LIMIT THEOREMS FOR A GENERAL STOCHASTIC RUMOUR MODEL

We study a general stochastic rumour model in which an ignorant individual has a certain probability of becoming a stifler immediately upon hearing the rumour. We refer to this special kind of stifler as an uninterested individual. Our model also includes distinct rates for meetings between two spreaders in which both become stiflers or only one does, so that particular cases are the classical Daley-Kendall and Maki-Thompson models. We prove a Law of Large Numbers and a Central Limit Theorem for the proportions of those who ultimately remain ignorant and those who have heard the rumour but become uninterested in it.

Haplotype distribution of five nuclear genes based on network genealogies and Bayesian inference indicates that Trypanosoma cruzi hybrid strains are polyphyletic

Chagas disease is still a major public health problem in Latin America. Its causative agent, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be typed into three major groups, T. cruzi I, T. cruzi II and hybrids. These groups each have specific genetic characteristics and epidemiological distributions. Several highly virulent strains are found in the hybrid group; their origin is still a matter of debate. The null hypothesis is that the hybrids are of polyphyletic origin, evolving independently from various hybridization events. The alternative hypothesis is that all extant hybrid strains originated from a single hybridization event. We sequenced both alleles of genes encoding EF-1 alpha, actin and SSU rDNA of 26 T. cruzi strains and DHFR-TS and TR of 12 strains. This information was used for network genealogy analysis and Bayesian phylogenies. We found T. cruzi I and T. cruzi II to be monophyletic and that all hybrids had different combinations of T. cruzi I and T. cruzi II haplotypes plus hybrid-specific haplotypes. Bootstrap values (networks) and posterior probabilities (Bayesian phylogenies) of clades supporting the monophyly of hybrids were far below the 95% confidence interval, indicating that the hybrid group is polyphyletic. We hypothesize that T. cruzi I and T. cruzi II are two different species and that the hybrids are extant representatives of independent events of genome hybridization, which sporadically have sufficient fitness to impact on the epidemiology of Chagas disease.

Mechanism and model of the oscillatory electro-oxidation of methanol

A mechanism for the kinetic instabilities observed in the galvanostatic electro-oxidation of methanol is suggested and a model developed. The model is investigated using stoichiometric network analysis as well as concepts from algebraic geometry (polynomial rings and ideal theory) revealing the occurrence of a Hopf and a saddle-node bifurcation. These analytical solutions are confirmed by numerical integration of the system of differential equations. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics

Molecular and morphological characterization of Amathia distans Busk and Amathia brasiliensis Busk (Bryozoa: Ctenostomata) from the tropical and subtropical Western Atlantic

Morphological and molecular analyses have proven to be complementary tools of taxonomic information for the redescription of the ctenostome bryozoans Amathia brasiliensis Busk, 1886 and Amathia distans Busk, 1886. The two species, originally described from material collected by the `Challenger` expedition but synonymized by later authors, now have their status fixed by means of the selection of lectotypes, morphological observations and analyses of DNA sequences described here. The morphological characters allowing the identification of living and/or preserved specimens are (1) A. brasiliensis: whitish-pale pigment spots in the frontal surface of stolons and zooids, and a wide stolon with biserial zooid clusters growing in clockwise and anti-clockwise spirals along it, the spirality direction being maintained from maternal to daughter stolons; and (2) A. distans: bright yellow pigment spots in stolonal and zooidal surfaces including lophophores, and a slender stolon, thickly cuticularized, with biserial zooid clusters growing in clockwise and anti-clockwise spirals along it and the spirality direction not maintained from maternal to daughter stolons. Pairwise comparisons of DNA sequences of the mitochondrial genes cytochrome c oxidase subunit I and large ribosomal RNA subunit revealed deep genetic divergence between A. brasiliensis and A. distans. Finally, analyses of those sequences within a Bayesian phylogenetic context recovered their genealogical species status.

Simulation of Soil Carbon Dynamics under Sugarcane with the CENTURY Model

Currently there is a trend for the expansion of the area cropped with sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.), driven by an increase in the world demand for biofuels, due to economical, environmental, and geopolitical issues. Although sugarcane is traditionally harvested by burning dried leaves and tops, the unburned, mechanized harvest has been progressively adopted. The use of process based models is useful in understanding the effects of plant litter in soil C dynamics. The objective of this work was to use the CENTURY model in evaluating the effect of sugarcane residue management in the temporal dynamics of soil C. The approach taken in this work was to parameterize the CENTURY model for the sugarcane crop, to simulate the temporal dynamics of soil C, validating the model through field experiment data, and finally to make predictions in the long term regarding soil C. The main focus of this work was the comparison of soil C stocks between the burned and unburned litter management systems, but the effect of mineral fertilizer and organic residue applications were also evaluated. The simulations were performed with data from experiments with different durations, from 1 to 60 yr, in Goiana and Timbauba, Pernambuco, and Pradopolis, Sao Paulo, all in Brazil; and Mount Edgecombe, Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa. It was possible to simulate the temporal dynamics of soil C (R(2) = 0.89). The predictions made with the model revealed that there is, in the long term, a trend for higher soil C stocks with the unburned management. This increase is conditioned by factors such as climate, soil texture, time of adoption of the unburned system, and N fertilizer management.

Discharge-calcium concentration relationships in streams of the Amazon and Cerrado of Brazil: soil or land use controlled

Stream discharge-concentration relationships are indicators of terrestrial ecosystem function. Throughout the Amazon and Cerrado regions of Brazil rapid changes in land use and land cover may be altering these hydrochemical relationships. The current analysis focuses on factors controlling the discharge-calcium (Ca) concentration relationship since previous research in these regions has demonstrated both positive and negative slopes in linear log(10)discharge-log(10)Ca concentration regressions. The objective of the current study was to evaluate factors controlling stream discharge-Ca concentration relationships including year, season, stream order, vegetation cover, land use, and soil classification. It was hypothesized that land use and soil class are the most critical attributes controlling discharge-Ca concentration relationships. A multilevel, linear regression approach was utilized with data from 28 streams throughout Brazil. These streams come from three distinct regions and varied broadly in watershed size (< 1 to > 10(6) ha) and discharge (10(-5.7)-10(3.2) m(3) s(-1)). Linear regressions of log(10)Ca versus log(10)discharge in 13 streams have a preponderance of negative slopes with only two streams having significant positive slopes. An ANOVA decomposition suggests the effect of discharge on Ca concentration is large but variable. Vegetation cover, which incorporates aspects of land use, explains the largest proportion of the variance in the effect of discharge on Ca followed by season and year. In contrast, stream order, land use, and soil class explain most of the variation in stream Ca concentration. In the current data set, soil class, which is related to lithology, has an important effect on Ca concentration but land use, likely through its effect on runoff concentration and hydrology, has a greater effect on discharge-concentration relationships.

Coexistence of forest and savanna in an Amazonian area from a geological perspective

Question: How can the coexistence of savanna and forest in Amazonian areas with relatively uniform climates be explained? Location: Eastern Marajo Island, northeast Amazonia, Brazil. Methods: The study integrated floristic analysis, terrain morphology, sedimentology and delta(13)C of soil organic matter. Floristic analysis involved rapid ecological assessment of 33 sites, determination of occurrence, specific richness, hierarchical distribution and matrix of floristic similarity between paired vegetation types. Terrain characterization was based on analysis of Landsat images using 4(R), 5(G) and 7(B) composition and digital elevation model (DEM). Sedimentology involved field descriptions of surface and core sediments. Finally, radiocarbon dating and analysis of delta(13)C of soil profile organic matter and natural ecotone forest-savanna was undertaken. Results: Slight tectonic subsidence in eastern Marajo Island favours seasonal flooding, making it unsuitable for forest growth. However, this area displays slightly convex-up, sinuous morphologies related to paleochannels, covered by forest. Terra-firme lowland forests are expanding from west to east, preferentially occupying paleochannels and replacing savanna. Slack, running water during channel abandonment leads to disappearance of varzea/gallery forest at channel margins. Long-abandoned channels sustain continuous terra-firme forests, because of longer times for more species to establish. Recently abandoned channels have had less time to become sites for widespread tree development, and are either not vegetated or covered by savanna. Conclusion: Landforms in eastern Marajo Island reflect changes in the physical environment due to reactivation of tectonic faults during the latest Quaternary. This promoted a dynamic history of channel abandonment, which controlled a set of interrelated parameters (soil type, topography, hydrology) that determined species location. Inclusion of a geological perspective for paleoenvironmental reconstruction can increase understanding of plant distribution in Amazonia.

Simultaneous optimization by neuro-genetic approach for analysis of plant materials by laser induced breakdown spectroscopy

A simultaneous optimization strategy based on a neuro-genetic approach is proposed for selection of laser induced breakdown spectroscopy operational conditions for the simultaneous determination of macronutrients (Ca, Mg and P), micro-nutrients (B, Cu, Fe, Mn and Zn), Al and Si in plant samples. A laser induced breakdown spectroscopy system equipped with a 10 Hz Q-switched Nd:YAG laser (12 ns, 532 nm, 140 mJ) and an Echelle spectrometer with intensified coupled-charge device was used. Integration time gate, delay time, amplification gain and number of pulses were optimized. Pellets of spinach leaves (NIST 1570a) were employed as laboratory samples. In order to find a model that could correlate laser induced breakdown spectroscopy operational conditions with compromised high peak areas of all elements simultaneously, a Bayesian Regularized Artificial Neural Network approach was employed. Subsequently, a genetic algorithm was applied to find optimal conditions for the neural network model, in an approach called neuro-genetic, A single laser induced breakdown spectroscopy working condition that maximizes peak areas of all elements simultaneously, was obtained with the following optimized parameters: 9.0 mu s integration time gate, 1.1 mu s delay time, 225 (a.u.) amplification gain and 30 accumulated laser pulses. The proposed approach is a useful and a suitable tool for the optimization process of such a complex analytical problem. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multifractal regime transition in a modified minority game model

The search for more realistic modeling of financial time series reveals several stylized facts of real markets. In this work we focus on the multifractal properties found in price and index signals. Although the usual minority game (MG) models do not exhibit multifractality, we study here one of its variants that does. We show that the nonsynchronous MG models in the nonergodic phase is multifractal and in this sense, together with other stylized facts, constitute a better modeling tool. Using the structure function (SF) approach we detected the stationary and the scaling range of the time series generated by the MG model and, from the linear (non-linear) behavior of the SF we identified the fractal (multifractal) regimes. Finally, using the wavelet transform modulus maxima (WTMM) technique we obtained its multifractal spectrum width for different dynamical regimes. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An opinion dynamics model for the diffusion of innovations

We study the dynamics of the adoption of new products by agents with continuous opinions and discrete actions (CODA). The model is such that the refusal in adopting a new idea or product is increasingly weighted by neighbor agents as evidence against the product. Under these rules, we study the distribution of adoption times and the final proportion of adopters in the population. We compare the cases where initial adopters are clustered to the case where they are randomly scattered around the social network and investigate small world effects on the final proportion of adopters. The model predicts a fat tailed distribution for late adopters which is verified by empirical data. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multifractality in the random parameter model for multivariate time series

The Random Parameter model was proposed to explain the structure of the covariance matrix in problems where most, but not all, of the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix can be explained by Random Matrix Theory. In this article, we explore the scaling properties of the model, as observed in the multifractal structure of the simulated time series. We use the Wavelet Transform Modulus Maxima technique to obtain the multifractal spectrum dependence with the parameters of the model. The model shows a scaling structure compatible with the stylized facts for a reasonable choice of the parameter values. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian updating rules in continuous opinion dynamics models

Here, I investigate the use of Bayesian updating rules applied to modeling how social agents change their minds in the case of continuous opinion models. Given another agent statement about the continuous value of a variable, we will see that interesting dynamics emerge when an agent assigns a likelihood to that value that is a mixture of a Gaussian and a uniform distribution. This represents the idea that the other agent might have no idea about what is being talked about. The effect of updating only the first moments of the distribution will be studied, and we will see that this generates results similar to those of the bounded confidence models. On also updating the second moment, several different opinions always survive in the long run, as agents become more stubborn with time. However, depending on the probability of error and initial uncertainty, those opinions might be clustered around a central value.

A Markovian model market-Akerlof`s lemons and the asymmetry of information

In this work we study an agent based model to investigate the role of asymmetric information degrees for market evolution. This model is quite simple and may be treated analytically since the consumers evaluate the quality of a certain good taking into account only the quality of the last good purchased plus her perceptive capacity beta. As a consequence, the system evolves according to a stationary Markov chain. The value of a good offered by the firms increases along with quality according to an exponent alpha, which is a measure of the technology. It incorporates all the technological capacity of the production systems such as education, scientific development and techniques that change the productivity rates. The technological level plays an important role to explain how the asymmetry of information may affect the market evolution in this model. We observe that, for high technological levels, the market can detect adverse selection. The model allows us to compute the maximum asymmetric information degree before the market collapses. Below this critical point the market evolves during a limited period of time and then dies out completely. When beta is closer to 1 (symmetric information), the market becomes more profitable for high quality goods, although high and low quality markets coexist. The maximum asymmetric information level is a consequence of an ergodicity breakdown in the process of quality evaluation. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Land planarians (Platyhelminthes) as a model organism for fine-scale phylogeographic studies: understanding patterns of biodiversity in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot

The Brazilian Atlantic Forest is one of the richest biodiversity hotspots of the world. Paleoclimatic models have predicted two large stability regions in its northern and central parts, whereas southern regions might have suffered strong instability during Pleistocene glaciations. Molecular phylogeographic and endemism studies show, nevertheless, contradictory results: although some results validate these predictions, other data suggest that paleoclimatic models fail to predict stable rainforest areas in the south. Most studies, however, have surveyed species with relatively high dispersal rates whereas taxa with lower dispersion capabilities should be better predictors of habitat stability. Here, we have used two land planarian species as model organisms to analyse the patterns and levels of nucleotide diversity on a locality within the Southern Atlantic Forest. We find that both species harbour high levels of genetic variability without exhibiting the molecular footprint of recent colonization or population expansions, suggesting a long-term stability scenario. The results reflect, therefore, that paleoclimatic models may fail to detect refugia in the Southern Atlantic Forest, and that model organisms with low dispersal capability can improve the resolution of these models.

Exercise of essential competencies for midwifery care by nurses in Sao Paulo, Brazil

General objective: to analyse the exercise of essential competencies for midwifery care by nurses and/or midwives in the public health system of Sao Paulo (eastern zone), Brazil. Specific objectives: to develop a profile of the public health institutions and of the nurses and/or midwives who care for women before, during and following child birth; to identify the activities performed in providing such care, as well as their frequency; and to specify the possible obstacles or difficulties encountered by them when exercising their competencies. Design: a descriptive and exploratory research design , using a quantitative approach. Setting: the study was conducted in all public health services of Sao Paulo (eastern zone), Brazil, namely 59 basic health-care units and six hospitals, during the period of October 2006-December 2007. Participants: the study population consisted of 272 nurses and/or midwives who provide care for pregnant women and newborns at the primary health-care units and maternity hospitals of the public health system. Participants comprised 100% of hospital nurse coordinators (n = 6), 61% of hospital maternity nursing and/or midwifery staff (n = 62) and 64% (n = 204) of nursing and/or midwifery staff working at primary health-care units. Methods and findings: the data collection was based on a single form given to the coordinators and two questionnaires, one handed out to antenatal and postnatal nursing and/or midwifery staff and another handed out to labour and birth nursing and/or midwifery staff. The results showed that nurses and/or midwives providing care for women during pregnancy, labour, birth and the postnatal period did not put the essential competencies for midwifery care into practice, because they encountered institutional barriers and personal resistance, and lacked protocols based on best practice and on the exercise of essential competencies needed for effective midwifery care. Key conclusions: the model of care in the public health services of Sao Paulo (eastern zone) is based much more on hierarchical positions than on professional competencies or on there commendations of the scientific community. As a result, health authorities need to review their midwifery policies to improve maternal-infant care by nurses and/or midwives in order to ensure the implementation of best midwifery practice. Practical implications: the results of this study support actions to improve the quality of care delivered to women and their families, while integrating nursing and midwifery care in Sao Paulo, Brazil. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.