Adjusting to external imbalances within the EMU, the case of Portugal

From 1995 to 2010 Portugal has accumulated a negative international asset position of 110 percent of GDP. In a developed and aging economy the number is astonishing and any argument to consider it sustainable must rely on extremely favorable forecasts on growth. Portuguese policy options are reduced in number: no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and limited discretion in changing fiscal deficits and government debt. To start the necessary deleveraging a remaining possible policy is a budget-neutral change of the tax structure that increases private saving and net exports. An increase in the VAT and a decrease in the employer’s social security contribution tax can achieve the desired outcome in the short run if they are complemented with wage moderation. To obtain a substantial improvement in competitiveness and a large decrease in consumption, the changes in the tax rates have to be large. While a precise quantitative assessment is difficult, the initial increase in the effective VAT rate needed to allow the social security tax to decrease by 16 percentage points (pp) is approximately 10 pp. Such a large increase in the effective VAT rate could be obtained by raising most of the reduced VAT rates to the new general VAT rate of 23 percent. The empirical analysis shows that over time the suggested tax swap could generate surpluses and improve the trade balance. A temporary version of the suggested tax-swap has the attractiveness to achieve a sharper increase in the private saving rate maintaining the short run gains in competitiveness. Finally, the temporary version of the fiscal devaluation could be the basis for an automatic stabilizer to external imbalances within a monetary union.Portugal has been running large current account deficits every year since 1995. These deficits have accumulated to an astonishing 110 percent of GDP negative external asset position. The sustainability of such a large external position is questionable and must rely on fantastic productivity growth expectations. The recent global financial crisis appears to have anticipated the international investors reality check on those future expectations with the result of a large increase in the cost of external financing. Today the rebalancing of the current account through an increase in national savings and an improvement in competitiveness must be at the top of the Portuguese authorities “to do” list as the cost of a pull out from international investors is of the order of 10% of GDP. The external rebalancing is difficult as the degrees of freedom of the Portuguese authorities are limited in number: they have no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and little discretion in fiscal policy as deficit limits and debt targets are set by the Stability Growth Pact and the postcrisis consensus on medium-term fiscal consolidation. One possibility that remains is to change the fiscal policy mix for a given budget deficit. The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of a “fiscal devaluation”1 obtained through a tax swap between employers’ social security contributions and taxes on consumption2. The paper begins by illustrating Portugal’s current account evolution during the euro period. The second section section lays out a model to offer a qualitative assessment of the dynamic outcomes of the the tax swap. I show that the suggested tax swap can in theory achieve the desired outcomes in terms of competitiveness and consumption if complemented with moderation (stickiness) in wages. I also study the effects of a temporary version of the tax swap and show that it achieves a sharper improvement in the current account that accelerate the rebalancing. The third section moves to the empirical analysis and estimates the likely effects of the tax swap for the Portuguese economy. The fourth section concludes.

O biofeedback cinemático na realização de exercícios escápulo-torácicos

RESUMO: O Biofeedback cinemático na realização de exercícios escápulo-torácicos Patrícia Ribeiro; Ricardo Matias Desenho do estudo: Estudo quantitativo, experimental, prospetivo de fator único. Objetivos: Determinar a efetividade do biofeedback cinemático tridimensional (3D) em tempo real, como informação de retorno extrínseca, no reconhecimento da zona neutra da omoplata, em indivíduos saudáveis; medir o desempenho temporal, através do tempo que os sujeitos demoram a atingir a posição pretendida, e o desempenho no percurso, através da diferença entre o percurso efetuado e aquele que seria o percurso mais curto, sem Informação de Retorno Extrínseca (IRE), com Informação de Retorno Extrínseca clinica verbal e palpatória (IRE-VP) e com informação de retorno extrínseca visual cinemática (IRE-VC). Enquadramento: Reconhecer aquela que deve ser a posição adequada da omoplata e tomar consciência da importância dessa posição para a estabilidade e correto funcionamento da articulação gleno-umeral é uma tarefa difícil, pois a grande maioria do indivíduos não têm os conhecimentos necessários. É reconhecido o contributo que a IRE tem na reaprendizagem motora, em especial na primeira fase da aprendizagem motora – a consciencialização. Vários estudos se têm debruçado em avaliar a influencia da IRE na reabilitação de indivíduos com disfunção do ombro, tendo-se limitado ao formato electromiográfico. No sentido de encontrar novas estratégias para facilitar o processo de reaprendizagem motora nestes indivíduos, foi escolhido biofeedback cinemático tridimensional. Métodos: Participaram no estudo 60 sujeitos, sem queixas de dor no ombro, com idades compreendidas entre os 18 e os 54 anos, com um valor médio de 21,66 anos (±5.89), divididos aleatoriamente em três grupos com uma tarefa comum: o reconhecimento da zona neutra da omoplata. Um grupo não recebeu qualquer tipo de IRE - Grupo Controlo (GC), outro grupo recebeu IRE-VP e outro recebeu IRE-VC. Para efeitos de análise da performance foram consideradas duas variáveis: tempo e qualidade da execução. A abordagem estatística destas variáveis consistiu numa análise de variância simples e num teste de comparações múltiplas. Resultados: Observámos que o grupo controlo e o grupo IRE-VC efetuaram a tarefa pedida em menos tempo que o grupo IRE-VP (p<0.01) e que o grupo IRE-VC obteve melhores resultados no que respeita à qualidade da execução da tarefa do que o GC e o grupo IRE-VP (p<0.01). Conclusão: Pelos resultados obtidos, na tarefa de reconhecimento da zona neutra da omoplata, podemos concluir que o biofeedback cinemático é mais efetivo na facilitação da obtenção de melhor qualidade de execução da tarefa do que o feedback clinico ou a inexistência de feedback e igualmente efetivo à inexistência de IRE no que respeita ao tempo demorado a reconhecer essa posição. -------------- ABSTRACT:Study Design: Single factor experimental design. Objectives: To determine the effectiveness of real time cinematic biofeedback as extrinsic information in the recognition of the neutral zone of the scapula in healthy subjects; to measure the temporal performance and quality of the execution without extrinsic feedback, with clinical feedback and with cinematic feedback. Background: To recognize the proper scapula position and to be aware of the importance of this position to the stability and correct function of the gleno-umeral joint is a difficult task, because most people don’t have the necessary knowledge. It is known that extrinsic feedback is effective in motor learning, specially in the early stages. There are several studies that evaluated the influence of extrinsic feedback in rehabilitation of shoulder dysfunctions, but only in the electromyography format. Material and Methods: Sixty healthy subjects were randomly divided into 3 groups that received no feedback (group 1 – control group), verbal and palpatory feedback (group 2) and real time cinematic feedback (group 3). The performance variables considered – time and quality of execution - were statistically analyzed with ANOVA one-way and multiple comparisons test. Results: Control group and group 3 executed the task in less time that group 2 (p<0.01) and group 3 executed the task with better quality than control group and group 2 (p<0.01). Conclusions: From the results of this study we conclude that in the studied task, the cinematic feedback is more effective to facilitate a better quality of execution than no feedback or clinical feedback and, regarding to time taken to attain the requested position, equally effective to no feedback.

Degradabilidade in situ da jurema Preta (Mimosa tenuiflora) oriunda de caatinga raleada e enriquecida.

Resumo: Objetivou-se avaliar a degradação in situ da Jurema preta. Foram estimados os valores da degradação potencial e efetiva da matéria seca, proteína bruta e fibra em detergente neutro. A jurema preta apresenta bom potencial de degradação para matéria seca e fibra em detergente neutro, já para a proteína bruta, parece haver necessidade de ação enzimática pós rúmen para que seja melhor aproveitada. [In situ degradability of jurema preta (Mimosa tenuiflora) in thinned and enriched caatinga rangelands]. Abstract: We aimed with this manuscript to present the evaluation of in situ degradability of Jurema preta in thinned and enriched caatinga. Were estimated the potential and effective degradation of dry matter, crude protein and neutral detergent fiber. The jurema preta shrubs have good potential to dry matter and neutral detergent fiber degradation, but to crude protein, to maximize their harnessing the post rumen digestion is needed.

Machine learning Gaussian short rate

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Estatística e Gestão do Risco

Humor impresso: cultura e política em O Espreitador do Mundo Novo

The aim of this paper is to identify, analyse and question the expressions of humour in O Espreitador do Mundo Novo, a monthly periodical published by José Daniel Rodrigues da Costa throughout 1802. It is a chapter of a PhD thesis in History and Theory of Ideas with the title “Correcting by laughter. Humour in Portuguese periodical press 1797-1834”. Positing humour as a social and cultural phenomenon, it is regarded here in a broad sense, comprehending wit, joke, ridicule, satire, jest, mockery, facetiousness or irony, displayed with recourse to various figures of speech. This interdisciplinary work intends listing and researching the themes and issues of the periodical and its targets, namely the social, age or gender stereotypes and to acknowledge its political stances. Another main purpose of this paper is to assess the role of humour as expressed in the printed periodical as a political and social weapon, criticizing ways (and which ways) and/or fashions, often ridiculing novelty just for being new in order to maintain the statu quo, and to establish in which senses humour was used in the context of late Ancien Régime and early liberalism culture. The humour of O Espreitador has also played a part in framing a public sphere in early nineteenth-century Portugal, as can be seen by the different “stages” and backgrounds where the monthly installments of the periodical take place: squares, coffee houses, fairgrounds, private houses, jailhouses, churches, public promenades, pilgrimages, bullfights, parties, the opera house – each of them a space of sociability and socialization. In this one, as in other periodicals of the time, printed humour stands at the crossroads of politics and culture, in spaces boldly widening before the reader. Albeit, there are quite a few loud silences in O Espreitador: not even the slightest remark to the church, the clergy or the Inquisition, only reverential references to the established order and the powers that be. The periodical criticizes the criticizers; it is against those who are against. The repeated disclaimers are intended not only to protect the author from libel suits or other litigation. They belong to a centuries-old tradition which, as early as the Middle Ages, has set apart escárnio (scorn) from maldizer (slander): José Daniel Rodrigues da Costa distinguishes satire from rebuking vice – a “cheerful criticism” forerunner of the ironic humour which was to become a trademark of Portuguese literature in the second half of the nineteenth century. Targeting those who deviate from the social norm (for example social climbers and older women who marry young men) or the followers of fashion (sometimes specifically “French fashion”), O Espreitador charges at liberal and progressive ideas. It ridicules the ways of the “New World” in order to perpetuate an idealized version of the “Old World”. Notwithstanding two exceptions – it condemns racism and bullfighting –, the humour of O Espreitador is conservative and conformist from a social and political standpoint.

Characterization and regulation of a bacterial sugar phosphatase of the HAD superfamily, AraL, from Bacillus subtilis.

AraL from Bacillus subtilis is a member of the ubiquitous haloalkanoate dehalogenase, HAD, superfamily. The araL gene has been cloned, over-expressed in Escherichia coli and its product purified to homogeneity. The enzyme displays phosphatase activity, which is optimal at neutral pH (7.0) and 65 °C. Substrate screening and kinetic analysis showed AraL to have low specificity and catalytic activity towards several sugar phosphates, which are metabolic intermediates of the glycolytic and pentose phosphate pathways. Based on substrate specificity and gene context within the arabinose metabolic operon, a putative physiological role of AraL in detoxification of accidental accumulation of phosphorylated metabolites has been proposed. The ability of AraL to catabolise several related secondary metabolites requires regulation at the genetic level. Here, by site- directed mutagenesis, we show that AraL production is regulated by a structure in the translation initiation region of the mRNA, which most probably blocks access to the ribosome-binding site, preventing protein synthesis. Members of HAD subfamily IIA and IIB are characterised by a broad-range and overlapping specificity that anticipated the need for regulation at the genetic level. In this study we provide evidence for the existence of a genetic regulatory mechanism controlling AraL production.

Bioremediation and CO2 scavenging using molybdenum-containing enzymes

Carbon dioxide valorization, will not only help to relieve the greenhouse effect but might also allow us to transform it in value-added chemicals that will help overcoming the energy crisis. To accomplish this goal, more research that focus on sequestering CO2 and endeavors through a carbon-neutral or carbon-negative strategy is needed in order to handle with the dwindling fossil fuel supplies and their environmental impact. Formate dehydrogenases are a promising means of turning CO2 into a biofuel that will allow for a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and for a significant change to the economic paramount. The main objective of this work was to assess whether a NAD+-independent molybdenum-containing formate dehydrogenase is able to catalyze the reduction of CO2 to formate. To achieve this, a molybdenum-containing formate dehydrogenase was isolated from the sulfate reducing bacteria Desulfovibrio desulfuricans ATCC 27774. Growth conditions were found that allowed for a greater cellular mass recovery and formate dehydrogenase expression. After growth trials, kinetic assays for formate oxidation and CO2 reduction were performed and kinetic parameters determined. For the formate oxidation reaction, a KM of 49 μM and a turnover constant of 146 s-1 were determined. These kinetic parameters are in agreement with those determined by Mota, et al. (2011). Finally, we found that this molybdenum-containing enzyme was able to catalyze the reduction of CO2 to formate with a turnover constant of 4.6 s-1 and a KM of 13 μM. For the first time a NAD+-independent molybdenum-containing formate dehydrogenase was found to catalyze CO2 reduction, allowing its use as a biocatalyst in energetically efficient CO2 fixation processes that can be directed towards bioremediation or as an alternative and renewable energy source. Characterizing these enzymes may lead to the development of more efficient synthetic catalysts, make them readily available and more suited for practical applications.

Trading the differences in expectations between the CDS and bond markets

This paper uses the framework developed by Vrugt (2010) to extract the recovery rate and term-structure of risk-neutral default probabilities implied in the cross-section of Portuguese sovereign bonds outstanding between March and August 2011. During this period the expectations on the recovery rate remain firmly anchored around 50 percent while the instantaneous default probability increases steadily from 6 to above 30 percent. These parameters are then used to calculate the fair-value of a 5-year and 10- year CDS contract. A credit-risk-neutral strategy is developed from the difference between the market price of a CDS of the same tenors and the fair-value calculated, yielding a sharpe ratio of 3.2

Reactive electron scattering from biomolecules and technologically relevant molecules

The role of a set of gases relevant within the context of biomolecules and technologically relevant molecules under the interaction of low-energy electrons was studied in an effort to contribute to the understanding of the underlying processes yielding negative ion formation. The results are relevant within the context of damage to living material exposed to energetic radiation, to the role of dopants in the ion-molecule chemistry processes, to Electron Beam Induced Deposition (EBID) and Ion Beam Induced Deposition (IBID) techniques. The research described in this thesis addresses dissociative electron attachment (DEA) and electron transfer studies involving experimental setups from the University of Innsbruck, Austria and Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Portugal, respectively. This thesis presents DEA studies, obtained by a double focusing mass spectrometer, of dimethyl disulphide (C2H6S2), two isomers, enflurane and isoflurane (C3F5Cl5) and two chlorinated ethanes, pentachloroethane (C2HCl5) and hexachloroethane (C2Cl6), along with quantum chemical calculations providing information on the molecular orbitals as well as thermochemical thresholds of anion formation for enflurane, isoflurane, pentachloroethane and hexachloroethane. The experiments represent the most accurate DEA studies to these molecules, with significant differences from previous work reported in the literature. As far as electron transfer studies are concerned, negative ion formation in collisions of neutral potassium atoms with N1 and N3 methylated pyrimidine molecules were obtained by time-of-flight mass spectrometry (TOF). The results obtained allowed to propose concerted mechanisms for site and bond selective excision of bonds.

Semantics bias in cross-national comparative analyses : Is it good or bad to have "fair" health?

The Health Behavior in School-aged Children is a cross-national study collecting data on social and health indicators on adolescents in 43 countries. The study provides comparable data on health behaviors and health outcomes through the use of a common protocol, which have been a back bone of the study sine its initiation in 1983. Recent years, researchers within the study have noticed a questionable comparability on the widely used item on self-rated health. One of the four response categories to the item "Would you say your health is….?" showed particular variation, as the response category "Fair" varied from 20 % in Latvia and Moldova to 3-4 % in Bulgaria and Macedonia. A qualitative mini-survey of the back-translations showed that the response category "Fair" had a negative slant in 25 countries, a positive slant in 10 countries and was considered neutral in 9 countries. This finding indicates that there are what may be called semantic issues affecting comparability in international studies, since the same original word (in an English original) is interpreted differently across countries and cultures. The paper test and discuss a few possible explanations to this, however, only leaving to future studies to hold a cautious approach to international comparisons if working with the self-rated health item with four response categories.

EDP inovcity: Electricity feedback with smart meters through TV

In this work project I propose an innovative service – Electricity Feedback with Smart Meters through TV – to be considered as an additional test in the residential electricity use feedback trials currently being conducted in EDP’s InovCity project. My proposal is based on relevant past and current research studies, both Portuguese and international, which explain and support the proposed operationalization and characteristics of this new service. Furthermore, a careful analysis about the segmentation framing, the best market entry strategy and the consequences of adopting a joint venture with cable TV operators, is also provided. Finally, I present a SWOT analysis and highlight critical issues affecting the effectiveness of feedback which require further research.

O financiamento hospitalar e a definição de preços

RESUMO - Inseridos num contexto onde as unidades prestadoras de cuidados de saúde não possuem autonomia para fixar os seus próprios preços, estuda-se através do presente documento o processo de definição de preços do internamento hospitalar português entre 1993 e 2001, no sentido de aferir o grau de sinalização proporcionado ao mercado, uma vez que, na sua essência, um sistema de preços constitui um sistema de incentivos influenciador de comportamentos produtivos ao nível prestador. Utilizou-se a base de dados nacionais do sistema de classificação de doentes Grupos de Diagnóstico Homogéneos e foi caracterizada a evolução e tendência dos pesos relativos dos produtos do internamento hospitalar português. Foi também avaliada a relação da estrutura de preços com a quantidade produzida, a eficiência técnica e as necessidades em saúde da população portuguesa durante o período considerado. Apesar de existir alguma instabilidade durante o período analisado, o ponto de partida e de chegada não diferiu significativamente. Não foi encontrado nenhum padrão de variação que explicasse a instabilidade encontrada entre os produtos mais complexos, mais produzidos ou os que apresentaram maior/menor variação ao longo da década de 90. A hipótese relativa à correlação entre a evolução de preços e as variáveis quantidade, eficiência e necessidades também foi infirmada. Conclui-se que a utilização do sistema de preços constituiu na sua essência um sistema de incentivos neutro, não foi sinalizador para os prestadores e possuiu uma forte correlação com o nível de reposição de custos históricos dos hospitais portugueses.

Improving practical reasoning and argumentation

This thesis justifies the need for and develops a new integrated model of practical reasoning and argumentation. After framing the work in terms of what is reasonable rather than what is rational (chapter 1), I apply the model for practical argumentation analysis and evaluation provided by Fairclough and Fairclough (2012) to a paradigm case of unreasonable individual practical argumentation provided by mass murderer Anders Behring Breivik (chapter 2). The application shows that by following the model, Breivik is relatively easily able to conclude that his reasoning to mass murder is reasonable – which is understood to be an unacceptable result. Causes for the model to allow such a conclusion are identified as conceptual confusions ingrained in the model, a tension in how values function within the model, and a lack of creativity from Breivik. Distinguishing between dialectical and dialogical, reasoning and argumentation, for individual and multiple participants, chapter 3 addresses these conceptual confusions and helps lay the foundation for the design of a new integrated model for practical reasoning and argumentation (chapter 4). After laying out the theoretical aspects of the new model, it is then used to re-test Breivik’s reasoning in light of a developed discussion regarding the motivation for the new place and role of moral considerations (chapter 5). The application of the new model shows ways that Breivik could have been able to conclude that his practical argumentation was unreasonable and is thus argued to have improved upon the Fairclough and Fairclough model. It is acknowledged, however, that since the model cannot guarantee a reasonable conclusion, improving the critical creative capacity of the individual using it is also of paramount importance (chapter 6). The thesis concludes by discussing the contemporary importance of improving practical reasoning and by pointing to areas for further research (chapter 7).

Can gendered advergames make children develop favorable attitudes and behaviors towards healthy food?

This paper aims to analyze the possibility of having an impact of gender segmentation in food advergames on children’s attitudes and behaviors towards healthy food. A specific healthy advergame with three versions – two segmented by gender and one neutral gendered – was developed for the study. A total of 286 Portuguese children from 7 to 9 years old participated in the study and were randomly assigned to either the experimental or the control groups. After playing the advergame, children answered a structured questionnaire to evaluate liking and purchase intention of healthy food, as well as, perceived fun and perceived healthiness. The results suggested that advergames segmented by gender did not influence children’s liking, purchase intention and perceived fun of healthy food, since children already had positive eating behaviors. Moreover, we confirmed that children presented a high perceived healthiness.

The role of information systems in business process redesign : a case of Turkish electricity market

This study is specifically concerned with the effect of the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) on the Business Process Redesign (BPR). Researcher’s experience and the investigation on previous researches imply that BPR and ERP are deeply related to each other and a study to found the mentioned relation further is necessary. In order to elaborate the hypothesis, a case study, in particular Turkish electricity distribution market and the phase of privatization are investigated. Eight companies that have taken part in privatization process and executed BPR serve as cases in this study. During the research, the cases are evaluated through critical success factors on both BPR and ERP. It was seen that combining the ERP Solution features with business processes lead the companies to be successful in ERP and BPR implementation. When the companies’ success and efficiency were compared before and after the ERP implementation, a considerable change was observed in organizational structure. It was spotted that the team composition is important in the success of ERP projects. Additionally, when the ERP is in driver or enabler role, the companies can be considered successful. On the contrary, when the ERP has a neutral role of business processes, the project fails. In conclusion, it can be said that the companies, which have implemented the ERP successfully, have accomplished the goals of the BPR.