A new method for the characterisation and verification of local spatial predictability for convective scale ensembles

The use of kilometre-scale ensembles in operational forecasting provides new challenges for forecast interpretation and evaluation to account for uncertainty on the convective scale. A new neighbourhood based method is presented for evaluating and characterising the local predictability variations from convective scale ensembles. Spatial scales over which ensemble forecasts agree (agreement scales, S^A) are calculated at each grid point ij, providing a map of the spatial agreement between forecasts. By comparing the average agreement scale obtained from ensemble member pairs (S^A(mm)_ij), with that between members and radar observations (S^A(mo)_ij), this approach allows the location-dependent spatial spread-skill relationship of the ensemble to be assessed. The properties of the agreement scales are demonstrated using an idealised experiment. To demonstrate the methods in an operational context the S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij are calculated for six convective cases run with the Met Office UK Ensemble Prediction System. The S^A(mm)_ij highlight predictability differences between cases, which can be linked to physical processes. Maps of S^A(mm)_ij are found to summarise the spatial predictability in a compact and physically meaningful manner that is useful for forecasting and for model interpretation. Comparison of S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij demonstrates the case-by-case and temporal variability of the spatial spread-skill, which can again be linked to physical processes.

Spatial patterns and environmental constraints on ecosystem services at a catchment scale

Improved understanding and prediction of the fundamental environmental controls on ecosystem service supply across the landscape will help to inform decisions made by policy makers and land-water managers. To evaluate this issue for a local catchment case study, we explored metrics and spatial patterns of service supply for water quality regulation, agriculture production, carbon storage, and biodiversity for the Macronutrient Conwy catchment. Methods included using ecosystem models such as LUCI and JULES, integration of national scale field survey datasets, earth observation products and plant trait databases, to produce finely resolved maps of species richness and primary production. Analyses were done with both 1x1 km gridded and subcatchment data. A common single gradient characterised catchment scale ecosystem services supply with agricultural production and carbon storage at opposing ends of the gradient as reported for a national-scale assessment. Species diversity was positively related to production due to the below national average productivity levels in the Conwy combined with the unimodal relationship between biodiversity and productivity at the national scale. In contrast to the national scale assessment, a strong reduction in water quality as production increased was observed in these low productive systems. Various soil variables were tested for their predictive power of ecosystem service supply. Soil carbon, nitrogen, their ratio and soil pH all had double the power of rainfall and altitude, each explaining around 45% of variation but soil pH is proposed as a potential metric for ecosystem service supply potential as it is a simple and practical metric which can be carried out in the field with crowd-sourcing technologies now available. The study emphasises the importance of considering multiple ecosystem services together due to the complexity of covariation at local and national scales, and the benefits of exploiting a wide range of metrics for each service to enhance data robustness.

Spatial expansion and population structure of the neotropical malaria vector, Anopheles darlingi (Diptera: Culicidae)

Extensive population structuring is known to occur in Anopheles darlingi, the primary malaria vector of the Neotropics. We analysed the phylogeographic structure of the species using the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I marker. Diversity is divided into six main population groups in South America: Colombia, central Amazonia, southern Brazil, south-eastern Brazil, and two groups in north-east Brazil. The ancestral distribution of the taxon is hypothesized to be central Amazonia, and there is evidence of expansion from this region during the late Pleistocene. The expansion was not a homogeneous front, however, with at least four subgroups being formed due to geographic barriers. As the species spread, populations became isolated from each other by the Amazon River and the coastal mountain ranges of south-eastern Brazil and the Andes. Analyses incorporating distances around these barriers suggest that the entire South American range of An. darlingi is at mutation-dispersal-drift equilibrium. Because the species is distributed throughout such a broad area, the limited dispersal across some landscape types promotes differentiation between otherwise proximate populations. Moreover, samples from the An. darlingi holotype location in Rio de Janeiro State are substantially derived from all other populations, implying that there may be additional genetic differences of epidemiological relevance. The results obtained contribute to our understanding of gene flow in this species and allow the formulation of human mosquito health protocols in light of the potential population differences in vector capacity or tolerance to control strategies. (C) 2009 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2009, 97, 854-866.

Nitrogen Metabolism in leaves of a tank epiphytic bromeliad: Characterization of a spatial and functional division

The leaf is considered the most important vegetative organ of tank epiphytic bromeliads due to its ability to absorb and assimilate nutrients. However, little is known about the physiological characteristics of nutrient uptake and assimilation. In order to better understand the mechanisms utilized by some tank epiphytic bromeliads to optimize the nitrogen acquisition and assimilation, a study was proposed to verify the existence of a differential capacity to assimilate nitrogen in different leaf portions. The experiments were conducted using young plants of Vriesea gigantea. A nutrient solution containing NO(3)(-)/NH(4)(+) or urea as the sole nitrogen source was supplied to the tank of these plants and the activities of urease, nitrate reductase (NR), glutamine synthetase (GS) and glutamate dehydrogenase (NADH-GDH) were quantified in apical and basal leaf portions after 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 24 and 48 h. The endogenous ammonium and urea contents were also analyzed. Independent of the nitrogen sources utilized, NR and urease activities were higher in the basal portions of leaves in all the period analyzed. On the contrary. GS and GDH activities were higher in apical part. It was also observed that the endogenous ammonium and urea had the highest contents detected in the basal region. These results suggest that the basal portion was preferentially involved in nitrate reduction and urea hydrolysis, while the apical region could be the main area responsible for ammonium assimilation through the action of GS and GDH activities. Moreover, it was possible to infer that ammonium may be transported from the base, to the apex of the leaves. In conclusion, it was suggested that a spatial and functional division in nitrogen absorption and NH(4)(+) assimilation between basal and apical leaf areas exists, ensuring that the majority of nitrogen available inside the tank is quickly used by bromeliad`s leaves. (C) 2011 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Bathymetric distribution of the shrimp Rimapenaeus constrictus (Stimpson, 1874) (Decapoda, Penaeidae) in two locations off the southeastern Brazilian coast

The distribution of benthic organisms is directly or indirectly associated with the physical and chemical properties of the water and sediment. This study analysed the spatial and temporal distribution of Rimapenaeus constrictus in unconsolidated sublittoral sediments of two areas off the northern coast of the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. We also analysed the association of environmental factors with the occurrence of this species. Shrimp were collected monthly from July 2001 to June 2003, with a fishing boat equipped with two double-rig nets, in the regions of Ubatuba (UBA) and Caraguatatuba (CA). The collections were made during the day, along five transects with mean depths of 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 m. We obtained a total of 5478 individuals, 3403 (UBA = 2025 and CA = 1378) during the first year, and 2075 (UBA = 875 and CA = 1200) during the second year. Significant differences in abundance were observed in relation to depth, season of the year, and also in the interaction between region and depth. Higher abundances occurred in fall and winter, independently of the sampling year. The largest numbers of shrimp were caught on the 20-m transect in UBA and the 25-m transect in CA. It is concluded that the distribution pattern of this species is closely related to environmental factors, and the temperature of the bottom water and the sediment texture were the most significant variables affecting the distribution.

The impact of fragmentation and density regulation on forest succession in the Atlantic rain forest

The Atlantic Rain Forest, an important biodiversity hot spot, has faced severe habitat loss since the last century which has resulted in a highly fragmented landscape with a large number of small forest patches (<100 ha). For conservation planning it is essential to understand how current and future forest regeneration depends on ecological processes, fragment size and the connection to the regional seed pool. We have investigated the following questions by applying the forest growth simulation model FORMIND to the situation of the Atlantic Forest in the state of Sao Paulo, SE Brazil: (1) which set of parameters describing the local regeneration and level of density regulation can reproduce the biomass distribution and stem density of an old growth forest in a reserve? (2) Which additional processes apart from those describing the dynamics of an old growth forest, drive forest succession of small isolated fragments? (3) Which role does external seed input play during succession? Therefore, more than 300 tree species have been classified into nine plant functional types (PFTs), which are characterized by maximum potential height and shade tolerance. We differentiate between two seed dispersal modes: (i) local dispersal, i.e. all seedlings originated from fertile trees within the simulated area and (ii) external seed rain. Local seed dispersal has been parameterized following the pattern oriented approach, using biomass estimates of old growth forest. We have found that moderate density regulation is essential to achieve coexistence for a broad range of regeneration parameters. Considering the expected uncertainty and variability in the regeneration processes it is important that the forest dynamics are robust to variations in the regeneration parameters. Furthermore, edge effects such as increased mortality at the border and external seed rain have been necessary to reproduce the patterns for small isolated fragments. Overall, simulated biomass is much lower in the fragments compared to the continuous forest, whereas shade tolerant species are affected most strongly by fragmentation. Our simulations can supplement empirical studies by extrapolating local knowledge on edge effects of fragments to larger temporal and spatial scales. In particular our results show the importance of external seed rain and therefore highlight the importance of structural connectivity between regenerating fragments and mature forest stands. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Importance of estimating matrix quality for modeling species distribution in complex tropical landscapes: a test with Atlantic forest small mammals

Information to guide decision making is especially urgent in human dominated landscapes in the tropics, where urban and agricultural frontiers are still expanding in an unplanned manner. Nevertheless, most studies that have investigated the influence of landscape structure on species distribution have not considered the heterogeneity of altered habitats of the matrix, which is usually high in human dominated landscapes. Using the distribution of small mammals in forest remnants and in the four main altered habitats in an Atlantic forest landscape, we investigated 1) how explanatory power of models describing species distribution in forest remnants varies between landscape structure variables that do or do not incorporate matrix quality and 2) the importance of spatial scale for analyzing the influence of landscape structure. We used standardized sampling in remnants and altered habitats to generate two indices of habitat quality, corresponding to the abundance and to the occurrence of small mammals. For each remnant, we calculated habitat quantity and connectivity in different spatial scales, considering or not the quality of surrounding habitats. The incorporation of matrix quality increased model explanatory power across all spatial scales for half the species that occurred in the matrix, but only when taking into account the distance between habitat patches (connectivity). These connectivity models were also less affected by spatial scale than habitat quantity models. The few consistent responses to the variation in spatial scales indicate that despite their small size, small mammals perceive landscape features at large spatial scales. Matrix quality index corresponding to species occurrence presented a better or similar performance compared to that of species abundance. Results indicate the importance of the matrix for the dynamics of fragmented landscapes and suggest that relatively simple indices can improve our understanding of species distribution, and could be applied in modeling, monitoring and managing complex tropical landscapes.

Comparative phylogeography of Trypanosoma cruzi TCIIc: New hosts, association with terrestrial ecotopes, and spatial clustering

We characterized 28 new isolates of Trypanosoma cruzi IIc (TCIIc) of mammals and triatomines from Northern to Southern Brazil, confirming the widespread distribution of this lineage. Phylogenetic analyses using cytochrome b and SSU rDNA sequences clearly separated TCIIc from TCIIa according to terrestrial and arboreal ecotopes of their preferential mammalian hosts and vectors. TCIIc was more closely related to TCIId/e, followed by TCIIa, and separated by large distances from TCIIb and TCI. Despite being indistinguishable by traditional genotyping and generally being assigned to Z3, we provide evidence that TCIIa from South America and TCIIa from North America correspond to independent lineages that circulate in distinct hosts and ecological niches. Armadillos, terrestrial didelphids and rodents, and domestic dogs were found infected by TCIIc in Brazil. We believe that, in Brazil, this is the first description of TCIIc from rodents and domestic dogs. Terrestrial triatomines of genera Panstrongylus and Triatoma were confirmed as vectors of TCIIc. Together, habitat, mammalian host and vector association corroborated the link between TCIIc and terrestrial transmission cycles/ecological niches. Analysis of ITS1 rDNA sequences disclosed clusters of TCIIc isolates in accordance with their geographic origin, independent of their host species. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal patterns of occurrence of Lutzomyia sand fly species in an endemic area for cutaneous leishmaniasis in the Atlantic Forest region of northeast Brazil

Sand fly populations of different ecological niches in the Amaraji endemic American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (ACL) focus of the Pernambuco Atlantic Forest region of northeastern Brazil were monitored spatiotemporally. Lutzomyia whitmani was dominant in all niches but occurred in smaller numbers in forested locations. L. whitmani was significantly less seasonal than the other species, being present throughout the year while other species were more abundant between February and April. These results suggest that L. whitmani may potentially be the principal vector of ACL in the region, even though the sand fly fauna was diverse: 88% were L.whitmani and 12% belonged to 11 other species. Two other species, L. complexa (1.3%) and L. migonei (0.8%), considered to be ACL vectors in other regions, were also present. This detailed picture of the sand fly population`s abundance and spatiotemporal distribution provides a basis for future modeling studies of forecasting sand fly activity patterns and ACL occurence.

Comparing machine learning classifiers in potential distribution modelling

Species` potential distribution modelling consists of building a representation of the fundamental ecological requirements of a species from biotic and abiotic conditions where the species is known to occur. Such models can be valuable tools to understand the biogeography of species and to support the prediction of its presence/absence considering a particular environment scenario. This paper investigates the use of different supervised machine learning techniques to model the potential distribution of 35 plant species from Latin America. Each technique was able to extract a different representation of the relations between the environmental conditions and the distribution profile of the species. The experimental results highlight the good performance of random trees classifiers, indicating this particular technique as a promising candidate for modelling species` potential distribution. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Non-homogeneous liver distribution of photosensitizer and its consequence for photodynamic therapy outcome

Background: Photodynamic therapy is mainly used for treatment of malignant lesions, and is based on selective location of a photosensitizer in the tumor tissue, followed by light at wavelengths matching the photosensitizer absorption spectrum. In molecular oxygen presence, reactive oxygen species are generated, inducing cells to die. One of the limitations of photodynamic therapy is the variability of photosensitizer concentration observed in systemically photosensitized tissues, mainly due to differences of the tissue architecture, cell lines, and pharmacokinetics. This study aim was to demonstrate the spatial distribution of a hematoporphyrin derivative, Photogem(R), in the healthy liver tissue of Wistar rats via fluorescence spectroscopy, and to understand its implications on photodynamic response. Methods: Fifteen male Wistar rats were intravenously photosensitized with 1.5 mg/kg body weight of Photogem(R). Laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy at 532nm-excitation was performed on ex vivo liver slices. The influence of photosensitizer surface distribution detected by fluorescence and the induced depth of necrosis were investigated in five animals. Results: Photosensitizer distribution on rat liver showed to be greatly non-homogeneous. This may affect photodynamic therapy response as shown in the results of depth of necrosis. Conclusions: As a consequence of these results, this study suggests that photosensitizer surface spatial distribution should be taken into account in photodynamic therapy dosimetry, as this will help to better predict clinical results. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The latitude dependent irradiation distribution in Europe and its implication for the design of stationary concentrators

When a stationary solar concentrator is designed, the spatial distribution of the available irradiation is of vital interest. An irradiation distribution based only on solar geometry will look similar at different sites. The only difference is that the distribution of the incident irradiation is shifted to lower solar altitudes when latitude is increased. However, real irradiation distribution will show strong asymmetry at high latitude sites, since the winter irradiation is reduced by absorption and scattering in the atmosphere, and by seasonal changes in the climate. The reduced winter irradiation at high latitudes implies that the available annual radiation is concentrated to a narrower angular interval. This means that the degree of concentration that is possible increases with latitude.In the paper examples of irradiation distribution from different sites in Europe from latitude 38°N to 65°N are shown. The origin of the reduced winter irradiation with increased latitude is discussed, and numerical examples on the performance of different types of stationary concentrators for different latitudes are given.

A Spatial-Temporal Downscaling Approach To Construction Of Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Relations In The Context Of Climate Change

This paper proposes a spatial-temporal downscaling approach to construction of the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relations at a local site in the context of climate change and variability. More specifically, the proposed approach is based on a combination of a spatial downscaling method to link large-scale climate variables given by General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations with daily extreme precipitations at a site and a temporal downscaling procedure to describe the relationships between daily and sub-daily extreme precipitations based on the scaling General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The feasibility and accuracy of the suggested method were assessed using rainfall data available at eight stations in Quebec (Canada) for the 1961-2000 period and climate simulations under four different climate change scenarios provided by the Canadian (CGCM3) and UK (HadCM3) GCM models. Results of this application have indicated that it is feasible to link sub-daily extreme rainfalls at a local site with large-scale GCM-based daily climate predictors for the construction of the IDF relations for present (1961-1990) and future (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) periods at a given site under different climate change scenarios. In addition, it was found that annual maximum rainfalls downscaled from the HadCM3 displayed a smaller change in the future, while those values estimated from the CGCM3 indicated a large increasing trend for future periods. This result has demonstrated the presence of high uncertainty in climate simulations provided by different GCMs. In summary, the proposed spatial-temporal downscaling method provided an essential tool for the estimation of extreme rainfalls that are required for various climate-related impact assessment studies for a given region.

Brazilian regional development distribution, evidences for socio-economic policy

As to many Latin american countries, the impacts of the recent economic globalization on the Brazilian economy have revealed a diversified tendency in spatial development when regional economic indicators are observed. This is due to the specificities or each region, as regard their sector structure, the availability of human resources and the degree of technological innovation undertaken by local enterprises. From a situation of regional inequalities observed in lhe socio-economic levels of development at the beginning of the eighties the dynamics of the Brazilian regional evolution has presented different speeds and intensities in the several spaees. This paper aims to evaluate the dynamics of Brazilian regional development during the 1985-95 period and the impacts over the working population and regional disparities in order to offer some elements to assist social and economic policy. For this purpose Dispersion Quotients and Dispersion lntensity Coefficients were calculated based on two variables, the Regional Gross Domestic Product anel the Working Population. The results of the analysis confirm the existence of considerable regional disparities and it was observed that thc sector and regional redistribution of the GDP indicate that in a general way, no remarkable changes occurred in the regional development in the period. The results show that although the economic policies did stimulate a global convergence process of the per capita product among regions, those policies did not attenuate economic dynamism concentration to the desired extent.

Essays on Spatial Econometrics

Esta dissertação concentra-se nos processos estocásticos espaciais definidos em um reticulado, os chamados modelos do tipo Cliff & Ord. Minha contribuição nesta tese consiste em utilizar aproximações de Edgeworth e saddlepoint para investigar as propriedades em amostras finitas do teste para detectar a presença de dependência espacial em modelos SAR (autoregressivo espacial), e propor uma nova classe de modelos econométricos espaciais na qual os parâmetros que afetam a estrutura da média são distintos dos parâmetros presentes na estrutura da variância do processo. Isto permite uma interpretação mais clara dos parâmetros do modelo, além de generalizar uma proposta de taxonomia feita por Anselin (2003). Eu proponho um estimador para os parâmetros do modelo e derivo a distribuição assintótica do estimador. O modelo sugerido na dissertação fornece uma interpretação interessante ao modelo SARAR, bastante comum na literatura. A investigação das propriedades em amostras finitas dos testes expande com relação a literatura permitindo que a matriz de vizinhança do processo espacial seja uma função não-linear do parâmetro de dependência espacial. A utilização de aproximações ao invés de simulações (mais comum na literatura), permite uma maneira fácil de comparar as propriedades dos testes com diferentes matrizes de vizinhança e corrigir o tamanho ao comparar a potência dos testes. Eu obtenho teste invariante ótimo que é também localmente uniformemente mais potente (LUMPI). Construo o envelope de potência para o teste LUMPI e mostro que ele é virtualmente UMP, pois a potência do teste está muito próxima ao envelope (considerando as estruturas espaciais definidas na dissertação). Eu sugiro um procedimento prático para construir um teste que tem boa potência em uma gama de situações onde talvez o teste LUMPI não tenha boas propriedades. Eu concluo que a potência do teste aumenta com o tamanho da amostra e com o parâmetro de dependência espacial (o que está de acordo com a literatura). Entretanto, disputo a visão consensual que a potência do teste diminui a medida que a matriz de vizinhança fica mais densa. Isto reflete um erro de medida comum na literatura, pois a distância estatística entre a hipótese nula e a alternativa varia muito com a estrutura da matriz. Fazendo a correção, concluo que a potência do teste aumenta com a distância da alternativa à nula, como esperado.