Predictors of disability retirement: From early intentions to retirement

The strong tendency of elderly employees to retire early and the simultaneous aging of the population have been major topics of policy and scientific debate. A key concern has been the financing of future pension schemes and possible labour shortage, especially in social and health services within the public sector. The aging of the population is inevitable, but efforts can be made to prevent or postpone early exit from the labour force, e.g., by identifying and intervening in the factors that contribute to the process of early retirement due to disability. The associations of intentions to retire early, poor mental health and different psychosocial factors with the process of disability retirement are still poorly understood. The purpose of this study was to investigate the associations of intentions to retire early, poor mental health, work and family related psychosocial factors and experiences of earlier life stages with the process of disability retirement. The data were derived from the Helsinki Health Study (HHS, N=8960) and the Health and Social Support Study (HeSSup, N=25 901). The Helsinki Health Study is an ongoing employee cohort study among middle-aged women and men. The Health and Social Support Study is an ongoing longitudinal study of a working-age sample representative of the Finnish population. The analyses were restricted to respondents 40 years of age or older. Age and gender adjusted prevalence and incidence rates were calculated. Associations were studied by using logistic, multinomial and Cox regression. Strong intentions to retire early were common among employees. Poor mental health, unfavourable working conditions and work-to-family conflicts were clearly associated with increased intentions to retire early. Strong intentions to retire early predicted disability retirement. Risk of disability retirement increased in a dose-response manner with increasing number of childhood adversities. Poor mental and somatic health, life dissatisfaction, heavy alcohol consumption, current smoking, obesity and low socioeconomic status were also predictors of disability retirement. The impact of poor mental health and adverse experiences from earlier life stages, work and family related psychosocial factors, e.g., work-family interface, the subjective experience of well-being and health related risk behaviours on the process of disability retirement should be recognised. Preventive measures against disability retirement should be launched before subjective experience of ill health, work disability and strong intentions to retire early emerge.

Sequential Monte Carlo computation of the score and observed information matrix in state-space models with application to parameter estimation

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are popular computational tools for Bayesian inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. For this class of models, we propose SMC algorithms to compute the score vector and observed information matrix recursively in time. We propose two different SMC implementations, one with computational complexity $\mathcal{O}(N)$ and the other with complexity $\mathcal{O}(N^{2})$ where $N$ is the number of importance sampling draws. Although cheaper, the performance of the $\mathcal{O}(N)$ method degrades quickly in time as it inherently relies on the SMC approximation of a sequence of probability distributions whose dimension is increasing linearly with time. In particular, even under strong \textit{mixing} assumptions, the variance of the estimates computed with the $\mathcal{O}(N)$ method increases at least quadratically in time. The $\mathcal{O}(N^{2})$ is a non-standard SMC implementation that does not suffer from this rapid degrade. We then show how both methods can be used to perform batch and recursive parameter estimation.

Early response to nanoparticles in the Arabidopsis transcriptome compromises plant defence and root-hair development through salicylic acid signalling

Background: The impact of nano-scaled materials on photosynthetic organisms needs to be evaluated. Plants represent the largest interface between the environment and biosphere, so understanding how nanoparticles affect them is especially relevant for environmental assessments. Nanotoxicology studies in plants allude to quantum size effects and other properties specific of the nano-stage to explain increased toxicity respect to bulk compounds. However, gene expression profiles after exposure to nanoparticles and other sources of environmental stress have not been compared and the impact on plant defence has not been analysed. Results: Arabidopsis plants were exposed to TiO2-nanoparticles, Ag-nanoparticles, and multi-walled carbon nanotubes as well as different sources of biotic (microbial pathogens) or abiotic (saline, drought, or wounding) stresses. Changes in gene expression profiles and plant phenotypic responses were evaluated. Transcriptome analysis shows similarity of expression patterns for all plants exposed to nanoparticles and a low impact on gene expression compared to other stress inducers. Nanoparticle exposure repressed transcriptional responses to microbial pathogens, resulting in increased bacterial colonization during an experimental infection. Inhibition of root hair development and transcriptional patterns characteristic of phosphate starvation response were also observed. The exogenous addition of salicylic acid prevented some nano-specific transcriptional and phenotypic effects, including the reduction in root hair formation and the colonization of distal leaves by bacteria. Conclusions: This study integrates the effect of nanoparticles on gene expression with plant responses to major sources of environmental stress and paves the way to remediate the impact of these potentially damaging compounds through hormonal priming.

The Sunday-school : its origin, mission, methods, and auxiliaries / by H. Clay Trumbull.

http://www.archive.org/details/thesundayschooli00trumuoft

Early biomarkers to predict grade of encephalopathy following hypoxic ischaemic injury

The standard early markers for identifying and grading HIE severity, are not sufficient to ensure all children who would benefit from treatment are identified in a timely fashion. The aim of this thesis was to explore potential early biomarkers of HIE. Methods: To achieve this a cohort of infants with perinatal depression was prospectively recruited. All infants had cord blood samples drawn and biobanked, and were assessed with standardised neurological examination, and early continuous multi-channel EEG. Cord samples from a control cohort of healthy infants were used for comparison. Biomarkers studied included; multiple inflammatory proteins using multiplex assay; the metabolomics profile using LC/MS; and the miRNA profile using microarray. Results: Eighty five infants with perinatal depression were recruited. Analysis of inflammatory proteins consisted of exploratory analysis of 37 analytes conducted in a sub-population, followed by validation of all significantly altered analytes in the remaining population. IL-6 and IL-6 differed significantly in infants with a moderate/severely abnormal vs. a normal-mildly abnormal EEG in both cohorts (Exploratory: p=0.016, p=0.005: Validation: p=0.024, p=0.039; respectively). Metabolomic analysis demonstrated a perturbation in 29 metabolites. A Cross- validated Partial Least Square Discriminant Analysis model was developed, which accurately predicted HIE with an AUC of 0.92 (95% CI: 0.84-0.97). Analysis of the miRNA profile found 70 miRNA significantly altered between moderate/severely encephalopathic infants and controls. miRNA target prediction databases identified potential targets for the altered miRNA in pathways involved in cellular metabolism, cell cycle and apoptosis, cell signaling, and the inflammatory cascade. Conclusion: This thesis has demonstrated that the recruitment of a large cohortof asphyxiated infants, with cord blood carefully biobanked, and detailed early neurophysiological and clinical assessment recorded, is feasible. Additionally the results described, provide potential alternate and novel blood based biomarkers for the identification and assessment of HIE.

[BSHM meetings] Topics in the history of financial mathematics: early commerce to chaos in modern stock markets

This account provides an overview of the study day, entitled 'Topics in the History of Financial Mathematics: Early commerce to chaos in modern stock markets,' held by the British Society for the History of Mathematics jointly with Gresham College, at Gresham College, London on 25th April 2008. The series of talks explored the development of mathematics and mathematical techniques in a commercial and financial context.

The State, Compartmentalization and the Turn to Local Community: A Critique of the Political Thought of Alasdair MacIntyre

Alasdair MacIntyre condemns modern politics, specifically liberalism and the institutions of the liberal state, as irredeemably fallen. His core argument is that the liberal state encourages a disempowering ‘compartmentalization’ of people’s everyday roles and activities that undermines the intersubjective conditions of human flourishing. MacIntyre’s alternative is an Aristotelian politics centred on the notion of “practice.” Defined by justice and solidarity, this politics can only be realized, he claims, within local communities which oppose and resist the dictates of the administrative state and capitalist market. Here it is argued that MacIntyre’s notion of “practice” represents a compelling ethical-political ideal. However, the belief that this ideal is best realized within local communities is rejected. In privileging local community, MacIntyre relies on a reductive view of modern states and overlooks the institutional conditions of a just polity. Against this, it is argued that a politics of human flourishing cannot succeed without an emancipatory transformation of large-scale, trans-communal institutions, in particular the state.

Bax and the 'Celtic North'

A feature of scholarship on Arnold Bax is his indebtedness, in his early works, to the Irish literary revival (particularly in the mythology-suffused works of 'AE' and early Yeats) and, in his later works, to the music of Jean Sibelius, and the relationship between these periods. I argue that this relationship, which I summarize by using Bax's portmanteau term of 'Celtic North', is underpinned by the stimulus of landscape, which, as well as being a means by which to return to the Romantic idea of the sublime, also provides a means by which Bax critiques the more modernist relationship with landscape that underpins the English pastoral school of the 1920s. Thus the 'Celtic North' is the antithesis to the English 'south land' of Vaughan Williams and others.