Volatility forecasting with range models: An evaluation of new alternatives to the CARR model

The aim of this paper is to analyze the forecasting ability of the CARR model proposed by Chou (2005) using the S&P 500. We extend the data sample, allowing for the analysis of different stock market circumstances and propose the use of various range estimators in order to analyze their forecasting performance. Our results show that there are two range-based models that outperform the forecasting ability of the GARCH model. The Parkinson model is better for upward trends and volatilities which are higher and lower than the mean while the CARR model is better for downward trends and mean volatilities.

Leptonic CP violation

Several topics on CP violation in the lepton sector are reviewed. A few theoretical aspects concerning neutrino masses, leptonic mixing, and CP violation will be covered, with special emphasis on seesaw models. A discussion is provided on observable effects which are manifest in the presence of CP violation, particularly, in neutrino oscillations and neutrinoless double beta decay processes, and their possible implications in collider experiments such as the LHC. The role that leptonic CP violation may have played in the generation of the baryon asymmetry of the Universe through the mechanism of leptogenesis is also discussed.

The condensation and ordering of models of empty liquids

We consider a simple model consisting of particles with four bonding sites ("patches"), two of type A and two of type B, on the square lattice, and investigate its global phase behavior by simulations and theory. We set the interaction between B patches to zero and calculate the phase diagram as the ratio between the AB and the AA interactions, epsilon(AB)*, varies. In line with previous work, on three-dimensional off-lattice models, we show that the liquid-vapor phase diagram exhibits a re-entrant or "pinched" shape for the same range of epsilon(AB)*, suggesting that the ratio of the energy scales - and the corresponding empty fluid regime - is independent of the dimensionality of the system and of the lattice structure. In addition, the model exhibits an order-disorder transition that is ferromagnetic in the re-entrant regime. The use of low-dimensional lattice models allows the simulation of sufficiently large systems to establish the nature of the liquid-vapor critical points and to describe the structure of the liquid phase in the empty fluid regime, where the size of the "voids" increases as the temperature decreases. We have found that the liquid-vapor critical point is in the 2D Ising universality class, with a scaling region that decreases rapidly as the temperature decreases. The results of simulations and theoretical analysis suggest that the line of order-disorder transitions intersects the condensation line at a multi-critical point at zero temperature and density, for patchy particle models with a re-entrant, empty fluid, regime. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3657406]

Supporting leadership development by exposure to role models: two case studies

The idiomatic expression “In Rome be a Roman” can be applied to leadership training and development as well. Leaders who can act as role models inspire other future leaders in their behaviour, attitudes and ways of thinking. Based on two examples of current leaders in the fields of Politics and Public Administration, I support the idea that exposure to role models during their training was decisive for their career paths and current activities as prominent characters in their profession. Issues such as how students should be prepared for community or national leadership as well as cross-cultural engagement are raised here. The hypothesis of transculturalism and cross-cultural commitment as a factor of leadership is presented. Based on current literature on Leadership as well as the presented case studies, I expect to raise a debate focusing on strategies for improving leaders’ training in their cross-cultural awareness.

The expression of tubulin cofactor A (TBCA) is regulated by a noncoding antisense Tbca RNA during testis maturation

Abstract - Recently, long noncoding RNAs have emerged as pivotal molecules for the regulation of coding genes' expression. These molecules might result from antisense transcription of functional genes originating natural antisense transcripts (NATs) or from transcriptional active pseudogenes. TBCA interacts with β-tubulin and is involved in the folding and dimerization of new tubulin heterodimers, the building blocks of microtubules. Methodology/Principal findings: We found that the mouse genome contains two structurally distinct Tbca genes located in chromosomes 13 (Tbca13) and 16 (Tbca16). Interestingly, the two Tbca genes albeit ubiquitously expressed, present differential expression during mouse testis maturation. In fact, as testis maturation progresses Tbca13 mRNA levels increase progressively, while Tbca16 mRNA levels decrease. This suggests a regulatory mechanism between the two genes and prompted us to investigate the presence of the two proteins. However, using tandem mass spectrometry we were unable to identify the TBCA16 protein in testis extracts even in those corresponding to the maturation step with the highest levels of Tbca16 transcripts. These puzzling results led us to re-analyze the expression of Tbca16. We then detected that Tbca16 transcription produces sense and natural antisense transcripts. Strikingly, the specific depletion by RNAi of these transcripts leads to an increase of Tbca13 transcript levels in a mouse spermatocyte cell line. Conclusions/Significance: Our results demonstrate that Tbca13 mRNA levels are post-transcriptionally regulated by the sense and natural antisense Tbca16 mRNA levels. We propose that this regulatory mechanism operates during spermatogenesis, a process that involves microtubule rearrangements, the assembly of specific microtubule structures and requires critical TBCA levels.

Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

Leptonic mixing, family symmetries, and neutrino phenomenology

Tribimaximal leptonic mixing is a mass-independent mixing scheme consistent with the present solar and atmospheric neutrino data. By conveniently decomposing the effective neutrino mass matrix associated to it, we derive generic predictions in terms of the parameters governing the neutrino masses. We extend this phenomenological analysis to other mass-independent mixing schemes which are related to the tribimaximal form by a unitary transformation. We classify models that produce tribimaximal leptonic mixing through the group structure of their family symmetries in order to point out that there is often a direct connection between the group structure and the phenomenological analysis. The type of seesaw mechanism responsible for neutrino masses plays a role here, as it restricts the choices of family representations and affects the viability of leptogenesis. We also present a recipe to generalize a given tribimaximal model to an associated model with a different mass-independent mixing scheme, which preserves the connection between the group structure and phenomenology as in the original model. This procedure is explicitly illustrated by constructing toy models with the transpose tribimaximal, bimaximal, golden ratio, and hexagonal leptonic mixing patterns.

Mass spectrometry improvement on an high current ion implanter

The development of accurate mass spectrometry, enabling the identification of all the ions extracted from the ion source in a high current implanter is described. The spectrometry system uses two signals (x-y graphic), one proportional to the magnetic field (x-axes), taken from the high-voltage potential with an optic fiber system, and the other proportional to the beam current intensity (y-axes), taken from a beam-stop. The ion beam mass register in a mass spectrum of all the elements magnetically analyzed with the same radius and defined by a pair of analyzing slits as a function of their beam intensity is presented. The developed system uses a PC to control the displaying of the extracted beam mass spectrum, and also recording of all data acquired for posterior analysis. The operator uses a LabView code that enables the interfacing between an I/O board and the ion implanter. The experimental results from an ion implantation experiment are shown. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Geometric picture of generalized-CP and Higgs-family transformations in the two-Higgs-doublet model

In the two-Higgs-doublet model (THDM), generalized-CP transformations (phi(i) -> X-ij phi(*)(j) where X is unitary) and unitary Higgs-family transformations (phi(i) -> U-ij phi(j)) have recently been examined in a series of papers. In terms of gauge-invariant bilinear functions of the Higgs fields phi(i), the Higgs-family transformations and the generalized-CP transformations possess a simple geometric description. Namely, these transformations correspond in the space of scalar-field bilinears to proper and improper rotations, respectively. In this formalism, recent results relating generalized CP transformations with Higgs-family transformations have a clear geometric interpretation. We will review what is known regarding THDM symmetries, as well as derive new results concerning those symmetries, namely how they can be interpreted geometrically as applications of several CP transformations.

Análogos do neuropéptido Y marcados com 99mTc para detecção de receptores Y1 expressos no cancro da mama

Mestrado em Medicina Nuclear. Área de especialização: Radiofarmácia.

A marcha humana: uma abordagem biomecânica

A análise biomecânica da marcha engloba, entre outros, dados cinemáticos, cinéticos e sinais electromiográficos, que, em conjunto, promovem a descrição do fenómeno da marcha. Neste trabalho é efectuada uma revisão dos estudos existentes que versam sobre os aspectos biomecânicos da marcha, de forma a perceber-se os componentes a ter em consideração na referida análise, bem como os modelos comuns que suportam achados experimentais. A análise efectuada permitiu verificar que a necessidade de redirecção da velocidade do centro de massa entre passos prediz um forte componente do dispêndio energético na marcha e que este, por sua vez, está associado à velocidade.

Impact of maritime air mass trajectories on the Western European coast urban aerosol

Lisbon is the largest urban area in the Western European coast. Due to this geographical position the Atlantic Ocean serves as an important source of particles and plays an important role in many atmospheric processes. The main objectives of this study were to (1) perform a chemical characterization of particulate matter (PM2.5) sampled in Lisbon, (2) identify the main sources of particles, (3) determine PM contribution to this urban area, and (4) assess the impact of maritime air mass trajectories on concentration and composition of respirable PM sampled in Lisbon. During 2007, PM2.5 was collected on a daily basis in the center of Lisbon with a Partisol sampler. The exposed Teflon filters were measured by gravimetry and cut into two parts: one for analysis by instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA) and the other by ion chromatography (IC). Principal component analysis (PCA) and multilinear regression analysis (MLRA) were used to identify possible sources of PM2.5 and determine mass contribution. Five main groups of sources were identified: secondary aerosols, traffic, calcium, soil, and sea. Four-day backtracking trajectories ending in Lisbon at the starting sampling time were calculated using the HYSPLIT model. Results showed that maritime transport scenarios were frequent. These episodes were characterized by a significant decrease of anthropogenic aerosol concentrations and exerted a significant role on air quality in this urban area.

Dynamical analysis in growth models: Blumberg’s equation

We present a new dynamical approach to the Blumberg's equation, a family of unimodal maps. These maps are proportional to Beta(p, q) probability densities functions. Using the symmetry of the Beta(p, q) distribution and symbolic dynamics techniques, a new concept of mirror symmetry is defined for this family of maps. The kneading theory is used to analyze the effect of such symmetry in the presented models. The main result proves that two mirror symmetric unimodal maps have the same topological entropy. Different population dynamics regimes are identified, when the intrinsic growth rate is modified: extinctions, stabilities, bifurcations, chaos and Allee effect. To illustrate our results, we present a numerical analysis, where are demonstrated: monotonicity of the topological entropy with the variation of the intrinsic growth rate, existence of isentropic sets in the parameters space and mirror symmetry.

An Extension of Gompertzian Growth Dynamics Weibull and Frechet Models

In this work a new probabilistic and dynamical approach to an extension of the Gompertz law is proposed. A generalized family of probability density functions, designated by Beta* (p, q), which is proportional to the right hand side of the Tsoularis-Wallace model, is studied. In particular, for p = 2, the investigation is extended to the extreme value models of Weibull and Frechet type. These models, described by differential equations, are proportional to the hyper-Gompertz growth model. It is proved that the Beta* (2, q) densities are a power of betas mixture, and that its dynamics are determined by a non-linear coupling of probabilities. The dynamical analysis is performed using techniques of symbolic dynamics and the system complexity is measured using topological entropy. Generally, the natural history of a malignant tumour is reflected through bifurcation diagrams, in which are identified regions of regression, stability, bifurcation, chaos and terminus.

Analysis of six fungicides and one acaricide in still and fortified wines using solid-phase microextraction-gas chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry

A multiresidue gas chromatographic method for the determination of six fungicides (captan, chlorthalonil, folpet, iprodione, procymidone and vinclozolin) and one acaricide (dicofol) in still and fortified wines was developed. Solid-phase microextraction (SPME) was chosen for the extraction of the compounds from the studied matrices and tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) detection was used. The extraction consists in a solvent free and automated procedure and the detection is highly sensitive and selective. Good linearity was obtained with correlation coefficients of regression (R2) > 0.99 for all the compounds. Satisfactory results of repeatability and intermediate precision were obtained for most of the analytes (RSD < 20%). Recoveries from spiked wine ranged from 80.1% to 112.0%. Limits of quantification (LOQs) were considerably below the proposedmaximumresidue limits (MRLs) for these compounds in grapes and below the suggested limits for wine (MRLs/10), with the exception of captan.