A relational approach to direct mail consumption

- Purpose This paper aims to investigate how direct mail consumption contributes to brand relationship quality. Store flyers and other direct mailings continue to play a significant role in many companies’ communication strategies. Research on this topic predominantly investigates driving store traffic and sales. Less is known regarding the consumer side, such as the value that consumers may derive from the consumption of direct mailings and the effects of such a value on brand relationship quality. To address this limitation, this paper tests a causal model of the contribution of direct mail value to brand commitment, drawing on a value framework that integrates social theory of engagement regimes and literature on experiential customer value. - Design/methodology/approach The empirical work of this paper is based on a rigorous four-study mixed methods design, involving qualitative study, confirmatory factor analysis and partial least squares structural modeling. - Findings The authors develop two second-order formatively designed scales – familiar value and planned value scales – that illustrate the role of engagement regimes in consumer behavior. Although both types of value contribute equally to direct mail attachment, they exert contrasting effects on other mediational consumer responses, such as reading and gratitude. Finally, the proposed theoretical model appears to be robust in predicting customers’ brand commitment. - Research limitations/implications This study provides new insights into the research on consumer value and brand relational communication. - Originality/value This study is the first to consider consumer benefits from the social perspective of engagement regimes.

Human error risk management methodology for rail crack incidents

The paper presents an innovative approach to modelling the causal relationships of human errors in rail crack incidents (RCI) from a managerial perspective. A Bayesian belief network is developed to model RCI by considering the human errors of designers, manufactures, operators and maintainers (DMOM) and the causal relationships involved. A set of dependent variables whose combinations express the relevant functions performed by each DMOM participant is used to model the causal relationships. A total of 14 RCI on Hong Kong’s mass transit railway (MTR) from 2008 to 2011 are used to illustrate the application of the model. Bayesian inference is used to conduct an importance analysis to assess the impact of the participants’ errors. Sensitivity analysis is then employed to gauge the effect the increased probability of occurrence of human errors on RCI. Finally, strategies for human error identification and mitigation of RCI are proposed. The identification of ability of maintainer in the case study as the most important factor influencing the probability of RCI implies the priority need to strengthen the maintenance management of the MTR system and that improving the inspection ability of the maintainer is likely to be an effective strategy for RCI risk mitigation.

Predictive technology and natural hazards: Risk for Australian planning authorities?

Purpose The object of this paper is to examine whether the improvements in technology that enhance community understanding of the frequency and severity of natural hazards also increased the risk of potential liability of planning authorities in negligence. In Australia, the National Strategy imposes a resilience based approach to disaster management and stresses that responsible land use planning can reduce or prevent the impact of natural hazards upon communities. Design/methodology/approach This paper analyses how the principles of negligence allocate responsibility for loss suffered by a landowner in a hazard prone area between the landowner and local government. Findings The analysis in this paper concludes that despite being able to establish a causal link between the loss suffered by a landowner and the approval of a local authority to build in a hazard prone area, it would be in the rarest of circumstances a negligence action may be proven. Research limitations/implications The focus of this paper is on planning policies and land development, not on the negligent provision of advice or information by the local authority. Practical implications This paper identifies the issues a landowner may face when seeking compensation from a local authority for loss suffered due to the occurrence of a natural hazard known or predicted to be possible in the area. Originality/value The paper establishes that as risk managers, local authorities must place reliance upon scientific modelling and predictive technology when determining planning processes in order to fulfil their responsibilities under the National Strategy and to limit any possible liability in negligence.

Inflammation-driven bone formation in a mouse model of ankylosing spondylitis: Sequential not parallel processes

Background Ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is an immune-mediated arthritis particularly targeting the spine and pelvis and is characterised by inflammation, osteoproliferation and frequently ankylosis. Current treatments that predominately target inflammatory pathways have disappointing efficacy in slowing disease progression. Thus, a better understanding of the causal association and pathological progression from inflammation to bone formation, particularly whether inflammation directly initiates osteoproliferation, is required. Methods The proteoglycan-induced spondylitis (PGISp) mouse model of AS was used to histopathologically map the progressive axial disease events, assess molecular changes during disease progression and define disease progression using unbiased clustering of semi-quantitative histology. PGISp mice were followed over a 24-week time course. Spinal disease was assessed using a novel semi-quantitative histological scoring system that independently evaluated the breadth of pathological features associated with PGISp axial disease, including inflammation, joint destruction and excessive tissue formation (osteoproliferation). Matrix components were identified using immunohistochemistry. Results Disease initiated with inflammation at the periphery of the intervertebral disc (IVD) adjacent to the longitudinal ligament, reminiscent of enthesitis, and was associated with upregulated tumor necrosis factor and metalloproteinases. After a lag phase, established inflammation was temporospatially associated with destruction of IVDs, cartilage and bone. At later time points, advanced disease was characterised by substantially reduced inflammation, excessive tissue formation and ectopic chondrocyte expansion. These distinct features differentiated affected mice into early, intermediate and advanced disease stages. Excessive tissue formation was observed in vertebral joints only if the IVD was destroyed as a consequence of the early inflammation. Ectopic excessive tissue was predominantly chondroidal with chondrocyte-like cells embedded within collagen type II- and X-rich matrix. This corresponded with upregulation of mRNA for cartilage markers Col2a1, sox9 and Comp. Osteophytes, though infrequent, were more prevalent in later disease. Conclusions The inflammation-driven IVD destruction was shown to be a prerequisite for axial disease progression to osteoproliferation in the PGISp mouse. Osteoproliferation led to vertebral body deformity and fusion but was never seen concurrent with persistent inflammation, suggesting a sequential process. The findings support that early intervention with anti-inflammatory therapies will be needed to limit destructive processes and consequently prevent progression of AS.

Spatial ecology of an oak-associated herbivore community : A metacommunity of herbivores

Habitat fragmentation is currently affecting many species throughout the world. As a consequence, an increasing number of species are structured as metapopulations, i.e. as local populations connected by dispersal. While excellent studies of metapopulations have accumulated over the past 20 years, the focus has recently shifted from single species to studies of multiple species. This has created the concept of metacommunities, where local communities are connected by the dispersal of one or several of their member species. To understand this higher level of organisation, we need to address not only the properties of single species, but also establish the importance of interspecific interactions. However, studies of metacommunities are so far heavily biased towards laboratory-based systems, and empirical data from natural systems are urgently needed. My thesis focuses on a metacommunity of insect herbivores on the pedunculate oak Quercus robur a tree species known for its high diversity of host-specific insects. Taking advantage of the amenability of this system to both observational and experimental studies, I quantify and compare the importance of local and regional factors in structuring herbivore communities. Most importantly, I contrast the impact of direct and indirect competition, host plant genotype and local adaptation (i.e. local factors) to that of regional processes (as reflected by the spatial context of the local community). As a key approach, I use general theory to generate testable hypotheses, controlled experiments to establish causal relations, and observational data to validate the role played by the pinpointed processes in nature. As the central outcome of my thesis, I am able to relegate local forces to a secondary role in structuring oak-based insect communities. While controlled experiments show that direct competition does occur among both conspecifics and heterospecifics, that indirect interactions can be mediated by both the host plant and the parasitoids, and that host plant genotype may affect local adaptation, the size of these effects is much smaller than that of spatial context. Hence, I conclude that dispersal between habitat patches plays a prime role in structuring the insect community, and that the distribution and abundance of the target species can only be understood in a spatial framework. By extension, I suggest that the majority of herbivore communities are dependent on the spatial structure of their landscape and urge fellow ecologists working on other herbivore systems to either support or refute my generalization.

Ethical Values and the Integrity of the Climate Change Regime

This book investigates the ethical values that inform the global carbon integrity system, and reflects on alternative norms that could or should do so. The global carbon integrity system comprises the emerging international architecture being built to respond to the climate change. This architecture can be understood as an 'integrity system'- an inter-related set of institutions, governance arrangements, regulations and practices that work to ensure the system performs its role faithfully and effectively. This volume investigates the ways ethical values impact on where and how the integrity system works, where it fails, and how it can be improved. With a wide array of perspectives across many disciplines, including ethicists, philosophers, lawyers, governance experts and political theorists, the chapters seek to explore the positive values driving the global climate change processes, to offer an understanding of the motivations justifying the creation of the regime and the way that social norms impact upon the operation of the integrity system. The collection focuses on the nexus between ideal ethics and real-world implementation through institutions and laws. The book will be of interest to policy makers, climate change experts, carbon taxation regulators, academics, legal practitioners and researchers.

Molecular Characterization of Sclerospora graminicola, the Incitant of Pearl Millet Downy Mildew Using ISSR Markers

The DNA polymorphism among 22 isolates of Sclerospora graminicola, the causal agent of downy mildew disease of pearl millet was assessed using 20 inter simple sequence repeats (ISSR) primers. The objective of the study was to examine the effectiveness of using ISSR markers for unravelling the extent and pattern of genetic diversity in 22 S. graminicola isolates collected from different host cultivars in different states of India. The 19 functional ISSR primers generated 410 polymorphic bands and revealed 89% polymorphism and were able to distinguish all the 22 isolates. Polymorphic bands used to construct an unweighted pair group method of averages (UPGMA) dendrogram based on Jaccard's co-efficient of similarity and principal coordinate analysis resulted in the formation of four major clusters of 22 isolates. The standardized Nei genetic distance among the 22 isolates ranged from 0.0050 to 0.0206. The UPGMA clustering using the standardized genetic distance matrix resulted in the identification of four clusters of the 22 isolates with bootstrap values ranging from 15 to 100. The 3D-scale data supported the UPGMA results, which resulted into four clusters amounting to 70% variation among each other. However, comparing the two methods show that sub clustering by dendrogram and multi dimensional scaling plot is slightly different. All the S. graminicola isolates had distinct ISSR genotypes and cluster analysis origin. The results of ISSR fingerprints revealed significant level of genetic diversity among the isolates and that ISSR markers could be a powerful tool for fingerprinting and diversity analysis in fungal pathogens.

Managing uncertainty to improve the cost performance of complex infrastructure projects

There has been a recent spate of high profile infrastructure cost overruns in Australia and internationally. This is just the tip of a longer-term and more deeply-seated problem with initial budget estimating practice, well recognised in both academic research and industry reviews: the problem of uncertainty. A case study of the Sydney Opera House is used to identify and illustrate the key causal factors and system dynamics of cost overruns. It is conventionally the role of risk management to deal with such uncertainty, but the type and extent of the uncertainty involved in complex projects is shown to render established risk management techniques ineffective. This paper considers a radical advance on current budget estimating practice which involves a particular approach to statistical modelling complemented by explicit training in estimating practice. The statistical modelling approach combines the probability management techniques of Savage, which operate on actual distributions of values rather than flawed representations of distributions, and the data pooling technique of Skitmore, where the size of the reference set is optimised. Estimating training employs particular calibration development methods pioneered by Hubbard, which reduce the bias of experts caused by over-confidence and improve the consistency of subjective decision-making. A new framework for initial budget estimating practice is developed based on the combined statistical and training methods, with each technique being explained and discussed.

The effects of height and BMI on prostate cancer incidence and mortality: A Mendelian randomization study in 20,848 cases and 20,214 controls from the PRACTICAL consortium

Background Epidemiological studies suggest a potential role for obesity and determinants of adult stature in prostate cancer risk and mortality, but the relationships described in the literature are complex. To address uncertainty over the causal nature of previous observational findings, we investigated associations of height- and adiposity-related genetic variants with prostate cancer risk and mortality. Methods We conducted a case–control study based on 20,848 prostate cancers and 20,214 controls of European ancestry from 22 studies in the PRACTICAL consortium. We constructed genetic risk scores that summed each man’s number of height and BMI increasing alleles across multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms robustly associated with each phenotype from published genome-wide association studies. Results The genetic risk scores explained 6.31 and 1.46 % of the variability in height and BMI, respectively. There was only weak evidence that genetic variants previously associated with increased BMI were associated with a lower prostate cancer risk (odds ratio per standard deviation increase in BMI genetic score 0.98; 95 % CI 0.96, 1.00; p = 0.07). Genetic variants associated with increased height were not associated with prostate cancer incidence (OR 0.99; 95 % CI 0.97, 1.01; p = 0.23), but were associated with an increase (OR 1.13; 95 % CI 1.08, 1.20) in prostate cancer mortality among low-grade disease (p heterogeneity, low vs. high grade <0.001). Genetic variants associated with increased BMI were associated with an increase (OR 1.08; 95 % CI 1.03, 1.14) in all-cause mortality among men with low-grade disease (p heterogeneity = 0.03). Conclusions We found little evidence of a substantial effect of genetically elevated height or BMI on prostate cancer risk, suggesting that previously reported observational associations may reflect common environmental determinants of height or BMI and prostate cancer risk. Genetically elevated height and BMI were associated with increased mortality (prostate cancer-specific and all-cause, respectively) in men with low-grade disease, a potentially informative but novel finding that requires replication.

Bauer Method of MVDR Spectral Factorization for Pitch Modification in the Source Domain

In our earlier work [1], we employed MVDR (minimum variance distortionless response) based spectral estimation instead of modified-linear prediction method [2] in pitch modification. Here, we use the Bauer method of MVDR spectral factorization, leading to a causal inverse filter rather than a noncausal filter setup with MVDR spectral estimation [1]. Further, this is employed to obtain source (or residual) signal from pitch synchronous speech frames. The residual signal is resampled using DCT/IDCT depending on the target pitch scale factor. Finally, forward filters realized from the above factorization are used to get pitch modified speech. The modified speech is evaluated subjectively by 10 listeners and mean opinion scores (MOS) are tabulated. Further, modified bark spectral distortion measure is also computed for objective evaluation of performance. We find that the proposed algorithm performs better compared to time domain pitch synchronous overlap [3] and modified-LP method [2]. A good MOS score is achieved with the proposed algorithm compared to [1] with a causal inverse and forward filter setup.

Edge of Danger: electric light and the negotiation of public and private domestic space in Philip Johnson's Glass and Guest House

In the first half of the twentieth century the dematerializing of boundaries between enclosure and exposure problematized traditional expectations of the domestic environment. At the same time, as a space of escalating technological control, the modern domestic interior also offered new potential to redefine the meaning and means of habitation. The inherent tension between these opposing forces is particularly evident in the introduction of new electric lighting technology and applications into the modern domestic interior in the mid-twentieth century. Addressing this nexus of technology and domestic psychology, this article examines the critical role of electric lighting in regulating and framing both the public and private occupation of Philip Johnson's New Canaan estate. Exploring the dialectically paired transparent Glass House and opaque Guest House, this study illustrates how Johnson employed electric light to negotiate the visual environment of the estate as well as to help sustain a highly aestheticized domestic lifestyle. Contextualized within the existing literature, this analysis provides a more nuanced understanding of the New Canaan estate as an expression of Johnson's interests as a designer as well as a subversion of traditional suburban conventions.

Relationship between annual rainfall and tree mortality in a tropical dry forest: Results of a 19-year study at Mudumalai, southern India

Variability in rainfall is known to be a major influence on the dynamics of tropical forests, especially rates and patterns of tree mortality. In tropical dry forests a number of contributing factors to tree mortality, including dry season fire and herbivory by large herbivorous mammals, could be related to rainfall patterns, while loss of water potential in trees during the dry season or a wet season drought could also result in enhanced rates of death. While tree mortality as influenced by severe drought has been examined in tropical wet forests there is insufficient understanding of this process in tropical dry forests. We examined these causal factors in relation to inter-annual differences in rainfall in causing tree mortality within a 50-ha Forest Dynamics Plot located in the tropical dry deciduous forests of Mudumalai, southern India, that has been monitored annually since 1988. Over a 19-year period (1988-2007) mean annual mortality rate of all stems >1 cm dbh was 6.9 +/- 4.6% (range = 1.5-17.5%); mortality rates broadly declined from the smaller to the larger size classes with the rates in stems >30 cm dbh being among the lowest recorded in tropical forest globally. Fire was the main agent of mortality in stems 1-5 cm dbh, elephant-herbivory in stems 5-10 cm dbh, and other natural causes in stems > 10 cm dbh. Elephant-related mortality did not show any relationship to rainfall. On the other hand, fire-related mortality was significantly negatively correlated to quantity of rainfall during the preceding year. Mortality due to other causes in the larger stem sizes was significantly negatively correlated to rainfall with a 2-3-year lag, suggesting that water deficit from mild or prolonged drought enhanced the risk of death but only with a time lag that was greater than similar lags in tree mortality observed in other forest types. In this respect, tropical dry forests growing in regions of high rainfall variability may have evolved greater resistance to rainfall deficit as compared to tropical moist or temperate forests but are still vulnerable to drought-related mortality.

Suicidal ideation and attempts among psychiatric patients with major depressive disorder

This study is part of an ongoing collaborative research and development project, the Vantaa Depression Study (VDS), between the National Public Health Institute, Helsinki and the Department of Psychiatry of Helsinki University Hospital (HUCH), Peijas hospital, Vantaa. The VDS is a prospective, naturalistic cohort study of 269 secondary-level care psychiatric out- and inpatients with a new episode of DSM-IV major depressive disorder (MDD). 269 patients (Nmales=72, Nfemales=197) with a current DSM-IV MDD were interviewed with semistructured interviews to assess all other psychiatric diagnoses. At 6- and 18-month follow-up the interviews were repeated. Suicidal behaviour was investigated both at intake and follow-up by using a psychometric scale (Scale for Suicidal Ideation) and interviewer's questions as well as the patient's psychiatric records. Patients, who reported suicidal ideation while entering the study were followed up weekly, and their level of suicidal ideation, hopelessness, anxiety and depression was measured. In this study suicidal ideation was common among psychiatric patients with MDD. Almost 60% of the depressed patients reported suicidal ideation and 15% of patients attempted suicide at the baseline. Patients with suicidal ideation or attempts had a clearly higher level of overall psychopathology than non-suicidal patients. During the 18-month follow-up period 8% of patients attempted suicide. The risk of an attempt was markedly higher (RR=7.54) during an episode of major depression compared with a period of remission. Suicide attempt during the follow-up period was predicted by lack of partner, a history of previous suicide attempts and time spent in depression. Suicidal ideation resolved for most of the suicidal patients during the first 2 to 3 months. The duration of suicidal ideation was longer for patients with an initially higher level of psychopathology. Declines both in depression and hopelessness independently predicted the subsequent decline in suicidal ideation. They both could have a causal role in reversing the suicidal process. Thus effective treatment of depression is a credible measure in suicide prevention. Patients with suicidal behaviour often received more antidepressants and had more frequent appointments with mental health professionals than non-suicidal patients. Suicidal patients had also more favourable attitudes towards antidepressant treatment and comparable adherence to treatment than those not suicidal. This study does not support the conception that patient attitudes or adherence to treatments would be a factor differentiating suicidal patients from non-suicidal. Instead, problems with adherence or attitudes seem to be generic to all psychiatric care.

Photobiomodulation by Low Power Laser Irradiation Involves Activation of Latent TGF-β1

Laser mediated stimulation of biological process was amongst its very first effects documented by Mester et al. but the ambiguous and tissue-cell context specific biological effects of laser radiation is now termed ‘Photobiomodulation’. We found many parallels between the reported biological effects of lasers and a multiface-ted growth factor, Transforming Growth Factor-β (TGF-β). This review outlines the interestingparallelsbetween the twofieldsand our rationalefor pursuingtheir potential causal correlation. We explored this correlation using an in vitro assay systems and a human clinical trial on healing wound extraction sockets that we reported in a recent publication. In conclusion we report that low power laser irradiation can activate latent TGF-β1 and β3 complexes and suggest that this might be one of the major modes of the photobiomodulatory effects of low power lasers.

Growing Up Vietnamese in Finland - Looking Back 12 Years Later : The Well-Being and Sociocultural Adaptation of Vietnamese as Children or Adolescents and as Young Adults

Varttuminen vietnamilaisena Suomessa: 12 vuoden seurantajakso – Vietnamilaisten hyvinvointi ja sosiokulttuurinen sopeutuminen lapsena/nuorena sekä nuorena aikuisena Tämä tutkimus oli määrällinen pitkittäistutkimus lapsena tai nuorena vuosina 1979-1991 Suomeen saapuneiden vietnamilaisten akkulturaatiosta (kulttuurin muutoksista), psyykkisestä hyvinvoinnista ja sosiokulttuurisesta sopeutumisesta. Tutkimukseen osallistui ensimmäisessä vaiheessa (vuonna 1992) 97 satunnaisesti valittua vietnamilaista peruskoululaista ympäri maata, joita verrattin suomalaisiin luokkatovereihin. Seurantavaiheeseen (vuonna 2004) osallistui 59 ensimmäisessä vaiheessa mukana ollutta vietnamilaista, nyt iältään 20 – 31 -vuotiaita. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää mitkä tekijät ennustivat akkulturaation lopputuloksia, samalla huomioiden iän ja ympäristön (kontekstin) vaikutukset psyykkiseen hyvinvointiin ja sosiokulttuuriseen sopeutumiseen. Yksittäiset akkulturaatiodimensiot (kieli, arvot ja identiteetti) osoittautuivat tärkeämmiksi psyykkiselle hyvinvoinnille ja sosiokulttuuriselle sopeutumiselle kuin etniset, kansalliset tai kaksikulttuuriset profiilit, joissa yhdistyivät ao. kieli, arvot ja identiteetti. Identiteettimuutosta tapahtui (etniseen) vietnamilaiseen suuntaan ajan kuluessa, kun taas arvomuutosta tapahtui (kansalliseen) suomalaiseen suuntaan. Sekä suomen että vietnamin kielen taito lisääntyivät ajan myötä, millä oli myönteisiä vaikutuksia sekä psyykkiseen hyvinvointiin että sosiokulttuuriseen sopeutumiseen. Lähtötilanteen psyykkinen hyvinvointi ennusti hyvinvointia (masennuksen puutetta ja itsetuntoa) aikuisena, mutta sosiokulttuurinen sopeutuminen (koulumenestys) lapsena tai nuorena ei ennustanut kouluttautumista aikuisena. Parempi suomen kielen taito ja vähemmän identifioitumista suomalaiseksi aikuisena sekä masentuneisuuden puute ja vähemmän koettua syrjintää lapsena tai nuorena erottelivat psyykkisesti paremmin voivat aikuiset (ei-masentuneet) heistä, jotka olivat masentuneita. Parempaa kouluttautumista aikuisena ennustivat toisaalta vähemmän koettua syrjintää lapsena tai nuorena ja toisaalta aikuisena parempi suomen kielen taito, suurempi kansallisten (suomalaisten) itsenäisyysarvojen kannattaminen, mutta kuitenkin vähemmän identifioitumista suomalaisiin. Koetun syrjinnän merkitys psyykkiselle hyvinvoinnille, erityisesti lapsena tai nuorena, sekä sen pitkäaikaisvaikutukset psyykkiselle hyvinvoinnille ja sosiokulttuuriselle sopeutumiselle aikuisena osoittavat tarpeen puuttua varhain psyykkisiin ongelmiin sekä parantaa etnisten ryhmien välisiä suhteita. Avainsanat: akkulturaatio, psyykkinen hyvinvointi, sosiokultuurinen sopeutuminen, kieli, arvot, identiteetti, vietnamilainen, Suomi, lapset, nuoret, nuoret aikuiset