Essays on European economic and monetary integration

This thesis focuses on two aspects of European economic integration: exchange rate stabilization between non-euro Countries and the Euro Area, and real and nominal convergence of Central and Eastern European Countries. Each Chapter covers these aspects from both a theoretical and empirical perspective. Chapter 1 investigates whether the introduction of the euro was accompanied by a shift in the de facto exchange rate policy of European countries outside the euro area, using methods recently developed by the literature to detect "Fear of Floating" episodes. I find that European Inflation Targeters have tried to stabilize the euro exchange rate, after its introduction; fixed exchange rate arrangements, instead, apart from official policy changes, remained stable. Finally, the euro seems to have gained a relevant role as a reference currency even outside Europe. Chapter 2 proposes an approach to estimate Central Bank preferences starting from the Central Bank's optimization problem within a small open economy, using Sweden as a case study, to find whether stabilization of the exchange rate played a role in the Monetary Policy rule of the Riksbank. The results show that it did not influence interest rate setting; exchange rate stabilization probably occurred as a result of increased economic integration and business cycle convergence. Chapter 3 studies the interactions between wages in the public sector, the traded private sector and the closed sector in ten EU Transition Countries. The theoretical literature on wage spillovers suggests that the traded sector should be the leader in wage setting, with non-traded sectors wages adjusting. We show that large heterogeneity across countries is present, and sheltered and public sector wages are often leaders in wage determination. This result is relevant from a policy perspective since wage spillovers, leading to costs growing faster than productivity, may affect the international cost competitiveness of the traded sector.

Untersuchung zur Bestimmung quantitativer Parameter der Lungenventilation mittels CT und MRT

Die zuverlässige Berechnung von quantitativen Parametern der Lungenventilation ist für ein Verständnis des Verhaltens der Lunge und insbesondere für die Diagnostik von Lungenerkrankungen von großer Bedeutung. Nur durch quantitative Parameter sind verlässliche und reproduzierbare diagnostische Aussagen über den Gesundheitszustand der Lunge möglich. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurden neue quantitative Verfahren zur Erfassung der Lungenventilation basierend auf der dynamischen Computer- (CT) und Magnetresonanztomographie (MRT) entwickelt. Im ersten Teil dieser Arbeit wurde die Frage untersucht, ob das Aufblähen der Lunge in gesunden Schweinelungen und Lungen mit Akutem Lungenversagen (ARDS) durch einzelne, diskrete Zeitkonstanten beschrieben werden kann, oder ob kontinuierliche Verteilungen von Zeitkonstanten die Realität besser beschreiben. Hierzu wurden Serien dynamischer CT-Aufnahmen während definierter Beatmungsmanöver (Drucksprünge) aufgenommen und anschließend aus den Messdaten mittels inverser Laplace-Transformation die zugehörigen Verteilungen der Zeitkonstanten berechnet. Um die Qualität der Ergebnisse zu analysieren, wurde der Algorithmus im Rahmen von Simulationsrechnungen systematisch untersucht und anschließend in-vivo an gesunden und ARDS-Schweinelungen eingesetzt. Während in den gesunden Lungen mono- und biexponentielle Verteilungen bestimmt wurden, waren in den ARDS-Lungen Verteilungen um zwei dominante Zeitkonstanten notwendig, um die gemessenen Daten auf der Basis des verwendeten Modells verlässlich zu beschreiben. Es wurden sowohl diskrete als auch kontinuierliche Verteilungen gefunden. Die CT liefert Informationen über das solide Lungengewebe, während die MRT von hyperpolarisiertem 3He in der Lage ist, direkt das eingeatmete Gas abzubilden. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit wurde zeitlich hochaufgelöst das Einströmen eines 3He-Bolus in die Lunge erfasst. Über eine Entfaltungsanalyse wurde anschließend das Einströmverhalten unter Idealbedingungen (unendlich kurzer 3He-Bolus), also die Gewebeantwortfunktion, berechnet und so eine Messtechnik-unabhängige Erfassung des Einströmens von 3He in die Lunge ermöglicht. Zentrale Fragestellung war hier, wie schnell das Gas in die Lunge einströmt. Im Rahmen von Simulationsrechnungen wurde das Verhalten eines Entfaltungsalgorithmus (basierend auf B-Spline Repräsentationen) systematisch analysiert. Zusätzlich wurde ein iteratives Entfaltungsverfahren eingesetzt. Aus zeitlich hochaufgelösten Messungen (7ms) an einer gesunden und einer ARDS-Schweinelunge konnte erstmals nachgewiesen werden, dass das Einströmen in-vivo in weniger als 0,1s geschieht. Die Ergebnisse zeigen Zeitkonstanten im Bereich von 4ms–50ms, wobei zwischen der gesunden Lungen und der ARDS-Lunge deutliche Unterschiede beobachtet wurden. Zusammenfassend ermöglichen daher die in dieser Arbeit vorgestellten Algorithmen eine objektivere Bestimmung quantitativer Parameter der Lungenventilation. Dies ist für die eindeutige Beschreibung ventilatorischer Vorgänge in der Lunge und somit für die Lungendiagnostik unerlässlich. Damit stehen quantitative Methoden für die Lungenfunktionsdiagnostik zur Verfügung, deren diagnostische Relevanz im Rahmen wissenschaftlicher und klinischer Studien untersucht werden kann.

Dispersive wave solutions of the klein-gordon equation in cosmology

L'equazione di Klein-Gordon descrive una ampia varietà di fenomeni fisici come la propagazione delle onde in Meccanica dei Continui ed il comportamento delle particelle spinless in Meccanica Quantistica Relativistica. Recentemente, la forma dissipativa di questa equazione si è rivelata essere una legge di evoluzione fondamentale in alcuni modelli cosmologici, in particolare nell'ambito dei cosiddetti modelli di k-inflazione in presenza di campi tachionici. L'obiettivo di questo lavoro consiste nell'analizzare gli effetti del parametro dissipativo sulla dispersione nelle soluzioni dell'equazione d'onda. Saranno inoltre studiati alcuni tipici problemi al contorno di particolare interesse cosmologico per mezzo di grafici corrispondenti alle soluzioni fondamentali (Funzioni di Green).

The role of B cells during acute and latent infections with murine cytomegalovirus and Leishmania major

This thesis focuses on the role of B cells in mCMV and Leishmania major infection. B cells are an essential component of the adaptive immune system and play a key role in the humoral immune response. In mCMV infection we analyzed the influence of B cells on the virus-specific CD8 T cell response, in detail the role of B cells as IL-10 secreting cells, as source of immunoglobulin (Ig) and as antigen presenting cells. In Leishmania major infection we investigated the role of Ig in Th1 and Th2 directed disease.rnWe found in mCMV infection that the B cell secreted IL-10 suppresses effectively the acute virus-specific CD8 T cell response, while the IL-10 secreted by dendritic cell has no obvious effect. Ig has no effect in the acute virus-specific CD8 T cell response, but in memory response Ig is essential. If Ig is missing the CD8 T cell population remains high in memory response 135 days post infection. The complete absence of B cells dramatically reduces the acute virus-specific CD8 T cell response, while B cell reconstitution just partially rescues this dramatic reduction. A comparison of this reduction in a B cell free organism to an organism with depleted dendritic cells gave a similar result. To exclude a malfunction of the CD8 T cells in the B cell deficient mice, the decreased virus-specific CD8 T cell population was confirmed in a B cell depletion model. Further, bone marrow chimeras with a B cell compartment deficient for CD40-/- showed a decrease of the virus-specific response and an involvement of CD40 on B cells. Taken together these results suggest a role for B cells in antigen presentation during mCMV infection.rnFurther we took advantage of the altered mCMV specific CD8 T cell memory response in mice without Ig to investigate the memory inflation of CD8 T cells specific for distinct mCMV specifc peptides. Using a SIINFEKL-presenting virus system, we were able to shorten the time until the memory inflation occurs and show that direct presentation stimulates the memory inflation. rnIn Leishmania major infection, Ig of Th2 balanced BALB/c mice has a central role in preventing a systemic infection, although the ear lesions are smaller in IgMi mice without specific Ig. Here the parasite loads of ears and spleen are elevated, and an IMS-reconstitution does not affect the parasite load. In contrast in Th1 balanced C57BL/6 mice, reconstitution of IgMi mice with serum of either untreated or immunized mice decreased the parasite load of spleen and ear, further IMS treatment reduces the size of the spleen and the cytokine-levels of IL-10, IL-4, IL-2 and IFN-γ to a level comparable to wt mice. rn

Estimation of Quasi-Rational DSGE Models

Small-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium have been treated as the benchmark of much of the monetary policy literature, given their ability to explain the impact of monetary policy on output, inflation and financial markets. One cause of the empirical failure of New Keynesian models is partially due to the Rational Expectations (RE) paradigm, which entails a tight structure on the dynamics of the system. Under this hypothesis, the agents are assumed to know the data genereting process. In this paper, we propose the econometric analysis of New Keynesian DSGE models under an alternative expectations generating paradigm, which can be regarded as an intermediate position between rational expectations and learning, nameley an adapted version of the "Quasi-Rational" Expectatations (QRE) hypothesis. Given the agents' statistical model, we build a pseudo-structural form from the baseline system of Euler equations, imposing that the length of the reduced form is the same as in the `best' statistical model.

Charakterisierung der Latenz des murinen Cytomegalovirus in vivo

Die primäre, produktive Cytomegalovirus (CMV)-Infektion wird im immunkompetenten Patienten effizient durch antivirale CD8+ T-Zellen kontrolliert. Das virale Genom besitzt jedoch die Fähigkeit, in einem nicht replikativen, Latenz genannten Zustand, in gewissen Zelltypen zu persistieren, ohne dass infektiöse Nachkommenviren produziert werden. Die molekularen Mechanismen, welche der Etablierung und Aufrechterhaltung der Latenz zugrundeliegen, sind noch weitestgehend unbekannt. Es gibt Hinweise darauf, dass zelluläre Verteidigungsmechanismen die Zirkularisierung und Chromatinisierung viraler Genome hervorrufen und dadurch die virale Genexpression größtenteils verhindert wird (Marks & Spector, 1984; Reeves et al., 2006).rnAllerdings liegen die Genome nicht in einem komplett inaktiven Zustand vor. Vielmehr konnte für das murine CMV (mCMV) bereits die sporadische Transkription der Gene ie1 und ie2 während der Latenz nachgewiesen werden (Kurz et al., 1999; Grzimek et al., 2001).rnIn der vorliegenden Arbeit wurde zum ersten Mal eine umfassende in vivo Latenz-Analyse zur Charakterisierung der viralen Transkription in einer Kinetik anhand der alle drei kinetischen Klassen repräsentierenden Transkripte IE1, IE3, E1, m164, M105 und M86 vorgenommen.rnNach Latenz-Etablierung, verifiziert durch Abwesenheit von infektiösem Virus, konnten alle getesteten Transkripte in der Lunge quantifiziert werden. Interessanterweise war die transkriptionelle Aktivität zu keinem Analyse-Zeitpunkt mit der klassischen IE-E-L-Kinetik der produktiven Infektion kompatibel. Stattdessen lag eine stochastische Transkript-Expression vor, deren Aktivität mit voranschreitender Zeit immer weiter abnahm.rnWährend der Latenz exprimierte Transkripte, die für antigene Peptide kodieren, können infizierte Zellen für das Immunsystem sichtbar machen, was zu einer fortwährenden Restimulation des memory T-Zell-pools führen würde. Durch zeitgleiche Analyse der Transkript-Expression, sowie der Frequenzen Epitop-spezifischer CD8+ T-Zellen während der Latenz (IE1, m164, M105), wurde eine möglicher Zusammenhang zwischen der transkriptionellen Aktivität und der Expansion des memory T-Zell-pools untersucht. Die weitere Charakterisierung von Subpopulationen der Epitop-spezifischen CD8+ T-Zellen identifizierte die SLECs (short-lived-effector cells; CD127low CD62Llow KLRG1high) als die dominante Population in Lunge und Milz während der mCMV-Latenz.rnIn einem weiteren Teil der Arbeit sollte untersucht werden, ob IE-Genexpression zur Etablierung von Latenz notwendig ist. Mit Hilfe der Rekombinanten mCMV-Δie2-DTR, die die Gensequenz des Diphtherietoxin-Rezeptors (DTR) anstelle des Gens ie2 trägt, konnten infizierte, DTR exprimierende Zellen durch eine DT-Applikation konditional depletiert werden.rnIm latent infizierbaren Zelltyp der Leber, den LSECs (liver sinusoidal endothelial cells) wurde die virale Load durch 90-stündige DT–Applikation nach mCMV-Δie2-DTR Infektion auf das Level latent infizierter LSECs reduziert. Diese Daten sprechen für die Hypothese eines von Beginn an inaktiven Genoms, das keine IE-Genexpression zur Latenz-Etablierung benötigt. Zusätzlich stellt dieser Ansatz ein neues Tier-Modell zur Latenz-Etablierung dar. Verringerte Wartezeiten bis zur vollständigen Latenz-Etablierung, im Vergleich zum bisherigen Knochenmarktransplantations-Modell, könnten anfallende Tierhaltungskosten erheblich reduzieren und das Voranschreiten der Forschung beschleunigen.

String inflationary models with non-monotonic slow-roll and detectable tensor modes

The first chapter of this work has the aim to provide a brief overview of the history of our Universe, in the context of string theory and considering inflation as its possible application to cosmological problems. We then discuss type IIB string compactifications, introducing the study of the inflaton, a scalar field candidated to describe the inflation theory. The Large Volume Scenario (LVS) is studied in the second chapter paying particular attention to the stabilisation of the Kähler moduli which are four-dimensional gravitationally coupled scalar fields which parameterise the size of the extra dimensions. Moduli stabilisation is the process through which these particles acquire a mass and can become promising inflaton candidates. The third chapter is devoted to the study of Fibre Inflation which is an interesting inflationary model derived within the context of LVS compactifications. The fourth chapter tries to extend the zone of slow-roll of the scalar potential by taking larger values of the field φ. Everything is done with the purpose of studying in detail deviations of the cosmological observables, which can better reproduce current experimental data. Finally, we present a slight modification of Fibre Inflation based on a different compactification manifold. This new model produces larger tensor modes with a spectral index in good agreement with the date released in February 2015 by the Planck satellite.

Effects of lung recruitment maneuvers on splanchnic organ perfusion during endotoxin-induced pulmonary arterial hypertension

Lung recruitment maneuvers (RMs), used to reopen atelectatic lung units and to improve oxygenation during mechanical ventilation, may result in hemodynamic impairment. We hypothesize that pulmonary arterial hypertension aggravates the consequences of RMs in the splanchnic circulation. Twelve anesthetized pigs underwent laparotomy and prolonged postoperative ventilation. Systemic, regional, and organ blood flows were monitored. After 6 h (= baseline), a recruitment maneuver was performed with sustained inflation of the lungs. Thereafter, the pigs were randomly assigned to group C (control, n = 6) or group E with endotoxin-induced pulmonary arterial hypertension (n = 6). Endotoxemia resulted in a normotensive and hyperdynamic state and a deterioration of the oxygenation index by 33%. The RM was then repeated in both groups. Pulmonary artery pressure increased during lipopolysaccharide infusion from 17 ± 2 mmHg (mean ± SD) to 31 ± 10 mmHg and remained unchanged in controls (P < 0.05). During endotoxemia, RM decreased aortic pulse pressure from 37 ± 14 mmHg to 27 ± 13 mmHg (mean ± SD, P = 0.024). The blood flows of the renal artery, hepatic artery, celiac trunk, superior mesenteric artery, and portal vein decreased to 71% ± 21%, 69% ± 20%, 76% ± 16%, 79% ± 18%, and 81% ± 12%, respectively, of baseline flows before RM (P < 0.05 all). Organ perfusion of kidney cortex, kidney medulla, liver, and jejunal mucosa in group E decreased to 65% ± 19%, 77% ± 13%, 66% ± 26%, and 71% ± 12%, respectively, of baseline flows (P < 0.05 all). The corresponding recovery to at least 90% of baseline regional blood flow and organ perfusion lasted 1 to 5 min. Importantly, the decreases in regional blood flows and organ perfusion and the time to recovery of these flows did not differ from the controls. In conclusion, lipopolysaccharide-induced pulmonary arterial hypertension does not aggravate the RM-induced significant but short-lasting decreases in systemic, regional, and organ blood flows.

Biomechanical model of human cornea based on stromal microstructure

The optical characteristics of the human cornea depends on the mechanical balance between the intra-ocular pressure and intrinsic tissue stiffness. A wide range of ophthalmic surgical procedures alter corneal biomechanics to induce local or global curvature changes for the correction of visual acuity. Due to the large number of surgical interventions performed every day, a deeper understanding of corneal biomechanics is needed to improve the safety of these procedures and medical devices. The aim of this study is to propose a biomechanical model of the human cornea, based on stromal microstructure. The constitutive mechanical law includes collagen fiber distribution based on X-ray scattering analysis, collagen cross-linking, and fiber uncrimping. Our results showed that the proposed model reproduced inflation and extensiometry experimental data [Elsheikh et al., Curr. Eye Res., 2007; Elsheikh et al., Exp. Eye Res., 2008] successfully. The mechanical properties obtained for different age groups demonstrated an increase in collagen cross-linking for older specimens. In future work such a model could be used to simulate non-symmetric interventions, and provide better surgical planning.

Numerical model of the human cornea based on stromal microstructure: identification of mechanical properties for two age groups

The optical quality of the human eye mainly depends on the refractive performance of the cornea. The shape of the cornea is a mechanical balance between intraocular pressure and tissue intrinsic stiffness. Several surgical procedures in ophthalmology alter the biomechanics of the cornea to provoke local or global curvature changes for vision correction. Legitimated by the large number of surgical interventions performed every day, the demand for a deeper understanding of corneal biomechanics is rising to improve the safety of procedures and medical devices. The aim of our work is to propose a numerical model of corneal biomechanics, based on the stromal microstructure. Our novel anisotropic constitutive material law features a probabilistic weighting approach to model collagen fiber distribution as observed on human cornea by Xray scattering analysis (Aghamohammadzadeh et. al., Structure, February 2004). Furthermore, collagen cross-linking was explicitly included in the strain energy function. Results showed that the proposed model is able to successfully reproduce both inflation and extensiometry experimental data (Elsheikh et. al., Curr Eye Res, 2007; Elsheikh et. al., Exp Eye Res, May 2008). In addition, the mechanical properties calculated for patients of different age groups (Group A: 65-79 years; Group B: 80-95 years) demonstrate an increased collagen cross-linking, and a decrease in collagen fiber elasticity from younger to older specimen. These findings correspond to what is known about maturing fibrous biological tissue. Since the presented model can handle different loading situations and includes the anisotropic distribution of collagen fibers, it has the potential to simulate clinical procedures involving nonsymmetrical tissue interventions. In the future, such mechanical model can be used to improve surgical planning and the design of next generation ophthalmic devices.

Safety of diagnostic balloon occlusion in normal coronary arteries

Diagnostic coronary balloon occlusion (CBO) is mandatory for collateral function assessment, during angioscopy and optical coherence imaging, and when using certain coronary protection devices against emboli. Thus far, the safety of diagnostic CBO regarding procedural and long-term complications in normal coronary arteries has not been studied. In 316 patients, diagnostic CBO was performed for collateral function measurement in 426 angiographically normal vessels. The angioplasty balloon was inflated for 60 to 120 seconds using inflation pressures of 1 to 3 atm, followed by control angiography during and after CBO. Patients were divided into groups with entirely normal (n = 133) and partially normal (n = 183) vessels. Primary end points were procedural and long-term complications. De novo stenosis development was assessed by quantitative coronary angiography in 35% of the patients. Secondary end points were cardiac events at 5 years of follow-up. Procedural complications occurred in 1 patient (0.2%). In 150 repeat angiographic procedures in 92 patients (follow-up duration 10 +/- 15 months), quantitative coronary angiography revealed no difference in percentage diameter narrowing between baseline and follow-up (4.1% vs 3.9%, p = 0.69). During follow-up periods of 14 and 72 months, respectively, a new stenotic lesion was detected in 1 patient in each group (1.3%). Major cardiac events and percutaneous coronary intervention for stable angina were less frequent in the group with entirely normal than with partially normal vessels (0.8% vs 5.5%, p = 0.02, and 0.8% vs 18%, p <0.0001). In conclusion, low-inflation pressure diagnostic CBO in angiographically normal coronary arteries bears a minimal risk for procedural and long-term complications and can therefore be regarded as a safe procedure.

Cause or effect of arteriogenesis: compositional alterations of microparticles from CAD patients undergoing external counterpulsation therapy

Recently, a clinical study on patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) showed that external counterpulsation therapy (ECP) at high (300 mmHg) but not at low inflation pressure (80 mmHg) promoted coronary collateral growth, most likely due to shear stress-induced arteriogenesis. The exact molecular mechanisms behind shear stress-induced arteriogenesis are still obscure. We therefore characterized plasma levels of circulating microparticles (MPs) from these CAD patients because of their ambivalent nature as a known cardiovascular risk factor and as a promoter of neovascularization in the case of platelet-derived MPs. MPs positive for Annexin V and CD31CD41 were increased, albeit statistically significant (P<0.05, vs. baseline) only in patients receiving high inflation pressure ECP as determined by flow cytometry. MPs positive for CD62E, CD146, and CD14 were unaffected. In high, but not in low, inflation pressure treatment, change of CD31CD41 was inversely correlated to the change in collateral flow index (CFI), a measure for collateral growth. MPs from the high inflation pressure group had a more sustained pro-angiogenic effect than the ones from the low inflation pressure group, with the exception of one patient showing also an increased CFI after treatment. A total of 1005 proteins were identified by a label-free proteomics approach from MPs of three patients of each group applying stringent acceptance criteria. Based on semi-quantitative protein abundance measurements, MPs after ECP therapy contained more cellular proteins and increased CD31, corroborating the increase in MPs. Furthermore, we show that MP-associated factors of the innate immune system were decreased, many membrane-associated signaling proteins, and the known arteriogenesis stimulating protein transforming growth factor beta-1 were increased after ECP therapy. In conclusion, our data show that ECP therapy increases platelet-derived MPs in patients with CAD and that the change in protein cargo of MPs is likely in favor of a pro angiogenic/arteriogenic property.

Monument Preservation in Central Europe

Recent decades have seen both what has been referred to as an "inflation of historical monuments" and an acceleration of the process of "monumentification" affecting buildings of relatively recent date. In order to gain a better understanding of this, Kovacs looked at the experience in countries of Central Europe (Romania, Hungary, Slovenia, the Czech Lands, Slovakia), discovering a number of similarities as well as differences in detail. More important, however, was the discovery of the much wider importance of this phenomenon as a whole, which is particularly visible in this part of Europe, where "European" theory and practice of monument preservation are combined with progressivist demolitionism and traditional "natural" attitudes towards the built environment. Kovacs found that monument preservation has not only become a major occupation within building activity seen as a matter of anthropology, but also seems to be the determining feature of the contemporary cultural attitude. The scale of preservation activity has long since reached the level of urban design as an essential criterion for matters of future development, making it necessary to extend the conclusions of theoretical research down to broader generalities of the building domain. Kovacs then looked at the specific features of the countries concerned, including the survival of traditional building techniques in Romania, and the wide variety of preservationist policies in use.

Formation of Exchange Rates on the Russian Market: Dynamics and Modelling

Galina Kovaleva. The Formation of the Exchange Rate on the Russian Market: Dynamics and Modelling. The Russian financial market is fast becoming one of the major sectors of the Russian economy. Assets have been increasing steadily, while new market segments and new financial market instruments have emerged. Kovaleva attempted to isolate the factors influencing exchange rates, determine patterns in the dynamic changes to the rouble/dollar exchange rate, construct models of the processes, and on the basis of these activities make forecasts. She studied the significance of economic indicators influencing the rouble/dollar exchange rate at different times, and developed multi-factor econometric models. In order to reveal the inner structure of the financial indicators and to work out ex-post forecasts for different time intervals, she carried out a series of calculations with the aim of constructing trend-cyclical (TC) and harmonic models, and Box and Jenkins models. She found that: 1. The Russian financial market is dependant on the rouble/dollar exchange rate. Its dynamics are formed under the influence of the short-term state treasury notes and government bonds markets, interbank loans, the rouble/DM exchange rate, the inflation rate, and the DM/dollar exchange rate. The exchange rate is influenced by sales on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange and the mechanism of those sales. 2. The TC model makes it possible to conduct an in-depth study of the structure of the processes and to make forecasts of the dynamic changes to currency indicators. 3. The Russian market is increasingly influenced by the world currency market and its prospects are of crucial interest for the world financial community.

Poverty in Slovenia: A Conseqence of Economic Transition

Slovenia is considered to be one of the most successful Central and Eastern European countries undergoing the process of transition. It has a high GDP per capita (the highest in the Visegrad group) amounting to about 7200 US dollars (at the exchange rates pertaining during Ms. Stropnik's research). In 1994, a low rate of inflation, a low level of public debt and almost balanced public finances, were all positive elements. However, there is a darker side, for instance the dramatic increase in unemployment and (somewhat less dramatic) fall in production during the transition period. This analysis aimed to provide insights into what is actually happening at the household level, since households are the ultimate bearers of macroeconomic and social change. The final output totalled 166 pages in English and Slovenian, available also on disc. The income concept used by Ms. Stropnik is that of the disposable (monetary) household income, i.e. the cash income of all household members - including social security transfers and family benefits, and the net sum of taxes and social security contributions - plus the equivalent of domestic production, used in the household. Non-monetary income sources, such as household own production, benefits in kind, subsidies for goods and services, and fringe benefits, were not taken into account. The concept of relative and objective poverty was followed. Poverty means having less than others in society, it is a state of relative deprivation. Objective aspects of the situation, e.g. command over resources (i.e. the household income) and the relative position of the household in the income distribution, determine who is poor and who is not. Changes in household composition - an increase in the number of pensioners, unemployed and self-employed, concomitant with a large decrease in the number of employees - obviously played a part in the changing structure of household income sources during this period. The overall decrease in the share of wages and salaries from primary employment in 1993 is to be observed in all income deciles. On the other hand, the importance of salaries gained from secondary employment has increased in all deciles. The lower seven deciles experienced a sharp rise in the share of social benefits in the period 1988-1993, mostly because of the increase in the number of persons entitled to claim unemployment benefits. In Slovenia, income inequality has increased considerably during the 1988-1993 period. To make matters worse, the large increase in income inequality occurred in a period of falling real incomes. In 1983 the bottom decile disposed of 3.8 percent and the top decile disposed of 23.4 percent of total monetary income in Slovenia, whereas by 1993 the same statistics revealed 3.1 percent and 18.9 percent respectively. Unemployment greatly increases the risk of living in poverty. In 1993, 35 per cent of all unemployed persons in Slovenia were living in the lowest income quintile. Ms. Stropnik found certain features that were specific to Slovenia and not shared by most countries in transition. For example, the relative income position of pensioners has improved. Retirement did not increase the risk of poverty in 1993 as much as it did in 1983 and 1988. Also, it appears that children have not been particularly hard-hit by the transition upheavals. The incidence of poverty amongst children has not increased in the period 1983-1993. Children were also fairly evenly distributed across income quintiles. In 1983, 11.8 percent of households with children aged 18 or less were poor. In 1993, this figure was 8.4 per cent. On the other hand, poor households with children were, in comparison with other households of the same type, poorer in 1993 than in 1983. Ms. Stropnik also analysed the impact of social transfers. Her conclusion was that the level of social transfers prevented them from being successful in alleviating poverty. Family policy transfers (child allowances, child tax allowances, subsidised child care) did, however, contribute to the lowering of income inequality between families with and without children, and amongst families with different numbers of children. Ms. Stropnik is determined that the results of her research be used in the creation of social policy aimed at helping the poor. She quotes Piachaud approvingly: "If the term 'poverty' carries with it the implication and moral imperative that something should be done about it, then the study of poverty is only ultimately justifiable if it influences individual and social attitudes and actions."