A dynamic approach to forecast rental growth

Numerous econometric models have been proposed for forecasting property market performance, but limited success has been achieved in finding a reliable and consistent model to predict property market movements over a five to ten year timeframe. This research focuses on office rental growth forecasts and overviews many of the office rent models that have evolved over the past 20 years. A model by DiPasquale and Wheaton is selected for testing in the Brisbane, Australia office market. The adaptation of this study did not provide explanatory variables that could assist in developing a reliable, predictive model of office rental growth. In light of this result, the paper suggests a system dynamics framework that includes an econometric model based on historical data as well as user input guidance for the primary variables. The rent forecast outputs would be assessed having regard to market expectations and probability profiling undertaken for use in simulation exercises. The paper concludes with ideas for ongoing research.

Simulation of inplane and out of plane AE source in thin plate

In most materials, short stress waves are generated during the process of plastic deformation, phase transformation, crack formation and crack growth. These phenomena are applied in acoustic emission (AE) for the detection of material defects in a wide spectrum of areas, ranging from nondestructive testing for the detection of materials defects to monitoring of microseismical activity. AE technique is also used for defect source identification and for failure detection. AE waves consist of P waves (primary longitudinal waves), S waves (shear/transverse waves) and Rayleigh (surface) waves as well as reflected and diffracted waves. The propagation of AE waves in various modes has made the determination of source location difficult. In order to use acoustic emission technique for accurate identification of source, an understanding of wave propagation of the AE signals at various locations in a plate structure is essential. Furthermore, an understanding of wave propagation can also assist in sensor location for optimum detection of AE signals along with the characteristics of the source. In real life, as the AE signals radiate from the source it will result in stress waves. Unless the type of stress wave is known, it is very difficult to locate the source when using the classical propagation velocity equations. This paper describes the simulation of AE waves to identify the source location and its characteristics in steel plate as well as the wave modes. The finite element analysis (FEA) is used for the numerical simulation of wave propagation in thin plate. By knowing the type of wave generated, it is possible to apply the appropriate wave equations to determine the location of the source. For a single plate structure, the results show that the simulation algorithm is effective to simulate different stress waves.

Near infrared optical materials from polymeric amorphous carbon synthesized by collisional plasma process

The synthesis of polymerlike amorphous carbon(a-C:H) thin-films by microwave excited collisional hydrocarbon plasma process is reported. Stable and highly aromatic a-C:H were obtained containing significant inclusions of poly(p-phenylene vinylene) (PPV). PPV confers universal optoelectronic properties to the synthesized material. That is a-C:H with tailor-made refractive index are capable of becoming absorption-free in visible (red)-near infrared wavelength range. Production of large aromatic hydrocarbon including phenyl clusters and/or particles is attributed to enhanced coagulation of elemental plasma species under collisional plasma conditions. Detailed structural and morphological changes that occur in a-C:H during the plasma synthesis are also described.

Glycosaminoglycan and growth factor mediated murine calvarial cell proliferation

Understanding the complex mechanisms underlying bone remodeling is crucial to the development of novel therapeutics. Glycosaminoglycans (GAGs) localised to the extracellular matrix (ECM) of bone are thought to play a key role in mediating aspects of bone development. The influence of isolated GAGs was studied by utilising in vitro murine calvarial monolayer and organ culture model systems. Addition of GAG preparations extracted from the cell surface of human osteoblasts at high concentrations (5 microg/ml) resulted in decreased proliferation of cells and decreased suture width and number of bone lining cells in calvarial sections. When we investigated potential interactions between the growth factors fibroblast growth factor-2 (FGF2), bone morphogenic protein-2 (BMP2) and transforming growth factor-beta1 (TGFbeta1) and the isolated cell surface GAGs, differences between the two model systems emerged. The cell culture system demonstrated a potentiating role for the isolated GAGs in the inhibition of FGF2 and TGFbeta1 actions. In contrast, the organ culture system demonstrated an enhanced stimulation of TFGbeta1 effects. These results emphasise the role of the ECM in mediating the interactions between GAGs and growth factors during bone development and suggest the GAG preparations contain potent inhibitory or stimulatory components able to mediate growth factor activity.

Endogenous mortality, human capital and economic growth

We consider growth and welfare effects of lifetime-uncertainty in an economy with human capital-led endogenous growth. We argue that lifetime uncertainty reduces private incentives to invest in both physical and human capital. Using an overlapping generations framework with finite-lived households we analyze the relevance of government expenditure on health and education to counter such growth-reducing forces. We focus on three different models that differ with respect to the mode of financing of education: (i) both private and public spending, (ii) only public spending, and (iii) only private spending. Results show that models (i) and (iii) outperform model (ii) with respect to long-term growth rates of per capita income, welfare levels and other important macroeconomic indicators. Theoretical predictions of model rankings for these macroeconomic indicators are also supported by observed stylized facts.