Prediction of the bulking phenomenon in wastewater treatment plants

The control and prediction of wastewater treatment plants poses an important goal: to avoid breaking the environmental balance by always keeping the system in stable operating conditions. It is known that qualitative information — coming from microscopic examinations and subjective remarks — has a deep influence on the activated sludge process. In particular, on the total amount of effluent suspended solids, one of the measures of overall plant performance. The search for an input–output model of this variable and the prediction of sudden increases (bulking episodes) is thus a central concern to ensure the fulfillment of current discharge limitations. Unfortunately, the strong interrelation between variables, their heterogeneity and the very high amount of missing information makes the use of traditional techniques difficult, or even impossible. Through the combined use of several methods — rough set theory and artificial neural networks, mainly — reasonable prediction models are found, which also serve to show the different importance of variables and provide insight into the process dynamics

Prediction of postprandial blood glucose under intra-patient variability and uncertainty and its use in the design of insulin dosing strategies for type 1 diabetic patients

In this thesis I propose a novel method to estimate the dose and injection-to-meal time for low-risk intensive insulin therapy. This dosage-aid system uses an optimization algorithm to determine the insulin dose and injection-to-meal time that minimizes the risk of postprandial hyper- and hypoglycaemia in type 1 diabetic patients. To this end, the algorithm applies a methodology that quantifies the risk of experiencing different grades of hypo- or hyperglycaemia in the postprandial state induced by insulin therapy according to an individual patient’s parameters. This methodology is based on modal interval analysis (MIA). Applying MIA, the postprandial glucose level is predicted with consideration of intra-patient variability and other sources of uncertainty. A worst-case approach is then used to calculate the risk index. In this way, a safer prediction of possible hyper- and hypoglycaemic episodes induced by the insulin therapy tested can be calculated in terms of these uncertainties.

Diversitat genètica de la truita comuna (Salmo trutta L.) a la Península Ibèrica: biogeografia i gestió

L'estudi de la diversitat i la diferenciació genètiques de les poblacions de truita comuna (Salmo trutta L.) a la Península Ibèrica ha confirmat l'elevada diferenciació observada en treballs previs i la divergència, ja descrita, entre les poblacions de la vessant atlàntica i la mediterrània. El resultats obtinguts, però, ens permeten observar patrons d'estructura poblacional tant en les poblacions atlàntiques com les mediterrànies. A l'Atlàntic s'observa un marcat patró hidrogràfic en la distribució de la diferenciació genètica, que contrasta fortament amb la distribució d'aquesta diferenciació en les poblacions mediterrànies, caracteritzades pels contactes secundaris entre llinatges durant les expansions pleniglacials i una forta divergència local conseqüència de la seva marginalitat i aïllament en els períodes interglacials. El manteniment d'aquesta diferenciació i individualitat descrites en les poblacions de truita de la Península, es veu seriosament compromès per les contínues repoblacions dels rius amb exemplars exògens d'origen nord europeu. La substitució dels genomes autòctons per la introducció de gens al.lòctons provoca una erosió dels patrimonis genètics natius i una homogeneïtzació de les poblacions, destruint els patrons de diferenciació existents. Al mateix temps, els nostres resultats indiquen que les conseqüències de les repoblacions no són sempre les mateixes. Concretament, es constata un fracàs de les repoblacions en rius intensament repoblats i sotmesos a pesca intensiva, que contrasta amb una enorme erosió de les poblacions quan les repoblacions s'efectuen sobre àrees protegides i sense cap mena de pressió pesquera. Això suggereix que múltiples factors com la gestió dels rius posterior a les repoblacions, l'estat de les poblacions o les condicions de l'hàbitat són determinants de la introducció efectiva dels exemplars alliberats; fet que dificulta la predicció sobre actuacions particulars. Malgrat aquesta introgressió de gens exògens que es detecta en moltes de les poblacions analitzades, els gens natius predominen en gairebé tots els rius de la Península. La conservació d'aquesta elevada riquesa genètica que encara resta en les poblacions de truita de la Península Ibèrica ha de ser l'objectiu final de qualsevol programa de gestió. Per això, defensem una gestió basada en el propi riu mitjançant una pesca sostinguda per la reproducció natural de les poblacions salvatges, acompanyada d'una millora i recuperació d'hàbitats adequats per la truita, i evitant, per sobre de tot, la introducció en els rius d'exemplars exògens, degut als efectes nocius i incontrolables que comporta aquest procés.

La intervenció de Joan Coromines en alguns dels grans episodis de la història de la llengua catalana del S. XX (amb un apèndix d'observacions sobre la llengua catalana de Joan Coromines)

La tesi doctoral LA INTERVENCIÓ DE JOAN COROMINES EN ALGUNS DELS GRANS EPISODIS DE LA HISTÒRIA DE LA LLENGUA CATALANA DEL S. XX (AMB UN APÈNDIX D'OBSERVACIONS SOBRE LA LLENGUA CATALANA DE JOAN COROMINES) estudia l'aportació de Joan Coromines en la història de la llengua catalana del segle XX. El treball del lingüista és situat en el context de l'obra codificadora i modernitzadora de la llengua catalana realitzada per Pompeu Fabra durant les tres primeres dècades del segle passat i descriu la intervenció i les aportacions de Coromines en la continuació del treball normativitzador del català. La tesi demostra que Coromines és una figura indispensable per comprendre la dinàmica, la fesomia i la tessitura de la llengua catalana al llarg del crucial segle XX.

Análisis de los períodos de regresión y transición en el primer año de vida

Aquesta tesi està centrada en l'estudi dels períodes de regressió i transició. A partir dels treballs de van de Rijt-Plooij & Plooij (1992) sobre els períodes de regressió, l'autor analitza les característiques comportamentals d'aquests períodes i la relació que tenen amb els períodes de transició. Els períodes de regressió s'entenen com uns moments del desenvolupament durant els quals els nens perden la homeostasi del seu organisme i manifesten una sèrie de conductes pertorbadores per a la mare. El matrimoni Plooij manté que els períodes de regressió són la manifestació de les reorganitzacions cerebrals que tenen lloc durant el període postnatal, i constitueixen la base de les noves habilitats que el nen va adquirint. Així, doncs, l'augment de l'atenció que la mare dispensa al nen durant els períodes de regressió esdevé una font estimular imprescindible en els processos d'educació i culturalització de l'infant. Per tant, els períodes de regressió estan íntimament relacionats amb els períodes durant els quals apareixen nous comportaments qualitativament diferents dels anteriors, que es manifesten de forma ràpida i sobtada, permetent una certa sistematització del procés evolutiu, per la qual cosa s'han denominat transicions. Van de Rijt-Plooij & Plooij, i també nosaltres, considerem que els períodes de regressió són índexs dels períodes de transició. Per aquesta raó també s'han denominar reprogressions. Tanmateix, els períodes de regressió es poden convertir en una font de conflictes que, en situació de risc, poden degenerar en maltractament infantil i, fins i tot, esdevenir el germen de possibles patogènies. Com veiem, els conceptes de període de regressió i transició es troben a l'encreuament entre la fisiologia, la psicologia i la psicopatologia del desenvolupament i, el seu estudi establiria un pont interdisciplinar que contribuiria a la construcció d'un model biopsicosocial del desenvolupament. Els objectius del nostre estudi varen ser comprovar si els períodes descrits per van de Rijt-Plooij i Plooij (1992) també els podem observar en un grup de nens de la població catalana sense problemes socio-econòmics o sanitaris aparents. Per altra banda, vàrem voler comprovar si els períodes de regressió tenen relació amb els períodes de transició. El disseny d'investigació correspon a un model longitudinal i transversal. Es varen seguir -mitjançant entrevistes, qüestionaris i observacions- vint diades mare-nen durant catorze mesos, repartides en quatre cohorts de cinc diades cada una d'elles. Partint d'uns criteris establerts a priori per a la categorització dels períodes de regressió i transició, vàrem estudiar la temporalitat d'ambdós tipus de períodes. També s'ha aprofundit sobre les característiques comportamentals i dinàmiques dels períodes de regressió. Respecte les dades, els percentatges màxims dels períodes de regressió del nostre grup d'estudi han aparegut a les setmanes: 5, 8, 12-13, 18, 26-27, 35, 43 i 52. La mitjana setmanal de cada període ha sigut de dues setmanes. Les nostres dades confirmen les obtingudes en la investigació de van de Rijt-Plooij & Plooij. Tanmateix, també hem trobat diferències (els períodes de regressió de l'estudi holandès són més llargs i coincideixen més) que ens suggereixen que la cultura podrien estar actuant en la forma de presentació del períodes de regressió. Pel que fa a la relació entre els períodes de regressió i l'emergència de nous comportaments (períodes de transició), els resultats mostren que les freqüències màximes dels períodes de regressió sempre es troben poques setmanes abans de les freqüències màximes dels períodes de transició. Per tant, és possible que els períodes de regressió siguin indicadors dels períodes de transició.

Las novelas de "los nuevos años": literatura e historia en Alfredo Pareja Diezcanseco (Del Fabulador)

El autor comenta la trilogía «Los nuevos años», de Alfredo Pareja Diezcanseco. La advertencia presenta los sueños de modernización del país, con su esperanza de mayor equidad e inclusión, El aire y los recuerdos es leída como una creación de singulares matices poéticos: el aire se vuelve portador de ilusiones y sueños de soluciones para el país, pero también se los lleva, con las frustraciones, desamparos y fracasos, Los poderes omnímodos narra los inicios de la era velasquista, saca el mejor provecho a situaciones y personajes, probando una madurez narrativa excepcional. Pareja retrata las dos grandes ciudades del país en estas novelas, pero también recorre los campos, episodios históricos de importancia son el pretexto para mostrar, ambiciosamente, los diversos y amplios sectores de la estructura social ecuatoriana, eventos y personajes que, a su vez, se encuentran en diálogo con otros sucesos del mundo contemporáneo de la época. El autor sostiene que puede hablarse de una tendencia globalizadora de Pareja en estas novelas, de un claro afán por «desenclaustrar» a la nación.

Variability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation described by three-dimensional empirical orthogonal functions

We describe the use of bivariate 3d empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) in characterising low frequency variability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) in the Hadley Centre global climate model, HadCM3. We find that the leading two modes are well correlated with an index of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) on decadal timescales, with the leading mode alone accounting for 54% of the decadal variance. Episodes of coherent oscillations in the sub-space of the leading EOFs are identified; these episodes are of great interest for the predictability of the THC, and could indicate the existence of different regimes of natural variability. The mechanism identified for the multi-decadal variability is an internal ocean mode, dominated by changes in convection in the Nordic Seas, which lead the changes in the MOC by a few years. Variations in salinity transports from the Arctic and from the North Atlantic are the main feedbacks which control the oscillation. This mode has a weak feedback onto the atmosphere and hence a surface climatic influence. Interestingly, some of these climate impacts lead the changes in the overturning. There are also similarities to observed multi-decadal climate variability.

A new Rossby Wave-breaking interpretation of the North Atlantic Oscillation

This paper proposes the hypothesis that the low-frequency variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) arises as a result of variations in the occurrence of upper-level Rossby wave–breaking events over the North Atlantic. These events lead to synoptic situations similar to midlatitude blocking that are referred to as high-latitude blocking episodes. A positive NAO is envisaged as being a description of periods in which these episodes are infrequent and can be considered as a basic, unblocked situation. A negative NAO is a description of periods in which episodes occur frequently. A similar, but weaker, relationship exists between wave breaking over the Pacific and the west Pacific pattern. Evidence is given to support this hypothesis by using a two-dimensional potential-vorticity-based index to identify wave breaking at various latitudes. This is applied to Northern Hemisphere winter data from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40), and the events identified are then related to the NAO. Certain dynamical precursors are identified that appear to increase the likelihood of wave breaking. These suggest mechanisms by which variability in the tropical Pacific, and in the stratosphere, could affect the NAO.

Effect of ENSO phase on large-scale snow water equivalent distribution in a GCM

Understanding links between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and snow would be useful for seasonal forecasting, but also for understanding natural variability and interpreting climate change predictions. Here, a 545-year run of the general circulation model HadCM3, with prescribed external forcings and fixed greenhouse gas concentrations, is used to explore the impact of ENSO on snow water equivalent (SWE) anomalies. In North America, positive ENSO events reduce the mean SWE and skew the distribution towards lower values, and vice versa during negative ENSO events. This is associated with a dipole SWE anomaly structure, with anomalies of opposite sign centered in western Canada and the central United States. In Eurasia, warm episodes lead to a more positively skewed distribution and the mean SWE is raised. Again, the opposite effect is seen during cold episodes. In Eurasia the largest anomalies are concentrated in the Himalayas. These correlations with February SWE distribution are seen to exist from the previous June-July-August (JJA) ENSO index onwards, and are weakly detected in 50-year subsections of the control run, but only a shifted North American response can be detected in the anaylsis of 40 years of ERA40 reanalysis data. The ENSO signal in SWE from the long run could still contribute to regional predictions although it would be a weak indicator only

Can the frequency of blocking be described by a red noise process?

The frequency of persistent atmospheric blocking events in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is compared with the blocking frequency produced by a simple first-order Markov model designed to predict the time evolution of a blocking index [defined by the meridional contrast of potential temperature on the 2-PVU surface (1 PVU ≡ 1 × 10−6 K m2 kg−1 s−1)]. With the observed spatial coherence built into the model, it is able to reproduce the main regions of blocking occurrence and the frequencies of sector blocking very well. This underlines the importance of the climatological background flow in determining the locations of high blocking occurrence as being the regions where the mean midlatitude meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradient is weak. However, when only persistent blocking episodes are considered, the model is unable to simulate the observed frequencies. It is proposed that this persistence beyond that given by a red noise model is due to the self-sustaining nature of the blocking phenomenon.

An eclectic morphostratigraphic model for the sedimentary response to Holocene sea-level rise in northwest Europe

The improved empirical understanding of silt facies in Holocene coastal sequences provided by such as diatom, foraminifera, ostracode and testate amoebae analysis, combined with insights from quantitative stratigraphic and hydraulic simulations, has led to an inclusive, integrated model for the palaeogeomorphology, stratigraphy, lithofacies and biofacies of northwest European Holocene coastal lowlands in relation to sea-level behaviour. The model covers two general circumstances and is empirically supported by a range of field studies in the Holocene deposits of a number of British estuaries, particularly, the Severn. Where deposition was continuous over periods of centuries to millennia, and sea level fluctuated about a rising trend, the succession consists of repeated cycles of silt and peat lithofacies and biofacies in which series of transgressive overlaps (submergence sequences) alternate with series of regressive overlaps (emergence sequences) in association with the waxing and waning of tidal creek networks. Environmental and sea-level change are closely coupled, and equilibrium and secular pattern is of the kind represented ideally by a closed limit cycle. In the second circumstance, characteristic of unstable wetland shores and generally affecting smaller areas, coastal erosion ensures that episodes of deposition in the high intertidal zone last no more than a few centuries. The typical response is a series of regressive overlaps (emergence sequence) in erosively based high mudflat and salt-marsh silts that record, commonly as annual banding, exceptionally high deposition rates and a state of strong disequilibrium. Environmental change, including creek development, and sea-level movement are uncoupled. Only if deposition proceeds for a sufficiently long period, so that marshes mature, are equilibrium and close coupling regained. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The timing of Quaternary calcrete development in semi-arid southeast Spain: Investigating the role of climate on calcrete genesis

Quaternary-aged calcrete horizons are common weathering products in arid and semi-arid regions. It is, however, unclear how calcrete forming processes respond to the major oscillations in climate that occur over the Quaternary period. This paper presents a U-series-based calcrete age database from the Sorbas basin, southeast Spain. The study constructs an age frequency distribution of these ages which is consequently compared to a range of palaeoenvironmental records from the Mediterranean. The age distribution presented here suggests that the formation of pedogenic calcrete horizons in the Sorbas basin primarily occurs during 'warm' isotope stages (MIS 1 and 5), with very few calcrete ages occurring during cold glacial/stadial stages (MIS 2, 3 and 4). It is suggested that this is a function of the environments that existed during 'warm' isotope stages being more conducive to calcrete development than those that existed during cold climate episodes. In a semi-arid region such as the Sorbas basin it is likely that increased aridity during glacial stages, coupled with reduced vegetation and accelerated landscape instability, was crucial in reducing rates of calcrete formation. In a semi-arid region such as southeast Spain, calcrete formation during the Quaternary, therefore, oscillates with climate change but is primarily a "warm" episode phenomenon. It is suggested that further studies are required to see how calcrete genesis responds to environmental change in more humid parts of the Mediterranean. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hiatal surfaces from the Miocene Globigerina Limestone Formation of Malta: Biostratigraphy, sedimentology, trace fossils and early diagenesis

The Miocene Globigerina Limestone of the Maltese islands contains widespread omission surfaces with very different characteristics and origins. The terminal Lower Globigerina Limestone hardground (TLGLHg) formed during a period of falling sea level. Coccolith assemblages suggest shallowness. Sedimentary structures and trace fossil assemblages, indicate increasing frequency of storm events and erosional episodes, towards the surface. Calcite cementation which took place around Thalassinoides burrows and formed irregular nodules was followed by dissolution of aragonite. It is suggested that lithification was linked to microbial reactions involving organic matter. In contrast two later surfaces, the terminal Middle Globigerina Limestone omissionground (TMGLOg), which marks the Lower to Middle Miocene boundary, and the Fomm-ir-Rih local hardground (FiRLHg) both contain early diagenetic dolomite. Lithification took place in two phases. The dolomite is interpreted to have formed beneath the sea floor: it was subsequently exhumed and partially corroded as the precipitation of calcitic and phosphatic cements took place around burrows open to the circulation of sea water. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Late pleistocene ice export events into the Arctic Ocean from the M'Clure Strait Ice Stream, Canadian Arctic Archipelago

Rapidly-flowing sectors of an ice sheet (ice streams) can play ail important role in abrupt climate change through tile delivery of icebergs and meltwater and tile Subsequent disruption of ocean thermohaline circulation (e.g., the North Atlantic's Heinrich events). Recently, several cores have been raised from the Arctic Ocean which document the existence of massive ice export events during tile Late Pleistocene and whose provenance has been linked to Source regions in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. In this paper, satellite imagery is used to map glacial geomorphology in the vicinity of Victoria Island, Banks Island and Prince of Wales Island (Canadian Arctic) in order to reconstruct ice flow patterns in the highly complex glacial landscape. A total of 88 discrete flow-sets are mapped and of these, 13 exhibit the characteristic geomorphology of palaeo-ice streams (i.e., parallel patterns of large, highly elongated mega-scale glacial lineations forming a convergent flow pattern with abrupt lateral margins). Previous studies by other workers and cross-cutting relationships indicate that the majority of these ice streams are relatively young and operated during or immediately prior to deglaciation. Our new mapping, however, documents a large (> 700 km long; 110 km wide) and relatively old ice stream imprint centred in M'Clintock Channel and converging into Viscount Melville Sound. A trough mouth fan located on the continental shelf Suggests that it extended along M'Clure Strait and was grounded at tile shelf edge. The location of the M'Clure Strait Ice Stream exactly matches the Source area of 4 (possibly 5) major ice export events recorded in core PS 1230 raised from Fram Strait, the major ice exit for the Arctic Ocean. These ice export events occur at similar to 12.9, similar to 15.6, similar to 22 and 29.8 ka (C-14 yr BP) and we argue that they record vigorous episodes of activity of the M'Clure Strait Ice Stream. The timing of these events is remarkably similar to the North Atlantic's Heinrich events and we take this as evidence that the M'Clure Strait Ice Stream was also activated around the same time. This may hold important implications for tile cause of the North Atlantic's Heinrich events and hints at tile possibility of a pall-ice sheet response. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrated modelling of climate change impacts on water resources and quality in a lowland catchment: River Kennet, UK

An integrated approach to climate change impact assessment is explored by linking established models of regional climate (SDSM), water resources (CATCHMOD) and water quality (INCA) within a single framework. A case study of the River Kennet illustrates how the system can be used to investigate aspects of climate change uncertainty, deployable water resources, and water quality dynamics in upper and lower reaches of the drainage network. The results confirm the large uncertainty in climate change scenarios and freshwater impacts due to the choice of general circulation model (GCM). This uncertainty is shown to be greatest during summer months as evidenced by large variations between GCM-derived projections of future tow river flows, deployable yield from groundwater, severity of nutrient flushing episodes, and Long-term trends in surface water quality. Other impacts arising from agricultural land-use reform or delivery of EU Water Framework Directive objectives under climate change could be evaluated using the same framework. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.