Estudio de caso del análisis de los alcances y limitaciones frente a la justicia, verdad y reparación de las víctimas de las masacres de Trujillo, Valle del Cauca y el Salado, Bolívar

Colombia ha sido escenario de disputas violentas por poder político y económico entre diferentes sectores. Del mismo modo, el país también ha manifestado una debilidad muy significativa en cuanto a su memoria histórica, hecho que se ha traducido en la segmentación del país entre quienes tienen conocimiento y conciencia acerca del conflicto interno armado y aquellos que parecen considerarlo como una serie de eventos violentos que se da en un contexto ajeno, en una suerte de país paralelo. Por lo tanto, el interés de este trabajo es el de participar en la construcción de una memoria histórica que permita al lector evidenciar y dimensionar el alcance de las acciones gubernamentales en relación a la verdad, justicia y reparación de las víctimas de violaciones a los derechos humanos

Does Final Energy Demand in Portugal Exhibit Long Memory? A Fractional Integration Analysis

In this paper, we measure the degree of fractional integration in final energy demand in Portugal using an ARFIMA model with and without adjustments for seasonality. We consider aggregate energy demand as well as final demand for petroleum, electricity, coal, and natural gas. Our findings suggest the presence of long memory in all of the components of energy demand. All fractional-difference parameters are positive and lower than 0.5 indicating that the series are stationary, although with mean reversion patterns slower than in the typical short-run processes. These results have important implications for the design of energy policies. As a result of the long-memory in final energy demand, the effects of temporary policy shocks will tend to disappear slowly. This means that even transitory shocks have long lasting effects. Given the temporary nature of these effects, however, permanent effects on final energy demand require permanent policies. This is unlike what would be suggested by the more standard, but much more limited, unit root approach, which would incorrectly indicate that even transitory policies would have permanent effects

Do Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Consumption Exhibit Long Memory? A Fractional Integration Analysis

In this article we use an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average approach to measure the degree of fractional integration of aggregate world CO2 emissions and its five components – coal, oil, gas, cement, and gas flaring. We find that all variables are stationary and mean reverting, but exhibit long-term memory. Our results suggest that both coal and oil combustion emissions have the weakest degree of long-range dependence, while emissions from gas and gas flaring have the strongest. With evidence of long memory, we conclude that transitory policy shocks are likely to have long-lasting effects, but not permanent effects. Accordingly, permanent effects on CO2 emissions require a more permanent policy stance. In this context, if one were to rely only on testing for stationarity and non-stationarity, one would likely conclude in favour of non-stationarity, and therefore that even transitory policy shocks