Evolving from inferences to decisions in the interpretation of scientific evidence

Le travail d'un(e) expert(e) en science forensique exige que ce dernier (cette dernière) prenne une série de décisions. Ces décisions sont difficiles parce qu'elles doivent être prises dans l'inévitable présence d'incertitude, dans le contexte unique des circonstances qui entourent la décision, et, parfois, parce qu'elles sont complexes suite à de nombreuse variables aléatoires et dépendantes les unes des autres. Etant donné que ces décisions peuvent aboutir à des conséquences sérieuses dans l'administration de la justice, la prise de décisions en science forensique devrait être soutenue par un cadre robuste qui fait des inférences en présence d'incertitudes et des décisions sur la base de ces inférences. L'objectif de cette thèse est de répondre à ce besoin en présentant un cadre théorique pour faire des choix rationnels dans des problèmes de décisions rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique. L'inférence et la théorie de la décision bayésienne satisfont les conditions nécessaires pour un tel cadre théorique. Pour atteindre son objectif, cette thèse consiste de trois propositions, recommandant l'utilisation (1) de la théorie de la décision, (2) des réseaux bayésiens, et (3) des réseaux bayésiens de décision pour gérer des problèmes d'inférence et de décision forensiques. Les résultats présentent un cadre uniforme et cohérent pour faire des inférences et des décisions en science forensique qui utilise les concepts théoriques ci-dessus. Ils décrivent comment organiser chaque type de problème en le décomposant dans ses différents éléments, et comment trouver le meilleur plan d'action en faisant la distinction entre des problèmes de décision en une étape et des problèmes de décision en deux étapes et en y appliquant le principe de la maximisation de l'utilité espérée. Pour illustrer l'application de ce cadre à des problèmes rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique, des études de cas théoriques appliquent la théorie de la décision, les réseaux bayésiens et les réseaux bayésiens de décision à une sélection de différents types de problèmes d'inférence et de décision impliquant différentes catégories de traces. Deux études du problème des deux traces illustrent comment la construction de réseaux bayésiens permet de gérer des problèmes d'inférence complexes, et ainsi surmonter l'obstacle de la complexité qui peut être présent dans des problèmes de décision. Trois études-une sur ce qu'il faut conclure d'une recherche dans une banque de données qui fournit exactement une correspondance, une sur quel génotype il faut rechercher dans une banque de données sur la base des observations faites sur des résultats de profilage d'ADN, et une sur s'il faut soumettre une trace digitale à un processus qui compare la trace avec des empreintes de sources potentielles-expliquent l'application de la théorie de la décision et des réseaux bayésiens de décision à chacune de ces décisions. Les résultats des études des cas théoriques soutiennent les trois propositions avancées dans cette thèse. Ainsi, cette thèse présente un cadre uniforme pour organiser et trouver le plan d'action le plus rationnel dans des problèmes de décisions rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique. Le cadre proposé est un outil interactif et exploratoire qui permet de mieux comprendre un problème de décision afin que cette compréhension puisse aboutir à des choix qui sont mieux informés. - Forensic science casework involves making a sériés of choices. The difficulty in making these choices lies in the inévitable presence of uncertainty, the unique context of circumstances surrounding each décision and, in some cases, the complexity due to numerous, interrelated random variables. Given that these décisions can lead to serious conséquences in the admin-istration of justice, forensic décision making should be supported by a robust framework that makes inferences under uncertainty and décisions based on these inferences. The objective of this thesis is to respond to this need by presenting a framework for making rational choices in décision problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories. Bayesian inference and décision theory meets the requirements for such a framework. To attain its objective, this thesis consists of three propositions, advocating the use of (1) décision theory, (2) Bayesian networks, and (3) influence diagrams for handling forensic inference and décision problems. The results present a uniform and coherent framework for making inferences and décisions in forensic science using the above theoretical concepts. They describe how to organize each type of problem by breaking it down into its différent elements, and how to find the most rational course of action by distinguishing between one-stage and two-stage décision problems and applying the principle of expected utility maximization. To illustrate the framework's application to the problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories, theoretical case studies apply décision theory, Bayesian net-works and influence diagrams to a selection of différent types of inference and décision problems dealing with différent catégories of trace evidence. Two studies of the two-trace problem illustrate how the construction of Bayesian networks can handle complex inference problems, and thus overcome the hurdle of complexity that can be present in décision prob-lems. Three studies-one on what to conclude when a database search provides exactly one hit, one on what genotype to search for in a database based on the observations made on DNA typing results, and one on whether to submit a fingermark to the process of comparing it with prints of its potential sources-explain the application of décision theory and influ¬ence diagrams to each of these décisions. The results of the theoretical case studies support the thesis's three propositions. Hence, this thesis présents a uniform framework for organizing and finding the most rational course of action in décision problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories. The proposed framework is an interactive and exploratory tool for better understanding a décision problem so that this understanding may lead to better informed choices.

Forensic identification of urine samples: a comparison between nuclear and mitochondrial DNA markers.

Urine samples from 20 male volunteers of European Caucasian origin were stored at 4 degrees C over a 4-month period in order to compare the identification potential of nuclear DNA (nDNA) and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) markers. The amount of nDNA recovered from urines dramatically declined over time. Consequently, nDNA likelihood ratios (LRs) greater than 1,000 were obtained for 100, 70 and 55% of the urines analysed after 6, 60 and 120 days, respectively. For the mtDNA, HVI and HVII sequences were obtained for all samples tested, whatever the period considered. Nevertheless, the highest mtDNA LR of 435 was relatively low compared to its nDNA equivalent. Indeed, LRs obtained with only three nDNA loci could easily exceed this value and are quite easier to obtain. Overall, the joint use of nDNA and mtDNA markers enabled the 20 urine samples to be identified, even after the 4-month period.

Quality of life transformations before and after kidney transplantation: A prospective qualitative study.

The aim of this IRB-approved study was to analyze prospectively quality of life (QOL) and psychological changes in 30 ESRD patients before and after kidney transplantation (KT). Semi-structured interviews were conducted after inclusion on the waiting list (A). Follow-up interviews were performed 6 months later with patients still awaiting KT (B6, n= 15), and with transplant recipients 6, 12 and 24 months after KT (C6, n=15; C12, n=15; C24, n=14). Qualitative thematic analysis was performed. A: All patients reported loss of freedom, 87% tried to maintain normality; 57% modified medical directives. All mentioned emotional fragility, negative thoughts (43%), and suicidal thoughts (20%) related to loss of QOL from dialysis (D), and professional tension (26%). B6: 40% reported no change compared to baseline, while 60% mentioned increase of illness intrusiveness, 46% D side effects, 40% communication problems, and 33% concerns about the waiting list handling. Fear of emotional breakdown (40%), couple problems (47%), and worsened professional difficulties (20%) were reported. C6: All patients reported recovery of QOL and concerns about acute rejection. 73% were anxious about laboratory results. 93% felt dependent on immunosuppressants (IS), 47% reported difficulties coping with their regimen, and 47% were concerned about side effects; 67% had resumed work, but medical constraints led 40% to professional stigmatization. C12: All enjoyed good QOL. Adherence to IS was mandatory (100%). All were aware of the limited long-term graft survival and 47% anxious about a possible return to D. 60% underlined positive life value; 47% resumed a full time job; 40% were on social security. C24: Good QOL was underlined (86%). Patients stated they would prefer re-TX to resuming D (71%). Post-TX health problems were mentioned (64%); increase of creatinine levels induced fear (36%). 79% complained about side effects. 64% reported changes in life values. This study reveals positive QOL and psychological transformations after KT, which are associated with positive changes related to graft survival and freedom from D. Psychological follow-up should be offered to patients who face relapsing ESRD or post-TX co-morbidities.

Swain: Stata module to correct the SEM chi-square overidentification test in small sample sizes or complex models. Statistical Software Components S457617, Boston College Department of Economics.

Swain corrects the chi-square overidentification test (i.e., likelihood ratio test of fit) for structural equation models whethr with or without latent variables. The chi-square statistic is asymptotically correct; however, it does not behave as expected in small samples and/or when the model is complex (cf. Herzog, Boomsma, & Reinecke, 2007). Thus, particularly in situations where the ratio of sample size (n) to the number of parameters estimated (p) is relatively small (i.e., the p to n ratio is large), the chi-square test will tend to overreject correctly specified models. To obtain a closer approximation to the distribution of the chi-square statistic, Swain (1975) developed a correction; this scaling factor, which converges to 1 asymptotically, is multiplied with the chi-square statistic. The correction better approximates the chi-square distribution resulting in more appropriate Type 1 reject error rates (see Herzog & Boomsma, 2009; Herzog, et al., 2007).

Iowa Workers’ Compensation Manual, July 1, 2005 - June 30, 2006

This booklet has been prepared by the Division of Workers’ Compensation to provide information and guidelines in handling Iowa workers’ compensation claims. For more detailed information, reference should be made to Iowa Code chapters 85 through 87, 17A and chapter 876 of the Iowa Administrative Code.

Research involving biological material from forensic autopsies: legal and ethical issues.

Recommendations and laws do not always contain specific and clear provisions on the use of cadaveric material in research, and even more rarely do they address explicitly the ethical issues related to research on material obtained during forensic autopsy. In this article we analyse existing legal frameworks in Europe by comparing the legal provisions in 2 European Countries which are member states of the Council of Europe, the UK and Switzerland. They were chosen because they have distinct legal frameworks that make comparisons interesting. In addition, the detailed laws of the UK and a specific law project and national ethical recommendations in Switzerland permit us to define more clearly the legal range of options for researchers using cadaveric material obtained during forensic investigations. The Human Tissue Act 2004 in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, its Scottish equivalent with the same title (2006) and the national ethical guidelines in Switzerland all require consent from the deceased person, an appropriate relative or a person with power of attorney for healthcare decisions before cadaveric biological material can be obtained and used for research. However, if the purpose of the autopsy is purely forensic, no such authorization will be sought to carry out the autopsy and related analyses, which might include genetic testing. In order to be allowed to carry out future research projects, families need to be approached for informed consent, unless the deceased person had left written directives including permission to use his or her tissues for research.

Kun pelko astuu lavalle : eli kuinka opin elämään esiintymisjännityksen kanssa

This thesis focuses on stage fright; what it is and how to find the ideal solution in connection with stage fright. To find the way toward free expression; to find the way from lack of control to con-trol. It also describes how to learn to live with stage fright. Different experiences of stage fright have been used as source material, along with relevant theoretical information. The thesis highlights the importance of handling stage fright and studies stage fright in-depth, with examples. It presents studies and collected theories according to Päivi Arjas. It discusses presence and contact in the work of an actor with reference to the Gestalt method. It also presents methods of reducing stage fright. Ideal presence on stage is addressed, and how to turn stage fright into a positive thing. Finally, it considers the good aspects of stage fright in more deepth and goes through learning to live with stage fright. The thesis concludes that it is possible to heal stage fright. Gestalt methodology was of assistance with the healing process, with becoming conscious of symptoms, and thus in finding one's own way of turning anxious suspense into a positive way forward.

Ilmanvaihtokoneen ohjauksen taloudellisuusvaikutukset

Tämän insinöörityön tarkoituksena oli luoda Insinööritoimisto Olof Granlund Oy:lle malliprojekti ilmanvaihtokoneen ohjauksen mahdollisesta sähköenergian säästöpotentiaalista. Insinöörityötä voidaan myöhemmin käyttää referenssinä tarjottaessa yrityksen palvelua asiakkaille energiakatselmointityössä kiinteistöihin, joissa on suuria ilmanvaihtokone-yksiköitä. Ensin työssä esitellään käytössä olevat, tutkittavat ilmanvaihtokoneet ja niiden toiminta. Sitten selvitetään ilmanvaihtolaitteiden ja niiden ohjauksen eri osien toiminta, sekä ohjausinformaatio, joka välittyy eri laitteiden välillä. Seuraavaksi työssä tutkitaan rakennusautomaation osuutta, sen hyötyä ja rakennetta kiinteistössä. Tämän jälkeen selvitetään hankkeen viranomaismääräykset. Sitten selvitetään, mistä koostuvat kustannukset ilmanvaihtokoneen ohjauksen uusimisessa. Lopuksi vielä tutkitaan, kuinka pitkä on tehtävän investoinnin takaisinmaksuaika, sekä mitkä ovat saneerauksen hiilidioksidi-päästövaikutukset. insinöörityön Lopputuloksena syntyi yrityksen sisäinen kansio. Kansion esimerkkilaskelmia ja laskentamenetelmiä on tarkoitus käyttää jatkossa referenssinä kiinteistönpito-osastolla sähkö- ja lvi-ryhmissä, niiden henkilöiden käytössä, jotka ovat tekemisissä energiakatselmointien kanssa.

The short arm of the law: judicial institutions and local governance in Brazil

This paper estimates the effect of judicial institutions on governance at the local level in Brazil. Our estimation strategy exploits a unique institutional feature of state judiciary branches which assigns prosecutors and judges to the most populous among contiguous counties forming a judiciary district. As a result of this assignment mechanism there are counties with nearly identical populations, some with and some without local judicial presence, which we exploit to impute counterfactual outcomes. Conditional on observable county characteristics, offenses per civil servant are about 35% lower in counties that have a local seat of the state judiciary. The lower incidence of infractions stems mostly from fewer violations of financial management regulations by local administrators, fewer instances of problems in project execution and project managment, fewer cases of non-existent or ineffective civil society oversight and fewer cases of improper handling of remittances to local residents.

Productivity Growth during the English Industrial Revolution: A Dual Approach

This paper presents new estimates of total factor productivity growth in Britain for the period 1770-1860. We use a dual technique recently popularized by Hsieh (1999), and argue that the estimates we derive from factor prices are of similar quality to quantity-based calculations. Our results provide further evidence, derived from this independent set of sources, that productivity growth during the British Industrial Revolution was relatively slow. During the years 1770-1800, TFP growth was close to zero, according to our estimates. The period 1800-1830 experienced an acceleration of productivity growth. The Crafts-Harley view of the Industrial Revolution is thus reinforced. We also consider alternative explanations of slow productivity growth, and reject the interpretation that focuses on the introduction of steam as a general purpose technology.

Optimal Contracts, Adverse Selection, and Social Preferences: An Experiment

It has long been standard in agency theory to search for incentive-compatible mechanisms on the assumption that people care only about their own material wealth. However, this assumption is clearly refuted by numerous experiments, and we feel that it may be useful to consider nonpecuniary utility in mechanism design and contract theory. Accordingly, we devise an experiment to explore optimal contracts in an adverse-selection context. A principal proposes one of three contract menus, each of which offers a choice of two incentive-compatible contracts, to two agents whose types are unknown to the principal. The agents know the set of possible menus, and choose to either accept one of the two contracts offered in the proposed menu or to reject the menu altogether; a rejection by either agent leads to lower (and equal) reservation payoffs for all parties. While all three possible menus favor the principal, they do so to varying degrees. We observe numerous rejections of the more lopsided menus, and approach an equilibrium where one of the more equitable contract menus (which one depends on the reservation payoffs) is proposed and agents accept a contract, selecting actions according to their types. Behavior is largely consistent with all recent models of social preferences, strongly suggesting there is value in considering nonpecuniary utility in agency theory.

Instrumental and ethical aspects of experimental research with animal models

Experimental animal models offer possibilities of physiology knowledge, pathogenesis of disease and action of drugs that are directly related to quality nursing care. This integrative review describes the current state of the instrumental and ethical aspects of experimental research with animal models, including the main recommendations of ethics committees that focus on animal welfare and raises questions about the impact of their findings in nursing care. Data show that, in Brazil, the progress in ethics for the use of animals for scientific purposes was consolidated with Law No. 11.794/2008 establishing ethical procedures, attending health, genetic and experimental parameters. The application of ethics in handling of animals for scientific and educational purposes and obtaining consistent and quality data brings unquestionable contributions to the nurse, as they offer subsidies to relate pathophysiological mechanisms and the clinical aspect on the patient.

Effect of sodium loading/depletion on renal oxygenation in young normotensive and hypertensive men.

The goal of this study was to investigate the effect of sodium intake on renal tissue oxygenation in humans. To this purpose, we measured renal hemodynamics, renal sodium handling, and renal oxygenation in normotensive (NT) and hypertensive (HT) subjects after 1 week of a high-sodium and 1 week of a low-sodium diet. Renal oxygenation was measured using blood oxygen level-dependent magnetic resonance. Tissue oxygenation was determined by the measurement of R2* maps on 4 coronal slices covering both kidneys. The mean R2* values in the medulla and cortex were calculated, with a low R2* indicating a high tissue oxygenation. Ten male NT (mean age: 26.5+/-7.4 years) and 8 matched HT subjects (mean age: 28.8+/-5.7 years) were studied. Cortical R2* was not different under the 2 conditions of salt intake. Medullary R2* was significantly lower under low sodium than high sodium in both NT and HT subjects (28.1+/-0.8 versus 31.3+/-0.6 s(-1); P<0.05 in NT; and 27.9+/-1.5 versus 30.3+/-0.8 s(-1); P<0.05, in HT), indicating higher medullary oxygenation under low-sodium conditions. In NT subjects, medullary oxygenation was positively correlated with proximal reabsorption of sodium and negatively with absolute distal sodium reabsorption, but not with renal plasma flow. In HT subjects, medullary oxygenation correlated with the 24-hour sodium excretion but not with proximal or with the distal handling of sodium. These data demonstrate that dietary sodium intake influences renal tissue oxygenation, low sodium intake leading to an increased renal medullary oxygenation both in normotensive and young hypertensive subjects.

Successful Tree Planting, March 2002

Advance planning, proper species selection, site preparation, careful handling of tree seedlings, and a good weed control program will help assure a successful tree planting. A commitment to plant with care, is an important first step that leads to successful establishment of tree and shrub seedlings.

Psychological transformations in kidney transplantation: A prospective qualitative study

The aim of this IRB-approved study was to prospectively analyze psychological transformations in ESRD patients before and after transplantation (KT). Semi-structured interviews were conducted in 30 patients (mean age = 53±10) after their inclusion on the waiting-list (Gr. A). Follow-up interviews were performed 6 months later in 15 patients still awaiting KT (Gr. B6), and in 15 patients 6 months (Gr. C6) and 12 months (Gr. C12) after KT. Qualitative analysis was performed. Gr: A:All patients underlined loss of freedom, 87% devoted much energy to maintain normality, 57% modified medical directives. All reported emotional fragility related to dialysis and loss of quality of life (QOL), negative (43%) or suicidal thoughts (20%). Professional stigma was underlined (26%). Gr: B6:40% reported no change, 60% mentioned increase of illness intrusiveness, 46% dialysis side-effects, 40% communication problems, 33% tension with medical staff and waiting list handling. Fear of emotional breakdown (40%), couple problems (47%) and worsened professional difficulties (20%) were reported. Gr: C6:All patients mentioned improved QOL and freedom recovery (87%). All expressed concerns about possible acute rejection, 73% were anxious about laboratory results, 93% experienced dependence to immunosuppressants, 47% reported difficulties in handling medication, 21% feared to forget them, 47% were concerned about side-effects, 67% had resumed work but medical constraints led to professional tension (40%). Gr: C12:All mentioned recovered QOL. Medical controls were accepted as a routine (87%) and adherence to medication was mandatory (100%). All mentioned the limited long-term graft survival and 47% were anxious about possible return to dialysis, especially younger patients (27%). Positive identity and existential changes were reported (60%). This prospective qualitative study identifies psychological modifications in the course of KT. It provides a basis to adequately address concerns, but it shows also that KT is clearly associated with positive psychological transformations.