of new media technologies as resources that rapidly prompted and aided the numerous protests. This activist research entailed a critical ethnography and a critical discourse analysis (CDA) of traditional and alternative media coverage and treatment during the 2010 -2011 UPR student strike. I examined the use of the 2010-2011 UPR student activists’ resistance performances in constructing local, corporeal, and virtual spaces of resistance and contention during their movement. In particular, I analyzed the different tactics and strategies of resistance or repertoire of collective actions that student activists used (e.g. new media technologies) to frame their collective identities via alternative news media’s (re)presentation of the strike, while juxtaposing the university administration’s counter-resistance performances in counter-framing the student activists’ collective identity via traditional news media representations of the strike. I illustrated how both traditional and alternative media (re)presentations of student activism developed, maintained, and/or modified students activists’ collective identities. As such, the UPR student activism’s success should not be measured by the sum of demands granted, but by the sense of community achieved and the establishment of networks that continue to create resistance and change. These networks add to the debate surrounding Internet activism and its impact on student activism. Ultimately, the results of this study highlight the important role student movements have had in challenging different types of government policies and raising awareness of the importance of an accessible public higher education of excellence.