Simple software processes and tests improve the reliability and usefulness of a model.

Models are abstractions of reality that have predetermined limits (often not consciously thought through) on what problem domains the models can be used to explore. These limits are determined by the range of observed data used to construct and validate the model. However, it is important to remember that operating the model beyond these limits, one of the reasons for building the model in the first place, potentially brings unwanted behaviour and thus reduces the usefulness of the model. Our experience with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), a farming systems model, has led us to adapt techniques from the disciplines of modelling and software development to create a model development process. This process is simple, easy to follow, and brings a much higher level of stability to the development effort, which then delivers a much more useful model. A major part of the process relies on having a range of detailed model tests (unit, simulation, sensibility, validation) that exercise a model at various levels (sub-model, model and simulation). To underline the usefulness of testing, we examine several case studies where simulated output can be compared with simple relationships. For example, output is compared with crop water use efficiency relationships gleaned from the literature to check that the model reproduces the expected function. Similarly, another case study attempts to reproduce generalised hydrological relationships found in the literature. This paper then describes a simple model development process (using version control, automated testing and differencing tools), that will enhance the reliability and usefulness of a model.

Chemical changes during the aging and decomposition of composite solid propellants

During the thermal decomposition of orthorhombic ammonium perchlorate (AP) at 230°C, where the decomposition is only up to 30 wt %, there is an accumulation in the solid of acids, the concentration of which increases up to 15% decomposition, after which it decreases till it reaches the original value. Similar observations have been made in the polystyrene (PS)/AP propellant systems. Aging studies of PS/AP propellants have been carried out earlier [1], where it has been shown that for the aged propellants the thermal decomposition (TD) rate at 230°C and 260°C and ambient pressure burning rate (Image ) both increase and this increase is due to the formation of reactive intermediate “polystyrene peroxide (PSP).” In the present studies it has been observed that during the aging of the propellant at 150°C, the acid is formed and gets accumulated in the propellant, which may also be responsible for the increase in TD rate and perhaps may be more effective than PSP.

Proof of concept study to improve the quality and safety of kangaroo meat

The harvesting of kangaroos for human and pet food consumption has become a significant domestic and export industry. Kangaroo meat is low in fat and contains polyunsaturated fats which are known for their health benefits.

Tilapia in Australia – Development of management strategies for the control and eradication of feral tilapia populations in Australia

This report presents a culmination of different research projects on two species of tilapia (Oreochromis mossambicus and Tilapia mariae) and provides recommendations for the future management and research of these pest fish. Feral populations of O. mossambicus and T. mariae are now widely distributed in tropical northeastern Queensland, with O. mossambicus also occurring in southeastern Queensland and river systems of Western Australia. O. mossambicus is known to have existed in impoundments in southeastern Queensland, as well as urban drains and ornamental ponds in the Townsville region of north Queensland from about the late 1970s, while T. mariae became established in some easternflowing tropical streams by the early 1990s. In Australia, feral stocks of tilapia are widely regarded as pests that potentially threaten both native fish stocks and biodiversity.

The navigation and visualisation of environmental audio using zooming spectrograms

Acoustic recordings play an increasingly important role in monitoring terrestrial and aquatic environments. However, rapid advances in technology make it possible to accumulate thousands of hours of recordings, more than ecologists can ever listen to. Our approach to this big-data challenge is to visualize the content of long-duration audio recordings on multiple scales, from minutes, hours, days to years. The visualization should facilitate navigation and yield ecologically meaningful information prior to listening to the audio. To construct images, we calculate acoustic indices, statistics that describe the distribution of acoustic energy and reflect content of ecological interest. We combine various indices to produce false-color spectrogram images that reveal acoustic content and facilitate navigation. The technical challenge we investigate in this work is how to navigate recordings that are days or even months in duration. We introduce a method of zooming through multiple temporal scales, analogous to Google Maps. However, the “landscape” to be navigated is not geographical and not therefore intrinsically visual, but rather a graphical representation of the underlying audio. We describe solutions to navigating spectrograms that range over three orders of magnitude of temporal scale. We make three sets of observations: 1. We determine that at least ten intermediate scale steps are required to zoom over three orders of magnitude of temporal scale; 2. We determine that three different visual representations are required to cover the range of temporal scales; 3. We present a solution to the problem of maintaining visual continuity when stepping between different visual representations. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of the approach with four case studies.

Factors affecting the synthesis and distribution of beta-lactamase in Mycobacterium smegmatis SN2 cultures

A high level of extracellular beta-lactamase activity was detected in cultures ofMycobacterium smegmatis SN2. The extracellular distribution of the enzyme varied with growth conditions such as additional carbon source and pH of the medium. Addition of chloramphenicol tothe culture inhibited the increase in the extracellular beta-lactamase activity. Cell wall damage or autolysis may be responsible for the extracellular beta-lactamase activity.

Investigation of the distribution and incidence of Avocado sunblotch

Investigation of the distribution and incidence of Avocado sunblotch.

The Functions and Regulation of Ornithine Decarboxylase

Ornithine decarboxylase (ODC) regulates the synthesis of polyamines which are involved in many cellular functions e.g. proliferation and differentiation. Due to its critical role, ODC is a tightly regulated enzyme by antizymes and antizyme inhibitors. If the regulation fails, the activity of ODC increases and may lead to malignant transformation of a cell. Increased ODC activity is found in many common cancers, including colon, prostate, and breast cancer. In a transformed cell, dynamics of the actin cytoskeleton is disturbed. A small G-protein, RhoA regulates organization of the cytoskeleton, and its overactivity increases malignant potential of the cell. The present results indicate that covalent attachment of polyamines by transglutaminase is a physiological means of regulating the activity of RhoA. The translocation of RhoA to the plasma membrane, where it exerts its activity is dependent on the presence of catalytically active ODC. As the overactivity of ODC and RhoA are implicated in cell transformation, the results provide a mechanistic explanation of the interrelationship between the polyamine metabolism and the reorganization of the actin cytoskeleton occurring in cancer cells. ODC and polyamines have also an important role in the function of central nervous system. They participate in the regulation of brain morphogenesis in embryos. In adult nervous tissue, polyamines regulate K+ and glutamate channels. K+ inward rectifying channels control membrane potentials and NMDA-type glutamate receptors (NMDAR) regulate synaptic plasticity. High ODC activity and polyamine levels are considered important in the development of ischemic brain damage and they are implicated in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer s disease (AD). A homolog of ODC was cloned from a human brain cDNA library, and several alternatively spliced variants were detected in human brain and testis. The novel protein was nevertheless devoid of ODC catalytic activity. It was subsequently found to be a novel inductor of ODC activity and polyamine synthesis, called antizyme inhibitor 2 (AZIN2). The accumulation of AZIN2 in vesicle-like formations along the axons and beneath the plasma membrane of neurons as well as in steroid hormone producing Leydig cells and luteal cells of the gonads implies that AZIN2 plays a role in secretion and vesicle trafficking. An accumulation of AZIN2 was detected also in specimens of AD brains. This increased expression of AZIN2 was specific for AD and was not found in brains with other neurodegenerative diseases including CADASIL or dementia with Lewy bodies.

Writing fashion’s future: the gods and monsters of the Anthropocene

This paper identifies two narratives of the Anthropocene and explores how they play out in the realm of future-looking fashion production. Each narrative draws on mythic comparisons to gods and monsters to express humanity’s dilemmas, albeit from different perspectives. The first is a Malthusian narrative of collapse and scarcity, brought about by the monstrous, unstoppable nature of human technology set loose on the natural world. In this vein, philosopher Slavoj Zizek (2010) draws on Biblical analogies, likening ecological crisis to one of the four horsemen of the apocalypse. To find a myth to suit the present times, novelist A.S Byatt (2011) proposes Ragnarök, a Norse myth in which the gods destroy themselves. In contrast, the second narrative is one of technological cornucopia. Stewart Brand (2009, 27), self-described ‘eco-pragmatist’ writes, ‘we are as gods and we have to get good at it’. In his view, human technologies offer the only hope to mitigating the problems caused by human technology – Brand suggests harnessing nuclear power, bioengineering of crops and the geoengineering of the planet as the way forward. Similarly, the French philosopher Bruno Latour (2012, 274), exhorts us to “love our monsters”, likening our technologies to Doctor Frankenstein’s monster – set loose upon the world, and then reviled by his creator. For both Brand and Latour, human technology may be monstrous, but it must also be turned toward solutions. Within this schema, hopeful visions of the future of fashion are similarly divided. In the techno-enabled cornucopian future, the fashion industry embraces wearable technology, speed and efficiency. Technologies such as waterless dyeing, 3D printing and self-cleaning garments shift fashion into a new era of cleaner production. Meanwhile, in the narrative of scarcity, a more cautious approach sees fashion return to a new localism and valuing of the hand-made in a time of shrinking resources. Through discussion of future-looking fashion designers, brands, and activists, this paper explores how they may align along a spectrum to one of these two grand narratives of the future. The paper will discuss how these narratives may unconsciously shape the perspective of both producers and users around the fashion of today and the fashion of tomorrow. This paper poses the question: what stories can be written for fashion’s future in the Anthropocene, and are they fated, or can they be re-written?

Brownian particles in stationary and moving traps: The mean and variance of the heat distribution function

A recent theoretical model developed by Imparato et al. Phys of the experimentally measured heat and work effects produced by the thermal fluctuations of single micron-sized polystyrene beads in stationary and moving optical traps has proved to be quite successful in rationalizing the observed experimental data. The model, based on the overdamped Brownian dynamics of a particle in a harmonic potential that moves at a constant speed under a time-dependent force, is used to obtain an approximate expression for the distribution of the heat dissipated by the particle at long times. In this paper, we generalize the above model to consider particle dynamics in the presence of colored noise, without passing to the overdamped limit, as a way of modeling experimental situations in which the fluctuations of the medium exhibit long-lived temporal correlations, of the kind characteristic of polymeric solutions, for instance, or of similar viscoelastic fluids. Although we have not been able to find an expression for the heat distribution itself, we do obtain exact expressions for its mean and variance, both for the static and for the moving trap cases. These moments are valid for arbitrary times and they also hold in the inertial regime, but they reduce exactly to the results of Imparato et al. in appropriate limits. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.80.011118 PACS.

Harvest strategy evaluation to optimise the sustainability and value of the Queensland scallop fishery. Queensland scallop fishery - FRDC Project No 2006/024 Final Report

Objective 1. Measure spatial and temporal trawl frequency of scallop grounds using VMS data. This will provide a relative measure of how often individual undersized scallops are caught and put through a tumbler 2. Estimate discard mortality and growth rates for saucer scallops using cage experiments. 3. Evaluate the current management measures, in particular the seasonal closure, rotational closure and seasonally varying minimum legal sizes using stock assessment and management modeling models. Recommend optimal range of management measures to ensure long-term viability and value of the Scallop fishery based on a formal management strategy evaluation. Outcomes acheived to date: 1. Improved understanding of the survival rates of discarded sub-legal scallops; 2. Preliminary von Bertalanffy growth parameters using data from tagged-and-released scallops; 3. Changing trends in vessels and fishing gear used in the Queensland scallop fishery and their effect on scallop catch rates over time using standardised catch rates quantified; 4. Increases in fishing power of vessels operating in the Queensland scallop fishery quantified; 5. Trawl intensity mapped and quantified for all Scallop Replenishment Areas; 6. Harvest Strategy Evaluations completed.

Wild dogma II: the role and implications of wild dogma for wild dog management in Australia

The studies of Allen (2011) and Allen et al. (2011) recently examined the methodology underpinning claims that dingoes provide net benefits to biodiversity by suppressing foxes and cats. They found most studies to have design flaws and/or observational methods that preclude valid interpretations from the data, describing most of the current literature as ‘wild dogma’. In this short supplement, we briefly highlight the roles and implications of wild dogma for wild dog management in Australia. We discuss nomenclature, and the influence that unreliable science can have on policy and practice changes related to apex predator management.

Estimating the duration and cost of weed eradication programmes

Two prerequisites for realistically embarking upon an eradication programme are that cost-benefit analysis favours this strategy over other management options and that sufficient resources are available to carry the programme through to completion. These are not independent criteria, but it is our view that too little attention has been paid to estimating the investment required to complete weed eradication programmes. We deal with this problem by using a two-pronged approach: 1) developing a stochastic dynamic model that provides an estimation of programme duration; and 2) estimating the inputs required to delimit a weed incursion and to prevent weed reproduction over a sufficiently long period to allow extirpation of all infestations. The model is built upon relationships that capture the time-related detection of new infested areas, rates of progression of infestations from the active to the monitoring stage, rates of reversion of infestations from the monitoring to active stage, and the frequency distribution of time since last detection for all infestations. This approach is applied to the branched broomrape (Orobanche ramosa) eradication programme currently underway in South Australia. This programme commenced in 1999 and currently 7450 ha are known to be infested with the weed. To date none of the infestations have been eradicated. Given recent (2008) levels of investment and current eradication methods, model predictions are that it would take, on average, an additional 73 years to eradicate this weed at an average additional cost (NPV) of $AU67.9m. When the model was run for circumstances in 2003 and 2006, the average programme duration and total cost (NPV) were predicted to be 159 and 94 years, and $AU91.3m and $AU72.3m, respectively. The reduction in estimated programme length and cost may represent progress towards the eradication objective, although eradication of this species still remains a long term prospect.