Using a panel structure to discuss the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in developing countries

The purpose of this paper is to test the implications of current account solvency for the savinginvestment correlation in developing countries. Since solvency is a long-run phenomenon, and given that the power of the standard unit root and cointegration tests is low, we exploit the panel structure of the sample of 29 developing countries. We find evidence that saving and investment are cointegrated and that the current account is stationary. Therefore, the Feldstein-Horioka correlations are not a puzzle in the sense they reflect the intertemporal budget constraint. The same results are obtained for different subsamples (Africa, Asia, and Latin America) and for different periods of time (1960-74 and 1975-96). We, then, suggest that an error correction model should distinguish between the long-run correlation, which reflects the solvency condition, and the short-run correlation, which could measure capital mobility.

Automatic model selection for forecasting brazilian stock returns

This study aims to contribute on the forecasting literature in stock return for emerging markets. We use Autometrics to select relevant predictors among macroeconomic, microeconomic and technical variables. We develop predictive models for the Brazilian market premium, measured as the excess return over Selic interest rate, Itaú SA, Itaú-Unibanco and Bradesco stock returns. We nd that for the market premium, an ADL with error correction is able to outperform the benchmarks in terms of economic performance. For individual stock returns, there is a trade o between statistical properties and out-of-sample performance of the model.

Automatic model selection for forecasting Brazilian stock returns

This study aims to contribute on the forecasting literature in stock return for emerging markets. We use Autometrics to select relevant predictors among macroeconomic, microeconomic and technical variables. We develop predictive models for the Brazilian market premium, measured as the excess return over Selic interest rate, Itaú SA, Itaú-Unibanco and Bradesco stock returns. We find that for the market premium, an ADL with error correction is able to outperform the benchmarks in terms of economic performance. For individual stock returns, there is a trade o between statistical properties and out-of-sample performance of the model.

Price discovery using a regime-sensitive cointegration approach

This work proposes a method to examine variations in the cointegration relation between preferred and common stocks in the Brazilian stock market via Markovian regime switches. It aims on contributing for future works in "pairs trading" and, more specifically, to price discovery, given that, conditional on the state, the system is assumed stationary. This implies there exists a (conditional) moving average representation from which measures of "information share" (IS) could be extracted. For identification purposes, the Markov error correction model is estimated within a Bayesian MCMC framework. Inference and capability of detecting regime changes are shown using a Montecarlo experiment. I also highlight the necessity of modeling financial effects of high frequency data for reliable inference.

O que explica a reduzida taxa de desemprego no Brasil no início do século XXI

A taxa de desemprego no Brasil sofreu redução significativa do começo do século XXI até o fim do ano de 2014. No entanto, esta redução significativa não foi acompanhada do esperado crescimento econômico disposto na teoria. Desta forma, constata-se que embora a taxa de desemprego tenha se reduzido, não necessariamente as pessoas estavam trabalhando e produzindo. Procurará se entender os fatores que influenciaram esta trajetória de redução da taxa de desemprego por meio de influência na PEA e no número de admissões de empregados, que aproximaremos à oferta e à demanda por mão de obra. Ou seja, pretende-se verificar as variáveis que influenciaram uma possível redução da oferta de trabalho, assim como uma maior demanda por trabalho, resultantes em uma redução da taxa de desemprego. Serão consideradas variáveis de renda, de transferência de renda, de educação e de crescimento econômico na análise das influências da baixa taxa de desemprego. Com base em um modelo vetor de correção de erros (VEC) pretende-se identificar quais variáveis efetivamente afetaram o panorama do desemprego.

Eficiência e razão de hedge: uma análise dos mercados futuro brasileiros de boi, café, etanol, milho e soja

This research aims to investigate the Hedge Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio for the future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol, corn and soybean. This paper uses the Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedge Effectiveness through multivariate GARCH models with error correction, attempting to the possible phenomenon of Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period. The Optimal Hedge Ratio must be bigger in the intercrop period due to the uncertainty related to a possible supply shock (LAZZARINI, 2010). Among the future contracts studied in this research, the coffee, ethanol and soybean contracts were not object of this phenomenon investigation, yet. Furthermore, the corn and ethanol contracts were not object of researches which deal with Dynamic Hedging Strategy. This paper distinguishes itself for including the GARCH model with error correction, which it was never considered when the possible Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period were investigated. The commodities quotation were used as future price in the market future of BM&FBOVESPA and as spot market, the CEPEA index, in the period from May 2010 to June 2013 to cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and to August 2012 to soybean, with daily frequency. Similar results were achieved for all the commodities. There is a long term relationship among the spot market and future market, bicausality and the spot market and future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and unicausality of the future price of soybean on spot price. The Optimal Hedge Ratio was estimated from three different strategies: linear regression by MQO, BEKK-GARCH diagonal model, and BEKK-GARCH diagonal with intercrop dummy. The MQO regression model, pointed out the Hedge inefficiency, taking into consideration that the Optimal Hedge presented was too low. The second model represents the strategy of dynamic hedge, which collected time variations in the Optimal Hedge. The last Hedge strategy did not detect Optimal Hedge Ratio differential between the crop and intercrop period, therefore, unlikely what they expected, the investor do not need increase his/her investment in the future market during the intercrop

A influência do sorriso gengival no vedamentos labial

Ideally the smile should expose minimal gingival, therefore patients with gummy smile and passive eruption altered or excessive marginal gingivae, usually excessive gingival display because incomplete anatomical crown exposure is present. If the maxillary incisor show at rest is optimal, active upper incisor intrusion should not be iniciated. To achieve a smile with minimal gingival exposure, the anatomic crown should be fully exposed by surgical crown lengthening. Precise determination of the location of cementoenamel junction prior to surgery, precise placement of incisions and correct establish of biological width are necessary in order to achive this goal. One protocol is decribed and clinical results from 15 brazilian subjects, after three years post surgery are showed

Crescimento econômico e restrição externa: evidências empíricas na economia brasileira (1991-2010)

This study aims to investigate the influence of the balance of payments constrained on economic growth in Brazil from 1991 to 2010. With this order, are shown some of the Keynesian balance of payments constrained growth models, inspired by Thirlwall (1979) and Kaldor (1970), which are supported by important points in common, such as adherence to the principle of effective demand. Given that within this theoretical perspective, there is no consensus about the best model to explain the growth rate allowed by the balance of payments constraint, the results are presented by the representative of the empirical literature that addresses the topic, which are necessary for understand the Brazilian case. From the estimation of the income elasticity of imports (0.85) via autoregressive vectors with error correction (VEC), it was calculated five growth rates of income, as predicted by the models of Thirlwall (1979), Thirlwall and Hussain (1982), Moreno-Brid (1998, 2003) and Lourenço et al. (2011) and compared with the actual growth rate. The empirical analysis has shown that: it can not reject the presence of external constraint in the Brazilian economy, there is a strong similarity in growth rates provided by different modeling suggest that growth with external constraint. In addition, when using data in quarterly for the period after 1990 there are no factors that could cause instability in the parameters of the import function (income elasticity and price elasticity of imports) within the period, which indicates that the structural break widely associated with the year 1994 was not confirmed by this study

Caracterização numérica de antenas para aplicações RFID utilizando o método das ondas - WCIP

In recent years, the radio frequency identification technology (RFID) has gained great interest both industrial communities as scientific communities. Its ability to locate and monitor objects, animals and persons with active or passive tags allows easy development, with good cost-benefice and still presents undeniable benefits in applications ranging from logistics to healthcare, robotics, security, among others. Within this aspect what else comes excelling are RFID tags and the antennas used in RFID readers. Most tags have antennas omnidirectional and are usually manufactured as dipoles modified printed. The primary purpose of a project of antenna for tag is to achieve the required input impedance to perform a good marriage impedance with the load impedance of the chip. Already the objective principal in project of antennas for readers is to achieve reduced sizes and structures with good data transmission capacity. This work brings the numerical characterization of antennas for RFID applications, being these divided into tags RFID and antennas for RFID readers. Three tags RFID and two antennas for RFID readers, found in literature, are analyzed. The analysis of these structures is made using the Method of Waves - WCIP. Initial results found in the literature are compared with those obtained through simulations in WCIP with objective to show that the Method of Waves is able to analyze such structures. To illustrate the results obtained in simulations is presented the behavior of electric and magnetic fields. It also performed a literature review on the characteristics and principles of RFID technology. Suggestions for continuity to this work are presented

A amizade para Foucault: resistências criativas face ao biopoder

O artigo trabalha a noção de amizade em Foucault como um modo de vida que se opõe ao processo de normalização empreendido pelo biopoder. Inicia com uma caracterização acerca do Estado Moderno. Logo após, aborda a historicidade dos processos de subjetivação e de como a atitude frente a estes implica estados de maior autonomia ou sujeição. em seguida, aborda a amizade como resistência à normalização, situando-a em relação ao prazer e à sexualidade. Por fim, discute o papel da filosofia no processo de constituição da amizade, particularmente quanto à possibilidade de pensá-la por meio de uma teoria das relações.

On determining spectral parameters, tracking jitter, and GPS positioning improvement by scintillation mitigation

A method of determining spectral parameters p (slope of the phase PSD) and T (phase PSD at 1 Hz) and hence tracking error variance in a GPS receiver PLL from just amplitude and phase scintillation indices and an estimated value of the Fresnel frequency has been previously presented. Here this method is validated using 50 Hz GPS phase and amplitude data from high latitude receivers in northern Norway and Svalbard. This has been done both using (1) a Fresnel frequency estimated using the amplitude PSD (in order to check the accuracy of the method) and (2) a constant assumed value of Fresnel frequency for the data set, convenient for the situation when contemporaneous phase PSDs are not available. Both of the spectral parameters (p, T) calculated using this method are in quite good agreement with those obtained by direct measurements of the phase spectrum as are tracking jitter variances determined for GPS receiver PLLs using these values. For the Svalbard data set, a significant difference in the scintillation level observed on the paths from different satellites received simultaneously was noted. Then, it is shown that the accuracy of relative GPS positioning can be improved by use of the tracking jitter variance in weighting the measurements from each satellite used in the positioning estimation. This has significant advantages for scintillation mitigation, particularly since the method can be accomplished utilizing only time domain measurements thus obviating the need for the phase PSDs in order to extract the spectral parameters required for tracking jitter determination.

Quality of TEC Estimated with Mod Ion Using GPS and GLONASS Data

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)