Sparse one-dimensional discrete Dirac operators II: Spectral properties

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The Poisson-exponential regression model under different latent activation schemes

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The Conway-Maxwell-Poisson-generalized gamma regression model with long-term survivors

In this paper, we proposed a flexible cure rate survival model by assuming the number of competing causes of the event of interest following the Conway-Maxwell distribution and the time for the event to follow the generalized gamma distribution. This distribution can be used to model survival data when the hazard rate function is increasing, decreasing, bathtub and unimodal-shaped including some distributions commonly used in lifetime analysis as particular cases. Some appropriate matrices are derived in order to evaluate local influence on the estimates of the parameters by considering different perturbations, and some global influence measurements are also investigated. Finally, data set from the medical area is analysed.

Short-Term Multinodal Load Forecasting Using a Modified General Regression Neural Network

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Cytokines and acute-phase serum proteins as markers of inflammatory regression during pulmonary tuberculosis treatment

Tuberculosis is still increasing and was declared a worldwide sanitary emergency by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 1995. Its control is difficult due to long treatment duration and lack of markers of treatment success or failure. Cytokines such as IFN-gamma and TNF-alpha, a central factor in immune response against Mycobacterium tuberculosis, are responsible for the interaction between T lymphocytes and the infected macrophage and are also produced during this interaction. As proinflammatory cytokines have a close relationship with mycobacteria clearance, in fact even preceding it, they could be used as markers for inflammatory activity and response to treatment. Proinflammatory cytokines act in the liver and stimulate a strong local and systemic acute-phase response as a result of homeostatic and physiological responses also induced by them. Acute-phase proteins produced by cytokine activity are useful diagnostic markers that could also be used to monitor treatment response as they can be serially quantified. The objective of this study was to evaluate IFN-gamma, TNF-alpha, IL-10 and TGF-beta production in supernatant of peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) and monocyte (MO) cultures, as well as serum acute-phase response through total protein, albumin, globulin, C-reactive protein (CRP), alpha-1-acid glycoprotein (AGP), and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) as regression markers of inflammatory response during pulmonary tuberculosis treatment. Twenty blood donors (G1) from the Blood Bank at Botucatu School of Medicine's University Hospital (BSM-UH) were evaluated once and 28 pulmonary tuberculosis patients (G2): 13 from BSM-UH and 15 from the Bauru State Health Secretariat. Patients were evaluated at three moments of treatment: before (M1), at three months (M2), and at the end (M3). Cytokines were determined in 20ml of peripheral blood (ELISA), with or without activation: lipopolysaccharide (LPS) for MO culture and phytohemagglutinin (PHA) for PBMC culture. Acute-phase protein behavior in G2 throughout treatment was: Globulins: M1> M2, M1> M3 (rho < 0.001); CRP: M1> M2> M3 (.< 0.001); AGP for men: M1> M2, M1> M3 (rho < 0.001); ESR for men: M1> M2, M1> M3 (rho < 0.0016) and for women: M1> M2 (.< 0.025). Comparison between cytokine levels found in supernatant of MO and PBMC cultures, with and without stimulus, in G1 and G2 during treatment showed: TNF-alpha (with/ without LPS) at M1: G2> G1; at M2: G2> G1 (rho < 0.001); (without LPS) at M3: G2> G1 (rho < 0.001), (with LPS) at M3: G2> G1 (rho < 0.028); IFN-. (with and without PHA) at M1: G2> G1; at M2: G2> G1 (rho < 0.001); IL-10 (with and without LPS) at M1: G2> G1; at M2: G2> G1; at M3: G2> G1 (rho < 0.001); TGF-beta (with and without LPS) at M1: G2> G1; at M2: G2> G1 (rho < 0.001), (without LPS) at M3: G2> G1 (rho < 0.001). In G2, all cytokines in supernatant of MO and PBMC cultures, with and without stimulus, showed: M1> M2> M3 (rho < 0.01). Levels of globulins, CRP, AGP, and ESR in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis before treatment (M1) were significantly higher than reference values, suggesting their use as diagnostic markers and indicators of treatment. The CRP decreasing values along treatment could be taken as a marker of the regression of inflammatory process and of response to treatment in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis.Regarding cytokines, there was significant increase in TNF-alpha, IFN-gamma, IL-10, and TGF-alpha levels before and at three months treatment, with and without stimulus; in TNF-a and IL-10 lvels, with and without stimulus, as well as in TGF-alpha levels without stimulus at six months. Patients had higher levels of all studied cytokines than controls before treatment, and these values decreased along treatment. In this study, pulmonary tuberculosis patients showed a Th0 cytokine profile before treatment, with the production of both Th1 (IFN-gamma) and Th2 (IL-10) cytokines, in addition to TNF-alpha inflammatory and TGF-alpha regulatory and fibrosis-inducer cytokines. At the end of treatment, all had evolved to Th2 profile, probably in an attempt to reduce the harmful effects of the proinflammatory activity of the Th1 cytokine profile and of the still above-normal levels of TNF-alpha. The high levels of TGF-alpha, also found in these patients, are related to its important role in the extracellular matrix deposition and fibrosis induction that characterize tuberculosis healing process. IFN-gamma was the only cytokine reaching normal levels at the end of treatment, which suggests its use as a marker of response to treatment.

Efeitos da transformação de uma variável com distribuição normal em sua inversa sobre os parâmetros de sua distribuição usando técnicas de Monte Carlo

Foram realizados quatro estudos de simulação para verificar a distribuição de inversas de variáveis com distribuição normal, em função de diferentes variâncias, médias, pontos de truncamentos e tamanhos amostrais. As variáveis simuladas foram GMD, com distribuição normal, representando o ganho médio diário e DIAS, obtido a partir da inversa de GMD, representando dias para se obter determinado peso. em todos os estudos, foi utilizado o sistema SAS® (1990) para simulação dos dados e para posterior análise dos resultados. As médias amostrais de DIAS foram dependentes dos desvios-padrão utilizados na simulação. As análises de regressão mostraram redução da média e do desvio-padrão de DIAS em função do aumento na média de GMD. A inclusão de um ponto de truncamento entre 10 e 25% do valor da média de GMD reduziu a média de GMD e aumentou a de DIAS, quando o coeficiente de variação de GMD foi superior a 25%. O efeito do tamanho dos grupos nas médias de GMD e DIAS não foi significativo, mas o desvio-padrão e CV amostrais médios de GMD aumentaram com o tamanho do grupo. em virtude da dependência entre a média e o desvio-padrão e da variação observada nos desvios-padrão de DIAS em função do tamanho do grupo, a utilização de DIAS como critério de seleção pode diminuir a acurácia da variação. Portanto, para a substituição de GMD por DIAS, é necessária a utilização de um método de análise robusto o suficiente para a eliminação da heterogeneidade de variância.

Estudo de simulação de modelos lineares mistos com distribuição normal contaminada no melhoramento genético animal

Objetivou-se com esse trabalho comparar estimativas de componentes de variâncias obtidas por meio de modelos lineares mistos Gaussianos e Robustos, via Amostrador de Gibbs, em dados simulados. Foram simulados 50 arquivos de dados com 1.000 animais cada um, distribuídos em cinco gerações, em dois níveis de efeito fixo e três valores fenotípicos distintos para uma característica hipotética, com diferentes níveis de contaminação. Exceto para os dados sem contaminação, quando os modelos foram iguais, o modelo Robusto apresentou melhores estimativas da variância residual. As estimativas de herdabilidade foram semelhantes em todos os modelos, mas as análises de regressão mostraram que os valores genéticos preditos com uso do modelo Robusto foram mais próximos dos valores genéticos verdadeiros. Esses resultados sugerem que o modelo linear normal contaminado oferece uma alternativa flexível para estimação robusta em melhoramento genético animal.

Canine corpus luteum regression: Apoptosis and caspase-3 activity

The present study evaluated the occurrence of apoptosis and caspase-3 activity in the canine corpus luteum during the period of luteal regression in eight pregnant and nine nonpregnant diestrus bitches. Intact luteal cells were obtained from corpora lutea in both peripartum pregnant bitches and nonpregnant diestrus bitches at approximately 65 d (range 63-68) after estrus, but not at days 75 and 85 in nonpregnant bitches. In all bitches, apoptotic cells were rarely detected and when present, those cells were more easily detected using the hematoxylin and eosin technique than using the critical electrolyte concentration technique. The luteal structures at 75 and 85 d of diestrus had histological characteristics similar to a corpus albicans. Caspase-3 activity was detected in morphologically normal corpora lutea from both pregnant and diestrus bitches around day 65, and also in the later structures considered corpus albicans tissue. These results suggested that apoptosis may not be the major mechanism involved in canine functional luteal regression, and that caspase-3 participated in both functional and morphological luteolysis and in the tissue reorganization involved in corpus albicans formation. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Logistic regression analysis of potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism

Objective: To identify potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE), establishing a mathematical model to predict the risk for fatal PTE and nonfatal PTE.Method: the reports on 4,813 consecutive autopsies performed from 1979 to 1998 in a Brazilian tertiary referral medical school were reviewed for a retrospective study. From the medical records and autopsy reports of the 512 patients found with macroscopically and/or microscopically,documented PTE, data on demographics, underlying diseases, and probable PTE site of origin were gathered and studied by multiple logistic regression. Thereafter, the jackknife method, a statistical cross-validation technique that uses the original study patients to validate a clinical prediction rule, was performed.Results: the autopsy rate was 50.2%, and PTE prevalence was 10.6%. In 212 cases, PTE was the main cause of death (fatal PTE). The independent variables selected by the regression significance criteria that were more likely to be associated with fatal PTE were age (odds ratio [OR], 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00 to 1.03), trauma (OR, 8.5; 95% CI, 2.20 to 32.81), right-sided cardiac thrombi (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.02 to 3.77), pelvic vein thrombi (OR, 3.46; 95% CI, 1.19 to 10.05); those most likely to be associated with nonfatal PTE were systemic arterial hypertension (OR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.80), pneumonia (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.71), and sepsis (OR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.06 to 0.40). The results obtained from the application of the equation in the 512 cases studied using logistic regression analysis suggest the range in which logit p > 0.336 favors the occurrence of fatal PTE, logit p < - 1.142 favors nonfatal PTE, and logit P with intermediate values is not conclusive. The cross-validation prediction misclassification rate was 25.6%, meaning that the prediction equation correctly classified the majority of the cases (74.4%).Conclusions: Although the usefulness of this method in everyday medical practice needs to be confirmed by a prospective study, for the time being our results suggest that concerning prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of PTE, strict attention should be given to those patients presenting the variables that are significant in the logistic regression model.

Some practical advice on polynomial regression analysis from blocked response surface designs

It is often necessary to run response surface designs in blocks. In this paper the analysis of data from such experiments, using polynomial regression models, is discussed. The definition and estimation of pure error in blocked designs are considered. It is recommended that pure error is estimated by assuming additive block and treatment effects, as this is more consistent with designs without blocking. The recovery of inter-block information using REML analysis is discussed, although it is shown that it has very little impact if thc design is nearly orthogonally blocked. Finally prediction from blocked designs is considered and it is shown that prediction of many quantities of interest is much simpler than prediction of the response itself.

Comparing three indices of catch per unit effort using Bayesian geostatistics

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Stability Predicts Genetic Diversity in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest Hotspot

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Carbon Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopic Profiles coupled to Partial Least-Squares Multivariate Regression for Prediction of Several Physicochemical Parameters of Brazilian Commercial Gasoline

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Modelos de regressão aleatória com diferentes estruturas de variância residual para descrever o tamanho da leitegada

Objetivou-se comparar modelos de regressão aleatória com diferentes estruturas de variância residual, a fim de se buscar a melhor modelagem para a característica tamanho da leitegada ao nascer (TLN). Utilizaram-se 1.701 registros de TLN, que foram analisados por meio de modelo animal, unicaracterística, de regressão aleatória. As regressões fixa e aleatórias foram representadas por funções contínuas sobre a ordem de parto, ajustadas por polinômios ortogonais de Legendre de ordem 3. Para averiguar a melhor modelagem para a variância residual, considerou-se a heterogeneidade de variância por meio de 1 a 7 classes de variância residual. O modelo geral de análise incluiu grupo de contemporâneo como efeito fixo; os coeficientes de regressão fixa para modelar a trajetória média da população; os coeficientes de regressão aleatória do efeito genético aditivo-direto, do comum-de-leitegada e do de ambiente permanente de animal; e o efeito aleatório residual. O teste da razão de verossimilhança, o critério de informação de Akaike e o critério de informação bayesiano de Schwarz apontaram o modelo que considerou homogeneidade de variância como o que proporcionou melhor ajuste aos dados utilizados. As herdabilidades obtidas foram próximas a zero (0,002 a 0,006). O efeito de ambiente permanente foi crescente da 1ª (0,06) à 5ª (0,28) ordem, mas decrescente desse ponto até a 7ª ordem (0,18). O comum-de-leitegada apresentou valores baixos (0,01 a 0,02). A utilização de homogeneidade de variância residual foi mais adequada para modelar as variâncias associadas à característica tamanho da leitegada ao nascer nesse conjunto de dado.

Logistic regression to estimate the welfare of broiler breeders in relation to environmental and behavioral variables

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)