Risk-based modelling of diffuse land use impacts from rural landscapes upon salmonid fry abundance

Research has demonstrated that landscape or watershed scale processes can influence instream aquatic ecosystems, in terms of the impacts of delivery of fine sediment, solutes and organic matter. Testing such impacts upon populations of organisms (i.e. at the catchment scale) has not proven straightforward and differences have emerged in the conclusions reached. This is: (1) partly because different studies have focused upon different scales of enquiry; but also (2) because the emphasis upon upstream land cover has rarely addressed the extent to which such land covers are hydrologically connected, and hence able to deliver diffuse pollution, to the drainage network However, there is a third issue. In order to develop suitable hydrological models, we need to conceptualise the process cascade. To do this, we need to know what matters to the organism being impacted by the hydrological system, such that we can identify which processes need to be modelled. Acquiring such knowledge is not easy, especially for organisms like fish that might occupy very different locations in the river over relatively short periods of time. However, and inevitably, hydrological modellers have started by building up piecemeal the aspects of the problem that we think matter to fish. Herein, we report two developments: (a) for the case of sediment associated diffuse pollution from agriculture, a risk-based modelling framework, SCIMAP, has been developed, which is distinct because it has an explicit focus upon hydrological connectivity; and (b) we use spatially distributed ecological data to infer the processes and the associated process parameters that matter to salmonid fry. We apply the model to spatially distributed salmon and fry data from the River Eden, Cumbria, England. The analysis shows, quite surprisingly, that arable land covers are relatively unimportant as drivers of fry abundance. What matters most is intensive pasture, a land cover that could be associated with a number of stressors on salmonid fry (e.g. pesticides, fine sediment) and which allows us to identify a series of risky field locations, where this land cover is readily connected to the river system by overland flow. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling habitat-suitability using museum collections: an example with three sympatric Apodemus species from the Alps

Aim, Location Although the alpine mouse Apodemus alpicola has been given species status since 1989, no distribution map has ever been constructed for this endemic alpine rodent in Switzerland. Based on redetermined museum material and using the Ecological-Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA), habitat-suitability maps were computed for A. alpicola, and also for the co-occurring A. flavicollis and A. sylvaticus. Methods In the particular case of habitat suitability models, classical approaches (GLMs, GAMs, discriminant analysis, etc.) generally require presence and absence data. The presence records provided by museums can clearly give useful information about species distribution and ecology and have already been used for knowledge-based mapping. In this paper, we apply the ENFA which requires only presence data, to build a habitat-suitability map of three species of Apodemus on the basis of museum skull collections. Results Interspecific niche comparisons showed that A. alpicola is very specialized concerning habitat selection, meaning that its habitat differs unequivocally from the average conditions in Switzerland, while both A. flavicollis and A. sylvaticus could be considered as 'generalists' in the study area. Main conclusions Although an adequate sampling design is the best way to collect ecological data for predictive modelling, this is a time and money consuming process and there are cases where time is simply not available, as for instance with endangered species conservation. On the other hand, museums, herbariums and other similar institutions are treasuring huge presence data sets. By applying the ENFA to such data it is possible to rapidly construct a habitat suitability model. The ENFA method not only provides two key measurements regarding the niche of a species (i.e. marginality and specialization), but also has ecological meaning, and allows the scientist to compare directly the niches of different species.

The central role of mosquito cytochrome P450 CYP6Zs in insecticide detoxification revealed by functional expression and structural modelling.

The resistance of mosquitoes to chemical insecticides is threatening vector control programmes worldwide. Cytochrome P450 monooxygenases (CYPs) are known to play a major role in insecticide resistance, allowing resistant insects to metabolize insecticides at a higher rate. Among them, members of the mosquito CYP6Z subfamily, like Aedes aegypti CYP6Z8 and its Anopheles gambiae orthologue CYP6Z2, have been frequently associated with pyrethroid resistance. However, their role in the pyrethroid degradation pathway remains unclear. In the present study, we created a genetically modified yeast strain overexpressing Ae. aegypti cytochrome P450 reductase and CYP6Z8, thereby producing the first mosquito P450-CPR (NADPH-cytochrome P450-reductase) complex in a yeast recombinant system. The results of the present study show that: (i) CYP6Z8 metabolizes PBAlc (3-phenoxybenzoic alcohol) and PBAld (3-phenoxybenzaldehyde), common pyrethroid metabolites produced by carboxylesterases, producing PBA (3-phenoxybenzoic acid); (ii) CYP6Z8 transcription is induced by PBAlc, PBAld and PBA; (iii) An. gambiae CYP6Z2 metabolizes PBAlc and PBAld in the same way; (iv) PBA is the major metabolite produced in vivo and is excreted without further modification; and (v) in silico modelling of substrate-enzyme interactions supports a similar role of other mosquito CYP6Zs in pyrethroid degradation. By playing a pivotal role in the degradation of pyrethroid insecticides, mosquito CYP6Zs thus represent good targets for mosquito-resistance management strategies.

FABP4 Dynamics in Obesity: Discrepancies in Adipose Tissue and Liver Expression Regarding Circulating Plasma Levels.

BACKGROUND FABP4 is predominantly expressed in adipose tissue, and its circulating levels are linked with obesity and a poor atherogenic profile. OBJECTIVE In patients with a wide BMI range, we analyze FABP4 expression in adipose and hepatic tissues in the settings of obesity and insulin resistance. Associations between FABP4 expression in adipose tissue and the FABP4 plasma level as well as the main adipogenic and lipolytic genes expressed in adipose tissue were also analyzed. METHODS The expression of several lipogenic, lipolytic, PPAR family and FABP family genes was analyzed by real time PCR. FABP4 protein expression in total adipose tissues and its fractions were determined by western blot. RESULTS In obesity FABP4 expression was down-regulated (at both mRNA and protein levels), with its levels mainly predicted by ATGL and inversely by the HOMA-IR index. The BMI appeared as the only determinant of the FABP4 variation in both adipose tissue depots. FABP4 plasma levels showed a significant progressive increase according to BMI but no association was detected between FABP4 circulating levels and SAT or VAT FABP4 gene expression. The gene expression of FABP1, FABP4 and FABP5 in hepatic tissue was significantly higher in tissue from the obese IR patients compared to the non-IR group. CONCLUSION The inverse pattern in FABP4 expression between adipose and hepatic tissue observed in morbid obese patients, regarding the IR context, suggests that both tissues may act in a balanced manner. These differences may help us to understand the discrepancies between circulating plasma levels and adipose tissue expression in obesity.

The depuration dynamics of oysters (Crassostrea gigas) artificially contaminated with hepatitis A virus and human adenovirus

Within the country of Brazil, Santa Catarina is a major shellfish producer. Detection of viral contamination is an important step to ensure production quality and consumer safety during this process. In this study, we used a depuration system and ultraviolet (UV) disinfection to eliminate viral pathogens from artificially infected oysters and analysed the results. Specifically, the oysters were contaminated with hepatitis A virus (HAV) or human adenovirus type 5 (HAdV5). After viral infection, the oysters were placed into a depuration tank and harvested after 48, 72 and 96 h. After sampling, various oyster tissues were dissected and homogenised and the viruses were eluted with alkaline conditions and precipitated with polyethylene glycol. The oyster samples were evaluated by cell culture methods, as well as polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and quantitative-PCR. Moreover, at the end of the depuration period, the disinfected seawater was collected and analysed by PCR. The molecular assays showed that the HAdV5 genome was present in all of the depuration time samples, while the HAV genome was undetectable after 72 h of depuration. However, viral viability tests (integrated cell culture-PCR and immunofluorescence assay) indicated that both viruses were inactivated with 96 h of seawater recirculation. In conclusion, after 96 h of UV treatment, the depuration system studied in this work purified oysters that were artificially contaminated with HAdV5 and HAV.

NO rebinding to myoglobin: a reactive molecular dynamics study.

The rebinding of NO to myoglobin after photolysis is studied using the 'reactive molecular dynamics' method. In this approach the energy of the system is evaluated on two potential energy surfaces that include the heme-ligand interactions which change between liganded and unliganded myoglobin. This makes it possible to take into account in a simple way, the high dimensionality of the transition seam connecting the reactant and product states. The dynamics of the dissociated NO molecules are examined, and the geometrical and energetic properties of the transition seam are studied. Analysis of the frequency of recrossing shows that the height of the effective rebinding barrier is dependent on the time after photodissociation. This effect is due mainly to protein relaxation and may contribute to the experimentally observed non-exponential rebinding rate of NO, as has been suggested previously.

Modelling world investment markets using threshold conditional correlation models

In this paper we propose a parsimonious regime-switching approach to model the correlations between assets, the threshold conditional correlation (TCC) model. This method allows the dynamics of the correlations to change from one state (or regime) to another as a function of observable transition variables. Our model is similar in spirit to Silvennoinen and Teräsvirta (2009) and Pelletier (2006) but with the appealing feature that it does not suffer from the course of dimensionality. In particular, estimation of the parameters of the TCC involves a simple grid search procedure. In addition, it is easy to guarantee a positive definite correlation matrix because the TCC estimator is given by the sample correlation matrix, which is positive definite by construction. The methodology is illustrated by evaluating the behaviour of international equities, govenrment bonds and major exchange rates, first separately and then jointly. We also test and allow for different parts in the correlation matrix to be governed by different transition variables. For this, we estimate a multi-threshold TCC specification. Further, we evaluate the economic performance of the TCC model against a constant conditional correlation (CCC) estimator using a Diebold-Mariano type test. We conclude that threshold correlation modelling gives rise to a significant reduction in portfolio´s variance.

Modelling the Human Values Scale from Consumers Transactional Data Bases

The main objective of this paper aims at developing a methodology that takes into account the human factor extracted from the data base used by the recommender systems, and which allow to resolve the specific problems of prediction and recommendation. In this work, we propose to extract the user's human values scale from the data base of the users, to improve their suitability in open environments, such as the recommender systems. For this purpose, the methodology is applied with the data of the user after interacting with the system. The methodology is exemplified with a case study

Computational drug design strategies applied to the modelling of human immunodeficiency virus-1 reverse transcriptase inhibitors

Reverse transcriptase (RT) is a multifunctional enzyme in the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 life cycle and represents a primary target for drug discovery efforts against HIV-1 infection. Two classes of RT inhibitors, the nucleoside RT inhibitors (NRTIs) and the nonnucleoside transcriptase inhibitors are prominently used in the highly active antiretroviral therapy in combination with other anti-HIV drugs. However, the rapid emergence of drug-resistant viral strains has limited the successful rate of the anti-HIV agents. Computational methods are a significant part of the drug design process and indispensable to study drug resistance. In this review, recent advances in computer-aided drug design for the rational design of new compounds against HIV-1 RT using methods such as molecular docking, molecular dynamics, free energy calculations, quantitative structure-activity relationships, pharmacophore modelling and absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion and toxicity prediction are discussed. Successful applications of these methodologies are also highlighted.

Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodelling approach based on population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics

In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.

Effective size of two feral domestic cat populations (Felis catus L): effect of the mating system.

A variety of behavioural traits have substantial effects on the gene dynamics and genetic structure of local populations. The mating system is a plastic trait that varies with environmental conditions in the domestic cat (Felis catus) allowing an intraspecific comparison of the impact of this feature on genetic characteristics of the population. To assess the potential effect of the heterogenity of males' contribution to the next generation on variance effective size, we applied the ecological approach of Nunney & Elam (1994) based upon a demographic and behavioural study, and the genetic 'temporal methods' of Waples (1989) and Berthier et al. (2002) using microsatellite markers. The two cat populations studied were nearly closed, similar in size and survival parameters, but differed in their mating system. Immigration appeared extremely restricted in both cases due to environmental and social constraints. As expected, the ratio of effective size to census number (Ne/N) was higher in the promiscuous cat population (harmonic mean = 42%) than in the polygynous one (33%), when Ne was calculated from the ecological method. Only the genetic results based on Waples' estimator were consistent with the ecological results, but failed to evidence an effect of the mating system. Results based on the estimation of Berthier et al. (2002) were extremely variable, with Ne sometimes exceeding census size. Such low reliability in the genetic results should retain attention for conservation purposes.

Overcoming the rare species modelling paradox: test of a novel hierarchical framework with an Iberian endemic plant

Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.

Statistical evidences of cyclic changes in volcanic gas chemistry composition by inverse modelling

The identification of compositional changes in fumarolic gases of active and quiescent volcanoes is one of the mostimportant targets in monitoring programs. From a general point of view, many systematic (often cyclic) and randomprocesses control the chemistry of gas discharges, making difficult to produce a convincing mathematical-statisticalmodelling.Changes in the chemical composition of volcanic gases sampled at Vulcano Island (Aeolian Arc, Sicily, Italy) fromeight different fumaroles located in the northern sector of the summit crater (La Fossa) have been analysed byconsidering their dependence from time in the period 2000-2007. Each intermediate chemical composition has beenconsidered as potentially derived from the contribution of the two temporal extremes represented by the 2000 and 2007samples, respectively, by using inverse modelling methodologies for compositional data. Data pertaining to fumarolesF5 and F27, located on the rim and in the inner part of La Fossa crater, respectively, have been used to achieve theproposed aim. The statistical approach has allowed us to highlight the presence of random and not random fluctuations,features useful to understand how the volcanic system works, opening new perspectives in sampling strategies and inthe evaluation of the natural risk related to a quiescent volcano

A 2D/3D image analysis system to track fluorescently labeled structures in rod-shaped cells: application to measure spindle pole asymmetry during mitosis.

BACKGROUND: The yeast Schizosaccharomyces pombe is frequently used as a model for studying the cell cycle. The cells are rod-shaped and divide by medial fission. The process of cell division, or cytokinesis, is controlled by a network of signaling proteins called the Septation Initiation Network (SIN); SIN proteins associate with the SPBs during nuclear division (mitosis). Some SIN proteins associate with both SPBs early in mitosis, and then display strongly asymmetric signal intensity at the SPBs in late mitosis, just before cytokinesis. This asymmetry is thought to be important for correct regulation of SIN signaling, and coordination of cytokinesis and mitosis. In order to study the dynamics of organelles or large protein complexes such as the spindle pole body (SPB), which have been labeled with a fluorescent protein tag in living cells, a number of the image analysis problems must be solved; the cell outline must be detected automatically, and the position and signal intensity associated with the structures of interest within the cell must be determined. RESULTS: We present a new 2D and 3D image analysis system that permits versatile and robust analysis of motile, fluorescently labeled structures in rod-shaped cells. We have designed an image analysis system that we have implemented as a user-friendly software package allowing the fast and robust image-analysis of large numbers of rod-shaped cells. We have developed new robust algorithms, which we combined with existing methodologies to facilitate fast and accurate analysis. Our software permits the detection and segmentation of rod-shaped cells in either static or dynamic (i.e. time lapse) multi-channel images. It enables tracking of two structures (for example SPBs) in two different image channels. For 2D or 3D static images, the locations of the structures are identified, and then intensity values are extracted together with several quantitative parameters, such as length, width, cell orientation, background fluorescence and the distance between the structures of interest. Furthermore, two kinds of kymographs of the tracked structures can be established, one representing the migration with respect to their relative position, the other representing their individual trajectories inside the cell. This software package, called "RodCellJ", allowed us to analyze a large number of S. pombe cells to understand the rules that govern SIN protein asymmetry. CONCLUSIONS: "RodCell" is freely available to the community as a package of several ImageJ plugins to simultaneously analyze the behavior of a large number of rod-shaped cells in an extensive manner. The integration of different image-processing techniques in a single package, as well as the development of novel algorithms does not only allow to speed up the analysis with respect to the usage of existing tools, but also accounts for higher accuracy. Its utility was demonstrated on both 2D and 3D static and dynamic images to study the septation initiation network of the yeast Schizosaccharomyces pombe. More generally, it can be used in any kind of biological context where fluorescent-protein labeled structures need to be analyzed in rod-shaped cells. AVAILABILITY: RodCellJ is freely available under http://bigwww.epfl.ch/algorithms.html, (after acceptance of the publication).

Exploring unfrequent events with accelerated molecular dynamics simulations: from photochemistry to drug design

La meva incorporació al grup de recerca del Prof. McCammon (University of California San Diego) en qualitat d’investigador post doctoral amb una beca Beatriu de Pinós, va tenir lloc el passat 1 de desembre de 2010; on vaig dur a terme les meves tasques de recerca fins al darrer 1 d’abril de 2012. El Prof. McCammon és un referent mundial en l’aplicació de simulacions de dinàmica molecular (MD) en sistemes biològics d’interès humà. La contribució més important del Prof. McCammon en la simulació de sistemes biològics és el desenvolupament del mètode de dinàmiques moleculars accelerades (AMD). Les simulacions MD convencionals, les quals estan limitades a l’escala de temps del nanosegon (~10-9s), no son adients per l’estudi de sistemes biològics rellevants a escales de temps mes llargues (μs, ms...). AMD permet explorar fenòmens moleculars poc freqüents però que son clau per l’enteniment de molts sistemes biològics; fenòmens que no podrien ser observats d’un altre manera. Durant la meva estada a la “University of California San Diego”, vaig treballar en diferent aplicacions de les simulacions AMD, incloent fotoquímica i disseny de fàrmacs per ordinador. Concretament, primer vaig desenvolupar amb èxit una combinació dels mètodes AMD i simulacions Car-Parrinello per millorar l’exploració de camins de desactivació (interseccions còniques) en reaccions químiques fotoactivades. En segon lloc, vaig aplicar tècniques estadístiques (Replica Exchange) amb AMD en la descripció d’interaccions proteïna-lligand. Finalment, vaig dur a terme un estudi de disseny de fàrmacs per ordinador en la proteïna-G Rho (involucrada en el desenvolupament de càncer humà) combinant anàlisis estructurals i simulacions AMD. Els projectes en els quals he participat han estat publicats (o estan encara en procés de revisió) en diferents revistes científiques, i han estat presentats en diferents congressos internacionals. La memòria inclosa a continuació conté més detalls de cada projecte esmentat.