Media bias and central bank response. Evidence from the nominal exchange rate behavior in Colombia

Since 1991 Colombia has had a market-determined Peso - US Dollar Nominal Exchange Rate (NER), after more than 20 years of controlled and multiple exchange rates. The behavior (revaluation / devaluation) of the NER is constantly reported in news, editorials and op-eds of major newspapers of the nation with particular attention to revaluation. The uneven reporting of revaluation episodes can be explained by the existence of an interest group particulary affected by revaluation, looking to increase awareness and sympathy for help from public institutions. Using the number of news and op-eds from a major Colombian newspaper, it is shown that there is an over-reporting of revaluation episodes in contrast to devaluation ones. Secondly, using text analysis upon the content of the news, it is also shown that the words devaluation and revaluation are far apart in the distribution of words within the news; and revaluation is highly correlated with words related to: public institutions, exporters and the need of assistance. Finally it is also shown that the probability of the central bank buying US dollars to lessen revaluation effects increases with the number of news; even though the central bank allegedly intervenes in the exchange rate market only to tame volatility or accumulate international reserves.

La cooperación internacional como instrumento para la construcción de paz en Colombia. Estudio de caso del proyecto “Fortalecimiento institucional para la atención a las víctimas del conflicto (FORVIC)” (2009-2014)

El presente estudio de caso pretende analizar los alcances de la cooperación internacional en materia de justicia transicional y construcción de paz tomando en consideración un proyecto de cooperación internacional emblemático denominado Fortalecimiento Institucional para la Atención a las Víctimas del Conflicto o FORVIC. Para conseguir esto, se analizarán primero los efectos generados por el Proyecto FORVIC en materia de fortalecimiento del Estado de Derecho y lucha contra la impunidad en Colombia, y a partir de los hallazgos se constituirán y se propondrán una serie de condiciones sobre las que puede pensarse la cooperación internacional como un instrumento genuino para la construcción de paz en Colombia.

Efficiency and Equity in Learning Communities and schools

Traditionally, school efficiency has been measured as a function of educational production. In the last two decades, however, studies in the economics of education have indicated that more is required to improve school efficiency: researchers must explore how significant changes in school organization affect the performance of at-risk students. In this paper we introduce Henry Levin’s adoption of the X-efficiency approach to education and we describe the efficient and cost-effective characteristics of one Learning Communities Project School that significantly improved its student outcomes and enrollment numbers and reduced its absenteeism rate to zero. The organizational change that facilitated these improvements defined specific issues to address. Students’ school success became the focus of the school project, which also offered specific incentives, selected teachers, involved parents and community members in decisions, and used the most efficient technologies and methods. This case analysis reveals new two elements—family training and community involvement—that were not explicit parts of Levin’s adaptation. The case of the Antonio Machado Public School should attract the attention of both social scientists and policy makers

Key Issues on the Brazilian Foreign Policy (Coyuntura)

El artículo trata sobre diferentes visiones de la política exterior brasilera. Primero introduce las principales directivas de la política exterior: desarrollo económico y social, así como delimitación limítrofe con los países de América del Sur. La segunda establece la situación de las relaciones de Brasil luego de la guerra fría, con algunos países y regiones en el mundo: Estados Unidos, Unión Europea, América Latina, China, África, India y otras regiones. Finalmente se refiere a los intereses nacionales brasileros en las Naciones Unidas en campos como energía, medio ambiente y defensa.

Pre-empting technical barriers in the Single Market. CEPS Policy Brief No. 277, 11 July 2012

Effective enforcement and compliance with EU law is not just a legal necessity, it is also of economic interest since the potential of the Single Market will be fully exploited. Enforcement barriers generate unjustified costs and hindrances or uncertainty for cross-border business and might deprive consumers from receiving the full benefit of greater choice and/or cheaper offers. The EU has developed several types of enforcement efforts (preventive initiatives, pre-infringement initiatives and formal infringement procedures). More recently, the emphasis has been placed on effective prevention. This CEPS Policy Brief analyses the functioning of one preventive mechanism (the 98/34 Directive) and assesses its potential to detect and prevent technical or other barriers in the course of the last 25 years. Based on an empirical approach, it shows that this amazing mechanism has successfully prevented thousands of new technical barriers from arising in the internal goods market.

Can Italy and Spain survive rates of 6-7%? CEPS Policy Brief No. 279, 27 July 2012

The sentiment that the euro is now in real danger is based in large part on the widespread conviction that interest rates of 6-7% are simply unsustainable for both Italy and Spain., After taking a closer look at the fundamentals, however, Daniel Gros concludes in this new Policy Brief that both countries should be able to live with this level of interest rates for quite some time, but only if they mobilize domestic savings, which remain strong in both countries. For Spain, some debt/equity swaps are also needed.

Adjusting to a credit cycle bust: The role of fiscal policy. CEPS Commentary, 27 July 2012

In response to the often-heard accusation that “austerity is killing growth in Europe”, Daniel Gros asks in this new Commentary: “What austerity?” Looking at the entire budget cycle, he finds that the picture of austerity killing growth simply does not hold up. Since the bursting of the bubble in 2007, Gros reports that the economic performance of the US has been very similar to that of the euro area: GDP per capita is today about 2% below the 2007 level on both sides of the Atlantic; and the unemployment rate has increased by about the same amount as well: it increased by 3% both in the US and the euro area. Thus, he concludes that over a five-year period, the US has not done any better than the euro area although it has used a much larger dose of fiscal expansion.

The post-Lisbon role of the European Parliament in the EU's Common Commercial Policy: Implications for bilateral trade negotiations. EU Diplomacy Paper 05/2012, July 2012

This paper sets out to conduct an empirical analysis of the post-Lisbon role of the European Parliament (EP) in the EU’s Common Commercial Policy through an examination of the ‘deep and comprehensive’ bilateral Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) currently negotiated as part of the EU’s Global Europe strategy. The EU-Korea and EU-India FTAs are used as case studies in order to determine the implications of the EP’s enhanced trade powers on the processes, actors and outcomes of EU bilateral trade policy. The EP is now endowed with the ‘hard power’ of consent in the ratification phase of FTAs, acting as a threat to strengthen its ‘soft power’ to influence negotiations. The EP is developing strategies to influence the mandate and now plays an important role in the implementation of FTAs. The entry of this new player on the Brussels trade policy field has brought about a shift in the institutional balance of power and opened up the EP as a new point of access for trade policy lobbyists. Finally, increased EP involvement in EU trade policy has brought about a politicisation of EU trade policy and greater normative outcomes of FTAs.

Heterotic and seed rate effects on nitrogen efficiencies in wheat

Four field experiments over 2 years investigated whether wheat hybrids had higher nitrogen-use efficiency (NUE) than their parents over a range of seed rates and different N regimes. There was little heterosis for total N in the above-ground biomass (NYt), but there was high-parent heterosis for grain N yields (NYg) in two of the hybrids, Hyno Esta and Hyno Rista, associated with greater nitrogen harvest index (NHI). Overall, the hybrids did not significantly increase the total dry matter produced per unit N in the above-ground crop (NUtE(t)), but did increase the grain dry matter per unit N in the above ground crop (NUtE(g)). The improvement in NUtE(g) was at the partial detriment of grain N concentration. Heterosis for grain NYg in Hyno Esta was lower at zero-N, suggesting that it did not achieve higher yields through more efficient capture or utilization of N. The greater NHI in Hyno Esta appeared to be facilitated by both greater N uptake, and remobilization of N from vegetative tissues, after anthesis. The response of N efficiency and uptake to seed rate was dependent on N supply and season. Where N fertilizer was applied, N uptake over time was slower at the lower seed rates, but where N was withheld N capture at the lowest seed rate soon approached the N capture of the higher seed rates. During grain filling, the rate of accumulation of N into the grain increased with seed rate and the duration of N accumulation decreased with seed rate. With N applied, N yields increased to all asymptote with seed rate, when N was withheld there was little response of N yields to seed rate. In 2002, N utilization efficiency (NUtE(t) and NUtE(g)) also increased asymptotically with seed rate, but in 2003 seed rate had little effect on N utilization efficiency. When nitrogen fertilizer had not been applied, NHI consistently decreased with increasing seed rate. The timing of N application made little difference to NUE, NY, or NUtE.

Nitrogen fertilizer and seed rate effects on Hagberg failing number of hybrid wheats and their parents are associated with alpha-amylase activity, grain cavity size and dormancy

Field experiments were carried out to assess the effects of nitrogen fertilization and seed rate on the Hagberg falling number (HFN) of commercial wheat hybrids and their parents. Applying nitrogen (200 kg N ha(-1)) increased HFN in two successive years. The HFN of the hybrid Hyno Esta was lower than either of its parents (Estica and Audace), particularly when nitrogen was not applied. Treatment effects on HFN were negatively associated with a-amylase activity. Phadebas grain blotting suggested two populations of grains with different types of a-amylase activity: Estica appeared to have a high proportion of grains with low levels of late maturity endosperm a-amylase activity (LMEA); Audace had a few grains showing high levels of germination amylase; and the hybrid, Hyno Esta, combined the sources from both parents to show heterosis for a-amylase activity. Applying nitrogen reduced both apparent LMEA and germination amylase. The effects on LMEA were associated with the size and disruption of the grain cavity, which was greater in Hyno Esta and Estica and in zero-nitrogen treatments. External grain morphology failed to explain much of the variation in LMEA and cavity size, but there was a close negative correlation between cavity size and protein content. Applying nitrogen increased post-harvest dormancy of the grain. Dormancy was greatest in Estica and least in Audace. It is proposed that effects of seed rate, genotype and nitrogen fertilizer on HFN are mediated through factors affecting the size and disruption of the grain cavity and therefore LMEA, and through factors affecting dormancy and therefore germination amylase. (c) 2004 Society of Chemical Industry.

The influence of larval density, food availability and habitat longevity on the life history and population growth rate of the midge Chironomus riparius

Despite long-standing interest in the forms and mechanisms of density dependence, these are still imperfectly understood. However, in a constant environment an increase in density must reduce per capita resource availability, which in turn leads to reduced survival, fecundity and somatic growth rate. Here we report two population experiments examining the density dependent responses under controlled conditions of an important indicator species, Chironomus riparius. The first experiment was run for 35 weeks and was started at low density with replicate populations being fed three different rations. Increased ration reduced generation time and increased population growth rate (pgr) but had no effect on survival, fecundity and female body weight in the first generation. In the second generation there was a six-fold increase in generation time, presumably due to the greatly reduced per capita resource availability as the estimated initial densities of the second generation were 300 times greater than the first. Juvenile survival to emergence, fecundity, adult body weight and pgr declined by 90%, 75%, 35% and 99%, respectively. These large between-generation effects may have obscured the effects of the threefold variation in ration, as only survival to emergence significantly increased with ration in the second generation. These results suggest that some chironomid larvae survive a reduction in resource availability by growing more slowly. In the ephemeral habitats sometimes occupied by C. riparius, the effects of population density may depend crucially on the longevity of the environment. A second experiment was therefore performed to measure pgr from six different starting densities over an eight-week period. The relationship between pgr and density was concave, viewed from above. At densities above 16 larvae per cm(2), less than 1% of the population emerged and no offspring were produced. Under the conditions of experiment 2 - an 8-week habitat lifespan carrying capacity was estimated as 8 larvae per cm(2).

Gas-phase rate coefficients for the reactions of O(3P), S(3P), Se(3P), and Te(3P) with alkenes: application of perturbation frontier molecular orbital theory, correlations, and structure-activity relations (SARs)

The kinetics of the reactions of the atoms O(P-3), S(P-3), Se(P-3), and Te((3)p) with a series of alkenes are examined for correlations relating the logarithms of the rate coefficients to the energies of the highest occupied molecular orbitals (HOMOs) of the alkenes. These correlations may be employed to predict rate coefficients from the calculated HOMO energy of any other alkene of interest. The rate coefficients obtained from the correlations were used to formulate structure-activity relations (SARs) for reactions of O((3)p), S(P-3), Se (P-3), and Te((3)p) with alkenes. A comparison of the values predicted by both the correlations and the SARs with experimental data where they exist allowed us to assess the reliability of our method. We demonstrate the applicability of perturbation frontier molecular orbital theory to gas-phase reactions of these atoms with alkenes. The correlations are apparently not applicable to reactions of C(P-3), Si(P-3), N(S-4), and Al(P-2) atoms with alkenes, a conclusion that could be explained in terms of a different mechanism for reaction of these atoms.

Periodic time series modeling of environmental proxy records with guaranteed positive growth rate estimation

Identifying a periodic time-series model from environmental records, without imposing the positivity of the growth rate, does not necessarily respect the time order of the data observations. Consequently, subsequent observations, sampled in the environmental archive, can be inversed on the time axis, resulting in a non-physical signal model. In this paper an optimization technique with linear constraints on the signal model parameters is proposed that prevents time inversions. The activation conditions for this constrained optimization are based upon the physical constraint of the growth rate, namely, that it cannot take values smaller than zero. The actual constraints are defined for polynomials and first-order splines as basis functions for the nonlinear contribution in the distance-time relationship. The method is compared with an existing method that eliminates the time inversions, and its noise sensitivity is tested by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, the usefulness of the method is demonstrated on the measurements of the vessel density, in a mangrove tree, Rhizophora mucronata, and the measurement of Mg/Ca ratios, in a bivalve, Mytilus trossulus.

Public policy and foreign-based enterprises in Britain prior to the Second World War

This article examines the early evolution of British policy, prior to the Second World War. The British government adopted an ‘open’ policy towards foreign direct investment (FDI), despite periodic fears that some foreign acquisitions of UK firms in key sectors might be detrimental to the national interest, and a few ad hoc attempts to deal with particular instances of this kind. During the 1930s, when the inflow of foreign firms accelerated following Britain's adoption of general tariff protection, the government developed a sophisticated admissions policy, based on an assessment of the likely net benefit of each applicant to the British economy. Its limited regulatory powers were used to maximize the potential of immigrant firms for technology transfer, enhanced competition, industrial diversification, and employment creation (particularly in the depressed regions), while protecting British industries suffering from excess capacity.

Policy making without legislating: the self-regulation of commercial property leasing

The terms of a commercial property lease covers aspects such as rent, alterations to premises and the ability to leave; consequently they have a significant impact on cash flow and the ability of a business to develop. In contrast to the heavily-legislated residential sector, commercial landlords and tenants in the UK are largely free to negotiate the terms of their contract. Yet, since the property crash of 1989/90, successive governments have taken an interest in commercial leasing; in particular there is a desire to see landlords being more flexible. UK Government policy in this area has been pursued through industry self-regulation rather than legislation; since 1995 there have been three industry codes of practice on leasing. These codes are sanctioned by government and monitored by them. Yet, 15 years after the first code was launched, many in the industry see the whole code concept as ineffective and unlikely to ever achieve changes to certain aspects of landlord behaviour. This paper is the first step in considering the lease codes in the wider context of industry self-regulation. The aim of the paper is twofold: First a framework is created using the literature on industry self-regulation from various countries and industries which suggests key criteria to explain the effectiveness (or ineffectiveness) of self-regulation. This is then applied to the UK lease codes based on research carried out by the authors for the UK Government to monitor the success of all three codes. The outcome is a clearer understanding of the possibilities and limitations of using a voluntary solution to achieve policy aims within the property industry.