943 resultados para Approximate Bayesian computation, Posterior distribution, Quantile distribution, Response time data
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Part 12: Collaboration Platforms
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Background: Nosocomial sepsis (NS) in newborns (NBs) is associated with high mortality rates and low microbial recovery rates. To overcome the latter problem, new techniques in molecular biology are being used. Objectives: To evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of SeptiFast test for the diagnosis of nosocomial sepsis in the newborn. Materials and Methods: 86 blood specimens of NBs with suspected NS (NOSEP-1 Test > 8 points) were analyzed using Light Cycler SeptiFast (LC-SF) a real-time multiplex PCR instrument. The results were analyzed with the Roche SeptiFast Identification Software. Another blood sample was collected to carry out a blood culture (BC). Results: Sensitivity (Sn) and specificity (Sp) of 0.69 and 0.65 respectively, compared with blood culture (BC) were obtained for LC-SF. Kappa index concordance between LC-SF and BC was 0.21. Thirteen (15.11%) samples were BC positive and 34 (31.39%) were positive with LC-SF tests. Conclusions: Compared with BC, LC-SF allows the detection of a greater number of pathogenic species in a small blood sample (1 mL) with a shorter response time.
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O presente Trabalho de Investigação Aplicada está subordinado ao tema “Apoio Aéreo nas Operações de Contrassubversão”. O desenvolvimento tecnológico alterou o paradigma da guerra, passando de guerra clássica ou convencional para guerra irregular. Os beligerantes dos conflitos deixaram de ser exércitos convencionais e passaram a ser milícias, grupos criminosos e organizações terroristas. O foco de atuação é redirecionado para a população em vez de componente militar do Estado opositor. Os elementos das forças irregulares provocam elevadas baixas nas tropas terrestres. Para reduzir esse número de baixas, existe uma ferramenta eficaz ao dispor das forças terrestres, apoio aéreo. O Teatro de Operações do Afeganistão envolveu vários Países na luta contra a insurgência, implicando uso de diferentes meios e táticas para combater a ameaça. Com esta investigação, pretende-se enunciar o papel do apoio aéreo nas operações de contrainsurgência no Afeganistão. A presente investigação é baseada no método de abordagem do problema indutivo, tendo como estudo de caso o Teatro de Operações do Afeganistão. Com esta investigação conclui-se, que o apoio aéreo desempenha papel fundamental no apoio à manobra terrestre. É uma ferramenta versátil e tem um tempo de resposta reduzido. Pode ser utilizado nas operações ofensivas e para garantir proteção da força nos deslocamentos. Por fim, o apoio aéreo é um elemento relevante nas operações psicológicas, uma vez que, basta a sua presença para intimidar o inimigo.
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With the exponential growth of the usage of web-based map services, the web GIS application has become more and more popular. Spatial data index, search, analysis, visualization and the resource management of such services are becoming increasingly important to deliver user-desired Quality of Service. First, spatial indexing is typically time-consuming and is not available to end-users. To address this, we introduce TerraFly sksOpen, an open-sourced an Online Indexing and Querying System for Big Geospatial Data. Integrated with the TerraFly Geospatial database [1-9], sksOpen is an efficient indexing and query engine for processing Top-k Spatial Boolean Queries. Further, we provide ergonomic visualization of query results on interactive maps to facilitate the user’s data analysis. Second, due to the highly complex and dynamic nature of GIS systems, it is quite challenging for the end users to quickly understand and analyze the spatial data, and to efficiently share their own data and analysis results with others. Built on the TerraFly Geo spatial database, TerraFly GeoCloud is an extra layer running upon the TerraFly map and can efficiently support many different visualization functions and spatial data analysis models. Furthermore, users can create unique URLs to visualize and share the analysis results. TerraFly GeoCloud also enables the MapQL technology to customize map visualization using SQL-like statements [10]. Third, map systems often serve dynamic web workloads and involve multiple CPU and I/O intensive tiers, which make it challenging to meet the response time targets of map requests while using the resources efficiently. Virtualization facilitates the deployment of web map services and improves their resource utilization through encapsulation and consolidation. Autonomic resource management allows resources to be automatically provisioned to a map service and its internal tiers on demand. v-TerraFly are techniques to predict the demand of map workloads online and optimize resource allocations, considering both response time and data freshness as the QoS target. The proposed v-TerraFly system is prototyped on TerraFly, a production web map service, and evaluated using real TerraFly workloads. The results show that v-TerraFly can accurately predict the workload demands: 18.91% more accurate; and efficiently allocate resources to meet the QoS target: improves the QoS by 26.19% and saves resource usages by 20.83% compared to traditional peak load-based resource allocation.
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An anastomosis is a surgical procedure that consists of the re-connection of two parts of an organ and is commonly required in cases of colorectal cancer. Approximately 80% of the patients diagnosed with this problem require surgery. The malignant tissue located on the gastrointestinal track must be resected and the most common procedure adopted is the anastomosis. Studies made with 2,980 patients that had this procedure, show that the leakage through the anastomosis was 5.1%. This paper discusses the dynamic behavior of N2O gas through different sized leakages as detected by an Infra-Red gas sensor and how the sensors response time changes depending on the leakage size. Different sized holes were made in the rigid tube to simulate an anastomostic leakage. N2O gas was injected into the tube through a pipe and the leakage rate measured by the infra-red gas sensor. Tests were also made experimentally also using a CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) package called FloWorks. The results will be compared and discussed in this paper.
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Fisheries bycatches and discards constitute a significant problem in many fisheries worldwide. Unlike the pelagic purse-seine, the demersal purse seine usually targets high commercial value demersal species such as sea breams ( e. g., Diplodus spp., Pagellus spp., Sparus aurata) and the European sea bass ( Dicentrarchus labrax), while discards consist mainly of pelagic species and juveniles of the above mentioned species. In order to evaluate the efficiency of a selectivity device in reducing bycatch and consequently of discards in a demersal purse seine fishery, experimental deployments were carried out. The bycatch reducing device (BRD) consisted in the use of a panel of diamond-shaped mesh netting of 70 mm stretched mesh in the posterior part of the purse seine. Data from 61 experimental fishing trials allowed the evaluation of discards, with Scomber japonicus, Boops boops, Sardina pilchardus, Diplodus bellottii and Belone belone being the main discarded species. The mean discard ratio per set was 0.49 (+/- 0.30 standard deviation). The causes for discarding were also identified, with low commercial value being the most important reason. The results of the trials with BRD, were promising, with an average of 49% (+/- 24%) of the fish escaping per set, especially from those species that are most discarded. Overall, the use of this method for reducing discards can be considered positive for the following reasons: there is no need for structural modification of the fishing gear, the BRD is easy to deploy, and it is efficient in terms of species, sizes and quantities of fish that manage to escape. It therefore has significant benefits for the demersal purse seine fishery and possibly for other "metiers" as well.
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The genetic algorithm is a very efficient tool to solve optimization problems. On the other hand, the classroom assignation in any education center, particularly those that does not have enough quantity of classrooms for the courseʼs demand converts it in an optimization problem. In the Department of Computer Science (Universidad de Costa Rica) this work is carried out manually every six months. Besides, at least two persons of the department are dedicated full time to this labor for one week or more. The present article describes an automatic solution that not only reduces the response time to seconds but it also finds an optimal solution in the majority of the cases. In addition gives flexibility in using the program when the information involved with classroom assignation has to be updated. The interface is simple an easy to use.
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The Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) will be the next-generation ground-based observatory to study the universe in the very-high-energy domain. The observatory will rely on a Science Alert Generation (SAG) system to analyze the real-time data from the telescopes and generate science alerts. The SAG system will play a crucial role in the search and follow-up of transients from external alerts, enabling multi-wavelength and multi-messenger collaborations. It will maximize the potential for the detection of the rarest phenomena, such as gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), which are the science case for this study. This study presents an anomaly detection method based on deep learning for detecting gamma-ray burst events in real-time. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated and compared against the Li&Ma standard technique in two use cases of serendipitous discoveries and follow-up observations, using short exposure times. The method shows promising results in detecting GRBs and is flexible enough to allow real-time search for transient events on multiple time scales. The method does not assume background nor source models and doe not require a minimum number of photon counts to perform analysis, making it well-suited for real-time analysis. Future improvements involve further tests, relaxing some of the assumptions made in this study as well as post-trials correction of the detection significance. Moreover, the ability to detect other transient classes in different scenarios must be investigated for completeness. The system can be integrated within the SAG system of CTA and deployed on the onsite computing clusters. This would provide valuable insights into the method's performance in a real-world setting and be another valuable tool for discovering new transient events in real-time. Overall, this study makes a significant contribution to the field of astrophysics by demonstrating the effectiveness of deep learning-based anomaly detection techniques for real-time source detection in gamma-ray astronomy.
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Chagas disease is still a major public health problem in Latin America. Its causative agent, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be typed into three major groups, T. cruzi I, T. cruzi II and hybrids. These groups each have specific genetic characteristics and epidemiological distributions. Several highly virulent strains are found in the hybrid group; their origin is still a matter of debate. The null hypothesis is that the hybrids are of polyphyletic origin, evolving independently from various hybridization events. The alternative hypothesis is that all extant hybrid strains originated from a single hybridization event. We sequenced both alleles of genes encoding EF-1 alpha, actin and SSU rDNA of 26 T. cruzi strains and DHFR-TS and TR of 12 strains. This information was used for network genealogy analysis and Bayesian phylogenies. We found T. cruzi I and T. cruzi II to be monophyletic and that all hybrids had different combinations of T. cruzi I and T. cruzi II haplotypes plus hybrid-specific haplotypes. Bootstrap values (networks) and posterior probabilities (Bayesian phylogenies) of clades supporting the monophyly of hybrids were far below the 95% confidence interval, indicating that the hybrid group is polyphyletic. We hypothesize that T. cruzi I and T. cruzi II are two different species and that the hybrids are extant representatives of independent events of genome hybridization, which sporadically have sufficient fitness to impact on the epidemiology of Chagas disease.
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In this paper distinct prior distributions are derived in a Bayesian inference of the two-parameters Gamma distribution. Noniformative priors, such as Jeffreys, reference, MDIP, Tibshirani and an innovative prior based on the copula approach are investigated. We show that the maximal data information prior provides in an improper posterior density and that the different choices of the parameter of interest lead to different reference priors in this case. Based on the simulated data sets, the Bayesian estimates and credible intervals for the unknown parameters are computed and the performance of the prior distributions are evaluated. The Bayesian analysis is conducted using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to generate samples from the posterior distributions under the above priors.
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Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08
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In this paper we investigate a Bayesian procedure for the estimation of a flexible generalised distribution, notably the MacGillivray adaptation of the g-and-κ distribution. This distribution, described through its inverse cdf or quantile function, generalises the standard normal through extra parameters which together describe skewness and kurtosis. The standard quantile-based methods for estimating the parameters of generalised distributions are often arbitrary and do not rely on computation of the likelihood. MCMC, however, provides a simulation-based alternative for obtaining the maximum likelihood estimates of parameters of these distributions or for deriving posterior estimates of the parameters through a Bayesian framework. In this paper we adopt the latter approach, The proposed methodology is illustrated through an application in which the parameter of interest is slightly skewed.
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Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.
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Hatschekia plectropomi, an ectoparasitic copepod found on the gills, infected Plectropomus leopardus from Heron Island Reef with 100% prevalence (n = 32) and a mean +/- S.E. infection intensity of 131.9 +/- 22.1. The distribution of 4222 adult female parasites across 32 individual host fish was investigated at several organizational levels ranging from the level of holobranch pairs to that of individual filaments. Parasites demonstrated a site preference for the two central holobranchs (2 and 3). Along the lengths of hemibranchs, filaments near the dorsal and ventral ends and those in the proximity of the bend region were rarely occupied. The probability of coming into contact with a suitable attachment site and the ability to withstand ventilation forces at that site were proposed as the major factors affecting distribution. Two H. plectropomi morphotypes were identified based on the direction of body curvature. Regardless of morphotype, 99.9% of individuals were attached such that the convex side of the body was oriented towards the oncoming ventilating water currents. Further, 93.3% of individuals attached to the posterior faces of filaments, leading to a predictable pattern of attachment for this species. It is suggested that the direction of body curvature develops in response to the direction of the ventilating water currents. (c) 2006 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.