Creating and Internalizing Corporate Brand Identity, Case Wärtsilä

Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli paremmin ymmärtää yritysbrandin identiteetin käsitettä sekä tutkia, miten brandi-identiteetti voidaan luoda ja sisäistää globaalissa konsernissa. Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli myös selvittää mahdollisia eroavuuksia case-yritys Wärtsilän todellisen ja toivotun brandi-identiteetin välillä. Kattavan kirjallisuuskatsauksen avulla tarkasteltiin yritysbrandin käsitettä ja sen merkitystä liiketoiminnassa sekä sitä, minkälaisen prosessin avulla yritysbrandi voidaan rakentaa. Myös brandi-identiteetin sisäistämiskeinoja pyrittiin löytämään kirjallisuuskatsauksen avulla. Wärtsilän toivottua brandi-identiteettiä tutkittiin teemahaastattelujen avulla. Henkilöstön mielikuvia eli todellista sisäistä brandi-identiteettiä selvitettiin kvantitatiivisella kyselytutkimuksella. Tutkimus osoitti, että yritysbrandin identiteetti on käsitteenä monitahoinen ja että sillä on yhtymäkohtia useisiin rinnakkaisiin käsitteisiin, kuten yrityksen identiteettiin, uskottavuuteen, maineeseen, liiketoimintastrategiaan, visioon ja missioon. Tämä tutkimus esittääkin, että yritysbrandin identiteetin käsittelyn tulisi aina olla kokonaisvaltaista, jotta saavutettaisiin jotakin rakentavaa ja arvokasta. Tutkimuksessa todetaan myös, että yritysbrandin rooli tulee tulevaisuudessa kasvamaan, koska kestävän kilpailuedun saavuttaminen tulee entistä vaikeammaksi. Tutkimus tähdentää myös henkilöstön roolin merkitystä yritysbrandin kehittämisessä. Tämän tutkimuksen mukaan yritysbrandin identiteetti voidaan luoda portaittaisen mallin avulla: Ensin tehdään strategiset brandianalyysit, määritellään toivotut mielikuvat ja positiointi, toisin sanoen brandin olemus, ja lopuksi nämä kaikki yhdistetään brandilupaukseksi. Yrityksen henkilöstön tulee sisäistää brandilupaus, jotta sen viestiminen ulospäin olisi mahdollisimman yhdenmukaista. Sisäistämistä voidaan edesauttaa mm. luomalla brandikirja, video, yritystarina, roolimalleja, käyttämällä yrityksen Intranettiä sekä pitämällä seminaareja ja ”workshopeja”. Tutkimuksessa havaittiin, että luomisprosessiin vaikuttavat monenlaiset tekijät, kuten muuttuva globaali liiketoimintaympäristö, organisatoriset asiat sekä moninaiset sidosryhmät.

Targeting of Fn14 Prevents Cancer-Induced Cachexia and Prolongs Survival.

The cytokine TWEAK and its cognate receptor Fn14 are members of the TNF/TNFR superfamily and are upregulated in tumors. We found that Fn14, when expressed in tumors, causes cachexia and that antibodies against Fn14 dramatically extended lifespan by inhibiting tumor-induced weight loss although having only moderate inhibitory effects on tumor growth. Anti-Fn14 antibodies prevented tumor-induced inflammation and loss of fat and muscle mass. Fn14 signaling in the tumor, rather than host, is responsible for inducing this cachexia because tumors in Fn14- and TWEAK-deficient hosts developed cachexia that was comparable to that of wild-type mice. These results extend the role of Fn14 in wound repair and muscle development to involvement in the etiology of cachexia and indicate that Fn14 antibodies may be a promising approach to treat cachexia, thereby extending lifespan and improving quality of life for cancer patients.

On the Analysis and Control of a Linear Synchronous Servomotor with a Flexible Load

Industry's growing need for higher productivity is placing new demands on mechanisms connected with electrical motors, because these can easily lead to vibration problems due to fast dynamics. Furthermore, the nonlinear effects caused by a motor frequently reduce servo stability, which diminishes the controller's ability to predict and maintain speed. Hence, the flexibility of a mechanism and its control has become an important area of research. The basic approach in control system engineering is to assume that the mechanism connected to a motor is rigid, so that vibrations in the tool mechanism, reel, gripper or any apparatus connected to the motor are not taken into account. This might reduce the ability of the machine system to carry out its assignment and shorten the lifetime of the equipment. Nonetheless, it is usually more important to know how the mechanism, or in other words the load on the motor, behaves. A nonlinear load control method for a permanent magnet linear synchronous motor is developed and implemented in the thesis. The purpose of the controller is to track a flexible load to the desired velocity reference as fast as possible and without awkward oscillations. The control method is based on an adaptive backstepping algorithm with its stability ensured by the Lyapunov stability theorem. As a reference controller for the backstepping method, a hybrid neural controller is introduced in which the linear motor itself is controlled by a conventional PI velocity controller and the vibration of the associated flexible mechanism is suppressed from an outer control loop using a compensation signal from a multilayer perceptron network. To avoid the local minimum problem entailed in neural networks, the initial weights are searched for offline by means of a differential evolution algorithm. The states of a mechanical system for controllers are estimated using the Kalman filter. The theoretical results obtained from the control design are validated with the lumped mass model for a mechanism. Generalization of the mechanism allows the methods derived here to be widely implemented in machine automation. The control algorithms are first designed in a specially introduced nonlinear simulation model and then implemented in the physical linear motor using a DSP (Digital Signal Processor) application. The measurements prove that both controllers are capable of suppressing vibration, but that the backstepping method is superior to others due to its accuracy of response and stability properties.

The vertical dimension of social relations and accurate interpersonal perception: A meta-analysis (Publishd online: 24 Oct. 2014)

There is little consensus regarding how verticality (social power, dominance, and status) is related to accurate interpersonal perception. The relation could be either positive or negative, and there could be many causal processes at play. The present article discusses the theoretical possibilities and presents a meta-analysis of this question. In studies using a standard test of interpersonal accuracy, higher socioeconomic status (SES) predicted higher accuracy defined as accurate inference about the meanings of cues; also, higher experimentally manipulated vertical position predicted higher accuracy defined as accurate recall of others' words. In addition, although personality dominance did not predict accurate inference overall, the type of personality dominance did, such that empathic/responsible dominance had a positive relation and egoistic/aggressive dominance had a negative relation to accuracy. In studies involving live interaction, higher experimentally manipulated vertical position produced lower accuracy defined as accurate inference about cues; however, methodological problems place this result in doubt.

Co-evolution of Policy Sectors: Health Care and Public Health in five Countries

Cette thèse analyse la co-évolution de deux secteurs dans la politique de la santé: santé publique (public health) et soins aux malades (health care). En d'autres termes, la relation entre les dimensions curative et préventive de la politique de la santé et leur développement dans la durée. Une telle recherche est nécessaire car les problèmes de la santé sont complexes et ont besoin de solutions coordonnées. De plus, les dépenses de la santé ont augmenté sans arrt durant les dernières décennies. Un moyen de réduire une future augmentation des dépenses pourrait consister en davantage d'investissement dans des mesures préventives. En relation avec cette idée, ma recherche analyse les politiques de la santé publique et les soins aux malades de cinq pays: Allemagne, Angleterre, Australie, Etats-Unis et Suisse. En m'appuyant sur la littérature secondaire, des statistiques descriptives et des entretiens avec des experts et des politiciens, j'analyse la relation entre les deux secteurs depuis la fin du dix-neuvième siècle. En particulier, je me focalise sur la relation des deux champs sur trois niveaux: institutions, acteurs et politiques. Mes résultats montrent les similitudes et les différences d'évolution entre les cinq pays. D'un c^oté, lorsque la profession médicale est politiquement active et que le pays consiste en une fédération centralisée ou en un gouvernement unitaire, les deux secteurs sont intégrés au niveau institutionnel, ralliant les professions et groupes d'intérêt des deux secteurs la cause commune dans une activité politique. Par contre, dans tous les pays, les deux secteurs ont co-évolué vers une complémentarité malgré de la politisation des professions et la centralisation du gouvernement. Ces résultats sont intéressants pour la science politique en général car ils soulignent l'importance des professions pour le développement institutionnel et proposent un cadre pour l'analyse de la co-évolution des politiques publiques en général. -- This Ph.D. thesis analyzes the co-evolution of the health care and the public health sectors. In other words, the relation between preventive and curative health policy and its evolution over time. Such research is necessary, because current health problems are complex and might need coordinated solutions. What is more, health expenditures have increased continuously in the last decades. One way to slow down further increase in health spending could be to invest more in preventative health policies. Therefore, I am connecting individual health care and public health into a common analysis, taking Australia, Germany, Switzerland, the UK and the U.S. as examples. Based on secondary literature, descriptive statistics and interviews with experts and policymakers, I am analyzing how the two sectors' relations co-evolved between the late nineteenth and the early twenty-first century. Specifically, I am researching how health care and public health were related on the levels of institutions, actors and policies. My results show that there are differences and similarities in the co-evolution of policy sectors between these countries. On the one hand, when the medical profession was politically active and the country a centralized federation or a unitary state, there was institutional integration and common political advocacy of the sectors' interest groups and professions. On the other hand, in all countries, both sectors co-evolved towards complementarity, irrespectively of the politicization of professions and centralization of government. These findings are interesting for the political science literature at large, because they underline the importance of professions for institutional development and propose an analytical framework for analyzing the co-evolution of policy sectors in general.

New kernel functions and learning methods for text and data mining

Recent advances in machine learning methods enable increasingly the automatic construction of various types of computer assisted methods that have been difficult or laborious to program by human experts. The tasks for which this kind of tools are needed arise in many areas, here especially in the fields of bioinformatics and natural language processing. The machine learning methods may not work satisfactorily if they are not appropriately tailored to the task in question. However, their learning performance can often be improved by taking advantage of deeper insight of the application domain or the learning problem at hand. This thesis considers developing kernel-based learning algorithms incorporating this kind of prior knowledge of the task in question in an advantageous way. Moreover, computationally efficient algorithms for training the learning machines for specific tasks are presented. In the context of kernel-based learning methods, the incorporation of prior knowledge is often done by designing appropriate kernel functions. Another well-known way is to develop cost functions that fit to the task under consideration. For disambiguation tasks in natural language, we develop kernel functions that take account of the positional information and the mutual similarities of words. It is shown that the use of this information significantly improves the disambiguation performance of the learning machine. Further, we design a new cost function that is better suitable for the task of information retrieval and for more general ranking problems than the cost functions designed for regression and classification. We also consider other applications of the kernel-based learning algorithms such as text categorization, and pattern recognition in differential display. We develop computationally efficient algorithms for training the considered learning machines with the proposed kernel functions. We also design a fast cross-validation algorithm for regularized least-squares type of learning algorithm. Further, an efficient version of the regularized least-squares algorithm that can be used together with the new cost function for preference learning and ranking tasks is proposed. In summary, we demonstrate that the incorporation of prior knowledge is possible and beneficial, and novel advanced kernels and cost functions can be used in algorithms efficiently.

Les vaccins contre le zona : efficacité, sécurité, et rapport coût/bénéfices [Vaccines against Herpes zoster: Effectiveness, safety, and cost/benefit ratio].

CONTEXT: A vaccination against herpes zoster and its complication is available in France since June 2015. Its exact benefit for public health is still controversial and its level of protection is not optimal. All those reasons seem to suggest a low acceptation rate from general practitioners. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness, the safety, and the cost/benefit ratio of the vaccination against herpes zoster in people aged 50 year or over. DOCUMENTARY SOURCE: Systematic review in Medline and PubMed with research by key words: "herpes zoster vaccine", "zoster vaccine" and "post herpetic neuralgia vaccine". SELECTION OF STUDIES: Randomized and observational studies published in English and French language have been selected by two readers. RESULTS: On 1886 articles identified, 62 studies were included in this systematic review of which 21 randomized trials, 21 observational studies, and 17 medico-economic studies concerned the unadjuvanted vaccine. Considered studies showed an effectiveness of 50% against herpes zoster and 60% on post-herpetic neuralgia incidence of the unadjuvanted vaccine. Five randomized controlled studies were identified for the adjuvanted vaccine. The overall effectiveness of this vaccine was > 90% whatever the age of subjects including those over age 70 and 80. The medico-economic studies conducted in many countries have shown that vaccine policies were beneficial in individuals aged 60 years or over. LIMITATION OF THE WORK: Most of data of effectiveness, and tolerance result from 2 large controlled studies only (SPS and ZEST) for the unadjuvanted vaccine and only one for the adjuvanted vaccine. CONCLUSION: Despite controversy and few uncertainties, the vaccine significantly reduces herpes zoster and its complication incidence. In terms of public health objectives, it reduces the burden of the disease and has a positive medico-economic impact. Preliminary data concerning the adjuvanted vaccine, whilst very promising, are still too limited. Up to now, no group of people with particularly high risk of herpes zoster-related complication who will beneficiate the most of the vaccination has been identified yet and only an age criteria has been considered for the recommendation.

Traditional cockney and popular London speech

This paper gives a full description of the phonetics and phonology of Traditional Cockney and Popular London speech, treating these varieties as constituting a continuum rather than two separate dialects. Exemplification of the vowels, diphthongs and consonants is provided, both in isolate words and in connected speech, along with their range of variation. The frequencies of the vowels have been charted on the basis of the pronunciation of three elderly male speakers. Regarding the consonants, there are detailed observations on the features typically associated with the linguistic varieties examined: strong aspiration of unvoiced plosives, glottalization, H-dropping, L-vocalization and TH-fronting. A section on prosody provides coverage of lexical stress, rhythm and intonation. The paper takes into account up-to-date research on these phenomena, but does not deal with the most recent vowel shifts, some of which form part of Multi-cultural London English.

World Polarization in carbon emissions, potential conflict and groups: an updated revision

Typically, conflicts in world environmental negotiations are related, amongst other aspects, to the level of polarization of the countries in groups with conflicting interests. Given the predictable relationship between polarization and conflict, it would seem logical to evaluate the degree to which the distribution of countries – for example, in terms of their CO2 emissions per capita – would be structured through groups which in themselves are antagonistic, as well as their evolution over time. This paper takes the concept of polarization to explore this distribution for the period 1992-2010, looking at different analytic approaches related to the concept. Specifically, it makes a comparative evaluation of the results associated with endogenous multi-polarization measures (i.e. EGR and DER indices), exogenous measures (i.e. Z-K or multidimensional index) and strict bipolarization measures (i.e. Wolfson’s measure). Indeed, the interest lies not only in evaluating the global situation of polarization by comparing the different approaches and their temporal patterns, but also in examining the explanatory capacity of the different proxy groups used as a possible reference for designing global environmental policy from a group premise. JEL codes: D39; Q43; Q56. Key words: polarization; carbon emissions; conflict;

Construction of an index of information from clinical practice in Radiology and Imaging Diagnosis based on text mining and thesaurus

Objective To construct a Portuguese language index of information on the practice of diagnostic radiology in order to improve the standardization of the medical language and terminology. Materials and Methods A total of 61,461 definitive reports were collected from the database of the Radiology Information System at Hospital das Clínicas – Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto (RIS/HCFMRP) as follows: 30,000 chest x-ray reports; 27,000 mammography reports; and 4,461 thyroid ultrasonography reports. The text mining technique was applied for the selection of terms, and the ANSI/NISO Z39.19-2005 standard was utilized to construct the index based on a thesaurus structure. The system was created in *html. Results The text mining resulted in a set of 358,236 (n = 100%) words. Out of this total, 76,347 (n = 21%) terms were selected to form the index. Such terms refer to anatomical pathology description, imaging techniques, equipment, type of study and some other composite terms. The index system was developed with 78,538 *html web pages. Conclusion The utilization of text mining on a radiological reports database has allowed the construction of a lexical system in Portuguese language consistent with the clinical practice in Radiology.

Courts and Courtly Cultures in Early Modern Italy and Europe: Models and Languages

This volume deals with the forms of propaganda and self-representation, through words and images, during the rise of the 'civiltà delle corti' and through processes typical of the time, such as confrontation, adaptation, competition and rivalry. This period, which marked the passage of Italian and European culture from the Middle Ages to the Renaissance, is fundamental in the development of Modern Europe, and it lasted up to the XVIII century and beyond. At the heart of many matters debated here lies the relationship between culture and politics. The formation of a 'Lombard identity', central to the Sinergia project which was the frame of the whole research and its conferences, is closely linked to this broad general context. It places the so called 'questione milanese' - above the traditional hierarchies 'Toscana oriented' - at the centre of many questions regarding Northern Italy as a whole, starting from the dissolution of the Medieval communes, through to the rise of the signorie, from the end of the XIII century and the beginning of the XIV century up to the early XVI century.

Concerted changes in N and C primary metabolism in alfalfa (Medicago sativa) under water restriction

Although the mechanisms of nodule N2 fixation in legumes are now well documented, some uncertainty remains on the metabolic consequences of water deficit. In most cases, little consideration is given to other organs and, therefore, the coordinated changes in metabolism in leaves, roots, and nodules are not well known. Here, the effect of water restriction on exclusively N2-fixing alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) plants was investigated, and proteomic, metabolomic, and physiological analyses were carried out. It is shown that the inhibition of nitrogenase activity caused by water restriction was accompanied by concerted alterations in metabolic pathways in nodules, leaves, and roots. The data suggest that nodule metabolism and metabolic exchange between plant organs nearly reached homeostasis in asparagine synthesis and partitioning, as well as the N demand from leaves. Typically, there was (i) a stimulation of the anaplerotic pathway to sustain the provision of C skeletons for amino acid (e.g. glutamate and proline) synthesis; (ii) re-allocation of glycolytic products to alanine and serine/glycine; and (iii) subtle changes in redox metabolites suggesting the implication of a slight oxidative stress. Furthermore, water restriction caused little change in both photosynthetic efficiency and respiratory cost of N2 fixation by nodules. In other words, the results suggest that under water stress, nodule metabolism follows a compromise between physiological imperatives (N demand, oxidative stress) and the lower input to sustain catabolism.

Semantic domain and grammatical class effects in the picture-word interference paradigm

The role of grammatical class in lexical access and representation is still not well understood. Grammatical effects obtained in picture-word interference experiments have been argued to show the operation of grammatical constraints during lexicalization when syntactic integration is required by the task. Alternative views hold that the ostensibly grammatical effects actually derive from the coincidence of semantic and grammatical differences between lexical candidates. We present three picture-word interference experiments conducted in Spanish. In the first two, the semantic relatedness (related or unrelated) and the grammatical class (nouns or verbs) of the target and the distracter were manipulated in an infinitive form action naming task in order to disentangle their contributions to verb lexical access. In the third experiment, a possible confound between grammatical class and semantic domain (objects or actions) was eliminated by using action-nouns as distracters. A condition in which participants were asked to name the action pictures using an inflected form of the verb was also included to explore whether the need of syntactic integration modulated the appearance of grammatical effects. Whereas action-words (nouns or verbs), but not object-nouns, produced longer reaction times irrespective of their grammatical class in the infinitive condition, only verbs slowed latencies in the inflected form condition. Our results suggest that speech production relies on the exclusion of candidate responses that do not fulfil task-pertinent criteria like membership in the appropriate semantic domain or grammatical class. Taken together, these findings are explained by a response-exclusion account of speech output. This and alternative hypotheses are discussed.

Oncobiguanides: Paracelsus" law and nonconventional routes for administering diabetobiguanides for cancer treatment

The dose makes the poison, the common motto of toxicology first expressed by Paracelsus more than 400 years ago, may effectively serve to guide potential applications for metformin and related biguanides in oncology. While Paracelsus' law for the dose-response effect has been commonly exploited for the use of some anti-cancer drugs at lower doses in non-neoplastic diseases (e.g., methotrexate), the opposite scenario also holds true; in other words, higher doses of non-oncology drugs, such as anti-diabetic biguanides, might exert direct anti-neoplastic effects. Here, we propose that, as for any drug, there is a dose range for biguanides that is without any effect, one corresponding to"diabetobiguanides" with a pharmacological effect (e.g., insulin sensitization in type 2 diabetes, prevention of insulin-dependent carcinogenesis, indirect inhibition of insulin and growth factor-dependent cancer growth) but with minimal toxicity and another corresponding to 'oncobiguanides' with pharmacological (i.e., direct and strong anticancer activity against cancer cells) as well as toxic effects. Considering that biguanides demonstrate a better safety profile than most oncology drugs in current use, we should contemplate the possibility of administering biguanides through non-conventional routes (e.g., inhaled for carcinomas of the lung, topical for skin cancers, intravenous as an adjunctive therapy, rectal suppositories for rectal cancer) to unambiguously investigate the therapeutic value of high-dose transient biguanide exposure in cancer. Perhaps then, the oncobiguanides, as we call them here, could be viewed as a mechanistically different type of anti-cancer drugs employed at doses notably higher than those used chronically when functioning as diabetobiguanides

Maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland in 2007 and in 2015

The Gulf of Finland is said to be one of the densest operated sea areas in the world. It is a shallow and economically vulnerable sea area with dense passenger and cargo traffic of which petroleum transports have a share of over 50 %. The winter conditions add to the risks of maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland. It is widely believed that the growth of maritime transportation will continue also in the future. The Gulf of Finland is surrounded by three very different national economies with, different maritime transportation structures. Finland is a country of high GDP/per capita with a diversified economic structure. The number of ports is large and the maritime transportation consists of many types of cargoes: raw materials, industrial products, consumer goods, coal and petroleum products, and the Russian transit traffic of e.g. new cars and consumer goods. Russia is a large country with huge growth potential; in recent years, the expansion of petroleum exports has lead to a strong economic growth, which is also apparent in the growth of maritime transports. Russia has been expanding its port activities in the Gulf of Finland and it is officially aiming to transport its own imports and exports through the Russian ports in the future; now they are being transported to great extend through the Finnish, Estonian and other Baltic ports. Russia has five ports in the Gulf of Finland. Estonia has also experienced fast economic growth, but the growth has been slowing down already during the past couples of years. The size of its economy is small compared to Russia, which means the transported tonnes cannot be very massive. However, relatively large amounts of the Russian petroleum exports have been transported through the Estonian ports. The future of the Russian transit traffic in Estonia looks nevertheless uncertain and it remains to be seen how it will develop and if Estonia is able to find replacing cargoes if the Russian transit traffic will come to an end in the Estonian ports. Estonia’s own import and export consists of forestry products, metals or other raw materials and consumer goods. Estonia has many ports on the shores of the Gulf of Finland, but the port of Tallinn dominates the cargo volumes. In 2007, 263 M tonnes of cargoes were transported in the maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland, of which the share of petroleum products was 56 %. 23 % of the cargoes were loaded or unloaded in the Finnish ports, 60 % in the Russian ports and 17 % in the Estonian ports. The largest ports were Primorsk (74.2 M tonnes) St. Petersburg (59.5 M tonnes), Tallinn (35.9 M tonnes), Sköldvik (19.8 M tonnes), Vysotsk (16.5 M tonnes) and Helsinki (13.4 M) tonnes. Approximately 53 600 ship calls were made in the ports of the Gulf of Finland. The densest traffic was found in the ports of St. Petersburg (14 651 ship calls), Helsinki (11 727 ship calls) and Tallinn (10 614 ship calls) in 2007. The transportation scenarios are usually based on the assumption that the amount of transports follows the development of the economy, although also other factors influence the development of transportation, e.g. government policy, environmental aspects, and social and behavioural trends. The relationship between the development of transportation and the economy is usually analyzed in terms of the development of GDP and trade. When the GDP grows to a certain level, especially the international transports increase because countries of high GDP produce, consume and thus transport more. An effective transportation system is also a precondition for the economic development. In this study, the following factors were taken into consideration when formulating the future scenarios: maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland 2007, economic development, development of key industries, development of infrastructure and environmental aspects in relation to maritime transportation. The basic starting points for the three alternative scenarios were: • the slow growth scenario: economic recession • the average growth scenario: economy will recover quickly from current instability • the strong growth scenario: the most optimistic views on development will realize According to the slow growth scenario, the total tonnes for the maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland would be 322.4 M tonnes in 2015, which would mean a growth of 23 % compared to 2007. In the average growth scenario, the total tonnes were estimated to be 431.6 M tonnes – a growth of 64 %, and in the strong growth scenario 507.2 M tonnes – a growth of 93%. These tonnes were further divided into petroleum products and other cargoes by country, into export, import and domestic traffic by country, and between the ports. For petroleum products, the share of crude oil and oil products was estimated and the number of tanker calls in 2015 was calculated for each scenario. However, the future development of maritime transportation in the GoF is dependent on so many societal and economic variables that it is not realistic to predict one exact point estimate value for the cargo tonnes for a certain scenario. Plenty of uncertainty is related both to the degree in which the scenario will come true as well as to the cause-effect relations between the different variables. For these reasons, probability distributions for each scenario were formulated by an expert group. As a result, a range for the total tonnes of each scenario was formulated and they are as follows: the slow growth scenario: 280.8 – 363 M tonnes (expectation value 322.4 M tonnes)