Integração espacial e eficiência do hedge no mercado sul-americano de soja: comparações entre Brasil e Argentina

Este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar o potencial de desenvolvimento do contrato futuro de soja no Brasil, por meio da atração de hedgers brasileiros e argentinos. Para tanto, faz-se necessário conhecer os padrões das conexões dos preços entre as regiões analisadas. Nesse sentido, o Capítulo 2 investigou a integração espacial do mercado físico de soja no Brasil (região de Sorriso, no Mato Grosso) e na Argentina (região de Rosário, na província de Santa Fé) e comparou ao grau de integração com os Estados Unidos. Foram empregados modelos autorregressivos com threshold (TAR e M-TAR) e modelos vetoriais de correção de erros, lineares e com threshold (VECM e TVECM), visando captar os efeitos dos custos de transação sobre a integração espacial entre essas regiões. Os resultados apontaram que o mercado de soja brasileiro, argentino e norte-americano são integrados, mesmo considerando-se os efeitos dos custos de transação sobre as decisões de arbitragem espacial. Consequentemente, os preços da soja no mercado internacional tendem a refletir o comportamento dos principais países produtores. Apesar disso, o tempo de transmissão de choques de preços mostrou-se, em geral, menor entre Brasil e Argentina, refletindo a proximidade geográfica. Apontou-se também o comportamento assimétrico da transmissão desses choques, uma vez que choques positivos sobre a relação de longo prazo tendem a ser mais persistentes que os negativos. Se o contrato futuro reflete o comportamento de preços de um único mercado físico integrado, deve-se então esperar que o risco de base seja menor para este mercado e, portanto, que a eficiência do hedge seja maior. No Capítulo 3, o objetivo se constituiu em verificar se há maior eficiência no hedge realizado com os contratos com vencimento em março na CME em relação à BM&FBOVESPA, considerando-se as relações de longo prazo entre os preços à vista e futuros, bem como a dinâmica na estrutura de covariâncias condicionais, por meio de modelos de correção de erros (VECM) e modelos de heterocedasticidade condicional generalizados com correlação condicional dinâmica (DCC-GARCH). Os resultados mostraram que, em geral, a introdução da dinâmica nos segundos momentos das distribuições dos erros tende a aumentar a eficiência da estratégia de hedge. Além disso, foi observado que os produtores de Sorriso tendem a obter melhores condições de hedge na CME, embora haja redução da variância ao se operar na BM&FBOVESPA. Por outro lado, a eficiência do hedge para os produtores de Rosário foi significativamente maior na BM&FBOVESPA do que na CME, o que indica o mercado potencial de hedgers argentinos para negociar o contrato futuro de soja local no Brasil.

MODELOS DE GOVERNANÇA DE TECNOLOGIA DA INFORMAÇÃO ADOTADOS NO BRASIL - UM ESTUDO DE CASOS MÚLTIPLOS

O tema Governança de Tecnologia da Informação (GTI) tornou-se mais premente no ambiente empresarial brasileiro, principalmente após as repercussões mundiais ocorridas com a queda da bolsa de valores americana Nasdaq, com a nova configuração mundial após os ataques aos Estados Unidos em 11 de setembro de 2001 e a partir da promulgação da Lei Sarbanes-Oxley em 2002. Esse modelo de gestão tem sido implementado por organizações que buscam não somente obter melhor controle de gestão em Tecnologia da Informação, como para aquelas que têm de atender às conformidades legais exigidas pelos órgãos de controle. Implementá-la é um processo complexo e desafiador em virtude da necessidade de se identificar o melhor modelo de GTI dentre as práticas existentes no mundo empresarial. As empresas precisam fazer uma composição daquelas que melhor se aderem às suas realidades. Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar os modelos de GTI adotados em organizações no Brasil, avaliar os seus resultados, seus níveis de maturidade, os seus benefícios, suas dificuldades e suas tendências, contribuindo assim para o seu melhor entendimento e para amenizar a carência de estudos nessa área no Brasil. Este estudo, que é de natureza empírica, baseou-se na metodologia de estudo de casos múltiplos realizado em cinco empresas para explorar como este modelo de gestão vem sendo adotado, quais estruturas, metodologias e práticas de mercado têm sido utilizadas para a sua efetividade. Neste contexto, apresentam-se os resultados obtidos, os aspectos que envolvem a implementação dos modelos de GTI nas organizações, as dificuldades encontradas, o que têm condicionado o seu desempenho e suas tendências.

Modelos de dispersão para extremos de precipitação. Estudo de caso: o nordeste do Brasil

In this thesis used four different methods in order to diagnose the precipitation extremes on Northeastern Brazil (NEB): Generalized Linear Model s via logistic regression and Poisson, extreme value theory analysis via generalized extre me value (GEV) and generalized Pareto (GPD) distributions and Vectorial Generalized Linea r Models via GEV (MVLG GEV). The logistic regression and Poisson models were used to identify the interactions between the precipitation extremes and other variables based on the odds ratios and relative risks. It was found that the outgoing longwave radiation was the indicator variable for the occurrence of extreme precipitation on eastern, northern and semi arid NEB, and the relative humidity was verified on southern NEB. The GEV and GPD distribut ions (based on the 95th percentile) showed that the location and scale parameters were presented the maximum on the eastern and northern coast NEB, the GEV verified a maximum core on western of Pernambuco influenced by weather systems and topography. The GEV and GPD shape parameter, for most regions the data fitted by Weibull negative an d Beta distributions (ξ < 0) , respectively. The levels and return periods of GEV (GPD) on north ern Maranhão (centerrn of Bahia) may occur at least an extreme precipitation event excee ding over of 160.9 mm /day (192.3 mm / day) on next 30 years. The MVLG GEV model found tha t the zonal and meridional wind components, evaporation and Atlantic and Pacific se a surface temperature boost the precipitation extremes. The GEV parameters show the following results: a) location ( ), the highest value was 88.26 ± 6.42 mm on northern Maran hão; b) scale ( σ ), most regions showed positive values, except on southern of Maranhão; an d c) shape ( ξ ), most of the selected regions were adjusted by the Weibull negative distr ibution ( ξ < 0 ). The southern Maranhão and southern Bahia have greater accuracy. The level period, it was estimated that the centern of Bahia may occur at least an extreme precipitatio n event equal to or exceeding over 571.2 mm/day on next 30 years.

Pesca artesanal entre mudanças socioambientais: estudo de caso na APA Bonfim-Guaraíra/RN-Brasil

Artisanal fishing is one of the important economic activities of Rio Grande do Norte (RN), becoming the main form of survival and income for many families. The southern coast of RN has strong fishing tradition, both in exploitation of fish as in the collection of mollusks on the banks of Guaraíra Lagoon (APA Bonfim-Guaraíra). In recent years, fishing communities have become more vulnerable to outside influences, since the socio-economic and environmental changes are exposed. These changes require adjustments to the fishermen to different environmental conditions, as the social and natural systems are driven by reorganization and upgrading processes. The living conditions in fishing communities are objective and necessary in different ways, according to a selection that is cultural, so adaptable. This study has the general objective to analyze the main environmental changes in fishing communities, based on the understanding of fishermen and mollusk fisherwomen about this problem. The specific objectives searched to: describe the socioeconomic profile, prospects and difficulties of fishermen and mollusk fisherwomen; investigate the major social and environmental changes in the fishing communities of Patané and Camocim (Arez/RN). The methodology was qualitative-quantitative with the techniques of observation in the field and open and semistructured interviews applied to representatives of Cologne fishing, fishermen and mollusk fisherwomen. Between the months of January to July 2014 were applied semistructured interviews with 41 interlocutors in Patané and 23 of Camocim; totaling 64 people. The results indicated that the interlocutors are aged 40 to 60 years; have only completed elementary school level; are married and have children; survive on less than a minimum wage income and they are not receiving employment insurance. The case study also revealed that the socioeconomic and environmental problems reflected in changes in reproduction, organization and social division of labor, which generates adaptive changes of families to external influences, resulting directly from other economic activities and market pressure and indirectly from tourism. Therefore, adaptations to changes scenario presented as favorable to economic aspects and unfavorable to the social and environmental aspects. In short, the fishery develops on technical, bureaucratic and financial obstacles, in the everyday needs of men and women is the determining factor in willingness to continue exercising fishing and shell fishing on Guaraíra Lagoon, space representing relations social, practices and customs transmitted in the course of local history through social memory of the oldest to the youngest.

Modelos de condutividade térmica em rochas silicáticas, com ênfase em rochas da província Borborema, NE do Brasil

A practical approach to estimate rock thermal conductivities is to use rock models based just on the observed or expected rock mineral content. In this study, we evaluate the performances of the Krischer and Esdorn (KE), Hashin and Shtrikman (HS), classic Maxwell (CM), Maxwell-Wiener (MW), and geometric mean (GM) models in reproducing the measures of thermal conductivity of crystalline rocks.We used 1,105 samples of igneous and metamorphic rocks collected in outcroppings of the Borborema Province, Northeastern Brazil. Both thermal conductivity and petrographic modal analysis (percent volumes of quartz, K-feldspar, plagioclase, and sum of mafic minerals) were done. We divided the rocks into two groups: (a) igneous and ortho-derived (or meta-igneous) rocks and (b) metasedimentary rocks. The group of igneous and ortho-derived rocks (939 samples) covers most the lithologies de_ned in the Streckeisen diagram, with higher concentrations in the fields of granite, granodiorite, and tonalite. In the group of metasedimentary rocks (166 samples), it were sampled representative lithologies, usually of low to medium metamorphic grade. We treat the problem of reproducing the measured values of rock conductivity as an inverse problem where, besides the conductivity measurements, the volume fractions of the constituent minerals are known and the effective conductivities of the constituent minerals and model parameters are unknown. The key idea was to identify the model (and its associated estimates of effective mineral conductivities and parameters) that better reproduces the measures of rock conductivity. We evaluate the model performances by the quantity  that is equal to the percentage of number of rock samples which estimated conductivities honor the measured conductivities within the tolerance of 15%. In general, for all models, the performances were quite inferior for the metasedimentary rocks (34% <  < 65%) as compared with the igneous and ortho-derived rocks (51% <  < 70%). For igneous and ortho-derived rocks, all model performances were very similar ( = 70%), except the GM-model that presented a poor performance (51% <  < 65%); the KE and HS-models ( = 70%) were slightly superior than the CM and MW-models ( = 67%). The quartz content is the dominant factor in explaining the rock conductivity for igneous and ortho-derived rocks; in particular, using the MW-model the solution is in practice vi UFRN/CCET– Dissertação de mestrado the series association of the quartz content. On the other hand, for metasedimentary rocks, model performances were different and the performance of the KEmodel ( = 65%) was quite superior than the HS ( = 53%), CM (34% <  < 42%), MW ( = 40%), and GM (35% <  < 42%). The estimated effective mineral conductivities are stable for perturbations both in the rock conductivity measures and in the quartz volume fraction. The fact that the metasedimentary rocks are richer in platy-minerals explains partially the poor model performances, because both the high thermal anisotropy of biotite (one of the most common platy-mineral) and the difficulty in obtaining polished surfaces for measurement coupling when platyminerals are present. Independently of the rock type, both very low and very high values of rock conductivities are hardly explained by rock models based just on rock mineral content.

Características bioativas, funcionais e efeito protetor do resíduo desidratado de camu-camu (Myrciaria dubia H.B.K. (McVaugh)) sobre doenças degenerativas utilizando modelos in vivo C. elegans

Camu-camu (Myrciaria dubia H.B.K. (McVaugh)) is a native Amazon fruit, recognized worldwide as one of the main natural sources of ascorbic acid. Due to its great acidity, this fruit is generally consumed after processing into juice or as ingredient in food preparations. As a co-product of the camu-camu processing, a significant amount of agroindustrial residue is generated. Despite the studies showing the bioactive value and biological potential of the fruit, few studies have approached the possible processing techniques, transformation and preservation of camu-camu fruits and its agroindustrial pomace. Therefore, the present work has the objective of evaluating two different drying processes applied to camu-camu pomace (peel and seeds with residual pulp), freeze drying and hot air drying, in order to obtain a functional fruit product. This thesis was divided into three stages: the first one shows the studies related to the freeze drying and hot air drying, where we demonstrated the impact of the selected drying techniques on the bioactive components of camu-camu, taking the fresh pomace as the control group. Among the investigated conditions, the groups obtained at 50ºC and 4 m/s (SC50) and 80ºC and 6 m/s (SC80) were selected as for further studies, based on their ascorbic acid final content and Folin-Ciocalteau reducing capacity. In addition to SC50 and SC80, the fresh pomace (RF) and freeze dried (RL) samples were also evaluated in these further stages of the research. Overall, the results show higher bioactive concentration in the RF samples, followed by RL, SC50 and SC80. On the second step of the research, the antioxidant, antimicrobial and antienzymatic activities were evaluated and the same tendency was observed. It was also reported, for the first time in the literature, the presence of syringic acid in dried camu-camu pomace. In the third and final stage of the research, it was investigated the effect of dried camu-camu on aging and neuroprotective disorders, using the in vivo model C.elegans. It was observed that camu-camu extracts were able to modulate important signaling genes relevant to thermal and oxidative stresses (p < 0.05). The polar acid, polar basic and polar neutral fractions obtained from the low molecular extracts of SC50 were able to extend the lifespan of wild type N2 C. elegans in 20% and 13% (p < 0.001). Results also showed that the paralysis induced by the β1-42 amyloid was significantly (p < 0.0001) retarded in CL4176 worms. Similarly, the camu-camu extracts attenuated the dopaminergic induction associated to Parkinson’s disease. Finally, a global analysis of the data presented here reveal that the camu-camu pomace, a co-product obtained from the industrial processing of a native Brazilian fruit, is a relevant natural source of health relevant compounds. This thesis, shows for the first time, the multifunctionality of camu-camu pomace, a natural resource still underexploited for scientific, commercial and technological purposes.

Desempenho físico em idosos com diferenciados perfis epidemiológicos: análise do estudo IMIAS International Mobility in Aging Study sob a perspectiva do curso da vida e de biomarcadores da inflamação e do estresse

O crescimento demográfico de idosos é um fenômeno mundial e exerce influência sobre o desenvolvimento e funcionamento das sociedades. Fatores sociais, econômicos, ambientais, biológicos e culturais influenciam o processo de envelhecimento, que pode vir acompanhado de contínua perda na capacidade de adaptação do indivíduo ao meio ambiente, de maior vulnerabilidade ao estresse, limitações funcionais e diminuição da qualidade de vida do indivíduo. Todavia, ao longo do curso da vida, o indivíduo vivencia múltiplas exposições adversas à saúde, e o declínio da mobilidade surge como um dos primeiros sinais do envelhecimento, repercutindo na saúde física e mental do indivíduo. Para contribuir com o conhecimento sobre os desfechos relacionados ao envelhecimento e mobilidade, o estudo IMIAS investiga idosos em quatro países com diferentes perfis epidemiológicos. O presente estudo abordou os possíveis fatores associados ao declínio físico em idosos de distintas sociedades, sobre a perspectiva epidemiológica do curso da vida e dos biomarcadores da inflamação e do estresse. Objetivos: 1) Analisar as relações entre as adversidades sociais e econômicas, vivenciadas durante a infância, a fase adulta e a velhice, com o baixo desempenho físico em populações idosas, de diferentes contextos sociais, econômicos e culturais. 2) Verificar a associação entre os níveis elevados da proteína c-reativa (PCR) com o desempenho físico em idosos de diferentes populações. 3) Avaliar se a desregulação nos níveis de cortisol diurno exerce influência sobre o desempenho físico em idosos com distintos perfis epidemiológicos. Métodos: Foram utilizados dados da linha de base do IMIAS – Estudo Internacional de Mobilidade no Envelhecimento, composto por 1.995 indivíduos entre 65 e 74 anos de idade, residentes em comunidades de quatro países (Albânia, Brasil, Canadá, Colômbia). O desempenho físico foi avaliado através do Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) e da força de preensão manual. As adversidades durante o curso da vida foram estimadas a partir de eventos e exposições sociais, econômicas e culturais ocorridas durante a infância, fase adulta e velhice. Para avaliar o percurso biológico e suas associações com a mobilidade, a proteína c-reativa e o cortisol foram considerados como biomarcadores da inflamação e do estresse, respectivamente. No sentido de responder as questões de investigações, foram conduzidas análises de estatística descritiva, bivariada e multivariada, mediante técnicas de distribuição de frequências, teste qui-quadrado, odds ratio e regressões logística, linear e multinível. Resultados: O desempenho físico foi menor nos participantes que vivem na Colômbia, Brasil e Albânia do que nos que vivem no Canadá, mesmo quando ajustados por idade, sexo e adversidades durante o curso da vida. O baixo nível de desempenho físico (SPPB < 8) foi associado a ter sofrido adversidade social e econômica na infância, ter tido ocupação semiqualificada na fase adulta, morar sozinho e possuir renda insuficiente na velhice. A PCR esteve associada com a baixa força de preensão manual e com o SPPB<8. Entretanto, a associação entre a PCR e a força de preensão manual não se manteve quando ajustada por fatores socioeconômicos e hábitos de saúde. As associações negativas entre SPPB e PCR permaneceram significativas mesmo após ajustes por idade, sexo, escolaridade, local de pesquisa e condições de saúde. O baixo desempenho físico (SPPB ≤ 8) foi associado com uma significativa diminuição nos níveis de cortisol ao acordar, em comparação com os níveis de cortisol de idosos com bom desempenho físico (SPPB > 8), mesmo após modelos controlados por local de estudo, sexo, depressão, hábitos de saúde, uso de psicotrópicos e índice de massa corporal. Conclusões: Os resultados evidenciaram associação entre a inflamação, o estresse e as desigualdades sociais e econômicas na infância, sobre o desempenho físico de idosos com diferenciados perfis epidemiológicos. Enfatizamos que a promoção do envelhecimento saudável requer considerar políticas e práticas que favoreçam o bem-estar econômico e social para crianças, adultos e idosos.

Influência das condições ambientais no verdor da vegetação da caatinga frente às mudanças climáticas

The Caatinga biome, a semi-arid climate ecosystem found in northeast Brazil, presents low rainfall regime and strong seasonality. It has the most alarming climate change projections within the country, with air temperature rising and rainfall reduction with stronger trends than the global average predictions. Climate change can present detrimental results in this biome, reducing vegetation cover and changing its distribution, as well as altering all ecosystem functioning and finally influencing species diversity. In this context, the purpose of this study is to model the environmental conditions (rainfall and temperature) that influence the Caatinga biome productivity and to predict the consequences of environmental conditions in the vegetation dynamics under future climate change scenarios. Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) was used to estimate vegetation greenness (presence and density) in the area. Considering the strong spatial and temporal autocorrelation as well as the heterogeneity of the data, various GLS models were developed and compared to obtain the best model that would reflect rainfall and temperature influence on vegetation greenness. Applying new climate change scenarios in the model, environmental determinants modification, rainfall and temperature, negatively influenced vegetation greenness in the Caatinga biome. This model was used to create potential vegetation maps for current and future of Caatinga cover considering 20% decrease in precipitation and 1 °C increase in temperature until 2040, 35% decrease in precipitation and 2.5 °C increase in temperature in the period 2041-2070 and 50% decrease in precipitation and 4.5 °C increase in temperature in the period 2071-2100. The results suggest that the ecosystem functioning will be affected on the future scenario of climate change with a decrease of 5.9% of the vegetation greenness until 2040, 14.2% until 2070 and 24.3% by the end of the century. The Caatinga vegetation in lower altitude areas (most of the biome) will be more affected by climatic changes.

Um estudo sobre a variabilidade do vento no nordeste do Brasil através de métodos estatísticos e via modelos dinâmicos de meso e micro escala

The objective of this study was to determine the seasonal and interannual variability and calculate the trends of wind speed in NEB and then validate the mesoscale numerical model for after engage with the microscale numerical model in order to get the wind resource at some locations in the NEB. For this we use two data sets of wind speed (weather stations and anemometric towers) and two dynamic models; one of mesoscale and another of microscale. We use statistical tools to evaluate and validate the data obtained. The simulations of the dynamic mesoscale model were made using data assimilation methods (Newtonian Relaxation and Kalman filter). The main results show: (i) Five homogeneous groups of wind speed in the NEB with higher values in winter and spring and with lower in summer and fall; (ii) The interannual variability of the wind speed in some groups stood out with higher values; (iii) The large-scale circulation modified by the El Niño and La Niña intensified wind speed for the groups with higher values; (iv) The trend analysis showed more significant negative values for G3, G4 and G5 in all seasons and in the annual average; (v) The performance of dynamic mesoscale model showed smaller errors in the locations Paracuru and São João and major errors were observed in Triunfo; (vi) Application of the Kalman filter significantly reduce the systematic errors shown in the simulations of the dynamic mesoscale model; (vii) The wind resource indicate that Paracuru and Triunfo are favorable areas for the generation of energy, and the coupling technique after validation showed better results for Paracuru. We conclude that the objective was achieved, making it possible to identify trends in homogeneous groups of wind behavior, and to evaluate the quality of both simulations with the dynamic model of mesoscale and microscale to answer questions as necessary before planning research projects in Wind-Energy area in the NEB

Estudo do balanço de umidade por meio de modelos regionais para o clima do passado e do futuro sobre a América do Sul

In the context of climate change over South America (SA) has been observed that the combination of high temperatures and rain more temperatures less rainfall, cause different impacts such as extreme precipitation events, favorable conditions for fires and droughts. As a result, these regions face growing threat of water shortage, local or generalized. Thus, the water availability in Brazil depends largely on the weather and its variations in different time scales. In this sense, the main objective of this research is to study the moisture budget through regional climate models (RCM) from Project Regional Climate Change Assessments for La Plata Basin (CLARIS-LPB) and combine these RCM through two statistical techniques in an attempt to improve prediction on three areas of AS: Amazon (AMZ), Northeast Brazil (NEB) and the Plata Basin (LPB) in past climates (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100). The moisture transport on AS was investigated through the moisture fluxes vertically integrated. The main results showed that the average fluxes of water vapor in the tropics (AMZ and NEB) are higher across the eastern and northern edges, thus indicating that the contributions of the trade winds of the North Atlantic and South are equally important for the entry moisture during the months of JJA and DJF. This configuration was observed in all the models and climates. In comparison climates, it was found that the convergence of the flow of moisture in the past weather was smaller in the future in various regions and seasons. Similarly, the majority of the SPC simulates the future climate, reduced precipitation in tropical regions (AMZ and NEB), and an increase in the LPB region. The second phase of this research was to carry out combination of RCM in more accurately predict precipitation, through the multiple regression techniques for components Main (C.RPC) and convex combination (C.EQM), and then analyze and compare combinations of RCM (ensemble). The results indicated that the combination was better in RPC represent precipitation observed in both climates. Since, in addition to showing values be close to those observed, the technique obtained coefficient of correlation of moderate to strong magnitude in almost every month in different climates and regions, also lower dispersion of data (RMSE). A significant advantage of the combination of methods was the ability to capture extreme events (outliers) for the study regions. In general, it was observed that the wet C.EQM captures more extreme, while C.RPC can capture more extreme dry climates and in the three regions studied.

Prevalência e fatores associados à síndrome da fragilidade em idosos: inquérito populacional em Campina Grande-PB

The frailty syndrome is a geriatric medical condition of vulnerability resulting in the decline of physiological reserves, characterized by high-risk consequences as falls, disability, hospitalization, institutionalization and death. Although the presence of comorbidities is not always accompanied by fragility, this presence could also indicate an increased risk of adverse health events, taking the elderly to a greater likelihood of becoming brittle due to the physical limitations that may occur with emergence of diseases, which are strongly predictive of Fragility Syndrome. This study aimed to assess the prevalence of frailty syndrome in the elderly and associated factors. The specific objectives were to identify the prevalence of frailty syndrome in the elderly and their associations with demographic, economic, health, functional and psychological; identify the reasons for the prevalence of frailty syndrome with the demographic profile, health problems, use of legal drugs and problems with sleep of older people. The study was cross-sectional and composed of 385 elderly aged 65 or more. Multivariate Poisson regression models were used to check conditions associated with fragility and determine the prevalence ratio (α = 0.05). The prevalence of fragility was 8.7% and pre-fragility of 50.4%. Fragile and pre-frail elderly presented, bigger and increasing prevalence ratio for marital status, difficulty in performing instrumental activities of daily living, old age, involuntary loss of stool, depression and negative affect. Elderly people who do not work have a higher prevalence of fragility, as well as those who reported having had a stroke / stroke / ischemia, those who suffered falls in the last 12 months and those with sleep problems. It is considered that the results, together with other available in the literature, can contribute to the understanding of the fragility epidemiology and also in the implementation of specific programs aimed at reducing the prevalence of frailty, optimizing the quality of life. It is suggested that future programs have special attention to the profiles of elderly people who have not yet developed fragility, i.e., pre-fragile. This could prevent the elderly from becoming frail.

Da casa grande ao condomínio fechado: o que mudou nas formas e modos de morar da família intergeracional no Nordeste e Sudeste do Brasil?

The focus of this study is to draw attention to the intergenerational family’s lifestyles and their various ways of cohabitation, in special to those families which are made by individuals of different generations, these families being constituted of, two or more individuals, or, two or more smaller families, which live under the same roof and have the elderly person as referential in their cohabitation. In those types of families, as for their ways of organization, it is interesting to note that the researches and productions done by inner architects and inner designers do not include this type of family arrangement because their studies do not cover this kind of structuralization nor was this type of organization put together with any of the ways of cohabitation. Therefore there is a theoretical concept void which is propositional, interventional and does not relate to the empirical reality. In observation to these remarks, the research starts a theoretic challenge of deconstruct or reconstruct our modern only habitational template, which is used today in all families configurations which out any regards to where this template will be used, unfitting to the intergenerational families who have elders. This study is then meant to give an differential analysis of the various domestic space’s templates in regards to the new families formats, their basic and special necessities, the home identities of those families which indicates the differential gap in housing and lifestyle from the higher social classes in comparison to the lower social classes. The interdisciplinary method was chosen in order to describe arrangements found in the lifestyles and the ways of cohabitation of the intergenerational families, this method is used for its knowledge base that better articulates the procedure method and the inductive reflexive approach made possible after an qualitative research. In order to accomplish that, an geographical space which tow real possibilities was selected, that is, the space where the people of great social and anthropological proximity are concentrated and the people which are the researcher kinships and friends, in between those are the habitants of Capim Macio’s, Candelária’s, Tirol’s and Petrópolis’s, neighborhoods, located in the south west zone of her home city Natal. It has been noticed that, meanwhile these intergenerational spaces do not claim their said spaces, because of their habits, necessities and relations in between generations and gender, their arrangements of said space are extremely creative. That means that alterations in the concepts of planning, construction and utilization of built spaces are imperative.

Da casa grande ao condomínio fechado: o que mudou nas formas e modos de morar da família intergeracional no Nordeste e Sudeste do Brasil?

The focus of this study is to draw attention to the intergenerational family’s lifestyles and their various ways of cohabitation, in special to those families which are made by individuals of different generations, these families being constituted of, two or more individuals, or, two or more smaller families, which live under the same roof and have the elderly person as referential in their cohabitation. In those types of families, as for their ways of organization, it is interesting to note that the researches and productions done by inner architects and inner designers do not include this type of family arrangement because their studies do not cover this kind of structuralization nor was this type of organization put together with any of the ways of cohabitation. Therefore there is a theoretical concept void which is propositional, interventional and does not relate to the empirical reality. In observation to these remarks, the research starts a theoretic challenge of deconstruct or reconstruct our modern only habitational template, which is used today in all families configurations which out any regards to where this template will be used, unfitting to the intergenerational families who have elders. This study is then meant to give an differential analysis of the various domestic space’s templates in regards to the new families formats, their basic and special necessities, the home identities of those families which indicates the differential gap in housing and lifestyle from the higher social classes in comparison to the lower social classes. The interdisciplinary method was chosen in order to describe arrangements found in the lifestyles and the ways of cohabitation of the intergenerational families, this method is used for its knowledge base that better articulates the procedure method and the inductive reflexive approach made possible after an qualitative research. In order to accomplish that, an geographical space which tow real possibilities was selected, that is, the space where the people of great social and anthropological proximity are concentrated and the people which are the researcher kinships and friends, in between those are the habitants of Capim Macio’s, Candelária’s, Tirol’s and Petrópolis’s, neighborhoods, located in the south west zone of her home city Natal. It has been noticed that, meanwhile these intergenerational spaces do not claim their said spaces, because of their habits, necessities and relations in between generations and gender, their arrangements of said space are extremely creative. That means that alterations in the concepts of planning, construction and utilization of built spaces are imperative.

O estado como empregador de última instância: uma proposta de pleno emprego, estabilidade e condições dignas de trabalho para o Brasil

GOMES, Z. B. ; LOURENÇO, André Luís Cabral de . Atuação do Estado como empregador de última Instância: uma proposta para eliminar o desemprego estrutural do Brasil. In: Encontro Nacional de Economia Política, 13. 2008, João Pessoa/PB. Anais... João Pessoa: ENEP, 2008.

Modelos autorregressivos com valores inteiros não negativos : aplicação em séries económicas de Cabo Verde

No estudo de séries temporais, os processos estocásticos usuais assumem que as distribuições marginais são contínuas e, em geral, não são adequados para modelar séries de contagem, pois as suas características não lineares colocam alguns problemas estatísticos, principalmente na estimação dos parâmetros. Assim, investigou-se metodologias apropriadas de análise e modelação de séries com distribuições marginais discretas. Neste contexto, Al-Osh and Alzaid (1987) e McKenzie (1988) introduziram na literatura a classe dos modelos autorregressivos com valores inteiros não negativos, os processos INAR. Estes modelos têm sido frequentemente tratados em artigos científicos ao longo das últimas décadas, pois a sua importância nas aplicações em diversas áreas do conhecimento tem despertado um grande interesse no seu estudo. Neste trabalho, após uma breve revisão sobre séries temporais e os métodos clássicos para a sua análise, apresentamos os modelos autorregressivos de valores inteiros não negativos de primeira ordem INAR (1) e a sua extensão para uma ordem p, as suas propriedades e alguns métodos de estimação dos parâmetros nomeadamente, o método de Yule-Walker, o método de Mínimos Quadrados Condicionais (MQC), o método de Máxima Verosimilhança Condicional (MVC) e o método de Quase Máxima Verosimilhança (QMV). Apresentamos também um critério automático de seleção de ordem para modelos INAR, baseado no Critério de Informação de Akaike Corrigido, AICC, um dos critérios usados para determinar a ordem em modelos autorregressivos, AR. Finalmente, apresenta-se uma aplicação da metodologia dos modelos INAR em dados reais de contagem relativos aos setores dos transportes marítimos e atividades de seguros de Cabo Verde.