947 resultados para modeling and model calibration


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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

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INTRODUCTION: New scores have been developed and validated in the US for in-hospital mortality risk stratification in patients undergoing coronary angioplasty: the National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR) risk score and the Mayo Clinic Risk Score (MCRS). We sought to validate these scores in a European population with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and to compare their predictive accuracy with that of the GRACE risk score. METHODS: In a single-center ACS registry of patients undergoing coronary angioplasty, we used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), a graphical representation of observed vs. expected mortality, and net reclassification improvement (NRI)/integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) analysis to compare the scores. RESULTS: A total of 2148 consecutive patients were included, mean age 63 years (SD 13), 74% male and 71% with ST-segment elevation ACS. In-hospital mortality was 4.5%. The GRACE score showed the best AUC (0.94, 95% CI 0.91-0.96) compared with NCDR (0.87, 95% CI 0.83-0.91, p=0.0003) and MCRS (0.85, 95% CI 0.81-0.90, p=0.0003). In model calibration analysis, GRACE showed the best predictive power. With GRACE, patients were more often correctly classified than with MCRS (NRI 78.7, 95% CI 59.6-97.7; IDI 0.136, 95% CI 0.073-0.199) or NCDR (NRI 79.2, 95% CI 60.2-98.2; IDI 0.148, 95% CI 0.087-0.209). CONCLUSION: The NCDR and Mayo Clinic risk scores are useful for risk stratification of in-hospital mortality in a European population of patients with ACS undergoing coronary angioplasty. However, the GRACE score is still to be preferred.

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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Estatística e Gestão do Risco

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The reported productivity gains while using models and model transformations to develop entire systems, after almost a decade of experience applying model-driven approaches for system development, are already undeniable benefits of this approach. However, the slowness of higher-level, rule based model transformation languages hinders the applicability of this approach to industrial scales. Lower-level, and efficient, languages can be used but productivity and easy maintenance seize to exist. The abstraction penalty problem is not new, it also exists for high-level, object oriented languages but everyone is using them now. Why is not everyone using rule based model transformation languages then? In this thesis, we propose a framework, comprised of a language and its respective environment, designed to tackle the most performance critical operation of high-level model transformation languages: the pattern matching. This framework shows that it is possible to mitigate the performance penalty while still using high-level model transformation languages.

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Dissertation to obtain the degree of Master in Chemical and Biochemical Engineering

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To cope with modernity, the interesting of having a fully automated house has been increasing over the years, as technology evolves and as our lives become more stressful and overloaded. An automation system provides a way to simplify some daily tasks, allowing us to have more spare time to perform activities where we are really needed. There are some systems in this domain that try to implement these characteristics, but this kind of technology is at its early stages of evolution being that it is still far away of empowering the user with the desired control over a habitation. The reason is that the mentioned systems miss some important features such as adaptability, extension and evolution. These systems, developed from a bottom-up approach, are often tailored for programmers and domain experts, discarding most of the times the end users that remain with unfinished interfaces or products that they have difficulty to control. Moreover, complex behaviors are avoided, since they are extremely difficult to implement mostly due to the necessity of handling priorities, conflicts and device calibration. Besides, these solutions are only reachable at very high costs, yet they still have the limitation of being difficult to configure by non-technical people once in runtime operation. As a result, it is necessary to create a tool that allows the execution of several automated actions, with an interface that is easy to use but at the same time supports all the main features of this domain. It is also desirable that this tool is independent of the hardware so it can be reused, thus a Model Driven Development approach (MDD) is the ideal option, as it is a method that follows those principles. Since the automation domain has some very specific concepts, the use of models should be combined with a Domain Specific Language (DSL). With these two methods, it is possible to create a solution that is adapted to the end users, but also to domain experts and programmers due to the several levels of abstraction that can be added to diminish the complexity of use. The aim of this thesis is to design a Domain Specific Language (DSL) that uses the Model Driven Development approach (MDD), with the purpose of supporting Home Automation (HA) concepts. In this implementation, the development of simple and complex scenarios should be supported and will be one of the most important concerns. This DSL should also support other significant features in this domain, such as the ability to schedule tasks, which is something that is limited in the current existing solutions.

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Transport is an essential sector in modern societies. It connects economic sectors and industries. Next to its contribution to economic development and social interconnection, it also causes adverse impacts on the environment and results in health hazards. Transport is a major source of ground air pollution, especially in urban areas, and therefore contributing to the health problems, such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, cancer, and physical injuries. This thesis presents the results of a health risk assessment that quantifies the mortality and the diseases associated with particulate matter pollution resulting from urban road transport in Hai Phong City, Vietnam. The focus is on the integration of modelling and GIS approaches in the exposure analysis to increase the accuracy of the assessment and to produce timely and consistent assessment results. The modelling was done to estimate traffic conditions and concentrations of particulate matters based on geo-references data. A simplified health risk assessment was also done for Ha Noi based on monitoring data that allows a comparison of the results between the two cases. The results of the case studies show that health risk assessment based on modelling data can provide a much more detail results and allows assessing health impacts of different mobility development options at micro level. The use of modeling and GIS as a common platform for the integration of different assessments (environmental, health, socio-economic, etc.) provides various strengths, especially in capitalising on the available data stored in different units and forms and allows handling large amount of data. The use of models and GIS in a health risk assessment, from a decision making point of view, can reduce the processing/waiting time while providing a view at different scales: from micro scale (sections of a city) to a macro scale. It also helps visualising the links between air quality and health outcomes which is useful discussing different development options. However, a number of improvements can be made to further advance the integration. An improved integration programme of the data will facilitate the application of integrated models in policy-making. Data on mobility survey, environmental monitoring and measuring must be standardised and legalised. Various traffic models, together with emission and dispersion models, should be tested and more attention should be given to their uncertainty and sensitivity

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O objetivo deste artigo é verificar a influência da geometria urbana na intensidade de ilhas de calor noturnas com uso de uma ferramenta computacional desenvolvida como extensão de um SIG. O método deste trabalho está dividido em três principais etapas: desenvolvimento da ferramenta, calibração do modelo e simulação de cenários hipotéticos com diferentes geometrias urbanas. Um modelo simplificado que relaciona as intensidades máximas de ilha de calor urbana (ICUmáx) com a geometria urbana foi incorporado à subrotina de cálculo e, posteriormente, adaptado para fornecer resultados mais aproximados à realidade de duas cidades brasileiras, as quais serviram de base para a calibração do modelo. A comparação entre dados reais e simulados mostraram uma diferença no aumento da ICUmáx em função da relação H/W e da faixa de comprimento de rugosidade (Z0). Com a ferramenta já calibrada, foi realizada uma simulação de diferentes cenários urbanos, demonstrando que o modelo simplificado original subestima valores de ICUmáx para as configurações de cânions urbanos de Z0 < 2,0 e superestima valores de ICUmáx para as configurações de cânions urbanos de Z0 ≥ 2,0. Além disso, este estudo traz como contribuição à verificação de que cânions urbanos com maiores áreas de fachadas e com alturas de edificações mais heterogêneas resultam em ICUmáx menores em relação aos cânions mais homogêneos e com maiores áreas médias ocupadas pelas edificações, para um mesmo valor de relação H/W. Essa diferença pode ser explicada pelos diferentes efeitos na turbulência dos ventos e nas áreas sombreadas provocados pela geometria urbana.

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Considering that vernacular architecture may bear important lessons on hazard mitigation and that well-constructed examples showing traditional seismic resistant features can present far less vulnerability than expected, this study aims at understanding the resisting mechanisms and seismic behavior of vernacular buildings through detailed finite element modeling and nonlinear static (pushover) analysis. This paper focuses specifically on a type of vernacular rammed earth constructions found in the Portuguese region of Alentejo. Several rammed earth constructions found in the region were selected and studied in terms of dimensions, architectural layout, structural solutions, construction materials and detailing and, as a result, a reference model was built, which intends to be a simplified representative example of these constructions, gathering the most common characteristics. Different parameters that may affect the seismic response of this type of vernacular constructions have been identified and a numerical parametric study was defined aiming at evaluating and quantifying their influence in the seismic behavior of this type of vernacular buildings. This paper is part of an ongoing research which includes the development of a simplified methodology for assessing the seismic vulnerability of vernacular buildings, based on vulnerability index evaluation methods.

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Information security is concerned with the protection of information, which can be stored, processed or transmitted within critical information systems of the organizations, against loss of confidentiality, integrity or availability. Protection measures to prevent these problems result through the implementation of controls at several dimensions: technical, administrative or physical. A vital objective for military organizations is to ensure superiority in contexts of information warfare and competitive intelligence. Therefore, the problem of information security in military organizations has been a topic of intensive work at both national and transnational levels, and extensive conceptual and standardization work is being produced. A current effort is therefore to develop automated decision support systems to assist military decision makers, at different levels in the command chain, to provide suitable control measures that can effectively deal with potential attacks and, at the same time, prevent, detect and contain vulnerabilities targeted at their information systems. The concept and processes of the Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) methodology outstandingly resembles classical military processes and doctrine, in particular the analysis of “lessons learned” and definition of “modes of action”. Therefore, the present paper addresses the modeling and design of a CBR system with two key objectives: to support an effective response in context of information security for military organizations; to allow for scenario planning and analysis for training and auditing processes.

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Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Psicologia

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Tese de Doutoramento em Engenharia Industrial e de Sistemas (PDEIS)

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Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil