Modelo de covariância bayesiana para seleção de protfólios de investimentos

The portfolio theory is a field of study devoted to investigate the decision-making by investors of resources. The purpose of this process is to reduce risk through diversification and thus guarantee a return. Nevertheless, the classical Mean-Variance has been criticized regarding its parameters and it is observed that the use of variance and covariance has sensitivity to the market and parameter estimation. In order to reduce the estimation errors, the Bayesian models have more flexibility in modeling, capable of insert quantitative and qualitative parameters about the behavior of the market as a way of reducing errors. Observing this, the present study aimed to formulate a new matrix model using Bayesian inference as a way to replace the covariance in the MV model, called MCB - Covariance Bayesian model. To evaluate the model, some hypotheses were analyzed using the method ex post facto and sensitivity analysis. The benchmarks used as reference were: (1) the classical Mean Variance, (2) the Bovespa index's market, and (3) in addition 94 investment funds. The returns earned during the period May 2002 to December 2009 demonstrated the superiority of MCB in relation to the classical model MV and the Bovespa Index, but taking a little more diversifiable risk that the MV. The robust analysis of the model, considering the time horizon, found returns near the Bovespa index, taking less risk than the market. Finally, in relation to the index of Mao, the model showed satisfactory, return and risk, especially in longer maturities. Some considerations were made, as well as suggestions for further work

Classificação de imagens de ambientes coralinos: uma abordagem empregando uma combinação de classificadores e máquina de vetor de suporte

The use of the maps obtained from remote sensing orbital images submitted to digital processing became fundamental to optimize conservation and monitoring actions of the coral reefs. However, the accuracy reached in the mapping of submerged areas is limited by variation of the water column that degrades the signal received by the orbital sensor and introduces errors in the final result of the classification. The limited capacity of the traditional methods based on conventional statistical techniques to solve the problems related to the inter-classes took the search of alternative strategies in the area of the Computational Intelligence. In this work an ensemble classifiers was built based on the combination of Support Vector Machines and Minimum Distance Classifier with the objective of classifying remotely sensed images of coral reefs ecosystem. The system is composed by three stages, through which the progressive refinement of the classification process happens. The patterns that received an ambiguous classification in a certain stage of the process were revalued in the subsequent stage. The prediction non ambiguous for all the data happened through the reduction or elimination of the false positive. The images were classified into five bottom-types: deep water; under-water corals; inter-tidal corals; algal and sandy bottom. The highest overall accuracy (89%) was obtained from SVM with polynomial kernel. The accuracy of the classified image was compared through the use of error matrix to the results obtained by the application of other classification methods based on a single classifier (neural network and the k-means algorithm). In the final, the comparison of results achieved demonstrated the potential of the ensemble classifiers as a tool of classification of images from submerged areas subject to the noise caused by atmospheric effects and the water column

Análise dos fatores responsáveis pela alta salinidade do aqüífero fissural da microbacia da Riacho do Feijão - Pedro Avelino/RN

The fissures aquifer northeast semi-arid Brazilian, present high text frequently of leave, with of low a hídric availability. The research has as objective main to analyze the components that inside influence in the salinity of the waterbearing fissures of an evaluation physicist-chemistry of the water, leading in consideration the physical interventions of the environment. One used techniques of interpretation of image of Landsat satellite -1999 and delimitation of the micro basin through the topographical map SUDENE. One identified waters of the NaCl type with Ca++ and Mg++ in secondary concentrations. The analyzed wells (15), had presented an average salinity of 5.147 mg/L of STD and a well only supplies drinking waters with 319 mg/L of STD. The recharge of the aquifer one if carries through for infiltration in the open fracture of ortognaisse it migmatization. The type and directions of the fracture do not control the STD. Relations between salinity and out let do not exist. The quality of the well of low salinity is identical the superficial waters (aquifer dam and alluvial). The studies of the meteoric erosion processes had evidenced that in the transformations of the rock in ground, the Ca++ and Na+ are taken for superficial waters. The treatment of the data chemical showed that the grade of Na+, Ca++, Mg++ and Cl-are controlled for the evaporation process, from only water that would have the qualities of superficial waters or the well of low salinity. Already the HCO3-grade is controlled for the precipitation of the dolomite. The STD of this aquifer one would be consequence of the high tax of evaporation of dams constructed in regions of plain topography. You leave them precipitated in deep argillaceous ones dry dams are led for the aquifer in first rains. The research suggests some recommendations for the use and exploitation of the water salinity in piscicultura, carcinicultura, culture of the grass-salt (Atriplex sp), among others

Tratamento de borra de petróleo com sistemas microemulsionados

During the storage of oil, sludge is formed in the bottoms of tanks, due to decantation, since the sludge is composed of a large quantity of oil (heavy petroleum fractions), water and solids. The oil sludge is a complex viscous mixture which is considered as a hazardous waste. It is then necessary to develop methods and technologies that optimize the cleaning process, oil extraction and applications in industry. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the composition of the oil sludge, to obtain and characterize microemulsion systems (MES), and to study their applications in the treatment of sludge. In this context, the Soxhlet extraction of crude oil sludge and aged sludge was carried out, and allowing to quantify the oil (43.9 % and 84.7 % - 13 ºAPI), water (38.7 % and 9.15 %) and solid (17.3 % and 6.15 %) contents, respectively. The residues were characterized using the techniques of X-ray fluorescence (XRF), Xray diffraction (XRD) and transmission Infrared (FT-IR). The XRF technique determined the presence of iron and sulfur in higher proportions, confirming by XRD the presence of the following minerals: Pyrite (FeS2), Pyrrhotite (FeS) and Magnetite (Fe3O4). The FT-IR showed the presence of heavy oil fractions. In parallel, twelve MES were prepared, combining the following constituents: two nonionic surfactants (Unitol L90 and Renex 110 - S), three cosurfactants (butanol, sec-butanol and isoamyl alcohol - C), three aqueous phase (tap water - ADT, acidic solution 6 % HCl, and saline solution - 3.5 % NaCl - AP) and an oil phase (kerosene - OP). From the obtained systems, a common point was chosen belonging to the microemulsion region (25 % [C+S] 5 % OP and AP 70 %), which was characterized at room temperature (25°C) by viscosity (Haake Rheometer Mars), particle diameter (Zeta Plus) and thermal stability. Mixtures with this composition were applied to oil sludge solubilization under agitation at a ratio of 1:4, by varying time and temperature. The efficiencies of solubilization were obtained excluding the solids, which ranged between 73.5 % and 95 %. Thus, two particular systems were selected for use in storage tanks, with efficiencies of oil sludge solubilization over 90 %, which proved the effectiveness of the MES. The factorial design delimited within the domain showed how the MES constituents affect the solubilization of aged oil sludge, as predictive models. The MES A was chosen as the best system, which solubilized a high amount of aged crude oil sludge (~ 151.7 g / L per MES)

Macrofauna de ambientes não consolidados adjacentes à recifes da área de proteção ambiental dos recifes de corais Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil

This study aimed to characterize, for the first time, the benthic invertebrates that inhabit the region of soft bottoms adjacent to the APARC reefs in order to situate them as an important component of infralittoral coastal areas of Northeast Brazil. Soft bottoms areas of APARC corresponds to infralittoral zones vegetated by seagrass Halodule wrightii and unvegetated infralittoral zones, both subjected to substantial hydrodynamic stress. Through scuba diving, biological and sedimentary samples of both habitats were analyzed, with a cylindrical sampler. We identified 6160 individuals belonging to 16 groups and 224 species. The most abundant macrofaunal group was Polychaeta (43%), followed by Mollusca (25%) and Crustacea (14%), what was expected for these environments. In the first chapter, regarding vegetated areas, we tested three hypotheses: the existence of differences in the faunal structure associated with H. wrightii banks submitted to different hydrodynamic conditions; the occurrence of minor temporal variations on the associated macrofauna of banks protected from hydrodynamic stress; and if the diversity of macrofauna is affected by both benthophagous predators and H. wrightii biomass. It was observed that macrofauna associated at the Exposed bank showed differences in structure when comparing the Protected bank, the granulometry of the sediments, that co-varies with the hydrodynamism, was the cause of these variations. The results also pointed to a lower temporal variation in the macrofaunal structure on the Protected bank and a negative relation between macrofaunal and benthophagous fish abundance. At the Exposed bank, a greater faunal diversity was observed, probably due to the higher seagrass biomass. The second chapter compares the vegetated and non-vegetated areas in order to test the hypothesis that due to greater seasonal stability in tropical environments, seagrass structure would act to distinguish the vegetated and non-vegetated areas macrofauna, over time. It was also expected that depositivores were the most representative invertebrates on non-vegetated environments, on the assumption that the seagrass bank would work as a source of debris to adjacent areas, enriching them. Considering all sampling periods, the total macrofauna abundance and diversity were higher in vegetated areas, when compared to non-vegetated ones. Seasonally, the structural complexity provided by Halodule differentiated more clearly the fauna from vegetated and non-vegetated areas, but only at the climatic extremes, i.e. Dry season (extreme climatic stability, with low hydronamism variation) and Rainy season (great hydrodynamism variation and probably vegetated bank burial). Furthermore, the high organic matter levels measured in the sandy banks coincided with an outstanding trophic importance of deposit feeders, proving the debris-carrying hypothesis. The last chapter focused on the non-vegetated areas, where we tested that the hypothesis infaunal halo in tropical reefs depending on local granulometry. In this context, we also tested the hypothesis that benthophagous fish predation would have an effect on the low abundance of macrofaunal groups due to the high hydrographic stress, thus allowing other predatory groups to have greater importance in these environments. Proving the hypothesis, no spatial variation, both on abundance families neither on community structure, occur along distance of the edge reefs. However, we found that complex combinations of physical factors (grain size and organic matter levels originated from local hydronamic conditions) covary with the distance from the reefs and has stronger influence on macrofauna than considered biological factors, such as predation by benthophagous fishes. Based on the main results, this study shows that unconsolidated areas around APARC reefs are noteworthy from an ecological and conservational point of view, as evidenced by the biota-environment and organismal relations, never before described for these areas

Caracterização florística e fitossociológica do componente arbustivo-arbóreo de uma floresta paludosa no Município de Rio Claro (SP), Brasil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Dieta do cascudo Aspidoras fuscoguttatus (Ostariophysi, Callichthyidae) em riachos com diferentes características limnológicas e estruturais

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Caracterização dos elementos físicos da bacia do córrego Santo Antônio (Rio Claro/SP)

O objetivo desta pesquisa foi caracterizar os elementos físicos da bacia do córrego Santo Antônio, buscando compreender a influência que a área de entorno dessa bacia exerce sobre a Floresta Estadual Edmundo Navarro de Andrade (FEENA). Para isto, foram elaboradas as cartas geomorfológica e de uso do solo, além da compilação de dados geológicos, pedológicos e climáticos. Essa influência foi avaliada em termos da dinâmica de remobilização de materiais provenientes das nascentes, que não pertencem a FEENA, e que se constituem, portanto, em área de uso agrícola. A análise das características físicas indicou que essa área é susceptível a ação dos processos morfogenéticos e que estes foram intensificados e acelerados pelo uso do solo ao redor das nascentes. Verifica-se, assim, a necessidade de se reavaliar esse uso e de se fiscalizar o cumprimento da própria legislação ambiental, no que se refere ao uso e ocupação do território, em fundos de vale.

Recursos naturais na União das Nações Sul-americanas (UNASUL): Situação e tendências para uma agenda de desenvolvimento regional

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Crédito bancário no Brasil: participação das pequenas empresas e condições de acesso

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A experiência brasileira com instituições financeiras de desenvolvimento

Incluye Bibliografía

Mercado de carbono: um estudo comparado entre Brasil, China e Índia

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Delimitação de unidades ambientais na bacia do Rio Capivara, Botucatu (SP)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Geotecnologia aplicada à análise da expansão urbana de Botucatu–SP (1962 – 2010)

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Gênese documental de álbuns fotográficos: um estudo de caso aplicado a uma indústria de grande porte

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)