Towards Rapid Environmental Assessment and Coastal Forecasting in the Northern Adriatic Sea

A new Coastal Rapid Environmental Assessment (CREA) strategy has been developed and successfully applied to the Northern Adriatic Sea. CREA strategy exploits the recent advent of operational oceanography to establish a CREA system based on an operational regional forecasting system and coastal monitoring networks of opportunity. The methodology wishes to initialize a coastal high resolution model, nested within the regional forecasting system, blending the large scale parent model fields with the available coastal observations to generate the requisite field estimates. CREA modeling system consists of a high resolution, O(800m), Adriatic SHELF model (ASHELF) implemented into the Northern Adriatic basin and nested within the Adriatic Forecasting System (AFS) (Oddo et al. 2006). The observational system is composed by the coastal networks established in the framework of ADRICOSM (ADRiatic sea integrated COastal areaS and river basin Managment system) Pilot Project. An assimilation technique exerts a correction of the initial field provided by AFS on the basis of the available observations. The blending of the two data sets has been carried out through a multi-scale optimal interpolation technique developed by Mariano and Brown (1992). Two CREA weekly exercises have been conducted: the first, at the beginning of May (spring experiment); the second in middle August (summer experiment). The weeks have been chosen looking at the availability of all coastal observations in the initialization day and one week later to validate model results, verifying our predictive skills. ASHELF spin up time has been investigated too, through a dedicated experiment, in order to obtain the maximum forecast accuracy within a minimum time. Energetic evaluations show that for the Northern Adriatic Sea and for the forcing applied, a spin-up period of one week allows ASHELF to generate new circulation features enabled by the increased resolution and its total kinetic energy to establish a new dynamical balance. CREA results, evaluated by mean of standard statistics between ASHELF and coastal CTDs, show improvement deriving from the initialization technique and a good model performance in the coastal areas of the Northern Adriatic basin, characterized by a shallow and wide continental shelf subject to substantial freshwater influence from rivers. Results demonstrate the feasibility of our CREA strategy to support coastal zone management and wish an additional establishment of operational coastal monitoring activities to advance it.

Quantitative evaluation of household nutrition patterns: an econometric assessment of the UK 5-a-day impact on fruit and vegetable consumption

The present work provides an ex-post assessment of the UK 5-a-day information campaign where the positive effects of information on consumption levels are disentangled from the potentially conflicting price dynamics. A model-based estimate of the counterfactual (no-intervention) scenario is computed using data from the Expenditure and Food Survey between 2002 and 2006. For this purpose fruit and vegetable demand is modelled employing Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) specification with demographic effects and controlling for potential endogeneity of prices and total food expenditure.

Changes in tumor stiffness for early prediction of tumor response to sorafenib: a proof-of-concept study with elastosonography in an animal model of Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC)

Background and aims: Sorafenib is the reference therapy for advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC). No method exists to predict in the very early period subsequent individual response. Starting from the clinical experience in humans that subcutaneous metastases may rapidly change consistency under sorafenib and that elastosonography a new ultrasound based technique allows assessment of tissue stiffness, we investigated the role of elastonography in the very early prediction of tumor response to sorafenib in a HCC animal model. Methods: HCC (Huh7 cells) subcutaneous xenografting in mice was utilized. Mice were randomized to vehicle or treatment with sorafenib when tumor size was 5-10 mm. Elastosonography (Mylab 70XVG, Esaote, Genova, Italy) of the whole tumor mass on a sagittal plane with a 10 MHz linear transducer was performed at different time points from treatment start (day 0, +2, +4, +7 and +14) until mice were sacrified (day +14), with the operator blind to treatment. In order to overcome variability in absolute elasticity measurement when assessing changes over time, values were expressed in arbitrary units as relative stiffness of the tumor tissue in comparison to the stiffness of a standard reference stand-off pad lying on the skin over the tumor. Results: Sor-treated mice showed a smaller tumor size increase at day +14 in comparison to vehicle-treated (tumor volume increase +192.76% vs +747.56%, p=0.06). Among Sor-treated tumors, 6 mice showed a better response to treatment than the other 4 (increase in volume +177% vs +553%, p=0.011). At day +2, median tumor elasticity increased in Sor-treated group (+6.69%, range –30.17-+58.51%), while decreased in the vehicle group (-3.19%, range –53.32-+37.94%) leading to a significant difference in absolute values (p=0.034). From this time point onward, elasticity decreased in both groups, with similar speed over time, not being statistically different anymore. In Sor-treated mice all 6 best responders at day 14 showed an increase in elasticity at day +2 (ranging from +3.30% to +58.51%) in comparison to baseline, whereas 3 of the 4 poorer responders showed a decrease. Interestingly, these 3 tumours showed elasticity values higher than responder tumours at day 0. Conclusions: Elastosonography appears a promising non-invasive new technique for the early prediction of HCC tumor response to sorafenib. Indeed, we proved that responder tumours are characterized by an early increase in elasticity. The possibility to distinguish a priori between responders and non responders based on the higher elasticity of the latter needs to be validated in ad-hoc experiments as well as a confirmation of our results in humans is warranted.

From fall-risk assessment to fall detection: inertial sensors in the clinical routine and daily life

Falls are caused by complex interaction between multiple risk factors which may be modified by age, disease and environment. A variety of methods and tools for fall risk assessment have been proposed, but none of which is universally accepted. Existing tools are generally not capable of providing a quantitative predictive assessment of fall risk. The need for objective, cost-effective and clinically applicable methods would enable quantitative assessment of fall risk on a subject-specific basis. Tracking objectively falls risk could provide timely feedback about the effectiveness of administered interventions enabling intervention strategies to be modified or changed if found to be ineffective. Moreover, some of the fundamental factors leading to falls and what actually happens during a fall remain unclear. Objectively documented and measured falls are needed to improve knowledge of fall in order to develop more effective prevention strategies and prolong independent living. In the last decade, several research groups have developed sensor-based automatic or semi-automatic fall risk assessment tools using wearable inertial sensors. This approach may also serve to detect falls. At the moment, i) several fall-risk assessment studies based on inertial sensors, even if promising, lack of a biomechanical model-based approach which could provide accurate and more detailed measurements of interests (e.g., joint moments, forces) and ii) the number of published real-world fall data of older people in a real-world environment is minimal since most authors have used simulations with healthy volunteers as a surrogate for real-world falls. With these limitations in mind, this thesis aims i) to suggest a novel method for the kinematics and dynamics evaluation of functional motor tasks, often used in clinics for the fall-risk evaluation, through a body sensor network and a biomechanical approach and ii) to define the guidelines for a fall detection algorithm based on a real-world fall database availability.

Comparison between analytical and numerical methods for the assessment of masonry arch bridges: Case study of Clemente Bridge on Savio river

This research has focused on the study of the behavior and of the collapse of masonry arch bridges. The latest decades have seen an increasing interest in this structural type, that is still present and in use, despite the passage of time and the variation of the transport means. Several strategies have been developed during the time to simulate the response of this type of structures, although even today there is no generally accepted standard one for assessment of masonry arch bridges. The aim of this thesis is to compare the principal analytical and numerical methods existing in literature on case studies, trying to highlight values and weaknesses. The methods taken in exam are mainly three: i) the Thrust Line Analysis Method; ii) the Mechanism Method; iii) the Finite Element Methods. The Thrust Line Analysis Method and the Mechanism Method are analytical methods and derived from two of the fundamental theorems of the Plastic Analysis, while the Finite Element Method is a numerical method, that uses different strategies of discretization to analyze the structure. Every method is applied to the case study through computer-based representations, that allow a friendly-use application of the principles explained. A particular closed-form approach based on an elasto-plastic material model and developed by some Belgian researchers is also studied. To compare the three methods, two different case study have been analyzed: i) a generic masonry arch bridge with a single span; ii) a real masonry arch bridge, the Clemente Bridge, built on Savio River in Cesena. In the analyses performed, all the models are two-dimensional in order to have results comparable between the different methods taken in exam. The different methods have been compared with each other in terms of collapse load and of hinge positions.

Multidimensional Measures of Firm Competitiveness: a Model-Based Approach

The concept of competitiveness, for a long time considered as strictly connected to economic and financial performances, evolved, above all in recent years, toward new, wider interpretations disclosing its multidimensional nature. The shift to a multidimensional view of the phenomenon has excited an intense debate involving theoretical reflections on the features characterizing it, as well as methodological considerations on its assessment and measurement. The present research has a twofold objective: going in depth with the study of tangible and intangible aspect characterizing multidimensional competitive phenomena by assuming a micro-level point of view, and measuring competitiveness through a model-based approach. Specifically, we propose a non-parametric approach to Structural Equation Models techniques for the computation of multidimensional composite measures. Structural Equation Models tools will be used for the development of the empirical application on the italian case: a model based micro-level competitiveness indicator for the measurement of the phenomenon on a large sample of Italian small and medium enterprises will be constructed.

The challenges and the limitations in Life Cycle Impact Assessment for metal oxide nanoparticles, a case study on nano- TiO2

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a chain-oriented tool to evaluate the environment performance of products focussing on the entire life cycle of these products: from the extraction of resources, via manufacturing and use, to the final processing of the disposed products. Through all these stages consumption of resources and pollutant releases to air, water, soil are identified and quantified in Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) analysis. Subsequently to the LCI phase follows the Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) phase; that has the purpose to convert resource consumptions and pollutant releases in environmental impacts. The LCIA aims to model and to evaluate environmental issues, called impact categories. Several reports emphasises the importance of LCA in the field of ENMs. The ENMs offer enormous potential for the development of new products and application. There are however unanswered questions about the impacts of ENMs on human health and the environment. In the last decade the increasing production, use and consumption of nanoproducts, with a consequent release into the environment, has accentuated the obligation to ensure that potential risks are adequately understood to protect both human health and environment. Due to its holistic and comprehensive assessment, LCA is an essential tool evaluate, understand and manage the environmental and health effects of nanotechnology. The evaluation of health and environmental impacts of nanotechnologies, throughout the whole of their life-cycle by using LCA methodology. This is due to the lack of knowledge in relation to risk assessment. In fact, to date, the knowledge on human and environmental exposure to nanomaterials, such ENPs is limited. This bottleneck is reflected into LCA where characterisation models and consequently characterisation factors for ENPs are missed. The PhD project aims to assess limitations and challenges of the freshwater aquatic ecotoxicity potential evaluation in LCIA phase for ENPs and in particular nanoparticles as n-TiO2.

Nature and relevance of inherited blueprints on business models choices and innovation: an assessment

One important metaphor, referred to biological theories, used to investigate on organizational and business strategy issues is the metaphor about heredity; an area requiring further investigation is the extent to which the characteristics of blueprints inherited from the parent, helps in explaining subsequent development of the spawned ventures. In order to shed a light on the tension between inherited patterns and the new trajectory that may characterize spawned ventures’ development we propose a model aimed at investigating which blueprints elements might exert an effect on business model design choices and to which extent their persistence (or abandonment) determines subsequent business model innovation. Under the assumption that academic and corporate institutions transmit different genes to their spin-offs, we hence expect to have heterogeneity in elements that affect business model design choices and its subsequent evolution. This is the reason why we carry on a twofold analysis in the biotech (meta)industry: under a multiple-case research design, business model and especially its fundamental design elements and themes scholars individuated to decompose the construct, have been thoroughly analysed. Our purpose is to isolate the dimensions of business model that may have been the object of legacy and the ones along which an experimentation and learning process is more likely to happen, bearing in mind that differences between academic and corporate might not be that evident as expected, especially considering that business model innovation may occur.

Model reduction techniques in flexible multibody dynamics with application to engine cranktrain simulation

The development of a multibody model of a motorbike engine cranktrain is presented in this work, with an emphasis on flexible component model reduction. A modelling methodology based upon the adoption of non-ideal joints at interface locations, and the inclusion of component flexibility, is developed: both are necessary tasks if one wants to capture dynamic effects which arise in lightweight, high-speed applications. With regard to the first topic, both a ball bearing model and a journal bearing model are implemented, in order to properly capture the dynamic effects of the main connections in the system: angular contact ball bearings are modelled according to a five-DOF nonlinear scheme in order to grasp the crankshaft main bearings behaviour, while an impedance-based hydrodynamic bearing model is implemented providing an enhanced operation prediction at the conrod big end locations. Concerning the second matter, flexible models of the crankshaft and the connecting rod are produced. The well-established Craig-Bampton reduction technique is adopted as a general framework to obtain reduced model representations which are suitable for the subsequent multibody analyses. A particular component mode selection procedure is implemented, based on the concept of Effective Interface Mass, allowing an assessment of the accuracy of the reduced models prior to the nonlinear simulation phase. In addition, a procedure to alleviate the effects of modal truncation, based on the Modal Truncation Augmentation approach, is developed. In order to assess the performances of the proposed modal reduction schemes, numerical tests are performed onto the crankshaft and the conrod models in both frequency and modal domains. A multibody model of the cranktrain is eventually assembled and simulated using a commercial software. Numerical results are presented, demonstrating the effectiveness of the implemented flexible model reduction techniques. The advantages over the conventional frequency-based truncation approach are discussed.

Building Information Modelling (BIM) Effectiveness in Performing Life Cycle Assessment of Building

The scope of this project is to study the effectiveness of building information modelling (BIM) in performing life cycle assessment in a building. For the purposes of the study will be used “Revit” which is a BIM software and Tally which is an LCA tool integrated in Revit. The project is divided in six chapters. The first chapter consists of a theoretical introduction into building information modelling and its connection to life cycle assessment. The second chapter describes the characteristics of building information modelling (BIM). In addition, a comparison has been made with the traditional architectural, engineering and construction business model and the benefits to shift into BIM. In the third chapter it will be a review of the most well-known and available BIM software in the market. In chapter four life cycle assessment (LCA) will be described in general and later on specifically for the purpose of the case study that will be used in the following chapter. Moreover, the tools that are available to perform an LCA will be reviewed. Chapter five will present the case study that consists of a model in a BIM software (Revit) and the LCA performed by Tally, an LCA tool integrated into Revit. In the last chapter will be a discussion of the results that were obtained, the limitation and the possible future improvement in performing life cycle assessment (LCA) in a BIM model.

Molekulare Ursachen und therapeutische Intervention bei der Alzheimer-Demenz

Ein charakteristisches, neuropathologisches Merkmal der Alzheimer-Demenz (AD), der am häufigsten vorkommenden Demenz-Form des Menschen, ist das Auftreten von senilen Plaques im Gehirn der Patienten. Hierbei stellt das neurotoxische A-beta Peptid den Hauptbestandteil dieser Ablagerungen dar. Einen Beitrag zu der pathologisch erhöhten A-beta Generierung liefert das verschobene Expressionsgleichgewicht der um APP-konkurrierenden Proteasen BACE-1 und ADAM10 zu Gunsten der beta-Sekretase BACE-1. In der vorliegenden Dissertation sollten molekulare Mechanismen identifiziert werden, die zu einem pathologisch veränderten Gleichgewicht der APP-Spaltung und somit zum Entstehen und Fortschritt der AD beitragen. Des Weiteren sollten Substanzen identifiziert werden, die durch Beeinflussung der Genexpression einer der beiden Proteasen das physiologische Gleichgewicht der APP-Prozessierung wiederherstellen können und somit therapeutisch einsetzbar sind.rnAnhand eines „Screenings“ von 704 Transkriptionsfaktoren wurden 23 Faktoren erhalten die das Verhältnis ADAM10- pro BACE-1-Promotor Aktivität beeinflussten. Exemplarisch wurden zwei der molekularen Faktoren auf ihren Wirkmechanismus untersucht: Der TF „X box binding protein-1“ (XBP-1), der die so genannte „unfolded protein response“ (UPR) reguliert, erhöhte die Expression von ADAM10 in Zellkultur-Experimenten. Die Menge dieses Faktors war in AD-Patienten im Vergleich zu gesunden, Alters-korrelierten Kontrollen signifikant erniedrigt. Im Gegensatz dazu verminderte der Seneszenz-assoziierte TF „T box 2“ (Tbx2) die Menge an ADAM10 in SH-SY5Y Zellen. Die Expression des Faktors selbst war in post-mortem Kortexgewebe von AD-Patienten erhöht. Zusätzlich zu den TFs konnten in einer Kooperation mit dem Helmholtz Zentrum München drei microRNAs (miRNA 103, 107, 1306) bioinformatisch prädiziert und experimentell validiert werden, die die Expression des humanen ADAM10 reduzierten.rnIm Rahmen dieser Arbeit konnten damit körpereigene Faktoren identifiziert werden, die die Menge an ADAM10 regulieren und folglich potenziell an der Entstehung der gestörten Homöostase der APP-Prozessierung beteiligt sind. Somit ist die AD auch im Hinblick auf eine A-beta-vermittelte Pathologie als multifaktorielle Krankheit zu verstehen, in der verschiedene Regulatoren zur gestörten APP-Prozessierung und somit zur pathologisch gesteigerten A-beta Generierung beitragen können. rnEine pharmakologische Erhöhung der ADAM10 Genexpression würde zu der Freisetzung von neuroprotektivem APPs-alpha und gleichzeitig zu einer reduzierten A-beta Generierung führen. Deshalb war ein weiteres Ziel dieser Arbeit die Evaluierung von Substanzen mit therapeutischem Potenzial im Hinblick auf eine erhöhte ADAM10 Expression. Von 640 FDA-zugelassenen Medikamenten einer Substanz-Bibliothek wurden 23 Substanzen identifiziert, die die Menge an ADAM10 signifikant steigerten während die Expression von BACE-1 und APP unbeeinflusst blieb. In Zusammenarbeit mit dem Institut für Pathologie (Johannes Gutenberg Universität Mainz) wurde ein Zellkultur-basiertes Modell etabliert, um die Permeationsfähigkeit der potenziellen Kandidaten-Substanzen über die Blut-Hirn Schranke (BHS) zu untersuchen. Von den 23 Medikamenten konnten neun im Rahmen des etablierten Modells als BHS-gängig charakterisiert werden. Somit erfüllen diese verbleibenden Medikamente die grundlegenden Anforderungen an ein AD-Therapeutikum. rnADAM10 spaltet neben APP eine Vielzahl anderer Substrate mit unterschiedlichen Funktionen in der Zelle. Zum Beispiel reguliert das Zelladhäsionsmolekül Neuroligin-1 (NL-1), das von ADAM10 prozessiert wird, die synaptische Funktion exzitatorischer Neurone. Aus diesem Grund ist die Abschätzung potenzieller, Therapie-bedingter Nebenwirkungen sehr wichtig. Im Rahmen eines Forschungsaufenthalts an der Universität von Tokio konnte in primären, kortikalen Neuronen der Ratte bei einer Retinoid-induzierten Erhöhung von ADAM10 neben einer vermehrten alpha-sekretorischen APP-Prozessierung auch eine gesteigerte Spaltung von NL-1 beobachtet werden. Dies lässt vermuten, dass bei einer Behandlung mit dem Retinoid Acitretin neben einer vermehrten APP-Spaltung durch ADAM10 auch die Regulation glutamaterger Neurone durch die Spaltung von NL-1 betroffen ist. Anhand eines geeigneten Alzheimer-Tiermodells sollten diese Befunde weiter analysiert werden, um so auf einen sicheren therapeutischen Ansatz bezüglich einer vermehrten ADAM10 Genexpression schließen zu können.rn

Clinical applicability of an US model to calculate the head blood outflow through collateral vessels.

Le vene giugulari interne sembrano essere la via principale attraverso cui il sangue defluisce dal cervello verso il cuore, quando siamo in posizione supina. Nel 2008 il professor Paolo Zamboni ha scoperto che una diminuzione dell'attività giugulare può portare allo sviluppo di una condizione emodinamica chiamata CCSVI. Questa può causare ipossia, ritardi nella perfusione cerebrale e riduzione del drenaggio dei cataboliti, oltre ad un'attivazione infiammatoria delle piccole vene e dei tessuti vicini. Questa condizione è stata da subito associata alla sclerosi multipla e su questo argomento si sono dibattuti molti gruppi di ricerca. Inoltre, altre patologie sembrano essere associate alla CCSVI, come il morbo di Parkinson, l'Alzheimer e la sindrome di Meniere. Proprio quest'ultima è uno degli argomenti che attualmente interessa di più il gruppo di lavoro in cui mi sono inserita. Questa patologia comporta problemi uditivi, come sordità e tinnito, vertigini e nausea. Il gruppo Vascolar Disease Center (VDC) dell'Università di Ferrara ha previsto per l'anno 2015 uno studio multicentrico, in cui si cercherà di verificare la correlazione tra CCSVI e sindrome di Meniere. La mia tesi fa parte di un studio preliminare a quello multicentrico. All'inizio del lavoro mi sono dedicata ad un'analisi critica di un modello emodinamico per la quantificazione dei flussi sanguigni: il modello BMC, pubblicato nel 2013 dal gruppo VDC, effettuando in parallelo una ricerca bibliografica sullo stato dell'arte in materia. In seguito ho cominciato a studiare off-line diversi studi patologici e fisiologici, in modo da prendere confidenza con gli strumenti e con le metodologie da utilizzare. Sono stata poi coinvolta dal gruppo VDC per partecipare attivamente al miglioramento del protocollo legato al modello BMC. Infine ho analizzato, con due metodologie differenti, 35 studi effettuati su pazienti otorinolaringoiatrici. Con i risultati ottenuti ho potuto effettuare diverse analisi statistiche al fine di verificare l'equivalenza delle due metodologie. L'obiettivo ultimo era quello di stabilire quale delle due fosse la tecnica migliore da utilizzare, successivamente, nello studio multicentrico.

A novel marker for heart failure: Cross sectional area assessment in a large vein by conductance catheter.

The present study investigates the feasibility of a new application able to check the heart failure status in a patient through the estimation of the venous distension. In this way it would be possible to follow up patients, avoiding invasive or expensive exams such as cardiac catheterization and echocardiography. Moreover, the devices would also be able to diagnose the decline of the disease, in order to allow a new adaptation to therapy, and vice versa to check the improvement in the patient’s conditions after the CRT device implant. This thesis is essentially divided into three parts: an analytical model was used to obtain an estimation of the error committed for the calculation of the CSA and to understand how the accuracy and sensitivity depend on the different configurations of the electrodes and the catheter position inside the vein; secondly, an in-vitro experiment was carried out in order to verify the practical feasibility for these kinds of measurements, in a very simplified model; in the end, several animal experiments were done to test the in-vivo practicability of the proposed method. The obtained results showed the feasibility of this approach. In fact, the error committed in the estimation of CSA, during the animal experiments, can be considered acceptable (CSAerror_max ≈ -14%). Moreover, it has been demonstrated that the conductance catheter allows assessing, not only the vein CSA, but also the breathing of the animal.

FRAX® assessment of osteoporotic fracture probability in Switzerland

A Swiss-specific FRAX model was developed. Patient profiles at increased probability of fracture beyond currently accepted reimbursement thresholds for bone mineral density (BMD) measurement by dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and osteoporosis treatment were identified.

A model for radiofrequency electromagnetic field predictions at outdoor and indoor locations in the context of epidemiological research

We present a geospatial model to predict the radiofrequency electromagnetic field from fixed site transmitters for use in epidemiological exposure assessment. The proposed model extends an existing model toward the prediction of indoor exposure, that is, at the homes of potential study participants. The model is based on accurate operation parameters of all stationary transmitters of mobile communication base stations, and radio broadcast and television transmitters for an extended urban and suburban region in the Basel area (Switzerland). The model was evaluated by calculating Spearman rank correlations and weighted Cohen's kappa (kappa) statistics between the model predictions and measurements obtained at street level, in the homes of volunteers, and in front of the windows of these homes. The correlation coefficients of the numerical predictions with street level measurements were 0.64, with indoor measurements 0.66, and with window measurements 0.67. The kappa coefficients were 0.48 (95%-confidence interval: 0.35-0.61) for street level measurements, 0.44 (95%-CI: 0.32-0.57) for indoor measurements, and 0.53 (95%-CI: 0.42-0.65) for window measurements. Although the modeling of shielding effects by walls and roofs requires considerable simplifications of a complex environment, we found a comparable accuracy of the model for indoor and outdoor points.