Reelection incentives and political budget cycle: evidence from Brazil

This article tests the presence of political budget cycle (PBC) in municipal elections in Brazil and checks whether mayors who adopt such policy have greater probability of reelection. Based on fiscal and electoral data of 5,406 Brazilian municipalities and applying the difference-in-differences econometric method as well as logistic regressions, the results provide some evidence of PBC in Brazil, although its magnitude and consistency varies depending on the years used as electoral and non-electoral years. On average, reelectable mayors spend close to 3% more in election years than nonreelectables. Moreover, reelectables who do run for reelection present a variation in spending which is close to 5% superior to that of non-reelectables and non-runners. Additionally, the results suggest that mayors who increase public spending during electoral periods have greater chances of being reelected, as long as such spending is done within deficit limits acceptable by voters.

The East Atlantic Bluefin Tuna Fisheries: Stock Collapse or Recovery?

A discrete time, multi-gear, and age structured bio-economic model is developed for the East Atlantic bluefin tuna fisheries, a paradigmatic example of the difficulties faced in managing highly migratory fish stocks. The model is used to analyse alternative management strategies for the Regional Fisheries Management Organisation (RFMO) managing this fishery, and to investigate some of the policy implications. For the various scenarios, the optimal stock level varies between 500–800,000 tonnes, which compares with a stock level of 150,000 tonnes in 1995. In other words, there is a very strong case for rebuilding the stock. Moreover, the sustainability of the stock is threatened unless a recovery programme is implemented; indeed, the alternative may be stock collapse. Second, to rebuild the stock, Draconian measures are called for: either outright moratoria over fairly lengthy periods, or possibly a more gradual approach to steady state given by a Total Allowable Catch (TAC) at a low level for an extended period of time. Third, the cost of inefficient gear structure is very high indeed.

Dois tempos, dois espaços: a educação retratada no plano dos centenários (1940/50) e no projecto DEEB (1960/70)

RESUMO: Esta investigação é fundamentalmente um trabalho baseado numa análise documental e arquitectónica de duas escolas primárias construídas em duas épocas diferentes, mas ambas integradas num mesmo período político. Saber se o Projecto do Plano dos Centenários e o Projecto DEEB se adequaram às realidades educativas, no seu percurso temporal, foi o ponto de partida para uma pesquisa geral sobre a situação económica, política e social do país, desde a década de 1940 até finais da década de 1960, possibilitando a caracterização e comparação daqueles Projectos na sua interligação com as concepções educativas e a construção escolar. Fez-se a consulta das obras e dos projectos da época em estudo com o objectivo de analisar e interpretar o processo de criação, mas também de situar historicamente os factos arquitectónicos na sua intersecção com os educativos, com vista à concretização de uma pesquisa no tempo, de dois espaços, ou seja, desde um Projecto-Tipo de uma escola primária, em Cascais, do Plano dos Centenários até ao Projecto-Piloto da escola primária de Mem Martins com base no Projecto DEEB. Por outro lado, as contribuições a nível nacional e internacional trouxeram elementos de mudança e constituíram-se como referências básicas na transformação geral da arquitectura e da pedagogia portuguesa. ABSTRACT: This investigation is mainly a piece based in an architectonic and documental analysis of two elementary schools, both built in different periods, but belonging to the same political regime. Knowing if the Plano dos Centenários (Centenary’s Project) and the Projecto DEEB (DEEB Project) fit the educative realities, in terms of time, was the starting point for a general research about the economical, political, and social situation of the Country from the beginning of the 40s till the end of the 60s, thus allowing to describe and compare those projects in terms of interconnection with the educative ideas and the school building. With the purpose of not only analyzing and explaining how it started, but also to historically locate the architectonic events in their intersection with the educative ones, the building sites and the projects of the period being studied were examined, in order to timeresearch both spaces, i.e. since a Type-Project of and elementary school, in Cascais, from the Plano dos Centenários (Centenary’s Project) till the Test-School of the Mem Martins’ elementary school, based in the Projecto DEEB (DEEB Project). On the other hand, both National and International contributions have introduced changing elements, which became essential references in the general transformation of the Portuguese architecture and Pedagogy.

The Sticky Information Macro Model: Beyond Perfect Foresight

Sticky information monetary models have been used in the macroeconomic literature to explain some of the observed features regarding inflation dynamics. In this paper, we explore the consequences of relaxing the rational expectations assumption usually taken in this type of model; in particular, by considering expectations formed through adaptive learning, it is possible to arrive to results other than the trivial convergence to a fixed point long-term equilibrium. The results involve the possibility of endogenous cyclical motion (periodic and a-periodic), which emerges essentially in scenarios of hyperinflation. In low inflation settings, the introduction of learning implies a less severe impact of monetary shocks that, nevertheless, tend to last for additional time periods relative to the pure perfect foresight setup.

A inspecção da educação na República Democrática de São Tomé e Príncipe: concepções, dinâmicas e estruturas organizacionais

Dissertação apresentada à Escola Superior de Educação de Lisboa para Obtenção de Grau de Mestre em Ciências da Educação - Especialização em Supervisão da Educação

Physiological age in Lutzomyia youngi (Diptera: Psychodidae) populations from an endemic area for cutaneous leishmaniasis, Venezuela

Batches of sylvatic females of Lutzomyia youngi (Phlebotominae) captured in a Shannon trap on twelve occasions over one year in a locality where subcutaneous leishmaniasis is endemic, near the city of Trujillo, Venezuela, were used to study: 1) the percentages of parous females according to previously established criteria and 2) the average number of eggs laid spontaneously by isolated females during 7 days after feeding on hamsters. The data on the batches of females captured on nights previous to the rainy period (prepluvial) were compared with those on females captured after the rains (postpluvial) . Significant differences were detected by variation analysis for two variables and different number of N, as also were consistent groupings by Duncan's Test for pre-and postpluvial lots of females. The females captured on nights prior to the rainy periods (January-March and August-September) presented higher rates of nulliparity (86-72%) and contained or laid a greater number of eggs (71-67) than those captured after the rains (March-June and November-December) which presented lower rates of nulliparity (60-24%) and a smaller number of eggs (50-30). The rainfall peaks occurred in April and September-October, respectively. It is considered that these differences can be used by epidemiological studies as a means of estimating the physiological age of female populations of L. youngy.

Duration of larval and pupal development stages of Aedes albopictus in natural and artificial containers

Aedes albopictus were reared in different containers: a tree hole, a bamboo stump and an auto tire. The total times from egg hatching to adult emergence were of 19.6,27.3 and 37.5 days, respectively, according to the container. The first, second and third-instar larvae presented growth periods with highly similar durations. The fourth-instar larvae was longer than the others stages. The pupation time was longer than the fourth-instar larvae growth period. The temperature of the breeding sites studied, which was of 18° C to 22° C on average, was also taken into consideration. The mortality of the immature stages was analysed and compared as between the experimental groups; it was lower in the natural containers than in the discarded tire. The average wing length of adult females emerging from tree hole was significantly larger (p < 0.05) than that of those emerging from the tire.

Mortality from asthma in the state of S. Paulo, Brazil (1970-1992)

Mortality from asthma has shown important variations over time in several countries. In Brazil, a mortality study performed in the 60s, covering the cities of S.Paulo and Ribeirão Preto, and other ten cities showed that S.Paulo presented the lowest death rate from asthma among of them all. It was decided to study the time trends of deaths from asthma and from the whole set of respiratory diseases from 1970 to 1992, in the population aged 15-34 yrs. old in the State of S.Paulo, as well as to compare them with those of other countries. Asthma mortality rates during the 23 years of observation since 1975, showed an oscillatory declining pattern with a peak of deaths in the initial years. The linearization of the curve allows the calculation of Pearson's correlation coefficient that was significantly negative, suggesting a decline in the mortality over this period, mainly in the 5-9 yrs. old and 30-34 yrs. old strata. The segmentation of data between the period of ICD-9, 1970 to 1978, and of ICD-9, 1979 and subsequent years, shows that there is stability within each period, in all age-groups, except for that of 5-9 yr. olds between 1970-1978. Comparing the rates of the population aged 15-34 yrs. old for the State of S. Paulo, Brazil, with trends observed in 14 other countries, an intermediate pattern for the first triennial period (1970-1972) as well as for the subsequent triennial periods, emerges. A prevalence study of asthma, a follow up program meant for using emergency rooms and a surveillance of deaths due to all respiratory diseases and specifically to asthma are strongly recommended.