Control dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome transmission

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a serious disease with many puzzling features. We present a simple, dynamic model to assess the epidemic potential of SARS and the effectiveness of control measures. With this model, we analysed the SARS epidemic data in Beijing. The data fitting gives the basic case reproduction number of 2.16 leading to the outbreak, and the variation of the effective reproduction number reflecting the control effect. Noticeably, our study shows that the response time and the strength of control measures have significant effects on the scale of the outbreak and the lasting time of the epidemic.

Probabilistic inference for fast learning in control

A novel framework is provided for very fast model-based reinforcement learning in continuous state and action spaces. It requires probabilistic models that explicitly characterize their levels of condence. Within the framework, exible, non-parametric models are used to describe the world based on previously collected experience. It demonstrates learning on the cart-pole problem in a setting where very limited prior knowledge about the task has been provided. Learning progressed rapidly, and a good policy found after only a small number of iterations.

Endogenous fisheries management in a stochastic model: Why do fishery agencies use TAC

The aim of this paper is to explain under which circumstances using TACs as instrument to manage a fishery along with fishing periods may be interesting from a regulatory point of view. In order to do this, the deterministic analysis of Homans and Wilen (1997)and Anderson (2000) is extended to a stochastic scenario where the resource cannot be measured accurately. The resulting endogenous stochastic model is numerically solved for finding the optimal control rules in the Iberian sardine stock. Three relevant conclusions can be highligted from simulations. First, the higher the uncertainty about the state of the stock is, the lower the probability of closing the fishery is. Second, the use of TACs as management instrument in fisheries already regulated with fishing periods leads to: i) An increase of the optimal season length and harvests, especially for medium and high number of licences, ii) An improvement of the biological and economic variables when the size of the fleet is large; and iii) Eliminate the extinction risk for the resource. And third, the regulator would rather select the number of licences and do not restrict the season length.

The New Keynesian Monetary Model: Does it Show the Comovement Between Output and Inflation in the U.S.?

Published as article in: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2008), 32(May), pp. 1466-1488.

Conceptual model of salt marsh management on Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge, Florida: final report

Diking and holding water on salt marshes ("impounding" the marsh) is a management technique used on Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge (MINWR) and elsewhere in the Southeast to: a) prevent the reproduction of saltmarsh mosquitos, and b) attract wintertering waterfowl and other marsh, shore, and wading birds. Because of concern that diking and holding water may interfere with the production of estuarine fish and shellfish, impoundment managers are being asked to consider altering management protocol to reduce or eliminate any such negative influence. How to change protocol and preserve effective mosquito control and wildlife management is a decision of great complexity because: a) the relationships between estuarine organisms and the fringing salt marshes at the land-water interface are complex, and b) impounded marshes are currently good habitat for a variety of species of fish and wildlife. Most data collection by scientists and managers in the area has not been focused on this particular problem. Furthermore, collection of needed data may not be possible before changes in protocol are demanded. Therefore, the purpose of this document is two-fold: 1) to suggest management alternatives, given existing information, and 2) to help identify research needs that have a high probability of leading to improved simultaneous management of mosquitos, waterfowl, other wildlife, freshwater fish, and estuarine fish and shellfish on the marshland of the Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge. (92 page document)

Prostitución y control social en el País Vasco, siglos XIII-XVII

[ES]Se analiza el ejercicio de la prostitución y el control de su ejercicio por parte de las autoridades municipales del País Vasco durante el periodo de reglamentación (siglos XIII-XVII). Además se explican las razones del por qué en el País Vasco no se consolidó un modelo de prostitución municipalizada.

A rational fraction polynomials model to study vertical dynamic wheel-rail interaction

This paper presents a model designed to study vertical interactions between wheel and rail when the wheel moves over a rail welding. The model focuses on the spatial domain, and is drawn up in a simple fashion from track receptances. The paper obtains the receptances from a full track model in the frequency domain already developed by the authors, which includes deformation of the rail section and propagation of bending, elongation and torsional waves along an infinite track. Transformation between domains was secured by applying a modified rational fraction polynomials method. This obtains a track model with very few degrees of freedom, and thus with minimum time consumption for integration, with a good match to the original model over a sufficiently broad range of frequencies. Wheel-rail interaction is modelled on a non-linear Hertzian spring, and consideration is given to parametric excitation caused by the wheel moving over a sleeper, since this is a moving wheel model and not a moving irregularity model. The model is used to study the dynamic loads and displacements emerging at the wheel-rail contact passing over a welding defect at different speeds.

Factors to consider when using native biological control organisms to manage exotic plants

Biological control of exotic plant populations with native organisms appears to be increasing, even though its success to date has been limited. Although many researchers and managers feel that native organisms are easier to use and present less risk to the environment this may not be true. Developing a successful management program with a native insect is dependent on a number of critical factors that need to be considered. Information is needed on the feeding preference of the agent, agent effectiveness, environmental regulation of the agent, unique requirements of the agent, population maintenance of the agent, and time to desired impact. By understanding these factors, researchers and managers can develop a detailed protocol for using the native biological control agent for a specific target plant. . We found E. lecontei in 14 waterbodies, most of which were in eastern Washington. Only one lake with weevils was located in western Washington. Weevils were associated with both Eurasian ( Myriophyllum spicatum L.) and northern watermilfoil ( M. sibiricum K.). Waterbodies with E. lecontei had significantly higher ( P < 0.05) pH (8.7 ± 0.2) (mean ± 2SE), specific conductance (0.3 ± 0.08 mS cm -1 ) and total alkalinity (132.4 ± 30.8 mg CaCO 3 L -1 ). We also found that weevil presence was related to surface water temperature and waterbody location ( = 24.3, P ≤ 0.001) and of all the models tested, this model provided the best fit (Hosmer- Lemeshow goodness-of-fit = 4.0, P = 0.9). Our results suggest that in Washington State E. lecontei occurs primarily in eastern Washington in waterbodies with pH ≥ 8.2 and specific conductance ≥ 0.2 mS cm -1 . Furthermore, weevil distribution appears to be correlated with waterbody location (eastern versus western Washington) and surface water temperature.

Investigation of Vaporized Kerosene Injection and Combustion in a Supersonic Model Combustor

Injection and combustion of vaporized kerosene was experimentally investigated in a Mach 2.5 model combustor at various fuel temperatures and injection pressures. A unique kerosene heating and delivery system, which can prepare heated kerosene up to 820 K at a pressure of 5.5 MPa with negligible fuel coking, was developed. A three-species surrogate was employed to simulate the thermophysical properties of kerosene. The calculated thermophysical properties of surrogate provided insight into the fuel flow control in experiments. Kerosene jet structures at various preheat temperatures injecting into both quiescent environment and a Mach 2.5 crossflow were characterized. It was shown that the use ofvaporized kerosene injection holds the potential of enhancing fuel-air mixing and promoting overall burning. Supersonic combustion tests further confirmed the preceding conjecture by comparing the combustor performances of supercritical kerosene with those of liquid kerosene and effervescent atomization with hydrogen barbotage. Under the similar flow conditions and overall kerosene equivalence ratios, experimental results illustrated that the combustion efficiency of supercritical kerosene increased approximately 10-15% over that of liquid kerosene, which was comparable to that of effervescent atomization.

Robust Sliding Mode Control for Tokamaks

Nuclear fusion has arisen as an alternative energy to avoid carbon dioxide emissions, being the tokamak a promising nuclear fusion reactor that uses a magnetic field to confine plasma in the shape of a torus. However, different kinds of magnetohydrodynamic instabilities may affect tokamak plasma equilibrium, causing severe reduction of particle confinement and leading to plasma disruptions. In this sense, numerous efforts and resources have been devoted to seeking solutions for the different plasma control problems so as to avoid energy confinement time decrements in these devices. In particular, since the growth rate of the vertical instability increases with the internal inductance, lowering the internal inductance is a fundamental issue to address for the elongated plasmas employed within the advanced tokamaks currently under development. In this sense, this paper introduces a lumped parameter numerical model of the tokamak in order to design a novel robust sliding mode controller for the internal inductance using the transformer primary coil as actuator.