A fuzzy reed-frost model for epidemic spreading

In this paper, we present a fuzzy approach to the Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection. The heterogeneities in the infected group is based on the clinical signals of the individuals (symptoms, laboratorial exams, medical findings, etc.), which are incorporated into the dynamic of the epidemic. The infectivity level is time-varying and the classification of the individuals is performed through fuzzy relations. Simulations considering a real problem with data of the viral epidemic in a children daycare are performed and the results are compared with a stochastic Reed-Frost generalization

Exact time-dependent solutions for a self-regulating gene

The exact time-dependent solution for the stochastic equations governing the behavior of a binary self-regulating gene is presented. Using the generating function technique to rephrase the master equations in terms of partial differential equations, we show that the model is totally integrable and the analytical solutions are the celebrated confluent Heun functions. Self-regulation plays a major role in the control of gene expression, and it is remarkable that such a microscopic model is completely integrable in terms of well-known complex functions.

Association between neuromuscular tests and kumite performance on the Brazilian Karate National Team

The aim of this study was to verify the relationship of strength and power with performance on an international level karate team during official kumite simulations. Fourteen male black belt karate athletes were submitted to anthropometric data collection and then performed the following tests on two different days: vertical jump test, bench press and squat maximum dynamic strength (1RM) tests. We also tested power production for both exercises at 30 and 60% 1RM and performed a kumite match simulation. Blood samples were obtained at rest and immediately after the kumite matches to measure blood lactate concentration. Karate players were separated by performance (winners vs. defeated) on the kumite matches. We found no significant differences between winners and defeated for strength, vertical jump height, anthropometric data and blood lactate concentration. Interestingly, winners were more powerful in the bench press and squat exercises at 30% 1RM. Maximum strength was correlated with absolute (30% 1RM r = 0.92; 60% 1RM r = 0.63) and relative power (30% 1RM r = 0.74; 60% 1RM r = 0.11, p > 0.05) for the bench press exercise. We concluded that international level karate players' kumite match performance are influenced by higher levels of upper and lower limbs power production.

AVERAGE CONTINUOUS CONTROL OF PIECEWISE DETERMINISTIC MARKOV PROCESSES

This paper deals with the long run average continuous control problem of piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) taking values in a general Borel space and with compact action space depending on the state variable. The control variable acts on the jump rate and transition measure of the PDMP, and the running and boundary costs are assumed to be positive but not necessarily bounded. Our first main result is to obtain an optimality equation for the long run average cost in terms of a discrete-time optimality equation related to the embedded Markov chain given by the postjump location of the PDMP. Our second main result guarantees the existence of a feedback measurable selector for the discrete-time optimality equation by establishing a connection between this equation and an integro-differential equation. Our final main result is to obtain some sufficient conditions for the existence of a solution for a discrete-time optimality inequality and an ordinary optimal feedback control for the long run average cost using the so-called vanishing discount approach. Two examples are presented illustrating the possible applications of the results developed in the paper.

A spatial approach for the epidemiology of antibiotic use and resistance in community-based studies: the emergence of urban clusters of Escherichia coli quinolone resistance in Sao Paulo, Brasil

Background: Population antimicrobial use may influence resistance emergence. Resistance is an ecological phenomenon due to potential transmissibility. We investigated spatial and temporal patterns of ciprofloxacin (CIP) population consumption related to E. coli resistance emergence and dissemination in a major Brazilian city. A total of 4,372 urinary tract infection E. coli cases, with 723 CIP resistant, were identified in 2002 from two outpatient centres. Cases were address geocoded in a digital map. Raw CIP consumption data was transformed into usage density in DDDs by CIP selling points influence zones determination. A stochastic model coupled with a Geographical Information System was applied for relating resistance and usage density and for detecting city areas of high/low resistance risk. Results: E. coli CIP resistant cluster emergence was detected and significantly related to usage density at a level of 5 to 9 CIP DDDs. There were clustered hot-spots and a significant global spatial variation in the residual resistance risk after allowing for usage density. Conclusions: There were clustered hot-spots and a significant global spatial variation in the residual resistance risk after allowing for usage density. The usage density of 5-9 CIP DDDs per 1,000 inhabitants within the same influence zone was the resistance triggering level. This level led to E. coli resistance clustering, proving that individual resistance emergence and dissemination was affected by antimicrobial population consumption.

Allosteric Control of Gating Mechanisms Revisited: The Large Conductance Ca(2+)-Activated K(+) Channel

Large-conductance Ca(2+)-activated K(+) channels (BK) play a fundamental role in modulating membrane potential in many cell types. The gating of BK channels and its modulation by Ca(2+) and voltage has been the subject of intensive research over almost three decades, yielding several of the most complicated kinetic mechanisms ever proposed. A large number of open and closed states disposed, respectively, in two planes, named tiers, characterize these mechanisms. Transitions between states in the same plane are cooperative and modulated by Ca(2+). Transitions across planes are highly concerted and voltage-dependent. Here we reexamine the validity of the two-tiered hypothesis by restricting attention to the modulation by Ca(2+). Large single channel data sets at five Ca(2+) concentrations were simultaneously analyzed from a Bayesian perspective by using hidden Markov models and Markov-chain Monte Carlo stochastic integration techniques. Our results support a dramatic reduction in model complexity, favoring a simple mechanism derived from the Monod-Wyman-Changeux allosteric model for homotetramers, able to explain the Ca(2+) modulation of the gating process. This model differs from the standard Monod-Wyman-Changeux scheme in that one distinguishes when two Ca(2+) ions are bound to adjacent or diagonal subunits of the tetramer.

Physical and dynamical characterization of (5201) Ferraz-Mello, a possible extinct Jupiter family comet

Context. The subject of asteroids in cometary orbits (ACOs) has been of growing interest lately. These objects have the orbital characteristics typical of comets, but are asteroidal in appearance, i.e., show no signs of a coma at any part of their orbits. At least a fraction of these objects are thought to be comets that have either exhausted all their volatile content or developed a refractory crust that prevents sublimation. In particular, the asteroid ( 5201) Ferraz-Mello has, since its discovery, been suspected to be an extinct Jupiter family comet due to the peculiar nature of its orbit. Aims. The aim of this work is to put constraints on the possible origin of ( 5201) Ferraz-Mello by means of spectroscopic characterization and a study of the dynamics of this asteroid. Methods. We used the SOAR Optical Imager (SOI) to obtain observations of ( 5201) Ferraz-Mello using four SDSS filters. These observations were compared to asteroids listed in the Sloan Moving objects catalog and also to photometry of cometary nuclei, Centaurs, and TNOs. The orbital evolution of ( 5201) Ferraz-Mello and of a sample of asteroids and comets that are close to that object in the a - e plane were simulated using a pure N-body code for 4 000 years forward and 4 000 years backward in time. Results. The reflectance spectrum obtained from its colors in the SDSS system is unusual, with a steep spectral gradient that is comparable to TNOs and Centaurs, but with an increase in the reflectance in the g band that is not common in those populations. A similar behavior is seen in cometary nuclei that were observed in the presence of a faint dust coma. The dynamical results confirm the very chaotic evolution found previously and its dynamical similarity to the chaotic evolution of some comets. The asteroid is situated in the very stochastic layer at the border of the 2/1 resonance, and it has a very short Lyapunov time ( 30 - 40) years. Together, the spectral characteristcs and the dynamical evolution suggest that ( 5201) Ferraz-Mello is a dormant or extinct comet.

A NEW DIAGNOSTIC OF THE RADIAL DENSITY STRUCTURE OF Be DISKS

We analyze the intrinsic polarization of two classical Be stars in the process of losing their circumstellar disks via a Be to normal B star transition originally reported by Wisniewski et al. During each of five polarimetric outbursts which interrupt these disk-loss events, we find that the ratio of the polarization across the Balmer jump (BJ+/BJ-) versus the V-band polarization traces a distinct loop structure as a function of time. Since the polarization change across the Balmer jump is a tracer of the innermost disk density whereas the V-band polarization is a tracer of the total scattering mass of the disk, we suggest that such correlated loop structures in Balmer jump-V-band polarization diagrams (BJV diagrams) provide a unique diagnostic of the radial distribution of mass within Be disks. We use the three-dimensional Monte Carlo radiation transfer code HDUST to reproduce the observed clockwise loops simply by turning ""on/off"" the mass decretion from the disk. We speculate that counterclockwise loop structures we observe in BJV diagrams might be caused by the mass decretion rate changing between subsequent ""on/off"" sequences. Applying this new diagnostic to a larger sample of Be disk systems will provide insight into the time-dependent nature of each system's stellar decretion rate.

Phylogenetic nomenclature and evolution of mannose-binding lectin (MBL2) haplotypes

Background: Polymorphisms of the mannose-binding lectin gene (MBL2) affect the concentration and functional efficiency of the protein. We recently used haplotype-specific sequencing to identify 23 MBL2 haplotypes, associated with enhanced susceptibility to several diseases. Results: In this work, we applied the same method in 288 and 470 chromosomes from Gabonese and European adults, respectively, and found three new haplotypes in the last group. We propose a phylogenetic nomenclature to standardize MBL2 studies and found two major phylogenetic branches due to six strongly linked polymorphisms associated with high MBL production. They presented high Fst values and were imbedded in regions with high nucleotide diversity and significant Tajima's D values. Compared to others using small sample sizes and unphased genotypic data, we found differences in haplotyping, frequency estimation, Fu and Li's D* and Fst results. Conclusion: Using extensive testing for selective neutrality, we confirmed that stochastic evolutionary factors have had a major role in shaping this polymorphic gene worldwide.

Phase-disorder-induced double resonance of neuronal activity

It is well known that resonance can be induced by external noise or diversity. Here we show that resonance can be induced even by a phase disorder in coupled excitable neurons with subthreshold activity. In contrast to the case of identical phase, we find that phase disorder plays an active role in enhancing neuronal activity. We also uncover that the presence of phase disorder can induce a double resonance phenomenon: phase disorder and coupling strength both can enhance neuronal firing activity. A physical theory is formulated to help understand the mechanism behind this double resonance phenomenon.

Particle competition for complex network community detection

In many real situations, randomness is considered to be uncertainty or even confusion which impedes human beings from making a correct decision. Here we study the combined role of randomness and determinism in particle dynamics for complex network community detection. In the proposed model, particles walk in the network and compete with each other in such a way that each of them tries to possess as many nodes as possible. Moreover, we introduce a rule to adjust the level of randomness of particle walking in the network, and we have found that a portion of randomness can largely improve the community detection rate. Computer simulations show that the model has good community detection performance and at the same time presents low computational complexity. (C) 2008 American Institute of Physics.

CHARACTERIZATION OF EXPONENTIAL DIVERGENCE OF THE KALMAN FILTER FOR TIME-VARYING SYSTEMS

This paper studies semistability of the recursive Kalman filter in the context of linear time-varying (LTV), possibly nondetectable systems with incorrect noise information. Semistability is a key property, as it ensures that the actual estimation error does not diverge exponentially. We explore structural properties of the filter to obtain a necessary and sufficient condition for the filter to be semistable. The condition does not involve limiting gains nor the solution of Riccati equations, as they can be difficult to obtain numerically and may not exist. We also compare semistability with the notions of stability and stability w.r.t. the initial error covariance, and we show that semistability in a sense makes no distinction between persistent and nonpersistent incorrect noise models, as opposed to stability. In the linear time invariant scenario we obtain algebraic, easy to test conditions for semistability and stability, which complement results available in the context of detectable systems. Illustrative examples are included.

Escape patterns of chaotic magnetic field lines in a tokamak with reversed magnetic shear and an ergodic limiter

The existence of a reversed magnetic shear in tokamaks improves the plasma confinement through the formation of internal transport barriers that reduce radial particle and heat transport. However, the transport poloidal profile is much influenced by the presence of chaotic magnetic field lines at the plasma edge caused by external perturbations. Contrary to many expectations, it has been observed that such a chaotic region does not uniformize heat and particle deposition on the inner tokamak wall. The deposition is characterized instead by structured patterns called magnetic footprints, here investigated for a nonmonotonic analytical plasma equilibrium perturbed by an ergodic limiter. The magnetic footprints appear due to the underlying mathematical skeleton of chaotic magnetic field lines determined by the manifold tangles. For the investigated edge safety factor ranges, these effects on the wall are associated with the field line stickiness and escape channels due to internal island chains near the flux surfaces. Comparisons between magnetic footprints and escape basins from different equilibrium and ergodic limiter characteristic parameters show that highly concentrated magnetic footprints can be avoided by properly choosing these parameters. (c) 2008 American Institute of Physics.

Critical behavior of the susceptible-infected-recovered model on a square lattice

By means of numerical simulations and epidemic analysis, the transition point of the stochastic asynchronous susceptible-infected-recovered model on a square lattice is found to be c(0)=0.176 500 5(10), where c is the probability a chosen infected site spontaneously recovers rather than tries to infect one neighbor. This point corresponds to an infection/recovery rate of lambda(c)=(1-c(0))/c(0)=4.665 71(3) and a net transmissibility of (1-c(0))/(1+3c(0))=0.538 410(2), which falls between the rigorous bounds of the site and bond thresholds. The critical behavior of the model is consistent with the two-dimensional percolation universality class, but local growth probabilities differ from those of dynamic percolation cluster growth, as is demonstrated explicitly.

Entropy production in irreversible systems described by a Fokker-Planck equation

We analyze the irreversibility and the entropy production in nonequilibrium interacting particle systems described by a Fokker-Planck equation by the use of a suitable master equation representation. The irreversible character is provided either by nonconservative forces or by the contact with heat baths at distinct temperatures. The expression for the entropy production is deduced from a general definition, which is related to the probability of a trajectory in phase space and its time reversal, that makes no reference a priori to the dissipated power. Our formalism is applied to calculate the heat conductance in a simple system consisting of two Brownian particles each one in contact to a heat reservoir. We show also the connection between the definition of entropy production rate and the Jarzynski equality.