Systems thinking: learning or driving?

The ability to foresee how behaviour of a system arises from the interaction of its components over time - i.e. its dynamic complexity – is seen an important ability to take effective decisions in our turbulent world. Dynamic complexity emerges frequently from interrelated simple structures, such as stocks and flows, feedbacks and delays (Forrester, 1961). Common sense assumes an intuitive understanding of their dynamic behaviour. However, recent researches have pointed to a persistent and systematic error in people understanding of those building blocks of complex systems. This paper describes an empirical study concerning the native ability to understand systems thinking concepts. Two different groups - one, academic, the other, professional – submitted to four tasks, proposed by Sweeney and Sterman (2000) and Sterman (2002). The results confirm a poor intuitive understanding of the basic systems concepts, even when subjects have background in mathematics and sciences.

A system dynamics-based simulation

This study develops a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the balanced scorecard approach by means of a system dynamics and feedback learning perspective. Presumably, the balanced scorecard leads to a better understanding of context, allowing managers to externalize and improve their mental models. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of the balanced scorecard approach on mental models and performance. A test based on a simulation experiment that uses a system dynamics model is performed. The experiment included three types of parameters: financial indicators; balanced scorecard indicators; and balanced scorecard indicators with the aid of a strategy map review. Two out of the three hypotheses were confirmed. It was concluded that a strategy map review positively influences mental model similarity, and mental model similarity positively influences performance.

Strategy Lab Experiences: Bathtub Dynamics

As the world changes ever faster, managers increasingly recognize the complexity and turbulence of the business systems in which they are embedded. The management problems are dynamic, while the dynamic complexity comes frequently from few variables with circle and delays interrelations that introduce nonlinearities.The present paper describes a research conducted in Portugal with two different groups - one, academic; the other, professional - where we explored the subjects’ understanding of some basic systems thinking concepts such as stock-flow relationship, feedback processes and time delays.

Green microfinance: the case of the Cresol System in Southern Brazil

Climate change which until recently seemed a luxury for the microfinance sector, now appears to be crucial for the future of the sector. Due to their low adaptive capacity, the millions of MF clients worldwide happen to be the most vulnerable to a changing climate. Adapting previous analysis conducted in Nepal and Bangladesh by Agrawala and Maëlis (2010) to the Brazilian context, in this inductive qualitative study we aim to assess potential synergies between MF and CC actions and what strategies can be harnessed to better respond to CC vulnerabilities at client/MF level. To do so, we investigated the case of the second largest rural microcredit programme in Brazil, Sistema Cresol de Cooperativas de Crédito Rural com Interação Solidária. Albeit important overlaps between Cresol's product envelope and CC strategies exist, there is still room to realise synergies to both mitigate a new potential source of risk to Cresol's portfolio and to increase clients' adaptive capacity.

Studies on mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) and anthropic environment: 2 - Immature stages research at a rice irrigation system location in South-Eastern Brazil

A relation between a rice irrigation system and mosquito breeding was established in a study undertaken at the Ribeira Valley Experimental Station, from January through December 1992. Flooding favoured Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) and Culex (Melanoconion) species, while empty paddies condition were propitious to Aedes scapularis and Culex (Culex) species. Compared with a more primitive area of the same region, several species showed high a degree of adaptation to the anthropic environment. Among them, Anopheles albitarsis, a potential malaria vector that breeds in the irrigation system, has shown immature stage production thirteen times higher than at the natural breeding sites. In addition, Ae. scapularis, An. oswaldoi, Cx. bastagarius, and Cx. chidesteri presented high levels of synanthropy.

Low Complexity Intra Mode Selection for Efficient Distributed Video Coding

Motion compensated frame interpolation (MCFI) is one of the most efficient solutions to generate side information (SI) in the context of distributed video coding. However, it creates SI with rather significant motion compensated errors for some frame regions while rather small for some other regions depending on the video content. In this paper, a low complexity Infra mode selection algorithm is proposed to select the most 'critical' blocks in the WZ frame and help the decoder with some reliable data for those blocks. For each block, the novel coding mode selection algorithm estimates the encoding rate for the Intra based and WZ coding modes and determines the best coding mode while maintaining a low encoder complexity. The proposed solution is evaluated in terms of rate-distortion performance with improvements up to 1.2 dB regarding a WZ coding mode only solution.

Studies on mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) and anthropic environment: 3- Survey of adult stages at the rice irrigation system and the emergence of Anopheles albitarsis in South-Eastern, Brazil

A study of adult Culicidae ecology was carried out from January 1992 through January 1993 at the rice irrigation system of the Ribeira Valley Experimental Station. The adaptation of Anopheles albitarsis to the anthropic environment became evident through the adult collections made at its various habitats represented by the irrigation system and the edge of the residual pond, as well as at those made within the local patchy residual woods. Other potential disease vectors were prevalent in the irrigated system too. There were Aedes scapularis, Culex nigripalpus and Cx. ribeirensis that were collected at various habitats. Remarkable differences among their prevalences were obtained such as between the natural forest and anthropic environments. In the former An. albitarsis was practically non-existent, thus suggesting that it might be considered as eusynathropic. As the populations of other species seemed to increase in the anthropic environment, they may be regarded as hemisynanthropes. Observations suggest the hypothesis that the development of irrigated land may be a factor in the emergence of An. albitarsis, and some other species, as well as the possibility of an increase in the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria.

Die Surface Designer System

This paper defines Die Surface Designer (DSD) System for fast draw die in the product development feasibility phase on surfaces coming from styling. We propose a CAD integration, for better support the design process in industry, particularly on the development of new products in automotive sector. The DSD system intends to reduce the lead time by providing and integrating flexible and efficient capabilities for testing early concepts from surface analysis points of view in automotive product development.

SbCl5—wet acetonitrile: a new system for chemoselective O-desilylation

Abstract—A new efficient method for deprotection of TBDMS derivatives of phenols, primary alcohols, carboxylic acids and secondary amines, consisting of SbCl5 and MeCN with 0.1% water (w/v), is reported. It effects inter alia desilylation of a CH2OTBDMS group in the presence of a ketal function.

Mobi-system: assistente pessoal de viagem

Este trabalho sugere uma solução de integração de dados em tempo real no contexto dos transportes públicos. Com o aumento das alternativas oferecidas aos utilizadores dos transportes públicos é importante que estes conheçam todas as alternativas com base em informação em tempo real para que realizem a escolha que melhor se enquadre às suas necessidades. Por outro lado, os operadores de transportes públicos deverão ser capazes de disponibilizar toda a informação pretendida com o mínimo de esforço ou de alterações ao sistema que têm implementado. Neste trabalho serão utilizadas ferramentas que permitem fornecer uma visão homogénea das várias fontes de dados heterogéneas, sendo essa homogeneidade o ponto de integração de todas as fontes de dados com as aplicações cliente.

Contratos bilaterais em mercados multi-agente de energia eléctrica: protocolo de ofertas alternadas

A liberalização do sector eléctrico, e a consequente criação de mercados de energia eléctrica regulados e liberalizados, mudou a forma de comercialização da electricidade. Em particular, permitiu a entrada de empresas nas actividades de produção e comercialização, aumentando a competitividade e assegurando a liberdade de escolha dos consumidores, para decidir o fornecedor de electricidade que pretenderem. A competitividade no sector eléctrico aumentou a necessidade das empresas que o integram a proporem preços mais aliciantes (do que os preços propostos pelos concorrentes), e contribuiu para o desenvolvimento de estratégias de mercado que atraiam mais clientes e aumentem a eficiência energética e económica. A comercialização de electricidade pode ser realizada em mercados organizados ou através de contratação directa entre comercializadores e consumidores, utilizando os contratos bilaterais físicos. Estes contratos permitem a negociação dos preços de electricidade entre os comercializadores e os consumidores. Actualmente, existem várias ferramentas computacionais para fazer a simulação de mercados de energia eléctrica. Os simuladores existentes permitem simulações de transacções em bolsas de energia, negociação de preços através de contratos bilaterais, e análises técnicas a redes de energia. No entanto, devido à complexidade dos sistemas eléctricos, esses simuladores apresentam algumas limitações. Esta dissertação apresenta um simulador de contratos bilaterais em mercados de energia eléctrica, sendo dando ênfase a um protocolo de ofertas alternadas, desenvolvido através da tecnologia multi-agente. Em termos sucintos, um protocolo de ofertas alternadas é um protocolo de interacção que define as regras da negociação entre um agente vendedor (por exemplo um retalhista) e um agente comprador (por exemplo um consumidor final). Aplicou-se o simulador na resolução de um caso prático, baseado em dados reais. Os resultados obtidos permitem concluir que o simulador, apesar de simplificado, pode ser uma ferramenta importante na ajuda à tomada de decisões inerentes à negociação de contratos bilaterais em mercados de electricidade.

Lightning Data Observed With Lightning Location System in Portugal

This paper presents an investigation into cloud-to-ground lightning activity over the continental territory of Portugal with data collected by the national Lightning Location System. The Lightning Location System in Portugal is first presented. Analyses about geographical, seasonal, and polarity distribution of cloud-to-ground lightning activity and cumulative probability of peak current are carried out. An overall ground flash density map is constructed from the database, which contains the information of more than five years and almost four million records. This map is compared with the thunderstorm days map, produced by the Portuguese Institute of Meteorology, and with the orographic map of Portugal. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

Measuring and Controlling the Chaotic Motion of Profits

The study of economic systems has generated deep interest in exploring the complexity of chaotic motions in economy. Due to important developments in nonlinear dynamics, the last two decades have witnessed strong revival of interest in nonlinear endogenous business chaotic models. The inability to predict the behavior of dynamical systems in the presence of chaos suggests the application of chaos control methods, when we are more interested in obtaining regular behavior. In the present article, we study a specific economic model from the literature. More precisely, a system of three ordinary differential equations gather the variables of profits, reinvestments and financial flow of borrowings in the structure of a firm. Firstly, using results of symbolic dynamics, we characterize the topological entropy and the parameter space ordering of kneading sequences, associated with one-dimensional maps that reproduce significant aspects of the model dynamics. The analysis of the variation of this numerical invariant, in some realistic system parameter region, allows us to quantify and to distinguish different chaotic regimes. Finally, we show that complicated behavior arising from the chaotic firm model can be controlled without changing its original properties and the dynamics can be turned into the desired attracting time periodic motion (a stable steady state or into a regular cycle). The orbit stabilization is illustrated by the application of a feedback control technique initially developed by Romeiras et al. [1992]. This work provides another illustration of how our understanding of economic models can be enhanced by the theoretical and numerical investigation of nonlinear dynamical systems modeled by ordinary differential equations.

Computational evaluation of hydraulic system behaviour with entrapped air under rapid pressurization

The pressurization of hydraulic systems containing entrapped air is considered a critical condition for the infrastructure's security due to transient pressure variations often occurred. The objective of the present study is the computational evaluation of trends observed in variation of maximum surge pressure resulting from rapid pressurizations. The comparison of the results with those obtained in previous studies is also undertaken. A brief state of art in this domain is presented. This research work is applied to an experimental system having entrapped air in the top of a vertical pipe section. The evaluation is developed through the elastic model based on the method of characteristics, considering a moving liquid boundary, with the results being compared with those achieved with the rigid liquid column model.

Sensor element for a metal-insulator-semiconductor camera system (MISCam)

We discuss the operation of a new type of optical sensor (MISCam) based on a metal-insulator-semiconductor (MIS) structure. The operation principle relies on light-induced changes of the band bending and barrier height at the interface between semiconductor and insulator. An image is obtained from the quenching of the ac signal in analogy to the principle of the laser-scanned photodiode (LSP). Lateral resolution depends on the semiconductor material chosen. We have characterised the MIS structures by C-V, I-V, and spectral response measurements testing different types of insulators like a-Si3N4, SiO2, and AlN. The presence of slow interface charges allows for image memory. Colour sensors can be realised by controlling sign and magnitude of the electric fields in the base and the interface region.