One-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission : a time-series analysis in the rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China

Background: Malaria is a major public health burden in the tropics with the potential to significantly increase in response to climate change. Analyses of data from the recent past can elucidate how short-term variations in weather factors affect malaria transmission. This study explored the impact of climate variability on the transmission of malaria in the tropical rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China. Methods: Ecological time-series analysis was performed on data collected between 1971 and 1999. Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to evaluate the relationship between weather factors and malaria incidence. Results: At the time scale of months, the predictors for malaria incidence included: minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and fog day frequency. The effect of minimum temperature on malaria incidence was greater in the cool months than in the hot months. The fog day frequency in October had a positive effect on malaria incidence in May of the following year. At the time scale of years, the annual fog day frequency was the only weather predictor of the annual incidence of malaria. Conclusion: Fog day frequency was for the first time found to be a predictor of malaria incidence in a rain forest area. The one-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission may involve providing water input and maintaining aquatic breeding sites for mosquitoes in vulnerable times when there is little rainfall in the 6-month dry seasons. These findings should be considered in the prediction of future patterns of malaria for similar tropical rain forest areas worldwide.

Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Systematics and biology of the iconic Australian scribbly gum moths Ogmograptis Meyrick (Lepidoptera: Bucculatricidae) and their unique insect-plant interaction

The larvae of particular Ogmograptis spp. produce distinctive scribbles on some smooth-barked Eucalyptus spp. which are a common feature on many ornamental and forest trees in Australia. However, although they are conspicuous in the environment the systematics and biology of the genus has been poorly studied. This has been addressed through detailed field and laboratory studies of their biology of three species (O. racemosa Horak sp. nov., O. fraxinoides Horak sp. nov., O. scribula Meyrick), in conjunction with a comprehensive taxonomic revision support by a molecular phylogeny utilising the mitochondrial Cox1 and nuclear 18S genes. In brief, eggs are laid in bark depressions and the first instar larvae bore into the bark to the level where the future cork cambium forms (the phellegen). Early instar larvae bore wide, arcing tracks in this layer before forming a tighter zig-zag shaped pattern. The second last instar turns and bores either closely parallel to the initial mine or doubles its width, along the zig-zag shaped mine. The final instar possesses legs and a spinneret (unlike the earlier instars) and feeds exclusively on callus tissue which forms within the zig-zag shaped mine formed by the previous instar, before emerging from the bark to pupate at the base of the tree. The scars of mines them become visible scribble following the shedding of bark. Sequence data confirm the placement of Ogmograptis within the Bucculatricidae, suggest that the larvae responsible for the ‘ghost scribbles’ (unpigmented, raised scars found on smooth-barked eucalypts) are members of the genus Tritymba, and support the morphology-based species groups proposed for Ogmograptis. The formerly monotypic genus Ogmograptis Meyrick is revised and divided into three species groups. Eleven new species are described: Ogmograptis fraxinoides Horak sp. nov., Ogmograptis racemosa Horak sp. nov. and Ogmograptis pilularis Horak sp. nov. forming the scribula group with Ogmograptis scribula Meyrick; Ogmograptis maxdayi Horak sp. nov., Ogmograptis barloworum Horak sp. nov., Ogmograptis paucidentatus Horak sp. nov., Ogmograptis rodens Horak sp. nov., Ogmograptis bignathifer Horak sp. nov. and Ogmograptis inornatus Horak sp. nov. as the maxdayi group; Ogmograptis bipunctatus Horak sp. nov., Ogmograptis pulcher Horak sp. nov., Ogmograptis triradiata (Turner) comb. nov. and Ogmograptis centrospila (Turner) comb. nov. as the triradiata group. Ogmograptis notosema (Meyrick) cannot be assigned to a species group as the holotype has not been located. Three unique synapomorphies, all derived from immatures, redefine the family Bucculatricidae, uniting Ogmograptis, Tritymba Meyrick (both Australian) and Leucoedemia Scoble & Scholtz (African) with Bucculatrix Zeller, which is the sister group of the southern hemisphere genera. The systematic history of Ogmograptis and the Bucculatricidae is discussed.

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest Virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia

BACKGROUND Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Ecological consequences of fragmentation and deforestation in an urban landscape : a case study

Landscape change is an ongoing process even within established urban landscapes. Yet, analyses of fragmentation and deforestation have focused primarily on the conversion of non-urban to urban landscapes in rural landscapes and ignored urban landscapes. To determine the ecological effects of continued urbanization in urban landscapes, tree-covered patches were mapped in the Gwynns Falls watershed (17158.6 ha) in Maryland for 1994 and 1999 to document fragmentation, deforestation, and reforestation. The watershed was divided into lower (urban core), middle (older suburbs), and upper (recent suburbs) subsections. Over the entire watershed a net of 264.5 of 4855.5 ha of tree-covered patches were converted to urban land use-125 new tree-covered patches were added through fragmentation, 4 were added through reforestation, 43 were lost through deforestation, and 7 were combined with an adjacent patch. In addition, 180 patches were reduced in size. In the urban core, deforestation continued with conversion to commercial land use. Because of the lack of vegetation, commercial land uses are problematic for both species conservation and derived ecosystem benefits. In the lower subsection, shape complexity increased for tree-covered patches less than 10 ha. Changes in shape resulted from canopy expansion, planted materials, and reforestation of vacant sites. In the middle and upper subsections, the shape index value for tree-covered patches decreased, indicating simplification. Density analyses of the subsections showed no change with respect to patch densities but pointed out the importance of small patches (≤5 ha) as "stepping stone" to link large patches (e. g., ≥100 ha). Using an urban forest effect model, we estimated, for the entire watershed, total carbon loss and pollution removal, from 1994 to 1999, to be 14,235,889.2 kg and 13,011.4 kg, respectively due to urban land-use conversions.

'Not a Local Win': Rural Australian perceptions of the sustainable impacts of forest plantations

Australian forestry plantations have doubled in the past 15 years, with rural communities harbouring a diverse range of positive and negative of economic, environmental and social impacts – the so-called triple bottom line (TBL). Utilising two Australian rural communities in Eden/Gippsland and Tasmania as qualitative case studies, this research explores how 23 non-forestry affiliated rural residents perceived and experienced the TBL economic, environmental and social impacts of plantation forestry. Residents criticised the economic plantation forestry benefits because of lengthy periods of inactivity and limited local employment, explaining that their community was reliant on the industry yet the promised economic benefits had never fully materialised. There was a sense the industry ‘plant and walk away.’ Residents were concerned about the environment impact on water quality, water tables and fire hazards, although they praised plantation forestry for carbon sequestering, eradicating erosion and water run-off. Negative social impacts were described, specifically how the land-use change from farming to forestry had significantly reduced the local population, employment and need for services. Natural resource management and communication strategies are offered, derived from non-forestry affiliated rural resident perspectives on how best to ensure sustainable forest development in their community.

Spatial analysis of risk factors for transmission of the Barmah forest virus in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is the second most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia but few data are available on the risk factors. We assessed the impact of spatial climatic, socioeconomic and ecological factors on the transmission of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia, using spatial regression. All our analyses indicate that spatial lag models provide a superior fit to the data compared to spatial error and ordinary least square models. The residuals of the spatial lag models were found to be uncorrelated, indicating that the models adequately account for spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Our results revealed that minimum temperature, distance from coast and low tide were negatively and rainfall was positively associated with BFV disease in coastal areas, whereas minimum temperature and high tide were negatively and rainfall was positively associated with BFV disease (all P-value.

Bat colony size reduction coincides with clear-fell harvest operations and high rates of roost loss in plantation forest

Clear-fell harvest of forest concerns many wildlife biologists because of loss of vital resources such as roosts or nests, and effects on population viability. However, actual impact has not been quantified. Using New Zealand long-tailed bats (Chalinolobus tuberculatus) as a model species we investigated impacts of clear-fell logging on bats in plantation forest. C. tuberculatus roost within the oldest stands in plantation forest so it was likely roost availability would decrease as harvest operations occurred. We predicted that post-harvest: (1) roosting range sizes would be smaller, (2) fewer roosts would be used, and (3) colony size would be smaller. We captured and radiotracked C. tuberculatus to day-roosts in Kinleith Forest, an exotic plantation forest, over three southern hemisphere summers (Season 1 October 2006–March 2007; Season 2 November 2007–March 2008; and Season 3 November 2008–March 2009). Individual roosting ranges (100% MCPs) post harvest were smaller than those in areas that had not been harvested, and declined in area during the 3 years. Following harvest, bats used fewer roosts than those in areas that had not been harvested. Over 3 years 20.7% of known roosts were lost: 14.5% due to forestry operations and 6.2% due to natural tree fall. Median colony size was 4.0 bats (IQR = 2.0–8.0) and declined during the study, probably because of locally high levels of roost loss. Post harvest colonies were smaller than colonies in areas that had not been harvested. Together, these results suggest the impact of clear-fell harvest on long-tailed bat populations is negative.

The importance of exotic plantation forest for the New Zealand long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus)

Environmental certification schemes have stimulated increasing interest in biodiversity and its management within exotic plantation forests. These schemes expect management to be scientifically-based, even though little is known about how often, or which, native species use exotic plantation forests. Greater knowledge of the ecology of native species within exotic plantation forests is required to advise management and reduce risks to native species, particularly those that are rare, such as the New Zealand long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus). Long-tailed bats use exotic plantation forests throughout New Zealand but need protection from the impacts of forest management, and particularly clear-fell harvest, that is achievable only through a better understanding of their biology. The consequences of the current reduced re-planting, and the conversion of plantation forests into pasture resulting in smaller forested areas, should not be ignored because they may be associated with reductions in long-tailed bat populations. We review the current knowledge of long-tailed bats' use of exotic plantation forests, and report for the first time which exotic plantations long-tailed bats are known to use. We make recommendations for the design of monitoring programmes to detect long-tailed bats within plantation forests, and for research into the effects of forest management, especially logging, and comment on the likely impacts of reductions in forested areas on long-tailed bats.

Long-tailed bats' use of a Pinus radiata stand in Kinleith Forest : Recommendations for monitoring

Targeted monitoring of threatened species within plantations is becoming more important due to forest certification programmes’ requirement to consider protection of threatened species, and to increase knowledge of the distribution of species. To determine patterns of long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus) activity in different habitat structures, with the aim of improving the likelihood of detection by targeting monitoring, we monitored one stand of 26 year-old Pinus radiata over seven months between December 2007 and June 2008 in Kinleith Forest, an exotic plantation forest centred around Tokoroa, South Waikato, New Zealand. Activity was determined by acoustic recording equipment, which is able to detect and record bats’ echolocation calls. We monitored activity from sunset to sunrise along a road through the stand, along stand edges, and in the interior of the stand. Bats were recorded on 80% of the 35 nights monitored. All activity throughout the monitoring period was detected on the edge of the stand or along the road. No bats were detected within the interior of the stand. Bat activity was highest along the road through the stand (40.4% of all passes), followed by an edge with stream running alongside (35.2%), along the road within a skidsite (19.8%), and along an edge without a stream (4.6%). There was a significant positive relationship between bat pass rate (bat passes h-1) and the feeding buzz rate (feeding buzzes h-1) indicating that bat activity was associated with feeding and not just commuting. Bat feeding activity was also highest along the road through the stand (59.2% of feeding buzzes), followed by the road within the skidsite (30.6%), and along the stream-side edge (10.2%). No feeding buzzes were recorded in either the interior or along the edge without the stream. Differences in overall feeding activity were significant only between the road and edge and between edges with and without a stream. Bat activity was detected each month and always by the second night of monitoring, and in this stand was highest during April. We recommend targeted monitoring for long-tailed bats be focused on road-side and stand edge habitat, and along streams, and that monitoring take place for at least three nights to maximise probability of detection.

Effects of mesostructured silica catalysts on the depolymerization of organosolv lignin fractionated from woody eucalyptus

Isolated and purified organosolv eucalyptus wood lignin was depolymerized at different temperatures with and without mesostructured silica catalysts (i.e., SBA-15, MCM-41, ZrO2-SBA-15 and ZrO2-MCM-41). It was found that at 300 oC for 1 h with a solid/liquid ratio of 0.0175/1 (w/v), the SBA-15 catalyst with high acidity gave the highest syringol yield of 23.0% in a methanol/water mixture (50/50, wt/wt). Doping with ZrO2 over these catalysts did not increase syringol yield, but increased the total amount of solid residue. Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) also identified other main phenolic compounds such as 1-(4-hydroxy-3,5-dimethoxyphenyl)-ethanone, 1,2-benzenediol, and 4-hydroxy-3,5-dimethoxy-benzaldehyde. Analysis of the lignin residues with Fourier transform-Infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) indicated decreases in the absorption bands intensities of OH group, C-O stretching of syringyl ring and aromatic C-H deformation of syringol unit, and an increase in band intensities associated with the guaiacyl ring, confirming the type of products formed.

Adoption of alternative habitats by a threatened, "obligate" forest-dwelling bat in a fragmented landscape

While they are among the most ecologically important animals within forest ecosystems, little is known about how bats respond to habitat loss and fragmentation. The threatened lesser short-tailed bat (Mystacina tuberculata), considered to be an obligate deep-forest species, is one of only 2 extant land mammals endemic to New Zealand; it plays a number of important roles within native forests, including pollination and seed dispersal, and rarely occurs in modified forests. We used radiotelemetry to study the movements, roosting behavior, and habitat use of M. tuberculata within a fragmented landscape comprised of 3 main habitat types: open space (harvested forest and pastoral land), native forests, and exotic pine plantations. We found that the bats had smaller home-range areas and travelled shorter nightly distances than populations investigated previously from contiguous native forest. Furthermore, M. tuberculata occupied all 3 habitat types, with native forest being preferred overall. However, individual variation in habitat selection was high, with some bats preferring exotic plantation and open space over native forest. Roosting patterns were similar to those previously observed in contiguous forest; individual bats often switched between communal and solitary roosts. Our findings indicate that M. tuberculata exhibit some degree of behavioral plasticity that allows them to adapt to different landscape mosaics and exploit alternative habitats. To our knowledge, this is the first such documentation of plasticity in habitat use for a bat species believed to be an obligate forest-dweller.

Nocturnal Perching of Scarabaeine Dung Beetles (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae) in an Australian Tropical Rain Forest

Wongabel, a northeastern Queensland tropical, wet, evergreen forest, contains 22 species of Scarabaeinae dung beetles. Five of these species were observed to perch commonly on leaves at night. Length of the beetle and the height of its perch were recorded for each of 56 1 specimens. Unlike the New World tropical dung beetle perchers, no clear evidence was found that small species perched closer to the ground than larger species. The evidence gathered, at least for the four most common perchers, supports the hypothesis that perching is one type of foraging strategy. The similarities and differences between the Australian and New World perchers are discussed.

Developing African mahogany (Khaya senegalensis) germplasm and its management for a sustainable forest plantation industry in northern Australia: Progress and needs.

The demonstrated wide adaptability, substantial yield potential and proven timber quality of African mahogany (Khaya senegalensis) from plantings of the late 1960s and early 1970s in northern Australia have led to a resurgence of interest in this high-value species. New plantations or trials have been established in several regions since the early 1990s -in four regions in north Queensland, two in the Northern Territory and one in Western Australia. Overall, more than 1500 ha had been planted by early 2007, and the national annual planting from 2007-2008 as currently planned will exceed 2400 ha. Proceedings of two workshops have summarised information available on the species in northern Australia, and suggested research and development (R&D) needs and directions. After an unsustained first phase of domestication of K. senegalensis in the late 1960s to the early 1970s, a second phase began in northern Australia in 2001 focused on conservation and tree improvement that is expected to provide improved planting stock by 2010. Work on other aspects of domestication is also described in this paper: the current estate and plans for extension; site suitability, soils and nutrition; silviculture and management; productivity; pests and diseases; and log and wood properties of a sample of superior trees from two mature plantations of unselected material near Darwin. Some constraints on sustainable plantation development in all these fields are identified and R&D needs proposed. A sustained R&D effort will require a strategic coordinated approach, cooperative implementation and extra funding. Large gains in plantation profitability can be expected to flow from such inputs.

Achievements in forest tree improvement in Australia and New Zealand 6: Genetic improvement and conservation of Araucaria cunninghamii in Queensland

Araucaria cunninghamii (hoop pine) typically occurs as an emergent tree over subtropical and tropical rainforests, in a discontinuous distribution that extends from West Irian Jaya at about 0°30'S, through the highlands of Indonesian New Guinea and Papua New Guinea, along the east coast of Australia from 11°39'S in Queensland to 30°35'S in northern New South Wales. Plantations established in Queensland since the 1920s now total about 44000 ha, and constitute the primary source for the continuing supply of hoop pine quality timber and pulpwood, with a sustainable harvest exceeding 440 000 m3 y-1. Establishment of these managed plantations allowed logging of all native forests of Araucaria species (hoop pine and bunya pine, A. bidwillii) on state-owned lands to cease in the late 1980s, and the preservation of large areas of araucarian forest types within a system of state-owned and managed reserves. The successful plantation program with this species has been strongly supported by genetic improvement activities since the late 1940s - through knowledge of provenance variation and reproductive biology, the provision of reliable sources of improved seed, and the capture of substantial genetic gains in traits of economic importance (for example growth, stem straightness, internode length and spiral grain). As such, hoop pine is one of the few tropical tree species that, for more than half a century, has been the subject of continuous genetic improvement. The history of commercialisation and genetic improvement of hoop pine provides an excellent example of the dual economic and conservation benefits that may be obtained in tropical tree species through the integration of gene conservation and genetic improvement with commercial plantation development. This paper outlines the natural distribution and reproductive biology of hoop pine, describes the major achievements of the genetic improvement program in Queensland over the past 50+ y, summarises current understanding of the genetic variation and control of key selection traits, and outlines the means by which genetic diversity in the species is being conserved.