Short-term Load Forecasting Based on Load Profiling

Load forecasting has gradually becoming a major field of research in electricity industry. Therefore, Load forecasting is extremely important for the electric sector under deregulated environment as it provides a useful support to the power system management. Accurate power load forecasting models are required to the operation and planning of a utility company, and they have received increasing attention from researches of this field study. Many mathematical methods have been developed for load forecasting. This work aims to develop and implement a load forecasting method for short-term load forecasting (STLF), based on Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and an artificial neural network (ANN). One of the main contributions of this paper is the application of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing approach to the forecasting problem and, as an evaluation of the past forecasting work, data mining techniques are also applied to short-term Load forecasting. Both ANN and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing approaches are compared and evaluated.

Stochastic Short-term Incentive-based Demand Response Scheduling of Load-serving Entities

In competitive electricity markets it is necessary for a profit-seeking load-serving entity (LSE) to optimally adjust the financial incentives offering the end users that buy electricity at regulated rates to reduce the consumption during high market prices. The LSE in this model manages the demand response (DR) by offering financial incentives to retail customers, in order to maximize its expected profit and reduce the risk of market power experience. The stochastic formulation is implemented into a test system where a number of loads are supplied through LSEs.

Multiagent System Architecture for Short-term Operation of Integrated Microgrids

The forthcoming smart grids are comprised of integrated microgrids operating in grid-connected and isolated mode with local generation, storage and demand response (DR) programs. The proposed model is based on three successive complementary steps for power transaction in the market environment. The first step is characterized as a microgrid’s internal market; the second concerns negotiations between distinct interconnected microgrids; and finally, the third refers to the actual electricity market. The proposed approach is modeled and tested using a MAS framework directed to the study of the smart grids environment, including the simulation of electricity markets. This is achieved through the integration of the proposed approach with the MASGriP (Multi-Agent Smart Grid Platform) system.

Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting using Support Vector Machines

Wind speed forecasting has been becoming an important field of research to support the electricity industry mainly due to the increasing use of distributed energy sources, largely based on renewable sources. This type of electricity generation is highly dependent on the weather conditions variability, particularly the variability of the wind speed. Therefore, accurate wind power forecasting models are required to the operation and planning of wind plants and power systems. A Support Vector Machines (SVM) model for short-term wind speed is proposed and its performance is evaluated and compared with several artificial neural network (ANN) based approaches. A case study based on a real database regarding 3 years for predicting wind speed at 5 minutes intervals is presented.

Estudo do óxido de cálcio como catalisador para a transesterificação de óleos alimentares usados

O instável mas tendencialmente crescente preço dos combustíveis associado a preocupações ambientais cada vez mais enraizadas nas sociedades, têm vindo a despoletar uma maior atenção à procura de combustíveis alternativos. Por outro lado, várias projecções indicam um aumento muito acentuado do consumo energético global no curto prazo, fruto do aumento da população e do nível de industrialização das sociedades. Neste contexto, o biodiesel (ésteres de ácidos gordos) obtido através da transesterificação de triglicerídeos de origem vegetal ou animal, surge como a alternativa “verde” mais viável para utilização em equipamentos de combustão. A reacção de transesterificação é catalisada, por norma com recurso a catalisadores homogéneos alcalinos (NaOH ou KOH). Este tipo de processo, o único actualmente com expressão a nível industrial, apresenta algumas desvantagens que, para além de aumentarem o custo do produto final, contribuem para reduzir a benignidade do mesmo: a impossibilidade de reutilização do catalisador, o aumento do número e complexidade das etapas de separação e a produção de efluentes resultantes das referidas etapas. Com o intuito de minimizar ou eliminar estes problemas, vários catalisadores heterogéneos têm vindo a ser estudados para esta reacção. Apesar de muitos apresentarem resultados promissores, a grande maioria não tem viabilidade para aplicação industrial seja devido ao seu próprio custo, seja devido aos pré-tratamentos necessários à sua utilização. Entre estes catalisadores, o óxido de cálcio é talvez o que apresenta resultados mais promissores. O crescente número de estudos envolvendo este catalisador em detrimento de outros, é por si mesmo prova do potencial do CaO. A realização deste trabalho pretendia atingir os seguintes objectivos principais: • Avaliar a elegibilidade do óxido de cálcio enquanto catalisador da reacção de transesterificação de óleos alimentares usados com metanol; • Avaliar qual a sua influência nas características dos produtos finais; • Avaliar as diferenças de performance entre o óxido de cálcio activado em atmosfera inerte (N2) e em ar, enquanto catalisadores da reacção de transesterificação de óleos alimentares usados com metanol; • Optimizar as condições da reacção com recurso às ferramentas matemáticas disponibilizadas pelo planeamento factorial, através da variação de quatro factores chave de influência: temperatura, tempo, relação metanol / óleo e massa de catalisador utilizado. O CaO utlizado foi obtido a partir de carbonato de cálcio calcinado numa mufla a 750 °C durante 3 h. Foi posteriormente activado a 900 °C durante 2h, em atmosferas diferentes: azoto (CaO-N2) e ar (CaO-Ar). Avaliaram-se algumas propriedades dos catalisadores assim preparados, força básica, concentração de centros activos e áreas específicas, tendo-se obtido uma força básica situada entre 12 e 14 para ambos os catalisadores, uma concentração de centros activos de 0,0698 mmol/g e 0,0629 mmol/g e áreas específicas de 10 m2/g e 11 m2/g respectivamente para o CaO-N2 e CaO-Ar. Efectuou-se a transesterificação, com catálise homogénea, da mistura de óleos usados utilizada neste trabalho com o objectivo de determinar os limites para o teor de FAME’s (abreviatura do Inglês de Fatty Acid Methyl Esters’) que se poderiam obter. Foi este o parâmetro avaliado em cada uma das amostras obtidas por catálise heterogénea. Os planos factoriais realizados tiveram como objectivo maximizar a sua quantidade recorrendo à relação ideal entre tempo de reacção, temperatura, massa de catalisador e quantidade de metanol. Verificou-se que o valor máximo de FAME’s obtidos a partir deste óleo estava situado ligeiramente acima dos 95 % (m/m). Realizaram-se três planos factoriais com cada um dos catalisadores de CaO até à obtenção das condições óptimas para a reacção. Não se verificou influência significativa da relação entre a quantidade de metanol e a massa de óleo na gama de valores estudada, pelo que se fixou o valor deste factor em 35 ml de metanol / 85g de óleo (relação molar aproximada de 8:1). Verificou-se a elegibilidade do CaO enquanto catalisador para a reacção estudada, não se tendo observado diferenças significativas entre a performance do CaO-N2 e do CaO-Ar. Identificaram-se as condições óptimas para a reacção como sendo os valores de 59 °C para a temperatura, 3h para o tempo e 1,4 % de massa de catalisador relativamente à massa de óleo. Nas referidas condições, obtiveram-se produtos com um teor de FAME’s de 95,7 % na catálise com CaO-N2 e 95,3 % na catálise com CaO-Ar. Alguns autores de estudos consultados no desenvolvimento do presente trabalho, referiam como principal problema da utilização do CaO, a lixiviação de cálcio para os produtos obtidos. Este facto foi confirmado no presente trabalho e na tentativa de o contornar, tentou-se promover a carbonatação do cálcio com a passagem de ar comprimido através dos produtos e subsequente filtração. Após a realização deste tratamento, não mais se observaram alterações nas suas propriedades (aparecimento de turvação ou precipitados), no entanto, nos produtos obtidos nas condições óptimas, a concentração de cálcio determinada foi de 527 mg/kg no produto da reacção catalisada com CaO-N2 e 475 mg/kg com CaO-A. O óxido de cálcio apresentou-se como um excelente catalisador na transesterificação da mistura de óleos alimentares usados utilizada no presente trabalho, apresentando uma performance ao nível da obtida por catálise homogénea básica. Não se observaram diferenças significativas de performance entre o CaO-N2 e o CaO-Ar, sendo possível obter nas mesmas condições reaccionais produtos com teores de FAME’s superiores a 95 % utilizando qualquer um deles como catalisador. O elevado teor de cálcio lixiviado observado nos produtos, apresenta-se como o principal obstáculo à aplicação a nível industrial do óxido de cálcio como catalisador para a transesterificação de óleos.

Interpreting change in human-nature and long term social relationships

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Ciências do Ambiente, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia.

WIDESPREAD CUTANEOUS LESIONS DUE TO Sporothrix schenckii IN A PATIENT UNDER A LONG TERM STEROIDS THERAPY

A case of sporotrichosis in a woman presenting 63 cutaneous lesions distributed all over the tegument is related. The patient had both humoral (Immunoglobulins) and cellular (Lymphocytes subpopulations) immunity within normal limits, but was under treatment with steroid during a long time (Prednisone 10 mg daily for 2 years), due to a sciatic pain. In addition a review of the Brazilian literature on this type of lesions was carried out and commented.

Chronic hepatitis C virus infections in Brazilian patients: association with genotypes, clinical parameters and response to long term alpha interferon therapy

The present study assessed the clinical significance of hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes and their influence on response to long term recombinant-interferon-alpha (r-IFN-a) therapy in Brazilian patients. One hundred and thirty samples from patients previously genotyped for the HCV and with histologically confirmed chronic hepatitis C (CH-C) were evaluated for clinical and epidemiological parameters (sex, age, time of HCV infection and transmission routes). No difference in disease activity, sex, age or mode and time of transmission were seen among patients infected with HCV types 1, 2 or 3. One hundred and thirteen of them were treated with 3 million units of r-IFN-a, 3 times a week for 12 months. Initial response (IR) was significantly better in patients with genotype 2 (100%) and 3 (46%) infections than in patients with genotype 1 (29%) (p < 0.005). Among subtypes, difference in IR was observed between 1b and 2 (p < 0.005), and between 1b and 3a (p < 0.05). Sustained response (SR) was observed in 12% for (sub)type 1a, 13% for 1b, 19% for 3a, and 40% for type 2; significant differences were found between 1b and 2 (p < 0.001), and between 1b and 3a (p < 0.05). Moreover, presence of cirrhosis was significantly associated with non response and response with relapse (p < 0.05). In conclusion, non-1 HCV genotype and lack of histological diagnosis of cirrhosis were the only baseline features associated with sustained response to treatment. These data indicate that HCV genotyping may have prognostic relevance in the responsiveness to r-IFN-a therapy in Brazilian patients with chronic HCV infection, as seen in other reports worldwide.

Nosocomial infection in long-term care facilities. A survey in a Brazilian psychiatric hospital

Nosocomial infection among male patients in a public psychiatric hospital was studied and the definitions for use in long-term care facilities were employed for diagnosis. The overall nosocomial infection rate was 6.7 per 1,000 day inpatients; 55.6% of these infections were identified in the respiratory tract, 50% of them being respiratory viral diseases; 38.9% of the nosocomial infections involved the eyes, ears, nose, throat and mouth, and 5.6% involved the skin and soft tissues. The epidemiological characteristics and the main clinical alterations of these inpatients were also identified.

Nutritonal evaluation of pemphigus foliaceus patients on long term glucocorticoid therapy

Our objective was to compare food intake and nutritional status of Pemphigus Foliaceus patients (PG) on long term glucocorticoid therapy to a Control Group (CG). Fourteen PG female inpatients receiving prednisone (0.33 ± 0.22mg/kg) for at least 12 months and twelve CG subjects were submitted to nutritional evaluation, including anthropometry, urinary creatinine determination and serum biochemical measurements, besides 48-h-based food intake records. Groups were compared by Chi-square, Mann-Whitney and "t" tests. PG patients and CG were paired, respectively, in relation to age (24.7 ± 14.1 vs. 22.0 ± 12.0 years), body mass index (25.8 ± 6.4 vs. 24.0 ± 5.6kg/m2), daily protein intake (132.9 ± 49.8 vs. 95.2 ± 58.9g), and serum albumin (median; range) (3.8; 3.5-4.1 vs. 3.8; 3.6-5.0g/dl). However, PG patients had lower height-creatinine index (64.8 ± 17.6 vs. 90.1 ± 33.4%), and higher daily energy (3080 ± 1099 vs. 2187 ± 702kcal) and carbohydrate (376.8 ± 135.8 vs. 242.0 ± 80.7g) intakes. Despite high food, protein and energy consumption, PG patients on long term glucocorticoid therapy had lower body muscle mass than controls, while showing high body fat stores. These findings are possibly related to combined metabolic effects of long term corticotherapy and inflammatory disease plus corticosteroid-induced increased appetite.

Modulation of inflammatory mediators by Opuntia ficus-indica and Prunus avium bioproducts using an in vitro cell-based model of intestinal inflammation

Dissertation to obtain a Master Degree in Biotechnology

Hepatitis B vaccine in infants: a randomized controlled trial comparing gluteal versus anterolateral thigh muscle administration

A significantly diminished antibody response to hepatitis B vaccine has been demonstrated in adults when the buttock is used as the injection site. However, in Brazil, the buttock continues to be recommended as site of injection for intramuscular administration of vaccines in infants. In this age group, there are no controlled studies evaluating the immunogenicity of the hepatitis B vaccine when administered at this site. In the present study, 258 infants were randomized to receive the hepatitis B vaccine either in the buttock (n = 123) or in the anterolateral thigh muscle (n = 135). The immunization schedule consisted of three doses of hepatitis B vaccine (Engerix Bâ, 10 mug) at 2, 4 and 9 months of age. There were no significant differences in the proportion of seroconversion (99.3% x 99.2%), or in the geometric mean titer of ELISA anti-HBs (1,862.1 x 1,229.0 mIU/mL) between the two groups. This study demonstrates that a satisfactory serological response can be obtained when the hepatitis B vaccine is administered intramuscularly into the buttock.

Nutritional status in relation to the efficacy of the rhesus-human reassortant, tetravalent rotavirus vaccine (RRV-TV) in infants from Belém, Pará State, Brazil

The rhesus-human reassortant, tetravalent rotavirus vaccine (RRV-TV) was licensed for routine use in the United States of America but it was recently withdrawn from the market because of its possible association with intussusception as an adverse event. The protective efficacy of 3 doses of RRV-TV, in its lower-titer (4 x 10(4) pfu/dose) formulation, was evaluated according to the nutritional status of infants who participated in a phase III trial in Belém, Northern Brazil. A moderate protection conferred by RRV-TV was related to weight-for-age Z-scores (WAZ) greater than -1 only, with rates of 38% (p = 0.04) and 40% (p = 0.04) for all- and- pure rotavirus diarrhoeal cases, respectively. In addition, there was a trend for greater efficacy (43%, p = 0.05) among infants reaching an height-for-age Z-score (HAZ) of > -1. Taking WAZ, HAZ and weight-for-height Z-score (WHZ) indices <= -1 together, there was no significant protection (p > 0.05) if both placebo and vaccine groups are compared. There was no significant difference if rates of mixed and pure rotavirus diarrhoeal cases are compared in relation to HAZ, WAZ and weight-for-height Z-score (WHZ) indices. Although a low number of malnourished infants could be identified in the present study, our data show some evidence that malnutrition may interfere with the efficacy of rotavirus vaccines in developing countries.

Long term evaluation of etiological treatment of Chagas disease with benznidazole

The aim of this article is to present an investigation of cure rate, after long follow up, of specific chemotherapy with benznidazole in patients with both acute and chronic Chagas disease, applying quantitative conventional serological tests as the base of the criterion of cure. Twenty one patients with the acute form and 113 with one or other of the various chronic clinical forms of the disease were evaluated, after a follow up period of 13 to 21 years, for the acute, and 6 to 18 years, for the chronic patients. The duration of the acute as well as the chronic disease, a condition which influences the results of the treatment, was determined. The therapeutic schedule was presented, with emphasis on the correlation between adverse reactions and the total dose of 18 grams, approximately, as well as taking into consideration precautions to assure the safety of the treatment. Quantitative serological reactions consisting of complement fixation, indirect immunofluorescence, indirect hemagglutination, and, occasionally, ELISA, were used. Cure was found in 76 per cent of the acute patients but only in 8 per cent of those with chronic forms of the disease. In the light of such contrasting results, fundamentals of the etiological therapy of Chagas disease were discussed, like the criterion of cure, the pathogenesis and the role of immunosuppression showing tissue parasitism in long standing chronic disease, in support of the concept that post-therapeutic consistently positive serological reactions mean the presence of the parasite in the patient's tissues. In relation to the life-cycle of T. cruzi in vertebrate host, there are still some obscure and controversial points, though there is no proof of the existence of resistant or latent forms. However, the finding over the last 15 years, that immunosuppression brings about the reappearance of acute disease in long stand chronic patients justifies a revision of the matter. Facts were quoted in favor of the treatment of chronic patients.