MGOF: Stata module to perform goodness-of-fit tests for multinomial data

mgof computes goodness-of-fit tests for the distribution of a discrete (categorical, multinomial) variable. The default is to perform classical large sample chi-squared approximation tests based on Pearson's X2 statistic and the log likelihood ratio (G2) statistic or a statistic from the Cressie-Read family. Alternatively, mgof computes exact tests using Monte Carlo methods or exhaustive enumeration. A Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for discrete data is also provided. The moremata package, also available from SSC, is required.

Multinomial goodness-of-fit: large sample tests with survey design correction and exact tests for small samples

A new Stata command called -mgof- is introduced. The command is used to compute distributional tests for discrete (categorical, multinomial) variables. Apart from classic large sample $\chi^2$-approximation tests based on Pearson's $X^2$, the likelihood ratio, or any other statistic from the power-divergence family (Cressie and Read 1984), large sample tests for complex survey designs and exact tests for small samples are supported. The complex survey correction is based on the approach by Rao and Scott (1981) and parallels the survey design correction used for independence tests in -svy:tabulate-. The exact tests are computed using Monte Carlo methods or exhaustive enumeration. An exact Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for discrete data is also provided.

On ANOVA Decompositions of Kernels and Gaussian Random Field Paths

The FANOVA (or “Sobol’-Hoeffding”) decomposition of multivariate functions has been used for high-dimensional model representation and global sensitivity analysis. When the objective function f has no simple analytic form and is costly to evaluate, computing FANOVA terms may be unaffordable due to numerical integration costs. Several approximate approaches relying on Gaussian random field (GRF) models have been proposed to alleviate these costs, where f is substituted by a (kriging) predictor or by conditional simulations. Here we focus on FANOVA decompositions of GRF sample paths, and we notably introduce an associated kernel decomposition into 4 d 4d terms called KANOVA. An interpretation in terms of tensor product projections is obtained, and it is shown that projected kernels control both the sparsity of GRF sample paths and the dependence structure between FANOVA effects. Applications on simulated data show the relevance of the approach for designing new classes of covariance kernels dedicated to high-dimensional kriging.

Genetic algorithms in statistical tolerancing

An important aspect in manufacturing design is the distribution of geometrical tolerances so that an assembly functions with given probability, while minimising the manufacturing cost. This requires a complex search over a multidimensional domain, much of which leads to infeasible solutions and which can have many local minima. As well, Monte-Carlo methods are often required to determine the probability that the assembly functions as designed. This paper describes a genetic algorithm for carrying out this search and successfully applies it to two specific mechanical designs, enabling comparisons of a new statistical tolerancing design method with existing methods. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Performance comparisons between greedy and lagrange algorithms in adaptive MIMO MC-CDMA systems

This paper describes two algorithms for adaptive power and bit allocations in a multiple input multiple output multiple-carrier code division multiple access (MIMO MC-CDMA) system. The first is the greedy algorithm, which has already been presented in the literature. The other one, which is proposed by the authors, is based on the use of the Lagrange multiplier method. The performances of the two algorithms are compared via Monte Carlo simulations. At present stage, the simulations are restricted to a single user MIMO MC-CDMA system, which is equivalent to a MIMO OFDM system. It is assumed that the system operates in a frequency selective fading environment. The transmitter has a partial knowledge of the channel whose properties are measured at the receiver. The use of the two algorithms results in similar system performances. The advantage of the Lagrange algorithm is that is much faster than the greedy algorithm. ©2005 IEEE

Probabilistic cost benefit analysis of generation investment in a deregulated electricity market

A new methodology is proposed for the analysis of generation capacity investment in a deregulated market environment. This methodology proposes to make the investment appraisal using a probabilistic framework. The probabilistic production simulation (PPC) algorithm is used to compute the expected energy generated, taking into account system load variations and plant forced outage rates, while the Monte Carlo approach has been applied to model the electricity price variability seen in a realistic network. The model is able to capture the price and hence the profitability uncertainties for generator companies. Seasonal variation in the electricity prices and the system demand are independently modeled. The method is validated on IEEE RTS system, augmented with realistic market and plant data, by using it to compare the financial viability of several generator investments applying either conventional or directly connected generator (powerformer) technologies. The significance of the results is assessed using several financial risk measures.

Regression with input-dependent noise: A Gaussian process treatment

Gaussian processes provide natural non-parametric prior distributions over regression functions. In this paper we consider regression problems where there is noise on the output, and the variance of the noise depends on the inputs. If we assume that the noise is a smooth function of the inputs, then it is natural to model the noise variance using a second Gaussian process, in addition to the Gaussian process governing the noise-free output value. We show that prior uncertainty about the parameters controlling both processes can be handled and that the posterior distribution of the noise rate can be sampled from using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Our results on a synthetic data set give a posterior noise variance that well-approximates the true variance.

Bayesian inference for wind field retrieval

In many problems in spatial statistics it is necessary to infer a global problem solution by combining local models. A principled approach to this problem is to develop a global probabilistic model for the relationships between local variables and to use this as the prior in a Bayesian inference procedure. We show how a Gaussian process with hyper-parameters estimated from Numerical Weather Prediction Models yields meteorologically convincing wind fields. We use neural networks to make local estimates of wind vector probabilities. The resulting inference problem cannot be solved analytically, but Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods allow us to retrieve accurate wind fields.

Modelling frontal discontinuities in wind fields

A Bayesian procedure for the retrieval of wind vectors over the ocean using satellite borne scatterometers requires realistic prior near-surface wind field models over the oceans. We have implemented carefully chosen vector Gaussian Process models; however in some cases these models are too smooth to reproduce real atmospheric features, such as fronts. At the scale of the scatterometer observations, fronts appear as discontinuities in wind direction. Due to the nature of the retrieval problem a simple discontinuity model is not feasible, and hence we have developed a constrained discontinuity vector Gaussian Process model which ensures realistic fronts. We describe the generative model and show how to compute the data likelihood given the model. We show the results of inference using the model with Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods on both synthetic and real data.

Neural network regression with input uncertainty

It is generally assumed when using Bayesian inference methods for neural networks that the input data contains no noise or corruption. For real-world (errors in variable) problems this is clearly an unsafe assumption. This paper presents a Bayesian neural network framework which allows for input noise given that some model of the noise process exists. In the limit where this noise process is small and symmetric it is shown, using the Laplace approximation, that there is an additional term to the usual Bayesian error bar which depends on the variance of the input noise process. Further, by treating the true (noiseless) input as a hidden variable and sampling this jointly with the network's weights, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, it is demonstrated that it is possible to infer the unbiassed regression over the noiseless input.

Bayesian inference for wind field retrieval

In many problems in spatial statistics it is necessary to infer a global problem solution by combining local models. A principled approach to this problem is to develop a global probabilistic model for the relationships between local variables and to use this as the prior in a Bayesian inference procedure. We show how a Gaussian process with hyper-parameters estimated from Numerical Weather Prediction Models yields meteorologically convincing wind fields. We use neural networks to make local estimates of wind vector probabilities. The resulting inference problem cannot be solved analytically, but Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods allow us to retrieve accurate wind fields.

A projected process kriging algorithm for sensor networks with heterogeneous error characteristics

Large monitoring networks are becoming increasingly common and can generate large datasets from thousands to millions of observations in size, often with high temporal resolution. Processing large datasets using traditional geostatistical methods is prohibitively slow and in real world applications different types of sensor can be found across a monitoring network. Heterogeneities in the error characteristics of different sensors, both in terms of distribution and magnitude, presents problems for generating coherent maps. An assumption in traditional geostatistics is that observations are made directly of the underlying process being studied and that the observations are contaminated with Gaussian errors. Under this assumption, sub–optimal predictions will be obtained if the error characteristics of the sensor are effectively non–Gaussian. One method, model based geostatistics, assumes that a Gaussian process prior is imposed over the (latent) process being studied and that the sensor model forms part of the likelihood term. One problem with this type of approach is that the corresponding posterior distribution will be non–Gaussian and computationally demanding as Monte Carlo methods have to be used. An extension of a sequential, approximate Bayesian inference method enables observations with arbitrary likelihoods to be treated, in a projected process kriging framework which is less computationally intensive. The approach is illustrated using a simulated dataset with a range of sensor models and error characteristics.

Secrecy Capacity Analysis Over κ–μ Fading Channels: Theory and Applications

In this paper, we consider the transmission of confidential information over a κ-μ fading channel in the presence of an eavesdropper who also experiences κ-μ fading. In particular, we obtain novel analytical solutions for the probability of strictly positive secrecy capacity (SPSC) and a lower bound of secure outage probability (SOPL) for independent and non-identically distributed channel coefficients without parameter constraints. We also provide a closed-form expression for the probability of SPSC when the μ parameter is assumed to take positive integer values. Monte-Carlo simulations are performed to verify the derived results. The versatility of the κ-μ fading model means that the results presented in this paper can be used to determine the probability of SPSC and SOPL for a large number of other fading scenarios, such as Rayleigh, Rice (Nakagamin), Nakagami-m, One-Sided Gaussian, and mixtures of these common fading models. In addition, due to the duality of the analysis of secrecy capacity and co-channel interference (CCI), the results presented here will have immediate applicability in the analysis of outage probability in wireless systems affected by CCI and background noise (BN). To demonstrate the efficacy of the novel formulations proposed here, we use the derived equations to provide a useful insight into the probability of SPSC and SOPL for a range of emerging wireless applications, such as cellular device-to-device, peer-to-peer, vehicle-to-vehicle, and body centric communications using data obtained from real channel measurements.

Asymptotic preserving and time diminishing schemes for rarefied gas dynamic

In this work, we introduce a new class of numerical schemes for rarefied gas dynamic problems described by collisional kinetic equations. The idea consists in reformulating the problem using a micro-macro decomposition and successively in solving the microscopic part by using asymptotic preserving Monte Carlo methods. We consider two types of decompositions, the first leading to the Euler system of gas dynamics while the second to the Navier-Stokes equations for the macroscopic part. In addition, the particle method which solves the microscopic part is designed in such a way that the global scheme becomes computationally less expensive as the solution approaches the equilibrium state as opposite to standard methods for kinetic equations which computational cost increases with the number of interactions. At the same time, the statistical error due to the particle part of the solution decreases as the system approach the equilibrium state. This causes the method to degenerate to the sole solution of the macroscopic hydrodynamic equations (Euler or Navier-Stokes) in the limit of infinite number of collisions. In a last part, we will show the behaviors of this new approach in comparisons to standard Monte Carlo techniques for solving the kinetic equation by testing it on different problems which typically arise in rarefied gas dynamic simulations.