Interacting effects of vegetation, soils and management on the sensitivity of Australian savanna rangelands to climate change

There is an increasing need to understand what makes vegetation at some locations more sensitive to climate change than others. For savanna rangelands, this requires building knowledge of how forage production in different land types will respond to climate change, and identifying how location-specific land type characteristics, climate and land management control the magnitude and direction of its responses to change. Here, a simulation analysis is used to explore how forage production in 14 land types of the north-eastern Australian rangelands responds to three climate change scenarios of +3A degrees C, +17% rainfall; +2A degrees C, -7% rainfall; and +3A degrees C, -46% rainfall. Our results demonstrate that the controls on forage production responses are complex, with functional characteristics of land types interacting to determine the magnitude and direction of change. Forage production may increase by up to 60% or decrease by up to 90% in response to the extreme scenarios of change. The magnitude of these responses is dependent on whether forage production is water or nitrogen (N) limited, and how climate changes influence these limiting conditions. Forage production responds most to changes in temperature and moisture availability in land types that are water-limited, and shows the least amount of change when growth is restricted by N availability. The fertilisation effects of doubled atmospheric CO2 were found to offset declines in forage production under 2A degrees C warming and a 7% reduction in rainfall. However, rising tree densities and declining land condition are shown to reduce potential opportunities from increases in forage production and raise the sensitivity of pastures to climate-induced water stress. Knowledge of these interactions can be applied in engaging with stakeholders to identify adaptation options.

Early Childhood teachers’ work in a time of change

This article investigates teacher decision-making in a time of rapid educational reforms. Institutional ethnography is used to discover how teachers’ work is co-ordinated by the texts of a new national curriculum, and a system for the assessment and ratings of kindergarten, preschool and long day-care services in individual settings and across sites. The research draws on video recorded interview data gathered from five teachers working with three to five year old children in kindergarten classrooms throughout South East Queensland. Analysis shows the reported effects of policy regimes designed to improve the quality of learning young children experience, on classroom teachers’ work. Findings suggest that increasing levels of governance enacted through policy texts are creating an audit culture where teachers’ educational work with children is changing. The article argues that the reported workload associated with the production of evidence, and the focus on providing ‘proof’ of quality, is taking teachers away from time spent building educative relationships with children. Note: In Queensland, kindergarten caters for children aged three and a half to five years. This year is known as Preschool in some Australian states.

Sweetcorn colour change and consumer perception associated with increasing zeaxanthin for the amelioration of age-related macular degeneration

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in the developed world. Increasing dietary intake of lutein- and zeaxanthin-rich foods is a potential means of preventing, or at least slowing the progression of AMD. Zeaxanthin levels in tropical super-sweetcorn was increased from 1.1 to 11.9 µg/g FW through conventional breeding and selection, associated with both an increase in the proportion of zeaxanthin relative to other carotenoids, and a general increase in carotenoid synthesis. Increasing zeaxanthin was associated with a colour shift from traditional ‘canary-yellow’ kernels to a golden-orange colour. Kernel colour was most closely correlated (r2=69%) with an increase in beta-arm carotenoid concentration. Consumer analysis revealed that prior to any knowledge of zeaxanthin-related health benefit, consumers would readily purchase both yellow and gold cobs. Once the health benefit was explained, this extended to deep-gold cobs. Colour difference between regular yellow sweetcorn and high-zeaxanthin sweetcorn could potentially be used as a visual means of differentiating high-zeaxanthin sweetcorn in the marketplace.

A simple method of estimating the detonation velocity from chemical composition of organic explosives

A simple yet fairly accurate method of calculating the ideal detonation velocity of an organic explosive from a knowledge of the chemical composition alone is proposed. The method is based on the concept that the energetics of a stoichiometrically balanced fuel-oxidizer system is a function of the total oxidizing or reducing valences of the composition. A combination of the valences in the form of Image , where R and P are, respectively, the reducing and oxidizing valences and MW is the molecular weight, has been found to be linearly related to the detonation velocity of the expolosive. The predicting capacity of the method has been found to be superior to other methods in the literature.

Patient preferences for receiving remote communication support for lifestyle physical activity behaviour change: The perspective of patients with musculoskeletal disorders from three hospital services

This study examined patients’ preference ratings for receiving support via remote communication to increase their lifestyle physical activity. Methods People with musculoskeletal disorders ( n=221 of 296 eligible) accessing one of three clinics provided preference ratings for “how much” they wanted to receive physical activity support via five potential communication modalities. The five ratings were generated on a horizontal analogue rating scale (0 represented “not at all”; 10 represented “very much”). Results Most (n=155, 70%) desired referral to a physical activity promoting intervention. “Print and post” communications had the highest median preference rating (7/10), followed by email and telephone (both 5/10), text messaging (1/10), and private Internet-based social network messages (0/10). Desire to be referred was associated with higher preference for printed materials (coefficient = 2.739, p<0.001), telephone calls (coefficient = 3.000, p<0.001), and email (coefficient = 2.059, p=0.02). Older age was associated with lower preference for email (coefficient = −0.100, p<0.001), texting (coefficient = −0.096, p<0.001), and social network messages (coefficient = −0.065, p<0.001). Conclusion Patients desiring support to be physically active indicated preferences for interventions with communication via print, email, or telephone calls.

Robust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa

West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate hazards and better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields are urgently needed. Here we provide an assessment of near-term climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa and account for uncertainties both in future climate scenarios and in crop models. Towards this goal, we use simulations of nine bias-corrected CMIP5 climate models and two crop models (SARRA-H and APSIM) to evaluate the robustness of projected crop yield impacts in this area. In broad agreement with the full CMIP5 ensemble, our subset of bias-corrected climate models projects a mean warming of +2.8 °C in the decades of 2031–2060 compared to a baseline of 1961–1990 and a robust change in rainfall in West Africa with less rain in the Western part of the Sahel (Senegal, South-West Mali) and more rain in Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, South-West Niger). Projected rainfall deficits are concentrated in early monsoon season in the Western part of the Sahel while positive rainfall changes are found in late monsoon season all over the Sahel, suggesting a shift in the seasonality of the monsoon. In response to such climate change, but without accounting for direct crop responses to CO2, mean crop yield decreases by about 16–20% and year-to-year variability increases in the Western part of the Sahel, while the eastern domain sees much milder impacts. Such differences in climate and impacts projections between the Western and Eastern parts of the Sahel are highly consistent across the climate and crop models used in this study. We investigate the robustness of impacts for different choices of cultivars, nutrient treatments, and crop responses to CO2. Adverse impacts on mean yield and yield variability are lowest for modern cultivars, as their short and nearly fixed growth cycle appears to be more resilient to the seasonality shift of the monsoon, thus suggesting shorter season varieties could be considered a potential adaptation to ongoing climate changes. Easing nitrogen stress via increasing fertilizer inputs would increase absolute yields, but also make the crops more responsive to climate stresses, thus enhancing the negative impacts of climate change in a relative sense. Finally, CO2 fertilization would significantly offset the negative climate

Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change

Abstract The paper evaluates the effect of future climate change (as per the CSIRO Mk3.5 A1FI future climate projection) on cotton yield in Southern Queensland and Northern NSW, eastern Australia by using of the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator). The simulations of cotton production show that changes in the influential meteorological parameters caused by climate change would lead to decreased future cotton yields without the effect of CO2 fertilisation. By 2050 the yields would decrease by 17 %. Including the effects of CO2 fertilisation ameliorates the effect of decreased water availability and yields increase by 5.9 % by 2030, but then decrease by 3.6 % in 2050. Importantly, it was necessary to increase irrigation amounts by almost 50 % to maintain adequate soil moisture levels. The effect of CO2 was found to have an important positive impact of the yield in spite of deleterious climate change. This implies that the physiological response of plants to climate change needs to be thoroughly understood to avoid making erroneous projections of yield and potentially stifling investment or increasing risk.

Spatial and temporal variability in midge (Nematocera) assemblages in shallow Finnish lakes (60−70 °N) : community-based modelling of past environmental change

Multi- and intralake datasets of fossil midge assemblages in surface sediments of small shallow lakes in Finland were studied to determine the most important environmental factors explaining trends in midge distribution and abundance. The aim was to develop palaeoenvironmental calibration models for the most important environmental variables for the purpose of reconstructing past environmental conditions. The developed models were applied to three high-resolution fossil midge stratigraphies from southern and eastern Finland to interpret environmental variability over the past 2000 years, with special focus on the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and recent anthropogenic changes. The midge-based results were compared with physical properties of the sediment, historical evidence and environmental reconstructions based on diatoms (Bacillariophyta), cladocerans (Crustacea: Cladocera) and tree rings. The results showed that the most important environmental factor controlling midge distribution and abundance along a latitudinal gradient in Finland was the mean July air temperature (TJul). However, when the dataset was environmentally screened to include only pristine lakes, water depth at the sampling site became more important. Furthermore, when the dataset was geographically scaled to southern Finland, hypolimnetic oxygen conditions became the dominant environmental factor. The results from an intralake dataset from eastern Finland showed that the most important environmental factors controlling midge distribution within a lake basin were river contribution, water depth and submerged vegetation patterns. In addition, the results of the intralake dataset showed that the fossil midge assemblages represent fauna that lived in close proximity to the sampling sites, thus enabling the exploration of within-lake gradients in midge assemblages. Importantly, this within-lake heterogeneity in midge assemblages may have effects on midge-based temperature estimations, because samples taken from the deepest point of a lake basin may infer considerably colder temperatures than expected, as shown by the present test results. Therefore, it is suggested here that the samples in fossil midge studies involving shallow boreal lakes should be taken from the sublittoral, where the assemblages are most representative of the whole lake fauna. Transfer functions between midge assemblages and the environmental forcing factors that were significantly related with the assemblages, including mean air TJul, water depth, hypolimnetic oxygen, stream flow and distance to littoral vegetation, were developed using weighted averaging (WA) and weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS) techniques, which outperformed all the other tested numerical approaches. Application of the models in downcore studies showed mostly consistent trends. Based on the present results, which agreed with previous studies and historical evidence, the Medieval Climate Anomaly between ca. 800 and 1300 AD in eastern Finland was characterized by warm temperature conditions and dry summers, but probably humid winters. The Little Ice Age (LIA) prevailed in southern Finland from ca. 1550 to 1850 AD, with the coldest conditions occurring at ca. 1700 AD, whereas in eastern Finland the cold conditions prevailed over a longer time period, from ca. 1300 until 1900 AD. The recent climatic warming was clearly represented in all of the temperature reconstructions. In the terms of long-term climatology, the present results provide support for the concept that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index has a positive correlation with winter precipitation and annual temperature and a negative correlation with summer precipitation in eastern Finland. In general, the results indicate a relatively warm climate with dry summers but snowy winters during the MCA and a cool climate with rainy summers and dry winters during the LIA. The results of the present reconstructions and the forthcoming applications of the models can be used in assessments of long-term environmental dynamics to refine the understanding of past environmental reference conditions and natural variability required by environmental scientists, ecologists and policy makers to make decisions concerning the presently occurring global, regional and local changes. The developed midge-based models for temperature, hypolimnetic oxygen, water depth, littoral vegetation shift and stream flow, presented in this thesis, are open for scientific use on request.

Spatial variation of climate and the impact of disturbances on local climate and forest recovery in northern Finland

The structure and function of northern ecosystems are strongly influenced by climate change and variability and by human-induced disturbances. The projected global change is likely to have a pronounced effect on the distribution and productivity of different species, generating large changes in the equilibrium at the tree-line. In turn, movement of the tree-line and the redistribution of species produce feedback to both the local and the regional climate. This research was initiated with the objective of examining the influence of natural conditions on the small-scale spatial variation of climate in Finnish Lapland, and to study the interaction and feedback mechanisms in the climate-disturbances-vegetation system near the climatological border of boreal forest. The high (1 km) resolution spatial variation of climate parameters over northern Finland was determined by applying the Kriging interpolation method that takes into account the effect of external forcing variables, i.e., geographical coordinates, elevation, sea and lake coverage. Of all the natural factors shaping the climate, the geographical position, local topography and altitude proved to be the determining ones. Spatial analyses of temperature- and precipitation-derived parameters based on a 30-year dataset (1971-2000) provide a detailed description of the local climate. Maps of the mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, the frost-free period and the growing season indicate that the most favourable thermal conditions exist in the south-western part of Lapland, around large water bodies and in the Kemijoki basin, while the coldest regions are in highland and fell Lapland. The distribution of precipitation is predominantly longitudinally dependent but with the definite influence of local features. The impact of human-induced disturbances, i.e., forest fires, on local climate and its implication for forest recovery near the northern timberline was evaluated in the Tuntsa area of eastern Lapland, damaged by a widespread forest fire in 1960 and suffering repeatedly-failed vegetation recovery since that. Direct measurements of the local climate and simulated heat and water fluxes indicated the development of a more severe climate and physical conditions on the fire-disturbed site. Removal of the original, predominantly Norway spruce and downy birch vegetation and its substitution by tundra vegetation has generated increased wind velocity and reduced snow accumulation, associated with a large variation in soil temperature and moisture and deep soil frost. The changed structural parameters of the canopy have determined changes in energy fluxes by reducing the latter over the tundra vegetation. The altered surface and soil conditions, as well as the evolved severe local climate, have negatively affected seedling growth and survival, leading to more unfavourable conditions for the reproduction of boreal vegetation and thereby causing deviations in the regional position of the timberline. However it should be noted that other factors, such as an inadequate seed source or seedbed, the poor quality of the soil and the intensive logging of damaged trees could also exacerbate the poor tree regeneration. In spite of the failed forest recovery at Tunsta, the position and composition of the timberline and tree-line in Finnish Lapland may also benefit from present and future changes in climate. The already-observed and the projected increase in temperature, the prolonged growing season, as well as changes in the precipitation regime foster tree growth and new regeneration, resulting in an advance of the timberline and tree-line northward and upward. This shift in the distribution of vegetation might be decelerated or even halted by local topoclimatic conditions and by the expected increase in the frequency of disturbances.

Integration of natural hazards, risk and climate change into spatial planning practices

Most countries of Europe, as well as many countries in other parts of the world, are experiencing an increased impact of natural hazards. It is often speculated, but not yet proven, that climate change might influence the frequency and magnitude of certain hydro-meteorological natural hazards. What has certainly been observed is a sharp increase in financial losses caused by natural hazards worldwide. Eventhough Europe appears to be a space that is not affected by natural hazards to such catastrophic extents as other parts of the world are, the damages experienced here are certainly increasing too. Natural hazards, climate change and, in particular, risks have therefore recently been put high on the political agenda of the EU. In the search for appropriate instruments for mitigating impacts of natural hazards and climate change, as well as risks, the integration of these factors into spatial planning practices is constantly receiving higher attention. The focus of most approaches lies on single hazards and climate change mitigation strategies. The current paradigm shift of climate change mitigation to adaptation is used as a basis to draw conclusions and recommendations on what concepts could be further incorporated into spatial planning practices. Especially multi-hazard approaches are discussed as an important approach that should be developed further. One focal point is the definition and applicability of the terms natural hazard, vulnerability and risk in spatial planning practices. Especially vulnerability and risk concepts are so many-fold and complicated that their application in spatial planning has to be analysed most carefully. The PhD thesis is based on six published articles that describe the results of European research projects, which have elaborated strategies and tools for integrated communication and assessment practices on natural hazards and climate change impacts. The papers describe approaches on local, regional and European level, both from theoretical and practical perspectives. Based on these, passed, current and future potential spatial planning applications are reviewed and discussed. In conclusion it is recommended to shift from single hazard assessments to multi-hazard approaches, integrating potential climate change impacts. Vulnerability concepts should play a stronger role than present, and adaptation to natural hazards and climate change should be more emphasized in relation to mitigation. It is outlined that the integration of risk concepts in planning is rather complicated and would need very careful assessment to ensure applicability. Future spatial planning practices should also consider to be more interdisciplinary, i.e. to integrate as many stakeholders and experts as possible to ensure the sustainability of investments.

Reducing falls in hospital through education to change patient and staff behaviour: A stepped wedge cluster randomised controlled effectiveness trial

Background: Falls remain the most frequent adverse event reported in hospitals, particularly geriatric rehabilitation wards. Randomised trials reducing fall injuries in hospitals have been elusive. Our previous randomised trial (n = 1206) demonstrated that multimedia education with physiotherapist falls educator support reduced falls among patients with higher cognition levels, but this benefit was offset by a potential increase in falls rates among patients with poor cognition. In the previous trial, hospital staff were blinded to the allocation of individual patients, and only delivered usual care.

Hydration numbers of some metal acetates, monochloroacetates and trichloroacetates in solution from ultrasonic velocity and conpressibility measurements

Ultrasonic velocities in aqueous solutions of some metal acetates, monochloroacelates and trichloroacetates, and the respective acids have been measured at 1 MHz frequency using the pulse technique. The ultrsonic velocity, adiabatic compressibility and apperent molal compressibility were measured as a function of concentration. The apparent molal compressibility values at infinite dilution were calculated and used to determine the hydration numbers.

Velocity ratio in the analysis of linear dynamical systems

The transfer matrix method is known to be well suited for a complete analysis of a lumped as well as distributed element, one-dimensional, linear dynamical system with a marked chain topology. However, general subroutines of the type available for classical matrix methods are not available in the current literature on transfer matrix methods. In the present article, general expressions for various aspects of analysis-viz., natural frequency equation, modal vectors, forced response and filter performance—have been evaluated in terms of a single parameter, referred to as velocity ratio. Subprograms have been developed for use with the transfer matrix method for the evaluation of velocity ratio and related parameters. It is shown that a given system, branched or straight-through, can be completely analysed in terms of these basic subprograms, on a stored program digital computer. It is observed that the transfer matrix method with the velocity ratio approach has certain advantages over the existing general matrix methods in the analysis of one-dimensional systems.