Climate change impact assessment: Uncertainty modeling with imprecise probability

Hydrologic impacts of climate change are usually assessed by downscaling the General Circulation Model (GCM) output of large-scale climate variables to local-scale hydrologic variables. Such an assessment is characterized by uncertainty resulting from the ensembles of projections generated with multiple GCMs, which is known as intermodel or GCM uncertainty. Ensemble averaging with the assignment of weights to GCMs based on model evaluation is one of the methods to address such uncertainty and is used in the present study for regional-scale impact assessment. GCM outputs of large-scale climate variables are downscaled to subdivisional-scale monsoon rainfall. Weights are assigned to the GCMs on the basis of model performance and model convergence, which are evaluated with the Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs) generated from the downscaled GCM output (for both 20th Century [20C3M] and future scenarios) and observed data. Ensemble averaging approach, with the assignment of weights to GCMs, is characterized by the uncertainty caused by partial ignorance, which stems from nonavailability of the outputs of some of the GCMs for a few scenarios (in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] data distribution center for Assessment Report 4 [AR4]). This uncertainty is modeled with imprecise probability, i.e., the probability being represented as an interval gray number. Furthermore, the CDF generated with one GCM is entirely different from that with another and therefore the use of multiple GCMs results in a band of CDFs. Representing this band of CDFs with a single valued weighted mean CDF may be misleading. Such a band of CDFs can only be represented with an envelope that contains all the CDFs generated with a number of GCMs. Imprecise CDF represents such an envelope, which not only contains the CDFs generated with all the available GCMs but also to an extent accounts for the uncertainty resulting from the missing GCM output. This concept of imprecise probability is also validated in the present study. The imprecise CDFs of monsoon rainfall are derived for three 30-year time slices, 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, with A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. The model is demonstrated with the prediction of monsoon rainfall in Orissa meteorological subdivision, which shows a possible decreasing trend in the future.

Numerical study on the surface depression of the concrete runway pavement under impact load

Airport runway pavement always subjected to huge impact loading due to the hard landing of aircraft on the pavement surface. Therefore runway pavements should have sufficient impact resistance capability to avoid damage causing by hard impact like surface deflection in downward or penetration since the repair works is cumbersome within the operating condition of airport and also increases the service life cost of the pavement structure. Several research works have been carried out on airport runway pavement to measure the present condition of pavement and also to predict future performance of it. However, most of the works are confined by pavement response under moving aircraft loading. Nevertheless, no comprehensive research work is yet conducted to identify the controlling factors which might have significant effect in changing the common pavements damage like surface penetration depth under impact of aircraft. Therefore, a 3D FE study is conducted to determine some effective factors in controlling the top surface penetration depth of runway pavement. Among the exterior factors, mass of the impactor, velocity of the impactor, impact angle and boundary conditions are selected and as interior factors, thickness of the runway pavement, compressive strength and density of materials used in the runway pavement are selected.

Measuring the impact of burn scarring on health-related quality of life: Development and preliminary content validation of the Brisbane Burn Scar Impact Profile (BBSIP) for children and adults

INTRODUCTION No burn-scar specific, health-related quality of life (HRQOL) measure exists. This study aimed to develop a patient-reported, evaluative HRQOL measure to assess the impact of burn scarring in children and adults. METHOD Semi-structured interviews, content validation surveys, and cognitive interviews were used to develop and test content validity of a new measure - the Brisbane Burn Scar Impact Profile (BBSIP). RESULTS Participants comprised Australian adults (n=23) and children (n=19) with burn scarring; caregivers of children with burn scarring (n=28); and international scar management experts (n=14). Items distinct from other burn scar measures emerged. Four versions of the BBSIP were developed; one for children aged 8-18 years, one for adults, one for caregivers (as proxies for children aged less than 8-years), and one for caregivers of children aged 8-18 years. Preliminary content validity of the BBSIP was supported. Final items covered physical and sensory symptoms; emotional reactions; impact on social functioning and daily activities; impact of treatment; and environmental factors. CONCLUSION The BBSIP was developed to assess burn-scar specific HRQOL and will be available at http://www.coolburns.com.au under a creative commons license. Further testing is underway.

Carbon sequestration: Evaluating the impact on rural land and valuation approach

This thesis uses semi-structured interviews and documentary analysis to explore the impact of carbon sequestration rights on rural land in Queensland and to determine whether current rural valuation knowledge and practice is equipped to deal with these rights. The carbon right in Queensland is complex and subject to significant individual variation. The nature and form of this right will determine whether it has a positive or negative impact on Queensland rural land. Significant gaps in the knowledge of industry stakeholders, including rural valuers, concerning carbon rights were found, and recommendations for valuation practice were made.

Rhizoctonia -Scots pine interactions: detection, impact on seedling performance and host defence gene response

Rhizoctonia spp. are ubiquitous soil inhabiting fungi that enter into pathogenic or symbiotic associations with plants. In general Rhizoctonia spp. are regarded as plant pathogenic fungi and many cause root rot and other plant diseases which results in considerable economic losses both in agriculture and forestry. Many Rhizoctonia strains enter into symbiotic mycorrhizal associations with orchids and some hypovirulent strains are promising biocontrol candidates in preventing host plant infection by pathogenic Rhizoctonia strains. This work focuses on uni- and binucleate Rhizoctonia (respectively UNR and BNR) strains belonging to the teleomorphic genus Ceratobasidium, but multinucleate Rhizoctonia (MNR) belonging to teleomorphic genus Thanatephorus and ectomycorrhizal fungal species, such as Suillus bovinus, were also included in DNA probe development work. Strain specific probes were developed to target rDNA ITS (internal transcribed spacer) sequences (ITS1, 5.8S and ITS2) and applied in Southern dot blot and liquid hybridization assays. Liquid hybridization was more sensitive and the size of the hybridized PCR products could be detected simultaneously, but the advantage in Southern hybridization was that sample DNA could be used without additional PCR amplification. The impacts of four Finnish BNR Ceratorhiza sp. strains 251, 266, 268 and 269 were investigated on Scot pine (Pinus sylvestris) seedling growth, and the infection biology and infection levels were microscopically examined following tryphan blue staining of infected roots. All BNR strains enhanced early seedling growth and affected the root architecture, while the infection levels remained low. The fungal infection was restricted to the outer cortical regions of long roots and typical monilioid cells detected with strain 268. The interactions of pathogenic UNR Ceratobasidium bicorne strain 1983-111/1N, and endophytic BNR Ceratorhiza sp. strain 268 were studied in single or dual inoculated Scots pine roots. The fungal infection levels and host defence-gene activity of nine transcripts [phenylalanine ammonia lyase (pal1), silbene synthase (STS), chalcone synthase (CHS), short-root specific peroxidase (Psyp1), antimicrobial peptide gene (Sp-AMP), rapidly elicited defence-related gene (PsACRE), germin-like protein (PsGER1), CuZn- superoxide dismutase (SOD), and dehydrin-like protein (dhy-like)] were measured from differentially treated and un-treated control roots by quantitative real time PCR (qRT-PCR). The infection level of pathogenic UNR was restricted in BNR- pre-inoculated Scots pine roots, while UNR was more competitive in simultaneous dual infection. The STS transcript was highly up-regulated in all treated roots, while CHS, pal1, and Psyp1 transcripts were more moderately activated. No significant activity of Sp-AMP, PsACRE, PsGER1, SOD, or dhy-like transcripts were detected compared to control roots. The integrated experiments presented, provide tools to assist in the future detection of these fungi in the environment and to understand the host infection biology and defence, and relationships between these interacting fungi in roots and soils. This study further confirms the complexity of the Rhizoctonia group both phylogenetically and in their infection biology and plant host specificity. The knowledge obtained could be applied in integrated forestry nursery management programmes.

Does family background impact driving attitudes and risky behaviours? - An investigation on Chinese young drivers

This thesis took a novel approach to examining factors associated with risky attitudes and risky road use in China by investigating the economic and political background status of a sample of young Chinese drivers. Using data from an online survey significant relationships are found between some family background factors and road safety variables. Correlation analysis, ANOVA, hierarchical regression analysis and structural equation modelling are applied in this study, with culture, personality and demographic variables as additional factors for a better understanding of the key findings. The findings are discussed in light of China's political management system and potential education opportunities for young drivers.

Effect of Molecular Weight on the Thermal and Impact Sensitivity of Polymers in Propellants

Abstract is not available.

A conditional random field-based downscaling method for assessment of climate change impact on multisite daily precipitation in the Mahanadi basin

Downscaling to station-scale hydrologic variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) is usually necessary to assess the hydrologic impact of climate change. This work presents CRF-downscaling, a new probabilistic downscaling method that represents the daily precipitation sequence as a conditional random field (CRF). The conditional distribution of the precipitation sequence at a site, given the daily atmospheric (large-scale) variable sequence, is modeled as a linear chain CRF. CRFs do not make assumptions on independence of observations, which gives them flexibility in using high-dimensional feature vectors. Maximum likelihood parameter estimation for the model is performed using limited memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (L-BFGS) optimization. Maximum a posteriori estimation is used to determine the most likely precipitation sequence for a given set of atmospheric input variables using the Viterbi algorithm. Direct classification of dry/wet days as well as precipitation amount is achieved within a single modeling framework. The model is used to project the future cumulative distribution function of precipitation. Uncertainty in precipitation prediction is addressed through a modified Viterbi algorithm that predicts the n most likely sequences. The model is applied for downscaling monsoon (June-September) daily precipitation at eight sites in the Mahanadi basin in Orissa, India, using the MIROC3.2 medium-resolution GCM. The predicted distributions at all sites show an increase in the number of wet days, and also an increase in wet day precipitation amounts. A comparison of current and future predicted probability density functions for daily precipitation shows a change in shape of the density function with decreasing probability of lower precipitation and increasing probability of higher precipitation.

Understanding the civic impact of journalism

The importance of journalism to civil society is constantly proclaimed, but empirical evidence on journalism's impact, and how this operates, is surprisingly thin. Indeed, there is confusion even about what is meant by the term “impact”. Meanwhile, the issue of the role of journalism is becoming increasingly urgent as a consequence of the rapid changes engulfing the news media, brought about by technological change and the flow-on effect to the traditional advertising-supported business model. Assessing the impact of journalism has recently been the topic of debate among practitioners and scholars particularly in the United States, where philanthropists have responded to the perceived crisis in investigative journalism by funding not-for-profit newsrooms, with resulting new pressures being placed on journalists and editors to quantify their impact on society. These recent attempts have so far failed to achieve clarity or a satisfactory conclusion, which is not surprising given the complex web of causation within which journalism operates. In this paper, the authors propose a stratified definition of journalistic impact and function. They propose a methodology for studying impact drawing on realistic evaluation—a theory-based approach developed primarily to assess large social programmes occurring in open systems. The authors argue this could allow a conceptual and methodological advance on the question of media impacts, leading to research capable of usefully informing responses at a time of worrying change.

Virtual Special Issue: “The impact of temperature on human health: new insights”

Ambient temperature is one of the basic parameters characterising human comfort: are we too hot, too cold, or just right? The impact of temperature goes beyond comfort: inadequate temperature and temperature variations have consequences on human health, as the increasing numbers of studies have demonstrated. The topic is of particular significance at the times when climate change shifts the traditional – as we know them- temperature zones, and brings much wider temperature variations. For these reasons the impact of temperature on health has been one of the most popular topics among the articles submitted and published in Science of the Total Environment over the last few years. This Virtual Special Issue compiles 18 articles published in our journal on this topic since 2012. It is worth briefly summarizing the rich scientific insights brought by these articles, as well as broader considerations, particularly those extending to management, discussed by the authors of the articles.

Impact of wildfires and floods on property values: A before and after analysis

One of the most evident casualties of a natural disaster is the property market. The private and social costs from such events run into millions of dollars. In this paper, we use a unique dataset to examine the impact on residential house prices affected by natural disasters using a hedonic property (HP) values approach. For this purpose, we use data before and after a wildfire and floods from Rockhampton in central Queensland, Australia. The data is unique because one suburb was affected by wildfires and another was affected by floods. For the analysis, three suburbs namely Frenchville, Park Avenue and Norman Gardens are used. Frenchville was significantly affected by wildfires in the latter part of 2009 and to a lesser extent in 2012, while Park Avenue was affected by floods at the end of 2010, January 2011–2013. Norman Gardens, which was relatively unaffected, is used as a control site. This enables us to examine the before and after effects on property values in the three suburbs. The results confirm that soon after a natural disaster property prices in affected areas decrease even though the large majority of individual houses remain unaffected. Furthermore, the results indicate that the largely unaffected suburb may gain immediately after a natural disaster but this gain may disappear if natural disasters continue to occur in the area/region due to the stigma created. The results have several important policy decision and welfare implications which are briefly discussed in the paper.

Denitrification losses from an intensively managed sub-tropical pasture: Impact of soil moisture on the partitioning of N2 and N2O emissions

Intensively managed pastures in subtropical Australia under dairy production are nitrogen (N) loaded agro-ecosystems, with an increased pool of N available for denitrification. The magnitude of denitrification losses and N2:N2O partitioning in these agro-ecosystems is largely unknown, representing a major uncertainty when estimating total N loss and replacement. This study investigated the influence of different soil moisture contents on N2 and N2O emissions from a subtropical dairy pasture in Queensland, Australia. Intact soil cores were incubated over 15 days at 80% and 100% water-filled pore space (WFPS), after the application of 15N labelled nitrate, equivalent to 50 kg N ha−1. This setup enabled the direct quantification of N2 and N2O emissions following fertilisation using the 15N gas flux method. The main product of denitrification in both treatments was N2. N2 emissions exceeded N2O emissions by a factor of 8 ± 1 at 80% WFPS and a factor of 17 ± 2 at 100% WFPS. The total amount of N-N2 lost over the incubation period was 21.27 kg ± 2.10 N2-N ha−1 at 80% WFPS and 25.26 kg ± 2.79 kg ha−1 at 100% WFPS respectively. N2 emissions remained high at 100% WFPS, while related N2O emissions decreased. At 80% WFPS, N2 emissions increased constantly over time while N2O fluxes declined. Consequently, N2/(N2 + N2O) product ratios increased over the incubation period in both treatments. N2/(N2 + N2O) product ratios responded significantly to soil moisture, confirming WFPS as a key driver of denitrification. The substantial amount of fertiliser lost as N2 reveals the agronomic significance of denitrification as a major pathway of N loss for sub-tropical pastures at high WFPS and may explain the low fertiliser N use efficiency observed for these agro-ecosystems.

The impact of Indigenous Community sports programs: The case of surfing

The objective of this research project was to consider the social impact of sport and physical activity on the lives of Indigenous Australians and their communities. There has been strong research interest in the links between sport and recreation programs and various health and social outcomes and a well-established body of literature exists on the use of sport to address social issues in mainstream society (A Thomson, Darcy and Pearce 2010). The consensus is that physical activity is an important contributor to health for all people (Nelson, Abbott and Macdonald 2010). While there is strong research interest, what remains unclear is the value and impact of sport and physical activity on Indigenous communities (Cairnduff 2001). Nelson (2009) drawing on the work of Jonas and Langton (1994) indicates that an ‘Aboriginal person is a descendant of an Indigenous inhabitant of Australia, identifi es as an Aboriginal, and is recognised as Aboriginal by members of the community in which he or she lives’ (p. 97). Even this defi nition has the potential to be politically charged. At a general level, the collective terms ‘Indigenous’ (capitalised) and ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander’ people (title capitalised) appear to be broadly acceptable terms. Indigenous groups cannot be considered to be homogenous as there is much diversity between and within groups (Nelson et al. 2010; Parker et al. 2006). It is therefore important this report is not viewed as taking an essentialist view of who Indigenous people are and how they develop. Rather, this paper attempts to describe and discuss the experiences of some individuals and their communities in site-specifi c surfi ng programs.

A numerical study of projectile impact on thin aluminium plates

This article deals with a simulation-based Study of the impact of projectiles on thin aluminium plates using LS-DYNA by modelling plates with shell elements and projectiles with solid elements. In order to establish the required modelling criterion in terms of element size for aluminium plates, a convergence Study of residual velocity has been carried Out by varying mesh density in the impact zone. Using the preferred material and meshing criteria arrived at here, extremely good prediction of test residual velocities and ballistic limits given by Gupta et al. (2001) for thin aluminium plates has been obtained. The simulation-based pattern of failure with localized bulging and jagged edge of perforation is similar to the perforation with petalling seen in tests. A number Of simulation-based parametric studies have been carried out and results consistent with published test data have been obtained. Despite the robust correlation achieved against published experimental results, it would be prudent to conduct one's own experiments, for a final correlation via the present modelling procedure and analysis with the explicit LS-DYNTA 970 solver. Hence, a sophisticated ballistic impact testing facility and a high-speed camera have been used to conduct additional tests on grade 1100 aluminium plates of 1 mm thickness with projectiles Of four different nose shapes. Finally, using the developed numerical simulation procedure, an excellent correlation of residual velocity and failure modes with the corresponding test results has been obtained.