Artificial neural networks (ANN): prediction of sensory measurements from instrumental data

The objective of this study was to predict by means of Artificial Neural Network (ANN), multilayer perceptrons, the texture attributes of light cheesecurds perceived by trained judges based on instrumental texture measurements. Inputs to the network were the instrumental texture measurements of light cheesecurd (imitative and fundamental parameters). Output variables were the sensory attributes consistency and spreadability. Nine light cheesecurd formulations composed of different combinations of fat and water were evaluated. The measurements obtained by the instrumental and sensory analyses of these formulations constituted the data set used for training and validation of the network. Network training was performed using a back-propagation algorithm. The network architecture selected was composed of 8-3-9-2 neurons in its layers, which quickly and accurately predicted the sensory texture attributes studied, showing a high correlation between the predicted and experimental values for the validation data set and excellent generalization ability, with a validation RMSE of 0.0506.

Modeling Energy Futures Returns With Markov Regime Switching Model

Financial time series have a tendency of abruptly changing their behavior and maintain this behavior for several consecutive periods, and commodity futures returns are not an exception. This quality proposes that nonlinear models, as opposed to linear models, can more accurately describe returns and volatility. Markov regime switching models are able to match this behavior and have become a popular way to model financial time series. This study uses Markov regime switching model to describe the behavior of energy futures returns on a commodity level, because studies show that commodity futures are a heterogeneous asset class. The purpose of this thesis is twofold. First, determine how many regimes characterize individual energy commodities’ returns in different return frequencies. Second, study the characteristics of these regimes. We extent the previous studies on the subject in two ways: We allow for the possibility that the number of regimes may exceed two, as well as conduct the research on individual commodities rather than on commodity indices or subgroups of these indices. We use daily, weekly and monthly time series of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, natural gas, heating oil and gasoil futures returns over 1994–2014, where available, to carry out the study. We apply the likelihood ratio test to determine the sufficient number of regimes for each commodity and data frequency. Then the time series are modeled with Markov regime switching model to obtain the return distribution characteristics of each regime, as well as the transition probabilities of moving between regimes. The results for the number of regimes suggest that daily energy futures return series consist of three to six regimes, whereas weekly and monthly returns for all energy commodities display only two regimes. When the number of regimes exceeds two, there is a tendency for the time series of energy commodities to form groups of regimes. These groups are usually quite persistent as a whole because probability of a regime switch inside the group is high. However, individual regimes in these groups are not persistent and the process oscillates between these regimes frequently. Regimes that are not part of any group are generally persistent, but show low ergodic probability, i.e. rarely prevail in the market. This study also suggests that energy futures return series characterized with two regimes do not necessarily display persistent bull and bear regimes. In fact, for the majority of time series, bearish regime is considerably less persistent. Rahoituksen aikasarjoilla on taipumus arvaamattomasti muuttaa käyttäytymistään ja jatkaa tätä uutta käyttäytymistä useiden periodien ajan, eivätkä hyödykefutuurien tuotot tee tähän poikkeusta. Tämän ominaisuuden johdosta lineaaristen mallien sijasta epälineaariset mallit pystyvät tarkemmin kuvailemaan esimerkiksi tuottojen jakauman parametreja. Markov regiiminvaihtomallit pystyvät vangitsemaan tämän ominaisuuden ja siksi niistä on tullut suosittuja rahoituksen aikasarjojen mallintamisessa. Tämä tutkimus käyttää Markov regiiminvaihtomallia kuvaamaan yksittäisten energiafutuurien tuottojen käyttäytymistä, sillä tutkimukset osoittavat hyödykefutuurien olevan hyvin heterogeeninen omaisuusluokka. Tutkimuksen tarkoitus on selvittää, kuinka monta regiimiä tarvitaan kuvaamaan energiafutuurien tuottoja eri tuottofrekvensseillä ja mitkä ovat näiden regiimien ominaisuudet. Aiempaa tutkimusta aiheesta laajennetaan määrittämällä regiimien lukumäärä tilastotieteellisen testauksen menetelmin sekä tutkimalla energiafutuureja yksittäin; ei indeksi- tai alaindeksitasolla. Tutkimuksessa käytetään päivä-, viikko- ja kuukausiaikasarjoja Brent-raakaöljyn, WTI-raakaöljyn, maakaasun, lämmitysöljyn ja polttoöljyn tuotoista aikaväliltä 1994–2014, siltä osin kuin aineistoa on saatavilla. Likelihood ratio -testin avulla estimoidaan kaikille aikasarjoille regiimien määrä,jonka jälkeen Markov regiiminvaihtomallia hyödyntäen määritetään yksittäisten regiimientuottojakaumien ominaisuudet sekä regiimien välinen transitiomatriisi. Tulokset regiimien lukumäärän osalta osoittavat, että energiafutuurien päiväkohtaisten tuottojen aikasarjoissa regiimien lukumäärä vaihtelee kolmen ja kuuden välillä. Viikko- ja kuukausituottojen kohdalla kaikkien energiafutuurien prosesseissa regiimien lukumäärä on kaksi. Kun regiimejä on enemmän kuin kaksi, on prosessilla taipumus muodostaa regiimeistä koostuvia ryhmiä. Prosessi pysyy ryhmän sisällä yleensä pitkään, koska todennäköisyys siirtyä ryhmään kuuluvien regiimien välillä on suuri. Yksittäiset regiimit ryhmän sisällä eivät kuitenkaan ole kovin pysyviä. Näin ollen prosessi vaihtelee ryhmän sisäisten regiimien välillä tiuhaan. Regiimit, jotka eivät kuulu ryhmään, ovat yleensä pysyviä, mutta prosessi ajautuu niihin vain harvoin, sillä todennäköisyys siirtyä muista regiimeistä niihin on pieni. Tutkimuksen tulokset osoittavat myös, että prosesseissa, joita ohjaa kaksi regiimiä, nämä regiimit eivät välttämättä ole pysyvät bull- ja bear-markkinatilanteet. Tulokset osoittavat sen sijaan, että bear-markkinatilanne on energiafutuureissa selvästi vähemmän pysyvä.

Energy Management System for LVDC Island Networks

Recent developments in power electronics technology have made it possible to develop competitive and reliable low-voltage DC (LVDC) distribution networks. Further, islanded microgrids—isolated small-scale localized distribution networks— have been proposed to reliably supply power using distributed generations. However, islanded operations face many issues such as power quality, voltage regulation, network stability, and protection. In this thesis, an energy management system (EMS) that ensures efficient energy and power balancing and voltage regulation has been proposed for an LVDC island network utilizing solar panels for electricity production and lead-acid batteries for energy storage. The EMS uses the master/slave method with robust communication infrastructure to control the production, storage, and loads. The logical basis for the EMS operations has been established by proposing functionalities of the network components as well as by defining appropriate operation modes that encompass all situations. During loss-of-powersupply periods, load prioritizations and disconnections are employed to maintain the power supply to at least some loads. The proposed EMS ensures optimal energy balance in the network. A sizing method based on discrete-event simulations has also been proposed to obtain reliable capacities of the photovoltaic array and battery. In addition, an algorithm to determine the number of hours of electric power supply that can be guaranteed to the customers at any given location has been developed. The successful performances of all the proposed algorithms have been demonstrated by simulations.

A Study of Multicast Performance in IEEE 802.11 Wireless Local Area Networks

Langattomat lähiverkot ovat yleistyneet ja monin paikoin niillä pyritään täysin korvaamaan perinteiset kaapeloidut verkot. Samalla verkoissa välitettävät palvelut monipuolistuvat. Etenkin interaktiivisten sisältöjen ja viiveriippuvaisten palvelujen välittämisessä korostuvat verkolle asettavat vaatimukset suorituskyvystä ja palveluntasosta. Radiotaajuuksilla tapahtuva tiedonsiirto on ongelmallista siirtomedian jaetun luonteen vuoksi. Käytettäessä ympärisäteileviä antenneja jokainen kantomatkan päässä oleva asema kuulee lähetyksen, vaikkei se olisi sille suunnattu. Tämä luo turvallisuusongelman, mutta lisäksi heikentää tehokkuutta, koska nykyisellä antenniteknologialla vain yksi asema kerrallaan voi lähettää häiriöttä kantoalueellaan. Täsmälähetykset yhden lähteen ja useiden kohteiden välillä luovat erillisiä siirtolinkkejä. Olisi luontevampaa luoda yksi lähetysvirta, johon useat vastaanottajat voivat kytkeytyä. Kaistan säästön vastapainona on tarve luoda ja ylläpitää näitä yhteyksiä. Käyttäjien liikkuvuuden ja siirtotien vaihtelevien ominaisuuksien vuoksi langattoman verkon rakenne ja rajat ovat epäselviä. Näihin haasteisiin on vastattava sekä protokolla- että sovellustasolla. Tässä tutkielmassa käydään ensin läpi IEEE 802.11 -standardin mukaisen langattoman verkon perusteet ja sen ominaisuuksiin liittyvät tyypilliset ongelmakohdat. Yleis- ja ryhmälähetyksiä tarkastellaan ensin perinteisessä IEEE 802.3 standardin mukaisessa langallisessa lähiverkossa ja selvitetään, miten vastaavat ominaisuudet toteutuvat IEEE 802.11 standardien mukaisissa langattomissa verkoissa. Käyttötapaustutkimuksissa keskitytään rajatussa ympäristössä tapahtuviin ryhmälähetyksiin. Erityisesti tutkitaan langattomien ryhmälähetysten käyttökelpoisuutta sekä langattoman ympäristön asettamia erityisvaatimuksia.

Helsinki hub – new traffic flows and business networks

This thesis is the Logistics Development Forum's assignment and the work dealing with the development of the Port of Helsinki as part of Helsinki hub. The Forum aims to develop logistics efficiency through public-private co-operation and development of the port is clearly dependent on both factors. Freight volumes in the Port of Helsinki are the biggest single factor in hub and, therefore, the role of the port of the entire hub development is strong. The aim is to look at how the port will develop as a result of changes in the foreign trade of Finland and the Northern European logistics trends in 25 years time period. Work includes the current state analysis and scenario work. The analyses are intended to find out, which trends are the most important in the port volume development. The change and effect of trends is examined through scenarios based on current state. Based on the work, the structure of Finnish export industry and international demand are in the key role in the port volume development. There is significant difference between demands of Finnish exporting products in different export markets and the development between the markets has different impacts on the port volumes by mass and cargo type. On the other hand, the Finnish economy is stuck in a prolonged recession and competition between ports has become a significant factor in the individual port's volume development. Ecological valuesand regulations have changed the competitive landscape and maritime transport emissions reductions has become an important competitive factor for short routes in the Baltic Sea, such as in the link between Helsinki and Tallinn.

Relay protection in active distribution networks

Increasingly growing share of distributed generation in the whole electrical power system’s generating system is currently a worldwide tendency, driven by several factors, encircling mainly difficulties in refinement of megalopolises’ distribution networks and its maintenance; widening environmental concerns adding to both energy efficiency approaches and installation of renewable sources based generation, inherently distributed; increased power quality and reliability needs; progress in IT field, making implementable harmonization of needs and interests of different-energy-type generators and consumers. At this stage, the volume, formed by system-interconnected distributed generation facilities, have reached the level of causing broad impact toward system operation under emergency and post-emergency conditions in several EU countries, thus previously implementable approach of their preliminary tripping in case of a fault, preventing generating equipment damage and disoperation of relay protection and automation, is not applicable any more. Adding to the preceding, withstand capability and transient electromechanical stability of generating technologies, interconnecting in proximity of load nodes, enhanced significantly since the moment Low Voltage Ride-Through regulations, followed by techniques, were introduced in Grid Codes. Both aspects leads to relay protection and auto-reclosing operation in presence of distributed generation generally connected after grid planning and construction phases. This paper proposes solutions to the emerging need to ensure correct operation of the equipment in question with least possible grid refinements, distinctively for every type of distributed generation technology achieved its technical maturity to date and network’s protection. New generating technologies are equivalented from the perspective of representation in calculation of initial steady-state short-circuit current used to dimension current-sensing relay protection, and widely adopted short-circuit calculation practices, as IEC 60909 and VDE 0102. The phenomenon of unintentional islanding, influencing auto-reclosing, is addressed, and protection schemes used to eliminate an sustained island are listed and characterized by reliability and implementation related factors, whereas also forming a crucial aspect of realization of the proposed protection operation relieving measures.

Benefits of a low-cost one-phase current distortion detection device in appliance supply in low-voltage residential networks

In this bachelor’s thesis are examined the benefits of current distortion detection device application in customer premises low voltage networks. The purpose of this study was to find out if there are benefits for measuring current distortion in low-voltage residential networks. Concluding into who can benefit from measuring the power quality. The research focuses on benefits based on the standardization in Europe and United States of America. In this research, were also given examples of appliances in which current distortion detection device could be used. Along with possible illustration of user interface for the device. The research was conducted as an analysis of the benefits of current distortion detection device in residential low voltage networks. The research was based on literature review. The study was divided to three sections. The first explain the reasons for benefitting from usage of the device and the second portrays the low-cost device, which could detect one-phase current distortion, in theory. The last section discuss of the benefits of usage of current distortion detection device while focusing on the beneficiaries. Based on the result of this research, there are benefits from usage to the current distortion detection device. The main benefitting party of the current distortion detection device was found to be manufactures, as they are held responsible of limiting the current distortion on behalf of consumers. Manufactures could adjust equipment to respond better to the distortion by having access to on-going current distortion in network. The other benefitting party are system operators, who would better locate distortion issues in low-voltage residential network to start prevention of long-term problems caused by current distortion early on.