Decision trees for detection of activity intensity in youth with cerebral palsy

PURPOSE To develop and test decision tree (DT) models to classify physical activity (PA) intensity from accelerometer output and Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) classification level in ambulatory youth with cerebral palsy (CP); and 2) compare the classification accuracy of the new DT models to that achieved by previously published cut-points for youth with CP. METHODS Youth with CP (GMFCS Levels I - III) (N=51) completed seven activity trials with increasing PA intensity while wearing a portable metabolic system and ActiGraph GT3X accelerometers. DT models were used to identify vertical axis (VA) and vector magnitude (VM) count thresholds corresponding to sedentary (SED) (<1.5 METs), light PA (LPA) (>/=1.5 and <3 METs) and moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) (>/=3 METs). Models were trained and cross-validated using the 'rpart' and 'caret' packages within R. RESULTS For the VA (VA_DT) and VM decision trees (VM_DT), a single threshold differentiated LPA from SED, while the threshold for differentiating MVPA from LPA decreased as the level of impairment increased. The average cross-validation accuracy for the VC_DT was 81.1%, 76.7%, and 82.9% for GMFCS levels I, II, and III, respectively. The corresponding cross-validation accuracy for the VM_DT was 80.5%, 75.6%, and 84.2%, respectively. Within each GMFCS level, the decision tree models achieved better PA intensity recognition than previously published cut-points. The accuracy differential was greatest among GMFCS level III participants, in whom the previously published cut-points misclassified 40% of the MVPA activity trials. CONCLUSION GMFCS-specific cut-points provide more accurate assessments of MVPA levels in youth with CP across the full spectrum of ambulatory ability.

Debunking Weak Sustainable Consumption : Towards Strong Sustainable Consumption Governance

Achieving sustainable consumption patterns is a crucial step on the way towards sustainability. The scientific knowledge used to decide which priorities to set and how to enforce them has to converge with societal, political, and economic initiatives on various levels: from individual household decision-making to agreements and commitments in global policy processes. The aim of this thesis is to draw a comprehensive and systematic picture of sustainable consumption and to do this it develops the concept of Strong Sustainable Consumption Governance. In this concept, consumption is understood as resource consumption. This includes consumption by industries, public consumption, and household consumption. Next to the availability of resources (including the available sink capacity of the ecosystem) and their use and distribution among the Earth’s population, the thesis also considers their contribution to human well-being. This implies giving specific attention to the levels and patterns of consumption. Methods: The thesis introduces the terminology and various concepts of Sustainable Consumption and of Governance. It briefly elaborates on the methodology of Critical Realism and its potential for analysing Sustainable Consumption. It describes the various methods on which the research is based and sets out the political implications a governance approach towards Strong Sustainable Consumption may have. Two models are developed: one for the assessment of the environmental relevance of consumption activities, another to identify the influences of globalisation on the determinants of consumption opportunities. Results: One of the major challenges for Strong Sustainable Consumption is that it is not in line with the current political mainstream: that is, the belief that economic growth can cure all our problems. So, the proponents have to battle against a strong headwind. Their motivation however is the conviction that there is no alternative. Efforts have to be taken on multiple levels by multiple actors. And all of them are needed as they constitute the individual strings that together make up the rope. However, everyone must ensure that they are pulling in the same direction. It might be useful to apply a carrot and stick strategy to stimulate public debate. The stick in this case is to create a sense of urgency. The carrot would be to articulate better the message to the public that a shrinking of the economy is not as much of a disaster as mainstream economics tends to suggest. In parallel to this it is necessary to demand that governments take responsibility for governance. The dominant strategy is still information provision. But there is ample evidence that hard policies like regulatory instruments and economic instruments are most effective. As for Civil Society Organizations it is recommended that they overcome the habit of promoting Sustainable (in fact green) Consumption by using marketing strategies and instead foster public debate in values and well-being. This includes appreciating the potential of social innovation. A countless number of such initiatives are on the way but their potential is still insufficiently explored. Beyond the question of how to multiply such approaches, it is also necessary to establish political macro structures to foster them.

Keittiömaailman matkassa 20 vuotta : Tutkimus erään keittiökalustevalmistajan johtavan markkina-aseman rakentamisesta ja säilyttämisestä

A View into the World of Kitchen: Development and retention of a leading position in the market of kitchen interiors - a case study of 20 years. This study focuses on the development of a kitchen interiors company, presently called Novart Inc., into the leading company of the industry from 1980´s to the present. The objective of the study is to describe the effects of strategic choices, the decisions of the management and the owner´s direction and control to the build up and the retaining of the leading position in the market. From theory point of view, strategic choices refer to com-pany purchases as corporate-level strategies, and business and marketing strategies. The empirical research was carried out in two phases and it is based on various company documents and records, and on the intensive interviews of seven key executives in the company. An abductive research design was utilized. The company gained the leading position in the kitchen market in Finland by company purchases, and the company has been able to retain the position. Firstly the goal was to expand to retail market and, secondly, the company has maintained the balance of supply and demand by closing the purchased production units when needed. The simultaneous use of these two strategic goals is a kind of a new observation, and the strategy may be suitable only for market leaders. During the latter part of the research period the strategy of com-pany purchases has been abandoned and the leading position in the market has been main-tained by developing systematically business and marketing capability. In the business and marketing strategies the distribution channels and the brands have been emphasized. During the research period the company has almost totally abandoned the long distribution channels and started to use its own channels built and named after the main brands. These are A la Carte, Parma and Petra. At the moment, in the beginning of the 21st century, a new distribution channel, the concept of the Kitchen World, is being built in addition to the channels mentioned above. The management´s decision making and the implementation the decisions have been well-considered. The executives emphasized the valuing of the importance of the decisions dif-ferently except the two decisions named the most important ones, i.e., the decisions to start own production of the raw material and to concentrate the business only to one company. The executive staff has also succeeded in managing crisis and threats of bankruptcy, and the company has been managed profitable. During all the four terms of ownership: Puolimatka Corporation, the Hankkija/Novera Corporation, the ownership period of the "bank", and the Nobia Corporate the ownership direction and control has been somewhat different. All the owners have paid attention to economic issues. The direction of cash flows and investments was at its strongest during the Hankkija/Novera term. For the last owner Nobia the production and marketing of the kitchen interiors has been the core business, which thus has strengthened the business and marketing capabilities of the target company of this research. A common denominator during all the four terms of ownership has been owners' trust gained by the professional skills of the management of the target company. This has lead to greater independence of the management of the company and less owners´ direction. Keywords: leading position, marketing strategy, management decisions, acquisition, corporate governance

Challenges in developing a new regional road safety strategy for ASEAN

In 2011, more than 75,000 people died in road crashes in the ten member countries of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and many times this number sustained long term injuries. Improving road safety outcomes in ASEAN is not only important for the welfare and economic benefit of these countries, but given that a significant proportion of the world's population lives in ASEAN, it will strongly influence whether the aims of the United Nations Decade of Action for Road Safety and the Sustainable Development Goals are reached. Following the ASEAN Senior Transport Officials Meeting in May 2011, the Secretariat requested the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to provide assistance to improve road safety in ASEAN. In response, ADB, funded by the Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction, has funded a package of action to improve road safety in ASEAN, including the development of a new regional road safety strategy. The diversity of the member nations of ASEAN poses significant challenges for the development of the strategy. For example, the road fatality rates per 100,000 population in Malaysia and Thailand are about 5 times greater than in Singapore. In addition, the importance of particular road safety issues varies across the ASEAN countries and for countries which are undergoing rapid motorization, the order of importance may change over the life of the strategy. The development of the ASEAN Regional Road Safety Strategy has adopted the five pillars of road safety of the UN Decade of Action but focused on those aspects which are most relevant at the regional level and where a regional approach will support and facilitate actions taken by individual countries. A draft ASEAN Regional Road Safety Strategy document has been prepared and consultation will further refine its directions and contents. The paper will describe the processes undertaken to identify issues and solutions, the measurement of road safety maturity and behavioural risk factors, and the overall structure and themes of the strategy.

Ant colony optimization for reporting cell planning in mobile computing using selective paging strategy

Location management problem that arise in mobile computing networks is addressed. One method used in location management is to designate sonic of the cells in the network as "reporting cells". The other cells in the network are "non-reporting cells". Finding an optimal set of reporting cells (or reporting cell configuration) for a given network. is a difficult combinatorial optimization problem. In fact this is shown to be an NP-complete problem. in an earlier study. In this paper, we use the selective paging strategy and use an ant colony optimization method to obtain the best/optimal set of reporting cells for a given a network.

Novel modulation strategy for a CLC resonant dual active bridge

This paper proposes a novel modulation strategy for a phase controlled Capacitor-Inductor-Capacitor (CLC) Resonant Dual Active Bridge (RDAB). The proposed modulation strategy improves the soft turn-on, Zero-Current-Switching (ZCS) and Zero-Voltage-Switching (ZVS) range of the converter while only minimally increasing the required reactive currents in the ac link. A mathematical analysis of the proposed modulation scheme is presented along with a theoretical loss comparison between several modulation strategies. The proposed modulation strategy was implemented and the experimental results are presented.

Grazing impacts on the susceptibility of rangelands to wind erosion: The effects of stocking rate, stocking strategy and land condition

An estimated 110 Mt of dust is eroded by wind from the Australian land surface each year, most of which originates from the arid and semi-arid rangelands. Livestock production is thought to increase the susceptibility of the rangelands to wind erosion by reducing vegetation cover and modifying surface soil stability. However, research is yet to quantify the impacts of grazing land management on the erodibility of the Australian rangelands, or determine how these impacts vary among land types and over time. We present a simulation analysis that links a pasture growth and animal production model (GRASP) to the Australian Land Erodibility Model (AUSLEM) to evaluate the impacts of stocking rate, stocking strategy and land condition on the erodibility of four land types in western Queensland, Australia. Our results show that declining land condition, over stocking, and using inflexible stocking strategies have potential to increase land erodibility and amplify accelerated soil erosion. However, land erodibility responses to grazing are complex and influenced by land type sensitivities to different grazing strategies and local climate characteristics. Our simulations show that land types which are more resilient to livestock grazing tend to be least susceptible to accelerated wind erosion. Increases in land erodibility are found to occur most often during climatic transitions when vegetation cover is most sensitive to grazing pressure. However, grazing effects are limited during extreme wet and dry periods when the influence of climate on vegetation cover is strongest. Our research provides the opportunity to estimate the effects of different land management practices across a range of land types, and provides a better understanding of the mechanisms of accelerated erosion resulting from pastoral activities. The approach could help further assessment of land erodibility at a broader scale notably if combined with wind erosion models.

Assessment of functional forms of crop yield loss models of invasive plant species applied in decision support tools and bioeconomic modelling

AbstractObjectives Decision support tools (DSTs) for invasive species management have had limited success in producing convincing results and meeting users' expectations. The problems could be linked to the functional form of model which represents the dynamic relationship between the invasive species and crop yield loss in the DSTs. The objectives of this study were: a) to compile and review the models tested on field experiments and applied to DSTs; and b) to do an empirical evaluation of some popular models and alternatives. Design and methods This study surveyed the literature and documented strengths and weaknesses of the functional forms of yield loss models. Some widely used models (linear, relative yield and hyperbolic models) and two potentially useful models (the double-scaled and density-scaled models) were evaluated for a wide range of weed densities, maximum potential yield loss and maximum yield loss per weed. Results Popular functional forms include hyperbolic, sigmoid, linear, quadratic and inverse models. Many basic models were modified to account for the effect of important factors (weather, tillage and growth stage of crop at weed emergence) influencing weed–crop interaction and to improve prediction accuracy. This limited their applicability for use in DSTs as they became less generalized in nature and often were applicable to a much narrower range of conditions than would be encountered in the use of DSTs. These factors' effects could be better accounted by using other techniques. Among the model empirically assessed, the linear model is a very simple model which appears to work well at sparse weed densities, but it produces unrealistic behaviour at high densities. The relative-yield model exhibits expected behaviour at high densities and high levels of maximum yield loss per weed but probably underestimates yield loss at low to intermediate densities. The hyperbolic model demonstrated reasonable behaviour at lower weed densities, but produced biologically unreasonable behaviour at low rates of loss per weed and high yield loss at the maximum weed density. The density-scaled model is not sensitive to the yield loss at maximum weed density in terms of the number of weeds that will produce a certain proportion of that maximum yield loss. The double-scaled model appeared to produce more robust estimates of the impact of weeds under a wide range of conditions. Conclusions Previously tested functional forms exhibit problems for use in DSTs for crop yield loss modelling. Of the models evaluated, the double-scaled model exhibits desirable qualitative behaviour under most circumstances.

Exploring the Potential Impacts of Climate Variability on Spring Wheat Yield with the APSIM Decision Support Tool

Assessing the impacts of climate variability on agricultural productivity at regional, national or global scale is essential for defining adaptation and mitigation strategies. We explore in this study the potential changes in spring wheat yields at Swift Current and Melfort, Canada, for different sowing windows under projected climate scenarios (i.e., the representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). First, the APSIM model was calibrated and evaluated at the study sites using data from long term experimental field plots. Then, the impacts of change in sowing dates on final yield were assessed over the 2030-2099 period with a 1990-2009 baseline period of observed yield data, assuming that other crop management practices remained unchanged. Results showed that the performance of APSIM was quite satisfactory with an index of agreement of 0.80, R2 of 0.54, and mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of 529 kg/ha and 1023 kg/ha, respectively (MAE = 476 kg/ha and RMSE = 684 kg/ha in calibration phase). Under the projected climate conditions, a general trend in yield loss was observed regardless of the sowing window, with a range from -24 to -94 depending on the site and the RCP, and noticeable losses during the 2060s and beyond (increasing CO2 effects being excluded). Smallest yield losses obtained through earlier possible sowing date (i.e., mid-April) under the projected future climate suggested that this option might be explored for mitigating possible adverse impacts of climate variability. Our findings could therefore serve as a basis for using APSIM as a decision support tool for adaptation/mitigation options under potential climate variability within Western Canada.

Flying-foxes in the Australian urban environment - community attitudes and opinions

The urban presence of flying-foxes (pteropid bats) in eastern Australia has increased in the last 20 years, putatively reflecting broader landscape change. The influx of large numbers often precipitates community angst, typically stemming from concerns about loss of social amenity, economic loss or negative health impacts from recently emerged bat-mediated zoonotic diseases such as Hendra virus and Australian bat lyssavirus. Local authorities and state wildlife authorities are increasingly asked to approve the dispersal or modification of flying-fox roosts to address expressed concerns, yet the scale of this concern within the community, and the veracity of the basis for concern are often unclear. We conducted an on-line survey to capture community attitudes and opinions on flying-foxes in the urban environment to inform management policy and decision-making. Analysis focused on awareness, concerns, and management options, and primarily compared responses from communities where flying-fox management was and was not topical at the time of the survey. While a majority of respondents indicated a moderate to high level of knowledge of both flying-foxes and Hendra virus, a substantial minority mistakenly believed that flying-foxes pose a direct infection risk to humans, suggesting miscommunication or misinformation, and the need for additional risk communication strategies. Secondly, a minority of community members indicated they were directly impacted by urban roosts, most plausibly those living in close proximity to the roost, suggesting that targeted management options are warranted. Thirdly, neither dispersal nor culling was seen as an appropriate management strategy by the majority of respondents, including those from postcodes where flying-fox management was topical. These findings usefully inform community debate and policy development and demonstrate the value of social analysis in defining the issues and options in this complex human - wildlife interaction. The mobile nature of flying-foxes underlines the need for a management strategy at a regional or larger scale, and independent of state borders.

A randomized controlled trial protocol testing a decision support intervention for older patients with advanced kidney disease

Aim To assess the effectiveness of a decision support intervention using a pragmatic single blind Randomized Controlled Trial. Background Worldwide the proportion of older people (aged 65 years and over) is rising. This population is known to have a higher prevalence of chronic diseases including chronic kidney disease. The resultant effect of the changing health landscape is seen in the increase in older patients (aged ≥65 years) commencing on dialysis. Emerging evidence suggests that for some older patients dialysis may provide minimal benefit. In a majority of renal units non-dialysis management is offered as an alternative to undertaking dialysis. Research regarding decision-making support that is required to assist this population in choosing between dialysis or non-dialysis management is limited. Design. A multisite single blinded pragmatic randomized controlled trial is proposed. Methods Patients will be recruited from four Queensland public hospitals and randomizd into either the control or intervention group. The decision support intervention is multimodal and includes counselling provided by a trained nurse. The comparator is standard decision-making support. The primary outcomes are decisional regret and decisional conflict. Secondary outcomes are improved knowledge and quality of life. Ethics approval obtained November 2014. Conclusion This is one of the first randomized controlled trials assessing a decision support intervention in older people with advance chronic kidney disease. The results may provide guidance for clinicians in future approaches to assist this population in decision-making to ensure reduced decisional regret and decisional conflict.

Information Visualization in a Business Decision Support System

Information visualization is a process of constructing a visual presentation of abstract quantitative data. The characteristics of visual perception enable humans to recognize patterns, trends and anomalies inherent in the data with little effort in a visual display. Such properties of the data are likely to be missed in a purely text-based presentation. Visualizations are therefore widely used in contemporary business decision support systems. Visual user interfaces called dashboards are tools for reporting the status of a company and its business environment to facilitate business intelligence (BI) and performance management activities. In this study, we examine the research on the principles of human visual perception and information visualization as well as the application of visualization in a business decision support system. A review of current BI software products reveals that the visualizations included in them are often quite ineffective in communicating important information. Based on the principles of visual perception and information visualization, we summarize a set of design guidelines for creating effective visual reporting interfaces.