Bayesian Analysis for Errors in Variables with Changepoint Models

Changepoint regression models have originally been developed in connection with applications in quality control, where a change from the in-control to the out-of-control state has to be detected based on the avaliable random observations. Up to now various changepoint models have been suggested for differents applications like reliability, econometrics or medicine. In many practical situations the covariate cannot be measured precisely and an alternative model are the errors in variable regression models. In this paper we study the regression model with errors in variables with changepoint from a Bayesian approach. From the simulation study we found that the proposed procedure produces estimates suitable for the changepoint and all other model parameters.

Influence of nutritional variables and obesity on health and metabolism

Influence of nutritional variables and obesity on health and metabolism Obesity is a recurring theme in current scientific literature. This can easily be explained by its exponential increase in all layers of society. The popularity of this subject has also given rise to associated questions, which have achieved greater prominence in health-related publications. In order to assess what has been studied in the field of obesity and nutrition, an overview of all articles published on these subjects in some of the main Brazilian scientific journals over the past two years was performed. Among the subthemes selected for this study, those related to childhood obesity attracted attention due to their greater frequency. These were subdivided into: prevalence, intrauterine and breastfeeding influences that may lead to the development of this condition, impact on quality of life, cardiovascular system and metabolism, and possible prevention strategies. Furthermore, issues related to obesity in adults were explored, such as risk factors and new strategies for prevention, with special attention given to the many studies evaluating different aspects of bariatric surgery. Finally, the subject of malnutrition and the impact of the deficiency of specific micronutrients such as selenium, vitamin D, and vitamin B12 were assessed. Based on the results, it was possible to assess the actual importance of obesity and nutrition in health maintenance, and also the several lines of research regarding these issues. Thus, it is essential to create new methods, which must be quick and efficient, to update health professionals involved in the treatment of obesity.

VVV DR1: The first data release of the Milky Way bulge and southern plane from the near-infrared ESO public survey VISTA variables in the Via Lactea

Context. The ESO public survey VISTA variables in the Via Lactea (VVV) started in 2010. VVV targets 562 sq. deg in the Galactic bulge and an adjacent plane region and is expected to run for about five years. Aims. We describe the progress of the survey observations in the first observing season, the observing strategy, and quality of the data obtained. Methods. The observations are carried out on the 4-m VISTA telescope in the ZYJHK(s) filters. In addition to the multi-band imaging the variability monitoring campaign in the K-s filter has started. Data reduction is carried out using the pipeline at the Cambridge Astronomical Survey Unit. The photometric and astrometric calibration is performed via the numerous 2MASS sources observed in each pointing. Results. The first data release contains the aperture photometry and astrometric catalogues for 348 individual pointings in the ZYJHK(s) filters taken in the 2010 observing season. The typical image quality is similar to 0 ''.9-1 ''.0. The stringent photometric and image quality requirements of the survey are satisfied in 100% of the JHK(s) images in the disk area and 90% of the JHK(s) images in the bulge area. The completeness in the Z and Y images is 84% in the disk, and 40% in the bulge. The first season catalogues contain 1.28 x 10(8) stellar sources in the bulge and 1.68 x 10(8) in the disk area detected in at least one of the photometric bands. The combined, multi-band catalogues contain more than 1.63 x 10(8) stellar sources. About 10% of these are double detections because of overlapping adjacent pointings. These overlapping multiple detections are used to characterise the quality of the data. The images in the JHK(s) bands extend typically similar to 4 mag deeper than 2MASS. The magnitude limit and photometric quality depend strongly on crowding in the inner Galactic regions. The astrometry for K-s = 15-18 mag has rms similar to 35-175 mas. Conclusions. The VVV Survey data products offer a unique dataset to map the stellar populations in the Galactic bulge and the adjacent plane and provide an exciting new tool for the study of the structure, content, and star-formation history of our Galaxy, as well as for investigations of the newly discovered star clusters, star-forming regions in the disk, high proper motion stars, asteroids, planetary nebulae, and other interesting objects.

Juvenile myoclonic epilepsy: The impact of clinical variables and psychiatric disorders on executive profile assessed with a comprehensive neuropsychological battery

Executive dysfunction is reported in juvenile myoclonic epilepsy (JME). However, batteries employed in previous studies included no more than three tests of executive function. In this study, we aimed to assess executive and attentional functions in JME using a comprehensive battery of eight tests (encompassing fifteen subtests). We also evaluated neuropsychological profiles using a clinical criterion of severity and correlated these findings with epilepsy clinical variables and the presence of psychiatric disorders. We prospectively evaluated 42 patients with JME and a matched control group with Digit Span tests (forward and backward), Stroop Color-Word Test, Trail Making Test, Wisconsin Card-Sorting Test, Matching Familiar Figures Test and Word Fluency Test. We estimated IQ with the Matrix Reasoning and Vocabulary subtests of the Wechsler Abbreviated Intelligence Scale. The patients with JME showed specific deficits in working memory, inhibitory control, concept formation, goal maintenance, mental flexibility, and verbal fluency. We observed attentional deficits in processes such as alertness and attention span and those requiring sustained and divided attention. We found that 83.33% of the patients had moderate or severe executive dysfunction. In addition, attentional and executive impairment was correlated with higher frequency of seizures and the presence of psychiatric disorders. Furthermore, executive dysfunction correlated with a longer duration of epilepsy. Our findings indicate the need for comprehensive neuropsychological batteries in patients with JME, in order to provide a more extensive evaluation of attentional and executive functions and to show that some relevant deficits have been overlooked. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Signal propagation in Bayesian networks and its relationship with intrinsically multivariate predictive variables

A set of predictor variables is said to be intrinsically multivariate predictive (IMP) for a target variable if all properly contained subsets of the predictor set are poor predictors of the. target but the full set predicts the target with great accuracy. In a previous article, the main properties of IMP Boolean variables have been analytically described, including the introduction of the IMP score, a metric based on the coefficient of determination (CoD) as a measure of predictiveness with respect to the target variable. It was shown that the IMP score depends on four main properties: logic of connection, predictive power, covariance between predictors and marginal predictor probabilities (biases). This paper extends that work to a broader context, in an attempt to characterize properties of discrete Bayesian networks that contribute to the presence of variables (network nodes) with high IMP scores. We have found that there is a relationship between the IMP score of a node and its territory size, i.e., its position along a pathway with one source: nodes far from the source display larger IMP scores than those closer to the source, and longer pathways display larger maximum IMP scores. This appears to be a consequence of the fact that nodes with small territory have larger probability of having highly covariate predictors, which leads to smaller IMP scores. In addition, a larger number of XOR and NXOR predictive logic relationships has positive influence over the maximum IMP score found in the pathway. This work presents analytical results based on a simple structure network and an analysis involving random networks constructed by computational simulations. Finally, results from a real Bayesian network application are provided. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A modified Primal-Dual Logarithmic-Barrier Method for solving the Optimal Power Flow problem with discrete and continuous control variables

The aim of solving the Optimal Power Flow problem is to determine the optimal state of an electric power transmission system, that is, the voltage magnitude and phase angles and the tap ratios of the transformers that optimize the performance of a given system, while satisfying its physical and operating constraints. The Optimal Power Flow problem is modeled as a large-scale mixed-discrete nonlinear programming problem. This paper proposes a method for handling the discrete variables of the Optimal Power Flow problem. A penalty function is presented. Due to the inclusion of the penalty function into the objective function, a sequence of nonlinear programming problems with only continuous variables is obtained and the solutions of these problems converge to a solution of the mixed problem. The obtained nonlinear programming problems are solved by a Primal-Dual Logarithmic-Barrier Method. Numerical tests using the IEEE 14, 30, 118 and 300-Bus test systems indicate that the method is efficient. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ground-level ozone prediction using a neural network model based on meteorological variables and applied to the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo

A neural network model to predict ozone concentration in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area was developed, based on average values of meteorological variables in the morning (8:00-12:00 hr) and afternoon (13:00-17: 00 hr) periods. Outputs are the maximum and average ozone concentrations in the afternoon (12:00-17:00 hr). The correlation coefficient between computed and measured values was 0.82 and 0.88 for the maximum and average ozone concentration, respectively. The model presented good performance as a prediction tool for the maximum ozone concentration. For prediction periods from 1 to 5 days 0 to 23% failures (95% confidence) were obtained.

Sleep length, working hours and socio-demographic variables are associated with time attending evening classes among working college students

It is the aim of the present study to assess factors associated with time spent in class among working college students. Eighty-two working students from 21 to 26 years old participated in this study. They were enrolled in an evening course of the University of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Participants answered a questionnaire on living and working conditions. During seven consecutive days, they wore an actigraph, filled out daily activity diaries (including time spent in classes) and the Karolinska Sleepiness Scale every three hours from waking until bedtime. Linear regression analyses were performed in order to assess the variables associated with time spent in classes. The results showed that gender, sleep length, excessive sleepiness, alcoholic beverage consumption (during workdays) and working hours were associated factors with time spent in class. Thus, those who spent less time in class were males, slept longer hours, reported excessive sleepiness on Saturdays, worked longer hours, and reported alcohol consumption. The combined effects of long work hours (>40 h/week) and reduced sleep length may affect lifestyles and academic performance. Future studies should aim to look at adverse health effects induced by reduced sleep duration, even among working students who spent more time attending evening classes.

Work ability among hospital food service professionals: multiple associated variables require comprehensive intervention

The work of hospital food service is characterized by demands that can be associated with work ability - WA. The aim of this study was to evaluate factors associated with WA among hospital food service professionals and recommend intervention measures. This is a cross sectional study carried out in 2009, conducted in a hospital of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Participants were 76 (96.2%) of the eligible. They filled out a questionnaire including socio-demographic data, life styles, working conditions and WA. Multivariate linear regression analyses were performed. Factors associated with WA were age (p=0.051), over commitment (p=0.011), effort-reward ratio (p=0.002) and work injuries (p<0.001). In spite was a young population, age was associated with WA. Association with work injuries is consistent with the theoretical model that demonstrated that health status is the basis to maintain the WA. The association of effort-reward imbalance shows that issues related with work organization are relevant for these workers. The association of overcommittment suggests that workers recognize their responsibility with the therapeutic processes of patients. Results showed a number of features of different nature that should be taken into account when implementing measures to improve the WA, to be applied at different levels: individual, task and institutional.

Chest associated to motor physiotherapy improves cardiovascular variables in newborns with respiratory distress syndrome

Background We aimed to evaluate the effects of chest and motor physiotherapy treatment on hemodynamic variables in preterm newborns with respiratory distress syndrome. Methods We evaluated heart rate (HR), respiratory rate (RR), systolic (SAP), mean (MAP) and diastolic arterial pressure (DAP), temperature and oxygen saturation (SO2%) in 44 newborns with respiratory distress syndrome. We compared all variables between before physiotherapy treatment vs. after the last physiotherapy treatment. Newborns were treated during 11 days. Variables were measured 2 minutes before and 5 minutes after each physiotherapy treatment. We applied paired Student t test to compare variables between the two periods. Results HR (148.5 ± 8.5 bpm vs. 137.1 ± 6.8 bpm - p < 0.001), SAP (72.3 ± 11.3 mmHg vs. 63.6 ± 6.7 mmHg - p = 0.001) and MAP (57.5 ± 12 mmHg vs. 47.7 ± 5.8 mmHg - p = 0.001) were significantly reduced after 11 days of physiotherapy treatment compared to before the first session. There were no significant changes regarding RR, temperature, DAP and SO2%. Conclusions Chest and motor physiotherapy improved cardiovascular parameters in respiratory distress syndrome newborns.

Degree of multicollinearity and variables involved in linear dependence in additive-dominant models

The objective of this work was to assess the degree of multicollinearity and to identify the variables involved in linear dependence relations in additive-dominant models. Data of birth weight (n=141,567), yearling weight (n=58,124), and scrotal circumference (n=20,371) of Montana Tropical composite cattle were used. Diagnosis of multicollinearity was based on the variance inflation factor (VIF) and on the evaluation of the condition indexes and eigenvalues from the correlation matrix among explanatory variables. The first model studied (RM) included the fixed effect of dam age class at calving and the covariates associated to the direct and maternal additive and non-additive effects. The second model (R) included all the effects of the RM model except the maternal additive effects. Multicollinearity was detected in both models for all traits considered, with VIF values of 1.03 - 70.20 for RM and 1.03 - 60.70 for R. Collinearity increased with the increase of variables in the model and the decrease in the number of observations, and it was classified as weak, with condition index values between 10.00 and 26.77. In general, the variables associated with additive and non-additive effects were involved in multicollinearity, partially due to the natural connection between these covariables as fractions of the biological types in breed composition.

An analysis of Taguchi's on-line quality monitoring procedure for variables based on the results of a sequence of inspections

In this paper, a procedure for the on-line process control of variables is proposed. This procedure consists of inspecting the m-th item from every m produced items and deciding, at each inspection, whether the process is out-of-control. Two sets of limits, warning (µ0 ± W) and control (µ0 ± C), are used. If the value of the monitored statistic falls beyond the control limits or if a sequence of h observations falls between the warning limits and the control limits, the production is stopped for adjustment; otherwise, production goes on. The properties of an ergodic Markov chain are used to obtain an expression for the average cost per item. The parameters (the sampling interval m, the widths of the warning, the control limits W and C(W < C), and the sequence length (h) are optimized by minimizing the cost function. A numerical example illustrates the proposed procedure.

Performance of six diagnostic tests to screen for Chagas disease in blood banks and prevalence of Trypanosoma cruzi infection among donors with inconclusive serology screening based on the analysis of epidemiological variables

OBJECTIVE: The frequent occurrence of inconclusive serology in blood banks and the absence of a gold standard test for Chagas'disease led us to examine the efficacy of the blood culture test and five commercial tests (ELISA, IIF, HAI, c-ELISA, rec-ELISA) used in screening blood donors for Chagas disease, as well as to investigate the prevalence of Trypanosoma cruzi infection among donors with inconclusive serology screening in respect to some epidemiological variables. METHODS: To obtain estimates of interest we considered a Bayesian latent class model with inclusion of covariates from the logit link. RESULTS: A better performance was observed with some categories of epidemiological variables. In addition, all pairs of tests (excluding the blood culture test) presented as good alternatives for both screening (sensitivity > 99.96% in parallel testing) and for confirmation (specificity > 99.93% in serial testing) of Chagas disease. The prevalence of 13.30% observed in the stratum of donors with inconclusive serology, means that probably most of these are non-reactive serology. In addition, depending on the level of specific epidemiological variables, the absence of infection can be predicted with a probability of 100% in this group from the pairs of tests using parallel testing. CONCLUSION: The epidemiological variables can lead to improved test results and thus assist in the clarification of inconclusive serology screening results. Moreover, all combinations of pairs using the five commercial tests are good alternatives to confirm results.

Invasion of the dinoflagellate Ceratium furcoides (Levander) Langhans 1925 at tropical reservoir and its relation to environmental variables

Dinoflagellates of the genus Ceratium are chiefly marine but there are rare occurrences in freshwater. In this study we analyze the invasion and progressive establishment of Ceratium furcoides, an exotic species, in the Furnas Reservoir. Samples were taken at 36 points in the reservoir, during the months of March, June, September and December, 2007. Measurements of some physical and chemical variables were simultaneously performed at each site. The occurrence of C. furcoides was registered at 20 sites, with densities varying between 0.57 and 28,564,913.0 ind.m-3. Blooms of this species were recorded in points which were classified as mesotrophic, coinciding with the places receiving high amounts of untreated domestic sewage. C. furcoides density was correlated with temperature, nutrients (nitrate and nitrite) and water electric conductivity. The highest density was recorded in June when temperature was low. The presence of Ceratium furcoides in the reservoir apparently has not yet affected the reservoir water quality or other plankton communities. However, if it becomes fully established it could perhaps become a problem in the reservoir or even to spread out to other reservoirs in Rio Grande basin.

Space-temporal dynamics of limnological variables in a floodplain wetland located at Ribeira do Iguape Valley (São Paulo, Brazil) at different hydrological periods

AIM: The main goal of this research was to investigate the influence of the hydrological pulses on the space-temporal dynamics of physical and chemical variables in a wetland adjacent to Jacupiranguinha River (São Paulo, Brazil); METHODS: Eleven sampling points were distributed among the wetland, a tributary by its left side and the adjacent river. Four samplings were carried out, covering the rainy and the dry periods. Measures of pH, dissolved oxygen, electrical conductivity and redox potential were taken in regular intervals of the water column using a multiparametric probe. Water samples were collected for the nitrogen and total phosphorus analysis, as well as their dissolved fractions (dissolved inorganic phosphorus, total dissolved phosphorus, ammoniacal nitrogen and nitrate). Total alkalinity and suspended solids were also quantified; RESULTS: The Multivariate Analysis of Variance showed the influence of the seasonality on the variability of the investigated variables, while the Principal Component Analysis gave rise in two statistical significant axes, which delimited two groups representative of the rainy and dry periods. Hydrological pulses from Jacupiranguinha River, besides contributing to the inputs of nutrients and sediments during the period of connectivity, accounted for the decrease in spatial gradients in the wetland. This "homogenization effect" was evidenced by the Cluster Analysis. The research also showed an industrial raw effluent as the main point source of phosphorus to the Jacupiranguinha River and, indirectly, to the wetland; CONCLUSIONS: Therefore, considering the scarcity of information about the wetlands in the study area, this research, besides contributing to the understanding of the influence of hydrological pulses on the investigated environmental variables, showed the need for adoption of conservation policies of these ecosystems face the increase anthropic pressures that they have been submitted, which may result in lack of their ecological, social and economic functions.