A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Transdermal Pharmacology of Small Molecule Cyclic C5a Antagonists

Overproduction or underregulation of the proinflammatory complement component C5a has been implicated in numerous immune and inflammatory conditions. Therefore, targeting the C5a receptor (C5aR) has become an innovative strategy for antiinflammatory drug development. The novel cyclic peptide C5aR antagonist, AcF-[OP(D-Cha)WR] (PMX53), attenuates injury in numerous animal models of inflammation following intravenous, subcutaneous, intraperitoneal, and oral administration. In the present study the transdermal pharmacology of PMX53 and three analogs designed with increased lipophilicity, hydrocinnamate-[OP(D-Cha)WCit] (PMX200), AcF-[OP(D-Cha)WCit] (PMX201) and hydrocinnamate-[OP(D-Cha)WR] (PMX205), have been examined in order to assess their transdermal permeability and inhibitory effect on C5a-mediated lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced systemic responses. In the rat, PMX53, PMX201, and PMX205, were bioavailable following topical dermal administration (10 mg/50 cm(2) site/rat). All analogs functionally antagonized neutropenia and hypotension induced by systemic challenge with LPS (I mg/kg i.v.). Interestingly, PMX200 attenuated LPS-induced neutropenia more effectively than other analogs, despite undetectable (< 5 ng/ml) circulating levels following topical administration. In conclusion, we have demonstrated that cyclic peptide C5aR antagonists can penetrate transdermally sufficiently to have systemic effects. However, increasing lipophilicity in these compounds did not result in increased blood levels. Nonetheless, topical application of C5aR antagonists produced circulating levels of the drugs that antagonized the LPS-induced systemic responses of neutropenia and hypotension. This suggests that these small-molecule C5aR antagonists may be developed for topical administration for the treatment of local and systemic inflammatory conditions in the human and veterinary pharmaceutical markets.

A simple solution of the laminar dam break wave

The sudden release of a mass of fluid in a channel generates a highly unsteady flow motion, called dam break wave. While industrial fluids exhibit sometimes non-Newtonian behaviours, the viscous fluid flow assumption remains a useful approximation for simplified analyses. In this study, new solutions of laminar dam break wave are proposed for a semi-infinite reservoir based upon the method of characteristics. The solutions yield simple explicit expressions of the wave front location, wave front celerity and instantaneous free-surface profiles that compare favourably with experimental observations. Both horizontal and sloping channel configurations are treated. The simplicity of the equations may allow future extension to more complicated fluid flows.