Utilização de mercados artificiais com formadores de mercado para análise de estratégias

Na modelagem de sistemas complexos, abordagens analíticas tradicionais com equações diferenciais muitas vezes resultam em soluções intratáveis. Para contornar este problema, Modelos Baseados em Agentes surgem como uma ferramenta complementar, onde o sistema é modelado a partir de suas entidades constituintes e interações. Mercados Financeiros são exemplos de sistemas complexos, e como tais, o uso de modelos baseados em agentes é aplicável. Este trabalho implementa um Mercado Financeiro Artificial composto por formadores de mercado, difusores de informações e um conjunto de agentes heterogêneos que negociam um ativo através de um mecanismo de Leilão Duplo Contínuo. Diversos aspectos da simulação são investigados para consolidar sua compreensão e assim contribuir com a concepção de modelos, onde podemos destacar entre outros: Diferenças do Leilão Duplo Contínuo contra o Discreto; Implicações da variação do spread praticado pelo Formador de Mercado; Efeito de Restrições Orçamentárias sobre os agentes e Análise da formação de preços na emissão de ofertas. Pensando na aderência do modelo com a realidade do mercado brasileiro, uma técnica auxiliar chamada Simulação Inversa, é utilizada para calibrar os parâmetros de entrada, de forma que trajetórias de preços simulados resultantes sejam próximas à séries de preços históricos observadas no mercado.

Computer simulation of the stochastic transport equation

Trabalho apresentado no 37th Conference on Stochastic Processes and their Applications - July 28 - August 01, 2014 -Universidad de Buenos Aires

Numerical integration of coupled stochastic oscillators driven by Random Forces

Trabalho apresentado no International Conference on Scientific Computation And Differential Equations 2015

Uma reavaliação do pensamento lógico de George Boole à luz da história da matemática

The aim of the present study is to reevaluate the logical thought of the English mathematician George Boole (1815 - 1864). Thus, our research centers on the mathematical analysis of logic in the context of the history of mathematics. In order to do so, we present various biographical considerations about Boole in the light of events that happened in the 19th century and their consequences for mathematical production. We briefly describe Boole's innovations in the areas of differential equations and invariant theory and undertake an analysis of Boole's logic, especially as formulated in the book The Mathematical Analysis of Logic, comparing it not only with the traditional Aristotelian logic, but also with modern symbolic logic. We conclude that Boole, as he intended, expanded logic both in terms of its content and also in terms of its methods and formal elaboration. We further conclude that his purpose was the mathematical modeling of deductive reasoning, which led him to present an innovative formalism for logic and, because the different ways it can be interpreted, a new conception of mathematics

Aplicação de sistemas multi-classificadores no diagnóstico de falhas em motores de indução trifásicos

Equipment maintenance is the major cost factor in industrial plants, it is very important the development of fault predict techniques. Three-phase induction motors are key electrical equipments used in industrial applications mainly because presents low cost and large robustness, however, it isn t protected from other fault types such as shorted winding and broken bars. Several acquisition ways, processing and signal analysis are applied to improve its diagnosis. More efficient techniques use current sensors and its signature analysis. In this dissertation, starting of these sensors, it is to make signal analysis through Park s vector that provides a good visualization capability. Faults data acquisition is an arduous task; in this way, it is developed a methodology for data base construction. Park s transformer is applied into stationary reference for machine modeling of the machine s differential equations solution. Faults detection needs a detailed analysis of variables and its influences that becomes the diagnosis more complex. The tasks of pattern recognition allow that systems are automatically generated, based in patterns and data concepts, in the majority cases undetectable for specialists, helping decision tasks. Classifiers algorithms with diverse learning paradigms: k-Neighborhood, Neural Networks, Decision Trees and Naïves Bayes are used to patterns recognition of machines faults. Multi-classifier systems are used to improve classification errors. It inspected the algorithms homogeneous: Bagging and Boosting and heterogeneous: Vote, Stacking and Stacking C. Results present the effectiveness of constructed model to faults modeling, such as the possibility of using multi-classifiers algorithm on faults classification

Controle inteligente de sistemas eletroidráulicos utilizando redes neurais artificiais

This work describes the development of a nonlinear control strategy for an electro-hydraulic actuated system. The system to be controlled is represented by a third order ordinary differential equation subject to a dead-zone input. The control strategy is based on a nonlinear control scheme, combined with an artificial intelligence algorithm, namely, the method of feedback linearization and an artificial neural network. It is shown that, when such a hard nonlinearity and modeling inaccuracies are considered, the nonlinear technique alone is not enough to ensure a good performance of the controller. Therefore, a compensation strategy based on artificial neural networks, which have been notoriously used in systems that require the simulation of the process of human inference, is used. The multilayer perceptron network and the radial basis functions network as well are adopted and mathematically implemented within the control law. On this basis, the compensation ability considering both networks is compared. Furthermore, the application of new intelligent control strategies for nonlinear and uncertain mechanical systems are proposed, showing that the combination of a nonlinear control methodology and artificial neural networks improves the overall control system performance. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed control system

Avaliacao de dados de secagem de suspensoes de polpas de frutas em leito de jorro com alimentacao intermitente

The objective of this work was the development and improvement of the mathematical models based on mass and heat balances, representing the drying transient process fruit pulp in spouted bed dryer with intermittent feeding. Mass and energy balance for drying, represented by a system of differential equations, were developed in Fortran language and adapted to the condition of intermittent feeding and mass accumulation. Were used the DASSL routine (Differential Algebraic System Solver) for solving the differential equation system and used a heuristic optimization algorithm in parameter estimation, the Particle Swarm algorithm. From the experimental data food drying, the differential models were used to determine the quantity of water and the drying air temperature at the exit of a spouted bed and accumulated mass of powder in the dryer. The models were validated using the experimental data of drying whose operating conditions, air temperature, flow rate and time intermittency, varied within the limits studied. In reviewing the results predicted, it was found that these models represent the experimental data of the kinetics of production and accumulation of powder and humidity and air temperature at the outlet of the dryer

Resonances and subharmonic bifurcations of large amplitude periodic orbits of planar polynomial vector fields

In this work are studied periodic perturbations, depending on two parameters, of planar polynomial vector fields having an annulus of large amplitude periodic orbits, which accumulate on a symmetric infinite heteroclinic cycle. Such periodic orbits and the heteroclinic trajectory can be seen only by the global consideration of the polynomial vector fields on the whole plane, and not by their restriction to any compact set. The global study involving infinity is performed via the Poincare Compactification. It is shown that, for certain types of periodic perturbations, one can seek, in a neighborhood of the origin in the parameter plane, curves C-(m) of subharmonic bifurcations, for which the periodically perturbed system has subharmonics of order m, for any integer m.

DEGENERATE HOPF BIFURCATIONS IN CHUA'S SYSTEM

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Analytical attitude prediction of spin stabilized spacecrafts perturbed by magnetic residual torque

An analytical approach for spin-stabilized spacecraft attitude prediction is presented for the influence of the residual magnetic torques. Assuming an inclined dipole model for the Earth's magnetic field, an analytical averaging method is applied to obtain the mean residual torque every orbital period. The orbit mean anomaly is utilized to compute the average components of residual torque in the spacecraft body frame reference system. The theory is developed for time variations in the orbital elements, and non-circular orbits, giving rise to many curvature integrals. It is observed that the residual magnetic torque does not have component along the spin axis. The inclusion of this torque on the rotational motion differential equations of a spin stabilized spacecraft yields conditions to derive an analytical solution. The solution shows that residual torque does not affect the spin velocity magnitude, contributing only for the precession and the drift of the spin axis of the spacecraft. (c) 2005 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Design of fuzzy regulators with optimal initial conditions compensation

In almost all cases, the goal of the design of automatic control systems is to obtain the parameters of the controllers, which are described by differential equations. In general, the controller is artificially built and it is possible to update its initial conditions. In the design of optimal quadratic regulators, the initial conditions of the controller can be changed in an optimal way and they can improve the performance of the controlled system. Following this idea, a LNU-based design procedure to update the initial conditions of PI controllers, considering the nonlinear plant described by Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy models, is presented. The importance of the proposed method is that it also allows other specifications, such as, the decay rate and constraints on control input and output. The application in the control of an inverted pendulum illustrates the effectively of proposed method.

Corona Discharge Model for Transmission Lines by Lumped Elements

This paper shows the insertion of corona effect in a transmission line model based on lumped elements. The development is performed considering a frequency-dependent line representation by cascade of pi sections and state equations. Hence, the detailed profile of currents and voltages along the line, described from a non-homogeneous system of differential equations, can be obtained directly in time domain applying numerical or analytic solution integration methods. The corona discharge model is also based on lumped elements and is implemented from the well-know Skilling-Umoto Model.

Colombeau's theory and shock wave solutions for systems of PDEs

In this article we study the existence of shock wave solutions for systems of partial differential equations of hydrodynamics with viscosity in one space dimension in the context of Colombeau's theory of generalized functions. This study uses the equality in the strict sense and the association of generalized functions (that is the weak equality). The shock wave solutions are given in terms of generalized functions that have the classical Heaviside step function as macroscopic aspect. This means that solutions are sought in the form of sequences of regularizations to the Heaviside function that have to satisfy part of the equations in the strict sense and part of the equations in the sense of association.

Dynamic stationary response of reinforced plates by the boundary element method

A direct version of the boundary element method (BEM) is developed to model the stationary dynamic response of reinforced plate structures, such as reinforced panels in buildings, automobiles, and airplanes. The dynamic stationary fundamental solutions of thin plates and plane stress state are used to transform the governing partial differential equations into boundary integral equations (BIEs). Two sets of uncoupled BIEs are formulated, respectively, for the in-plane state ( membrane) and for the out-of-plane state ( bending). These uncoupled systems are joined to formamacro-element, in which membrane and bending effects are present. The association of these macro-elements is able to simulate thin-walled structures, including reinforced plate structures. In the present formulation, the BIE is discretized by continuous and/or discontinuous linear elements. Four displacement integral equations are written for every boundary node. Modal data, that is, natural frequencies and the corresponding mode shapes of reinforced plates, are obtained from information contained in the frequency response functions (FRFs). A specific example is presented to illustrate the versatility of the proposed methodology. Different configurations of the reinforcements are used to simulate simply supported and clamped boundary conditions for the plate structures. The procedure is validated by comparison with results determined by the finite element method (FEM).

Traveling waves in the Lethargic Crab Disease

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)