960 resultados para Competing risks, Estimation of predator mortality, Over dispersion, Stochastic modeling
Resumo:
UNLABELLED: Burkholderia pseudomallei causes the potentially fatal disease melioidosis. It is generally accepted that B. pseudomallei is a noncommensal bacterium and that any culture-positive clinical specimen denotes disease requiring treatment. Over a 23-year study of melioidosis cases in Darwin, Australia, just one patient from 707 survivors has developed persistent asymptomatic B. pseudomallei carriage. To better understand the mechanisms behind this unique scenario, we performed whole-genome analysis of two strains isolated 139 months apart. During this period, B. pseudomallei underwent several adaptive changes. Of 23 point mutations, 78% were nonsynonymous and 43% were predicted to be deleterious to gene function, demonstrating a strong propensity for positive selection. Notably, a nonsense mutation inactivated the universal stress response sigma factor RpoS, with pleiotropic implications. The genome underwent substantial reduction, with four deletions in chromosome 2 resulting in the loss of 221 genes. The deleted loci included genes involved in secondary metabolism, environmental survival, and pathogenesis. Of 14 indels, 11 occurred in coding regions and 9 resulted in frameshift mutations that dramatically affected predicted gene products. Disproportionately, four indels affected lipopolysaccharide biosynthesis and modification. Finally, we identified a frameshift mutation in both P314 isolates within wcbR, an important component of the capsular polysaccharide I locus, suggesting virulence attenuation early in infection. Our study illustrates a unique clinical case that contrasts a high-consequence infectious agent with a long-term commensal infection and provides further insights into bacterial evolution within the human host.
IMPORTANCE: Some bacterial pathogens establish long-term infections that are difficult or impossible to eradicate with current treatments. Rapid advances in genome sequencing technologies provide a powerful tool for understanding bacterial persistence within the human host. Burkholderia pseudomallei is considered a highly pathogenic bacterium because infection is commonly fatal. Here, we document within-host evolution of B. pseudomallei in a unique case of human infection with ongoing chronic carriage. Genomic comparison of isolates obtained 139 months (11.5 years) apart showed a strong signal of adaptation within the human host, including inactivation of virulence and immunogenic factors, and deletion of pathways involved in environmental survival. Two global regulatory genes were mutated in the 139-month isolate, indicating extensive regulatory changes favoring bacterial persistence. Our study provides insights into B. pseudomallei pathogenesis and, more broadly, identifies parallel evolutionary mechanisms that underlie chronic persistence of all bacterial pathogens.
Resumo:
We consider the local order estimation of nonlinear autoregressive systems with exogenous inputs (NARX), which may have different local dimensions at different points. By minimizing the kernel-based local information criterion introduced in this paper, the strongly consistent estimates for the local orders of the NARX system at points of interest are obtained. The modification of the criterion and a simple procedure of searching the minimum of the criterion, are also discussed. The theoretical results derived here are tested by simulation examples.
Resumo:
Hydrogenation reactions at transition metal surfaces comprise a key set of reactions in heterogeneous catalysis. In this paper, density functional theory methods are employed to take an in-depth look at this fundamental reaction type. The energetics of hydrogenation of atomic C, N, and O have been studied in some detail over low index Zr, Nb, Mo, Tc, Ru, Rh, and Pd surfaces. Detailed bonding analysis has also been employed to track carefully the chemical changes taking place during reaction. A number of interesting horizontal and vertical trends have been uncovered relating to reactant valency and metal d-band filling. A general correlation has also been found between the reaction barriers and the reaction potential energies. Moreover, when each reaction is considered independently, correlation has been found to improve with decreasing reactant valency. Bonding analysis has pointed to this being related to the relative position of the transition state along the reaction coordinate and has shown that as reactant valency decreases, the transition states become progressively later.
An integrated approach for real-time model-based state-of-charge estimation of lithium-ion batteries
Resumo:
Lithium-ion batteries have been widely adopted in electric vehicles (EVs), and accurate state of charge (SOC) estimation is of paramount importance for the EV battery management system. Though a number of methods have been proposed, the SOC estimation for Lithium-ion batteries, such as LiFePo4 battery, however, faces two key challenges: the flat open circuit voltage (OCV) vs SOC relationship for some SOC ranges and the hysteresis effect. To address these problems, an integrated approach for real-time model-based SOC estimation of Lithium-ion batteries is proposed in this paper. Firstly, an auto-regression model is adopted to reproduce the battery terminal behaviour, combined with a non-linear complementary model to capture the hysteresis effect. The model parameters, including linear parameters and non-linear parameters, are optimized off-line using a hybrid optimization method that combines a meta-heuristic method (i.e., the teaching learning based optimization method) and the least square method. Secondly, using the trained model, two real-time model-based SOC estimation methods are presented, one based on the real-time battery OCV regression model achieved through weighted recursive least square method, and the other based on the state estimation using the extended Kalman filter method (EKF). To tackle the problem caused by the flat OCV-vs-SOC segments when the OCV-based SOC estimation method is adopted, a method combining the coulombic counting and the OCV-based method is proposed. Finally, modelling results and SOC estimation results are presented and analysed using the data collected from LiFePo4 battery cell. The results confirmed the effectiveness of the proposed approach, in particular the joint-EKF method.
Resumo:
Mathematical models are useful tools for simulation, evaluation, optimal operation and control of solar cells and proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs). To identify the model parameters of these two type of cells efficiently, a biogeography-based optimization algorithm with mutation strategies (BBO-M) is proposed. The BBO-M uses the structure of biogeography-based optimization algorithm (BBO), and both the mutation motivated from the differential evolution (DE) algorithm and the chaos theory are incorporated into the BBO structure for improving the global searching capability of the algorithm. Numerical experiments have been conducted on ten benchmark functions with 50 dimensions, and the results show that BBO-M can produce solutions of high quality and has fast convergence rate. Then, the proposed BBO-M is applied to the model parameter estimation of the two type of cells. The experimental results clearly demonstrate the power of the proposed BBO-M in estimating model parameters of both solar and fuel cells.
Resumo:
The characteristics of hydraulic jumps were investigated for three shapes of artificial apparent corrugated beds in a horizontal rectangular flume. Rectangular, triangular, and circular-shaped tire waste corrugated beds were used. Froude number ranged from 2.75 to 4.25. The experimental observations included water surface profiles, bed shear stress, and the hydraulic jump length. Results showed that the shape of the corrugation had relatively insignificant effects on hydraulic jump properties for small Froude numbers. The rectangular, triangular, and circular-shaped corrugated beds reduced the hydraulic jump length by up to 7, 10, and 11%, respectively. The corrugated bed also reduced the tailwater depth by up to 11.5% compared with the smooth bed. The apparent conditions of corrugated bed reduced the hydraulic jump relative length and height by about 0.4 and 0.5, respectively. The circular-shaped tire waste was found to be more effective in reducing the length and depth of the hydraulic jump.