Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons

The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual horizons. The data to be used consists of metal-commodity prices in a monthly frequency from 1957 to 2012 from the International Financial Statistics of the IMF on individual metal series. We will also employ the (relatively large) list of co-variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009) , which are available for download. Regarding short- and long-run comovement, we will apply the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature to build parsimonious VARs, which possibly entail quasi-structural relationships between different commodity prices and/or between a given commodity price and its potential demand determinants. These parsimonious VARs will be later used as forecasting models to be combined to yield metal-commodity prices optimal forecasts. Regarding out-of-sample forecasts, we will use a variety of models (linear and non-linear, single equation and multivariate) and a variety of co-variates to forecast the returns and prices of metal commodities. With the forecasts of a large number of models (N large) and a large number of time periods (T large), we will apply the techniques put forth by the common-feature literature on forecast combinations. The main contribution of this paper is to understand the short-run dynamics of metal prices. We show theoretically that there must be a positive correlation between metal-price variation and industrial-production variation if metal supply is held fixed in the short run when demand is optimally chosen taking into account optimal production for the industrial sector. This is simply a consequence of the derived-demand model for cost-minimizing firms. Our empirical evidence fully supports this theoretical result, with overwhelming evidence that cycles in metal prices are synchronized with those in industrial production. This evidence is stronger regarding the global economy but holds as well for the U.S. economy to a lesser degree. Regarding forecasting, we show that models incorporating (short-run) commoncycle restrictions perform better than unrestricted models, with an important role for industrial production as a predictor for metal-price variation. Still, in most cases, forecast combination techniques outperform individual models.

Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons

The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual frequencies. Data consists of metal-commodity prices at a monthly and quarterly frequencies from 1957 to 2012, extracted from the IFS, and annual data, provided from 1900-2010 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). We also employ the (relatively large) list of co-variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009). We investigate short- and long-run comovement by applying the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature. One of the main contributions of this paper is to understand the short-run dynamics of metal prices. We show theoretically that there must be a positive correlation between metal-price variation and industrial-production variation if metal supply is held fixed in the short run when demand is optimally chosen taking into account optimal production for the industrial sector. This is simply a consequence of the derived-demand model for cost-minimizing firms. Our empirical evidence fully supports this theoretical result, with overwhelming evidence that cycles in metal prices are synchronized with those in industrial production. This evidence is stronger regarding the global economy but holds as well for the U.S. economy to a lesser degree. Regarding out-of-sample forecasts, our main contribution is to show the benefits of forecast-combination techniques, which outperform individual-model forecasts - including the random-walk model. We use a variety of models (linear and non-linear, single equation and multivariate) and a variety of co-variates and functional forms to forecast the returns and prices of metal commodities. Using a large number of models (N large) and a large number of time periods (T large), we apply the techniques put forth by the common-feature literature on forecast combinations. Empirically, we show that models incorporating (short-run) common-cycle restrictions perform better than unrestricted models, with an important role for industrial production as a predictor for metal-price variation.

Dispersal and predation behavior in larvae of Chrysomya albiceps and Chrysomya megacephala (Diptera : Calliphoridae)

Chrysomya albiceps and Chrysomya megacephala are exotic blowfly species known by producing myiasis in humans and other animals and by transmitting pathogens mechanically. C. albiceps stand out by being a facultative predator of other dipteran larvae. In this paper we investigated the influence of larval predation on the dispersal of larvae of C. albiceps and C. megacephala single and double species for three photophases. An experimental acrylic channel graduated and covered with wood shavings was used to observe the larval dispersal. The results showed that C. albiceps attacks C. megacephala larvae during dispersal and keeps an aggregated pattern close to the release point, in single and double species, independently of the different photophases. Chrysomya megacephala single species exhibited the same pattern, but in double species this was changed to a random distribution.

Dispersal and burial behavior in larvae of Chrysomya megacephala and Chrysomya albiceps (Diptera, Calliphoridae)

Blowflies use discrete and ephemeral substrates to feed their larva. After they run out of food, the larvae begin to disperse in order to find adequate places for pupation or additional food sources, a process named post-feeding larval dispersal. Briefly state the aspects and why they are important were studied in a circular arena of 25 cm in diameter and covered with wood shavings to a height of 40 cm allowing post-feeding dispersal from the center of the arena. Larvae of both Chrysomya albiceps and C. megacephala were used in five experiments for each species. For each pupa location, determined as distance from the center, depth, and weight were evaluated. Statistical tests were done to verify the relation between weight, depth and distance for pupation and for larvae of two species shows that the media distance is significantly different for two species and for C. megacephala this distance is greater than the distance for C. albiceps. The depth too is different for each species, as the larvae of C. megacephala buries deeper than C. albiceps. With relation of weight, there is no statistic evidence that have any difference between weights for pupation for each species.

Influence of the environment on behavior patterns of laying hens kept in cages

The aim of this paper is to verify the correlation between environmental indicators and behaviors expressed by laying hens kept in cages. The birds react to a severe environment through their behaviors, end the behaviors can be monitored to identify the birds' welfare conditions. The behaviors birds display ere the result of stress caused by the combination of environmental temperature, relative humidity, radiant heat, and air speed (environmental temperature being the most important). In order to check the influence of the environment, an experiment was carried out on a commercial poultry farm, located in the city of Bastos. The study was initiated in March 2007, during four non-consecutive weeks. The birds' behaviors were recorded using video, by cameras installed in the cages. The birds behaviors were identified and noted for the frequency of occurrence for each bird, and the average duration of each behavior (in seconds), using video samples of 15 minutes recorded from 1 PM to 4 PM. The environmental variables collected were: air temperature, concentration of ammonia, relative air humidity, velocity of the air, noise, roof temperature, and light intensity. The observed behaviors were: opening wings, stretching, threatening, ruffling feathers, drinking water, aggressive pecking, eating, running, lying down, stretching head out of the cage, preening, mounting and prostrating. Principal Components Analysis was used to determine associations between the behavior variables and environmental variables described above. In this experiment, there were no significant correlations between behavioral variables and environmental variables.

Therapist’s directive and nondirective behavior: analysis of their effects in a parent training group

The study described the interaction between therapist and clients in a group intervention with two mothers and a grandmother. Five out of thirteen taped sessions were designated for analysis. Main results: a) therapist’s categories that stood out: approval, recommendation, interpretation, information and information request; b) clients’ categories that stood out: report, agreement, relation, and opposition, c) the probability for recommendation coupled with use of approval exceeded the probability of occurrence of other combinations. Possible explanations for the results were offered and new research questions were raised.

Talking bodies: nonverbal behavior in the assessment of depression severity

BACKGROUND: Evaluations of clinical depression are traditionally based on verbal information. Nonverbal expressive behavior, however, being associated with a person's reflexive responses, may reveal negative emotional or social processes that are not under complete control of the patients. However, investigations of nonverbal behavior in the evaluation of depressed patients are still scarce. This study examines the nonverbal behaviors of a group of Brazilian patients, associating their nonverbal behavior with severity of depression. METHODS: Forty depressed patients were evaluated at baseline (T0) and after a two-week transcranial direct current stimulation treatment (T1), according to rating scales and through a 21-category Ethogram for assessment of the frequency of nonverbal behaviors displayed during an interview. RESULTS: Behaviors that were related to negative feelings and social disinterest decreased with corresponding clinical improvement and were associated with increased severity of symptoms at T0 and greater negative affect and dissatisfaction at T1. Pro-social behaviors were associated with milder symptoms at T0 and increased after treatment. Facial, head and hand expressive movements stood out as important indicators because of their associations with severity of depression. LIMITATIONS: Duration of behaviors was not assessed and there was not a healthy control group with which to compare the findings. CONCLUSIONS: These results support the usefulness of nonverbal behavior as an evaluation technique in the assessment of clinical depression.

The Family Partners Credit Card: A Token Economy System Adapted for Intensive Family Preservation Services to Enable Families to Manage Difficult Behavior of Adolescents

Increasingly, families referred for Intensive Family Preservation Services have not experienced a crisis of maltreatment, focused on the parent; rather these families have children with chronic behavioral difficulties for which their parents lack the skills to cope. These are the same families whose children were formerly placed in residential programs. This paper presents The Family Partners Credit Card System, incorporating behavioral techniques developed to treat children in out-of-home placements into a family preservation model. Two case examples illustrate how the system has been modified to train biological or adoptive parents in parenting skills, enable them to teach their children pro-family behaviors, and reinforce new behaviors through a credit card that monitors an ongoing balance of credits and fines.

High-Spin Molecules: Synthesis, X-ray Characterization, and Magnetic Behavior of Two New Cyano-Bridged Ni II 9 Mo V 6 and Ni II 9 W V 6 Clusters with a S = 12 Ground State

The preparations, X-ray structures, and magnetic characterizations are presented for two new pentadecanuclear cluster compounds:  [NiII{NiII(MeOH)3}8(μ-CN)30{MV(CN)3}6]·xMeOH·yH2O (MV = MoV (1) with x = 17, y = 1; MV = WV (2) with x = 15, y = 0). Both compounds crystallize in the monoclinic space group C2/c, with cell dimensions of a = 28.4957(18) Å, b = 19.2583(10) Å, c = 32.4279(17) Å, β = 113.155(6)°, and Z = 4 for 1 and a = 28.5278(16) Å, b = 19.2008(18) Å, c = 32.4072(17) Å, β = 113.727(6)°, and Z = 4 for 2. The structures of 1 and 2 consist of neutral cluster complexes comprising 15 metal ions, 9 NiII and 6 MV, all linked by μ-cyano ligands. Magnetic susceptibilities and magnetization measurements of compounds 1 and 2 in the crystalline and dissolved state indicate that these clusters have a S = 12 ground state, originating from intracluster ferromagnetic exchange interactions between the μ-cyano-bridged metal ions of the type NiII−NC−MV. Indeed, these data show clearly that the cluster molecules stay intact in solution. Ac magnetic susceptibility measurements reveal that the cluster compounds exhibit magnetic susceptibility relaxation phenomena at low temperatures since, with nonzero dc fields, χ‘ ‘M has a nonzero value that is frequency dependent. However, there appears no out-of-phase (χ‘ ‘M) signal in zero dc field down to 1.8 K, which excludes the expected signature for a single molecule magnet. This finding is confirmed with the small uniaxial magnetic anisotropy value for D of 0.015 cm-1, deduced from the high-field, high-frequency EPR measurement, which distinctly reveals a positive sign in D. Obviously, the overall magnetic anisotropy of the compounds is too low, and this may be a consequence of a small single ion magnetic anisotropy combined with the highly symmetric arrangement of the metal ions in the cluster molecule.

Experimental and numerical study of cracking of concrete due to reinforcement corrosion

La corrosión del acero es una de las patologías más importantes que afectan a las estructuras de hormigón armado que están expuestas a ambientes marinos o al ataque de sales fundentes. Cuando se produce corrosión, se genera una capa de óxido alrededor de la superficie de las armaduras, que ocupa un volumen mayor que el acero inicial; como consecuencia, el óxido ejerce presiones internas en el hormigón circundante, que lleva a la fisuración y, ocasionalmente, al desprendimiento del recubrimiento de hormigón. Durante los últimos años, numerosos estudios han contribuido a ampliar el conocimiento sobre el proceso de fisuración; sin embargo, aún existen muchas incertidumbres respecto al comportamiento mecánico de la capa de óxido, que es fundamental para predecir la fisuración. Por ello, en esta tesis se ha desarrollado y aplicado una metodología, para mejorar el conocimiento respecto al comportamiento del sistema acero-óxido-hormigón, combinando experimentos y simulaciones numéricas. Se han realizado ensayos de corrosión acelerada en condiciones de laboratorio, utilizando la técnica de corriente impresa. Con el objetivo de obtener información cercana a la capa de acero, como muestras se seleccionaron prismas de hormigón con un tubo de acero liso como armadura, que se diseñaron para conseguir la formación de una única fisura principal en el recubrimiento. Durante los ensayos, las muestras se equiparon con instrumentos especialmente diseñados para medir la variación de diámetro y volumen interior de los tubos, y se midió la apertura de la fisura principal utilizando un extensómetro comercial, adaptado a la geometría de las muestras. Las condiciones de contorno se diseñaron cuidadosamente para que los campos de corriente y deformación fuesen planos durante los ensayos, resultando en corrosión uniforme a lo largo del tubo, para poder reproducir los ensayos en simulaciones numéricas. Se ensayaron series con varias densidades de corriente y varias profundidades de corrosión. De manera complementaria, el comportamiento en fractura del hormigón se caracterizó en ensayos independientes, y se midió la pérdida gravimétrica de los tubos siguiendo procedimientos estándar. En todos los ensayos, la fisura principal creció muy despacio durante las primeras micras de profundidad de corrosión, pero después de una cierta profundidad crítica, la fisura se desarrolló completamente, con un aumento rápido de su apertura; la densidad de corriente influye en la profundidad de corrosión crítica. Las variaciones de diámetro interior y de volumen interior de los tubos mostraron tendencias diferentes entre sí, lo que indica que la deformación del tubo no fue uniforme. Después de la corrosión acelerada, las muestras se cortaron en rebanadas, que se utilizaron en ensayos post-corrosión. El patrón de fisuración se estudió a lo largo del tubo, en rebanadas que se impregnaron en vacío con resina y fluoresceína para mejorar la visibilidad de las fisuras bajo luz ultravioleta, y se estudió la presencia de óxido dentro de las grietas. En todas las muestras, se formó una fisura principal en el recubrimiento, infiltrada con óxido, y varias fisuras secundarias finas alrededor del tubo; el número de fisuras varió con la profundidad de corrosión de las muestras. Para muestras con la misma corrosión, el número de fisuras y su posición fue diferente entre muestras y entre secciones de una misma muestra, debido a la heterogeneidad del hormigón. Finalmente, se investigó la adherencia entre el acero y el hormigón, utilizando un dispositivo diseñado para empujar el tubo en el hormigón. Las curvas de tensión frente a desplazamiento del tubo presentaron un pico marcado, seguido de un descenso constante; la profundidad de corrosión y la apertura de fisura de las muestras influyeron notablemente en la tensión residual del ensayo. Para simular la fisuración del hormigón causada por la corrosión de las armaduras, se programó un modelo numérico. Éste combina elementos finitos con fisura embebida adaptable que reproducen la fractura del hormigón conforme al modelo de fisura cohesiva estándar, y elementos de interfaz llamados elementos junta expansiva, que se programaron específicamente para reproducir la expansión volumétrica del óxido y que incorporan su comportamiento mecánico. En el elemento junta expansiva se implementó un fenómeno de despegue, concretamente de deslizamiento y separación, que resultó fundamental para obtener localización de fisuras adecuada, y que se consiguió con una fuerte reducción de la rigidez tangencial y la rigidez en tracción del óxido. Con este modelo, se realizaron simulaciones de los ensayos, utilizando modelos bidimensionales de las muestras con elementos finitos. Como datos para el comportamiento en fractura del hormigón, se utilizaron las propiedades determinadas en experimentos. Para el óxido, inicialmente se supuso un comportamiento fluido, con deslizamiento y separación casi perfectos. Después, se realizó un ajuste de los parámetros del elemento junta expansiva para reproducir los resultados experimentales. Se observó que variaciones en la rigidez normal del óxido apenas afectaban a los resultados, y que los demás parámetros apenas afectaban a la apertura de fisura; sin embargo, la deformación del tubo resultó ser muy sensible a variaciones en los parámetros del óxido, debido a la flexibilidad de la pared de los tubos, lo que resultó fundamental para determinar indirectamente los valores de los parámetros constitutivos del óxido. Finalmente, se realizaron simulaciones definitivas de los ensayos. El modelo reprodujo la profundidad de corrosión crítica y el comportamiento final de las curvas experimentales; se comprobó que la variación de diámetro interior de los tubos está fuertemente influenciada por su posición relativa respecto a la fisura principal, en concordancia con los resultados experimentales. De la comparación de los resultados experimentales y numéricos, se pudo extraer información sobre las propiedades del óxido que de otra manera no habría podido obtenerse. Corrosion of steel is one of the main pathologies affecting reinforced concrete structures exposed to marine environments or to molten salt. When corrosion occurs, an oxide layer develops around the reinforcement surface, which occupies a greater volume than the initial steel; thus, it induces internal pressure on the surrounding concrete that leads to cracking and, eventually, to full-spalling of the concrete cover. During the last years much effort has been devoted to understand the process of cracking; however, there is still a lack of knowledge regarding the mechanical behavior of the oxide layer, which is essential in the prediction of cracking. Thus, a methodology has been developed and applied in this thesis to gain further understanding of the behavior of the steel-oxide-concrete system, combining experiments and numerical simulations. Accelerated corrosion tests were carried out in laboratory conditions, using the impressed current technique. To get experimental information close to the oxide layer, concrete prisms with a smooth steel tube as reinforcement were selected as specimens, which were designed to get a single main crack across the cover. During the tests, the specimens were equipped with instruments that were specially designed to measure the variation of inner diameter and volume of the tubes, and the width of the main crack was recorded using a commercial extensometer that was adapted to the geometry of the specimens. The boundary conditions were carefully designed so that plane current and strain fields were expected during the tests, resulting in nearly uniform corrosion along the length of the tube, so that the tests could be reproduced in numerical simulations. Series of tests were carried out with various current densities and corrosion depths. Complementarily, the fracture behavior of concrete was characterized in independent tests, and the gravimetric loss of the steel tubes was determined by standard means. In all the tests, the main crack grew very slowly during the first microns of corrosion depth, but after a critical corrosion depth it fully developed and opened faster; the current density influenced the critical corrosion depth. The variation of inner diameter and inner volume of the tubes had different trends, which indicates that the deformation of the tube was not uniform. After accelerated corrosion, the specimens were cut into slices, which were used in post-corrosion tests. The pattern of cracking along the reinforcement was investigated in slices that were impregnated under vacuum with resin containing fluorescein to enhance the visibility of cracks under ultraviolet lightening and a study was carried out to assess the presence of oxide into the cracks. In all the specimens, a main crack developed through the concrete cover, which was infiltrated with oxide, and several thin secondary cracks around the reinforcement; the number of cracks diminished with the corrosion depth of the specimen. For specimens with the same corrosion, the number of cracks and their position varied from one specimen to another and between cross-sections of a given specimen, due to the heterogeneity of concrete. Finally, the bond between the steel and the concrete was investigated, using a device designed to push the tubes of steel in the concrete. The curves of stress versus displacement of the tube presented a marked peak, followed by a steady descent, with notably influence of the corrosion depth and the crack width on the residual stress. To simulate cracking of concrete due to corrosion of the reinforcement, a numerical model was implemented. It combines finite elements with an embedded adaptable crack that reproduces cracking of concrete according to the basic cohesive model, and interface elements so-called expansive joint elements, which were specially designed to reproduce the volumetric expansion of oxide and incorporate its mechanical behavior. In the expansive joint element, a debonding effect was implemented consisting of sliding and separation, which was proved to be essential to achieve proper localization of cracks, and was achieved by strongly reducing the shear and the tensile stiffnesses of the oxide. With that model, simulations of the accelerated corrosion tests were carried out on 2- dimensional finite element models of the specimens. For the fracture behavior of concrete, the properties experimentally determined were used as input. For the oxide, initially a fluidlike behavior was assumed with nearly perfect sliding and separation; then the parameters of the expansive joint element were modified to fit the experimental results. Changes in the bulk modulus of the oxide barely affected the results and changes in the remaining parameters had a moderate effect on the predicted crack width; however, the deformation of the tube was very sensitive to variations in the parameters of oxide, due to the flexibility of the tube wall, which was crucial for indirect determination of the constitutive parameters of oxide. Finally, definitive simulations of the tests were carried out. The model reproduced the critical corrosion depth and the final behavior of the experimental curves; it was assessed that the variation of inner diameter of the tubes is highly influenced by its relative position with respect to the main crack, in accordance with the experimental observations. From the comparison of the experimental and numerical results, some properties of the mechanical behavior of the oxide were disclosed that otherwise could not have been measured.

Analysis of the problems associated with dynamic interaction between train, track and structure at transition zones

El gran desarrollo experimentado por la alta velocidad en los principales países de la Unión Europea, en los últimos 30 años, hace que este campo haya sido y aún sea uno de los principales referentes en lo que a investigación se refiere. Por otra parte, la aparición del concepto super − alta velocidad hace que la investigación en el campo de la ingeniería ferroviaria siga adquiriendo importancia en los principales centros de investigación de los países en los que se desea implantar este modo de transporte, o en los que habiendo sido ya implantado, se pretenda mejorar. Las premisas de eficacia, eficiencia, seguridad y confort, que este medio de transporte tiene como razón de ser pueden verse comprometidas por diversos factores. Las zonas de transición, definidas en la ingeniería ferroviaria como aquellas secciones en las que se produce un cambio en las condiciones de soporte de la vía, pueden afectar al normal comportamiento para el que fue diseñada la infraestructura, comprometiendo seriamente los estándares de eficiencia en el tiempo de viaje, confort de los pasajeros y aumentando considerablemente los costes de mantenimiento de la vía, si no se toman las medidas oportunas. En esta tesis se realiza un estudio detallado de la zonas de transición, concretamente de aquellas en las que existe una cambio en la rigidez vertical de la vía debido a la presencia de un marco hidráulico. Para realizar dicho estudio se lleva a cabo un análisis numérico de interacción entre el vehículo y la estructura, con un modelo bidimensional de elemento finitos, calibrado experimentalmente, en estado de tensión plana. En este análisis se tiene en cuenta el efecto de las irregularidades de la vía y el comportamiento mecánico de la interfaz suelo-estructura, con el objetivo de reproducir de la forma más real posible el efecto de interacción entre el vehículo, la vía y la estructura. Otros efectos como la influencia de la velocidad del tren y los asientos diferenciales, debidos a deformaciones por consolidación de los terraplenes a ambos lados el marco hidráulico, son también analizados en este trabajo. En esta tesis, los cálculos de interacción se han llevado a cabo en dos fases diferentes. En la primera, se ha considerado una interacción sencilla debida al paso de un bogie de un tren Eurostar. Los cálculos derivados de esta fase se han denominado cálculos a corto plazo. En la segunda, se ha realizado un análisis considerando múltiples pasos de bogie del tren Eurostar, conformando un análisis de degradación en el que se tiene en cuenta, en cada ciclo, la deformación de la capa de balasto. Los cálculos derivados de esta fase, son denominados en el texto como cálculos a largo plazo. Los resultados analizados muestran que la utilización de los denominados elementos de contacto es fundamental cuando se desea estudiar la influencia de asientos diferenciales, especialmente en transiciones terraplén-estructura en las que la cuña de cimentación no llega hasta la base de cimentación de la estructura. Por otra parte, tener en cuenta los asientos del terraplén, es sumamente importante, cuando se desea realizar un análisis de degradación de la vía ya que su influencia en la interacción entre el vehículo y la vía es muy elevada, especialmente para valores altos de velocidad del tren. En cuanto a la influencia de las irregularidades de la vía, en los cálculos efectuados, se revela que su importancia es muy notable, siendo su influencia muy destacada cuanto mayor sea la velocidad del tren. En este punto cabe destacar la diferencia de resultados derivada de la consideración de perfiles de irregularidades de distinta naturaleza. Los resultados provenientes de considerar perfiles artificiales son en general muy elevados, siendo estos más apropiados para realizar estudios de otra índole, como por ejemplo de seguridad al descarrilamiento. Los resultados provenientes de perfiles reales, dados por diferentes Administradores ferroviarios, presentan resultados menos elevados y más propios del problema analizar. Su influencia en la interacción dinámica entre el vehículo y la vía es muy importante, especialmente para velocidades elevadas del tren. Además el fenómeno de degradación conocido como danza de traviesas, asociado a zonas de transición, es muy susceptible a la consideración de irregularidades de la vía, tal y como se desprende de los cálculos efectuados a largo plazo. The major development experienced by high speed in the main countries of the European Union, in the last 30 years, makes railway research one of the main references in the research field. It should also be mentioned that the emergence of the concept superhigh − speed makes research in the field of Railway Engineering continues to gain importance in major research centers in the countries in which this mode of transportation is already implemented or planned to be implemented. The characteristics that this transport has as rationale such as: effectiveness, efficiency, safety and comfort, may be compromised by several factors. The transition zones are defined in railway engineering as a region in which there is an abrupt change of track stiffness. This stiffness variation can affect the normal behavior for which the infrastructure has been designed, seriously compromising efficiency standards in the travel time, passenger comfort and significantly increasing the costs of track maintenance, if appropriate measures are not taken. In this thesis a detailed study of the transition zones has been performed, particularly of those in which there is a change in vertical stiffness of the track due to the presence of a reinforced concrete culvert. To perform such a study a numerical interaction analysis between the vehicle, the track and the structure has been developed. With this purpose a two-dimensional finite element model, experimentally calibrated, in a state of plane stress, has been used. The implemented numerical models have considered the effects of track irregularities and mechanical behavior of soil-structure interface, with the objective of reproducing as accurately as possible the dynamic interaction between the vehicle the track and the structure. Other effects such as the influence of train speed and differential settlement, due to secondary consolidation of the embankments on both sides of culvert, have also been analyzed. In this work, the interaction analysis has been carried out in two different phases. In the first part a simple interaction due to the passage of a bogie of a Eurostar train has been considered. Calculations derived from this phase have been named short-term analysis. In the second part, a multi-load assessment considering an Eurostar train bogie moving along the transition zone, has been performed. The objective here is to simulate a degradation process in which vertical deformation of the ballast layer was considered. Calculations derived from this phase have been named long-term analysis. The analyzed results show that the use of so-called contact elements is essential when one wants to analyze the influence of differential settlements, especially in embankment-structure transitions in which the wedge-shaped backfill does not reach the foundation base of the structure. Moreover, considering embankment settlement is extremely important when it is desired to perform an analysis of track degradation. In these cases the influence on the interaction behaviour between the vehicle and the track is very high, especially for higher values of speed train. Regarding the influence of the track irregularities, this study has proven that the track’s dynamic response is heavily influenced by the irregularity profile and that this influence is more important for higher train velocities. It should also be noted that the difference in results derived from consideration of irregularities profiles of different nature. The results coming from artificial profiles are generally very high, these might be more appropriate in order to study other effects, such as derailment safety. Results from real profiles, given by the monitoring works of different rail Managers, are softer and they fit better to the context of this thesis. The influence of irregularity profiles on the dynamic interaction between the train and the track is very important, especially for high-speeds of the train. Furthermore, the degradation phenomenon known as hanging sleepers, associated with transition zones, is very susceptible to the consideration of track irregularities, as it can be concluded from the long-term analysis.

Use of Extended Characteristics of Locomotion and Feeding Behavior for Automated Identification of Lame Dairy Cows.

This study was carried out to detect differences in locomotion and feeding behavior in lame (group L; n = 41; gait score ≥ 2.5) and non-lame (group C; n = 12; gait score ≤ 2) multiparous Holstein cows in a cross-sectional study design. A model for automatic lameness detection was created, using data from accelerometers attached to the hind limbs and noseband sensors attached to the head. Each cow's gait was videotaped and scored on a 5-point scale before and after a period of 3 consecutive days of behavioral data recording. The mean value of 3 independent experienced observers was taken as a definite gait score and considered to be the gold standard. For statistical analysis, data from the noseband sensor and one of two accelerometers per cow (randomly selected) of 2 out of 3 randomly selected days was used. For comparison between group L and group C, the T-test, the Aspin-Welch Test and the Wilcoxon Test were used. The sensitivity and specificity for lameness detection was determined with logistic regression and ROC-analysis. Group L compared to group C had significantly lower eating and ruminating time, fewer eating chews, ruminating chews and ruminating boluses, longer lying time and lying bout duration, lower standing time, fewer standing and walking bouts, fewer, slower and shorter strides and a lower walking speed. The model considering the number of standing bouts and walking speed was the best predictor of cows being lame with a sensitivity of 90.2% and specificity of 91.7%. Sensitivity and specificity of the lameness detection model were considered to be very high, even without the use of halter data. It was concluded that under the conditions of the study farm, accelerometer data were suitable for accurately distinguishing between lame and non-lame dairy cows, even in cases of slight lameness with a gait score of 2.5.

Behavior analysis of oithona in hypoxic/anoxic conditions

Senior thesis written for Oceanography 445

Mollusca Non-Grata: The influence of top-down control and residence time on the abundance, distribution, and behavior of non-native marine snails in Washington State

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Research on the influence of behavioral forces that motivate trader behavior and sentiment: A prospect theory exegesis

This study focuses on empirical investigations and seeks implications by utilizing three different methodologies to test various aspects of trader behavior. The first methodology utilizes Prospect Theory to determine trader behavior during periods of extreme wealth contracting periods. Secondly, a threshold model to examine the sentiment variable is formulated and thirdly a study is made of the contagion effect and trader behavior. ^ The connection between consumers' sense of financial well-being or sentiment and stock market performance has been studied at length. However, without data on actual versus experimental performance, implications based on this relationship are meaningless. The empirical agenda included examining a proprietary file of daily trader activities over a five-year period. Overall, during periods of extreme wealth altering conditions, traders "satisfice" rather than choose the "best" alternative. A trader's degree of loss aversion depends on his/her prior investment performance. A model that explains the behavior of traders during periods of turmoil is developed. Prospect Theory and the data file influenced the design of the model. ^ Additional research included testing a model that permitted the data to signal the crisis through a threshold model. The third empirical study sought to investigate the existence of contagion caused by declining global wealth effects using evidence from the mining industry in Canada. Contagion, where a financial crisis begins locally and subsequently spreads elsewhere, has been studied in terms of correlations among similar regions. The results provide support for Prospect Theory in two out of the three empirical studies. ^ The dissertation emphasizes the need for specifying precise, testable models of investors' expectations by providing tools to identify paradoxical behavior patterns. True enhancements in this field must include empirical research utilizing reliable data sources to mitigate data mining problems and allow researchers to distinguish between expectations-based and risk-based explanations of behavior. Through this type of research, it may be possible to systematically exploit "irrational" market behavior. ^