A Quantile-Based Probabilistic Mean Value Theorem

For non-negative random variables with finite means we introduce an analogous of the equilibrium residual-lifetime distribution based on the quantile function. This allows us to construct new distributions with support (0, 1), and to obtain a new quantile-based version of the probabilistic generalization of Taylor's theorem. Similarly, for pairs of stochastically ordered random variables we come to a new quantile-based form of the probabilistic mean value theorem. The latter involves a distribution that generalizes the Lorenz curve. We investigate the special case of proportional quantile functions and apply the given results to various models based on classes of distributions and measures of risk theory. Motivated by some stochastic comparisons, we also introduce the “expected reversed proportional shortfall order”, and a new characterization of random lifetimes involving the reversed hazard rate function.

In Search of a Feasible EU-Mercosul Free Trade Agreement. CEPS Working Document No. 378, 25 February 2013

This paper aims at identifying ways to pursue the EU–Mercosul negotiations leading to a free trade agreement (FTA). After reviewing their already long history, it outlines a basic framework, in goods, services and other themes, judged possible. The main point is that, given the prevailing conditions on both sides, an agreement to be signed within a reasonable time must be modest, i.e. along the described lines. It then clearly sets up the decisions confronting the negotiators: either to pursue the modest, feasible option or to terminate negotiations under the FTA heading. The latter, however, does not imply an end to the dialogue. Many actions and measures may be taken – which are easier to discuss and fix – that could pave the way for, in due time, a closer-to-ideal FTA to be considered again. These are the subjects of a last section.

Measuring the Modern Social Market Economy. Future Social Market Economy Policy Brief #2012/04

The “Index of Modern Social Market Economies” (MSME Index) defines and measures the features of a modern social market economy in international comparison. In contrast to other indices that measure economic performance, the MSME Index takes an institutional approach, outlining a system of essential institutions and measurable indicators for the construction and assessment of modern social market economies. Among other insights, the index could guide the European Union toward achieving the “highly competitive social market economy” that it defines in the Lisbon Treaty as its desired economic order.

Is socioeconomic position early in life associated with physical activity during adulthood following the accumulation of risk model with additive effects?

L'activité physique améliore la santé, mais seulement 4.8% des Canadiens atteignent le niveau recommandé. La position socio-économique est un des déterminants de l'activité physique les plus importants. Elle est associée à l’activité physique de manière transversale à l’adolescence et à l’âge adulte. Cette thèse a tenté de déterminer s'il y a une association à long terme entre la position socio-économique au début du parcours de vie et l’activité physique à l’âge adulte. S'il y en avait une, un deuxième objectif était de déterminer quel modèle théorique en épidémiologie des parcours de vie décrivait le mieux sa forme. Cette thèse comprend trois articles: une recension systématique et deux recherches originales. Dans la recension systématique, des recherches ont été faites dans Medline et EMBASE pour trouver les études ayant mesuré la position socio-économique avant l'âge de 18 ans et l'activité physique à ≥18 ans. Dans les deux recherches originales, la modélisation par équations structurelles a été utilisée pour comparer trois modèles alternatifs en épidémiologie des parcours de vie: le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effets additifs, le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effet déclenché et le modèle de période critique. Ces modèles ont été comparés dans deux cohortes prospectives représentatives à l'échelle nationale: la 1970 British birth cohort (n=16,571; première recherche) et l’Enquête longitudinale nationale sur les enfants et les jeunes (n=16,903; deuxième recherche). Dans la recension systématique, 10 619 articles ont été passés en revue par deux chercheurs indépendants et 42 ont été retenus. Pour le résultat «activité physique» (tous types et mesures confondus), une association significative avec la position socio-économique durant l’enfance fut trouvée dans 26/42 études (61,9%). Quand seulement l’activité physique durant les loisirs a été considérée, une association significative fut trouvée dans 21/31 études (67,7%). Dans un sous-échantillon de 21 études ayant une méthodologie plus forte, les proportions d’études ayant trouvé une association furent plus hautes : 15/21 (71,4%) pour tous les types et toutes les mesures d’activité physique et 12/15 (80%) pour l’activité physique de loisir seulement. Dans notre première recherche originale sur les données de la British birth cohort, pour la classe sociale, nous avons trouvé que le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effets additifs s’est ajusté le mieux chez les hommes et les femmes pour l’activité physique de loisir, au travail et durant les transports. Dans notre deuxième recherche originale sur les données canadiennes sur l'activité physique de loisir, nous avons trouvé que chez les hommes, le modèle de période critique s’est ajusté le mieux aux données pour le niveau d’éducation et le revenu, alors que chez les femmes, le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effets additifs s’est ajusté le mieux pour le revenu, tandis que le niveau d’éducation ne s’est ajusté à aucun des modèles testés. En conclusion, notre recension systématique indique que la position socio-économique au début du parcours de vie est associée à la pratique d'activité physique à l'âge adulte. Les résultats de nos deux recherches originales suggèrent un patron d’associations le mieux représenté par le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effets additifs.

Risk of Cerebral Venous Thrombosis in Obese Women.

IMPORTANCE Obesity is a risk factor for deep vein thrombosis of the leg and pulmonary embolism. To date, however, whether obesity is associated with adult cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) has not been assessed. OBJECTIVE To assess whether obesity is a risk factor for CVT. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A case-control study was performed in consecutive adult patients with CVT admitted from July 1, 2006 (Amsterdam), and October 1, 2009 (Berne), through December 31, 2014, to the Academic Medical Center in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, or Inselspital University Hospital in Berne, Switzerland. The control group was composed of individuals from the control population of the Multiple Environmental and Genetic Assessment of Risk Factors for Venous Thrombosis study, which was a large Dutch case-control study performed from March 1, 1999, to September 31, 2004, and in which risk factors for deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism were assessed. Data analysis was performed from January 2 to July 12, 2015. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Obesity was determined by body mass index (BMI). A BMI of 30 or greater was considered to indicate obesity, and a BMI of 25 to 29.99 was considered to indicate overweight. A multiple imputation procedure was used for missing data. We adjusted for sex, age, history of cancer, ethnicity, smoking status, and oral contraceptive use. Individuals with normal weight (BMI <25) were the reference category. RESULTS The study included 186 cases and 6134 controls. Cases were younger (median age, 40 vs 48 years), more often female (133 [71.5%] vs 3220 [52.5%]), more often used oral contraceptives (97 [72.9%] vs 758 [23.5%] of women), and more frequently had a history of cancer (17 [9.1%] vs 235 [3.8%]) compared with controls. Obesity (BMI ≥30) was associated with an increased risk of CVT (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 2.63; 95% CI, 1.53-4.54). Stratification by sex revealed a strong association between CVT and obesity in women (adjusted OR, 3.50; 95% CI, 2.00-6.14) but not in men (adjusted OR, 1.16; 95% CI, 0.25-5.30). Further stratification revealed that, in women who used oral contraceptives, overweight and obesity were associated with an increased risk of CVT in a dose-dependent manner (BMI 25.0-29.9: adjusted OR, 11.87; 95% CI, 5.94-23.74; BMI ≥30: adjusted OR, 29.26; 95% CI, 13.47-63.60). No association was found in women who did not use oral contraceptives. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Obesity is a strong risk factor for CVT in women who use oral contraceptives.

Final report of the highway cost allocation study /

Includes bibliographies.

Joint committee report: signaling, interlocking.

"Statement of the actions of the Signal committee of the Presidents' conference committee, and the Division of valuation of the interstate commerce commission, in respect to the organisation of the Joint committee for the consideration and determination of prices, weights, and cost of signaling and interlocking apparatus": p. i-iii., v. 1.

WHOQOL-BREF as a measure of quality of life in older patients with depression

Objective: To assess the reliability and validity of a brief measure of quality of life recently developed by the World Health Organization, the WHOQOL-BREF, and to examine its association with a variety of clinical and sociodemographic factors in older depressed patients. Design: Cross-sectional study. Methods: Older depressed patients (N=41) underwent diagnostic assessment using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) and were independently assessed on a variety of measures including the WHOQOL-BREF (a 26-item self-report questionnaire generating four domain scores), Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAM-D); Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS); Mini-mental State Examination (MMSE); Modified Barthel Index (MBI); Instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), and measures of physical health status and social relationships. Estimates of inter-rater and test-retest reliability, and concurrent validity were made. Results: 39 subjects completed the study. The majority of subjects (94.9%) received a diagnosis of DSM-IV Major Depressive Disorder. Levels of comorbidity were high. Three of the four domains of the WHOQOL-BREF (Physical, Psychological and Environment domains) demonstrated satisfactory reliability and validity. However, the Social Relationships domain exhibited poor validity. Quality of life scores were strongly correlated with severity of depression, number of self-reported physical symptoms and self-assessed general health status. There was no relationship between diagnostic comorbidity and quality of life scores. Conclusions: The WHOQOL-BREF was successfully administered to older depressed patients although the concurrent validity of one of its four domains was poor. Quality of life scores were strongly correlated with severity of depression, raising the issue of measurement redundancy.

Community-based programmes to prevent pedestrian injuries in children 0-14 years: A systematic review

Community-based models for injury prevention have become an accepted part of the overall injury control strategy. This systematic review of the scientific literature examines the evidence for their effectiveness in reducing pedestrian injury in children 0-14 years of age. A comprehensive search of the literature was performed using the following study selection criteria: community-based intervention study; target population was children under 14 years; outcome measure is either pedestrian injury rates or observed child pedestrian or vehicle driver behaviour; and use of a community control or an historical control in the study design. Quality assessment and data abstraction was guided by a standardized procedure and performed independently by two authors. Data synthesis was in tabular and text form with meta-analysis not being possible due to the discrepancy in methods and measures between the studies.

On minimal models of process systems

Minimal representations are known to have no redundant elements, and are therefore of great importance. Based on the notions of performance and size indices and measures for process systems, the paper proposes conditions for a process model being minimal in a set of functionally equivalent models with respect to a size norm. Generalized versions of known procedures to obtain minimal process models for a given modelling goal, model reduction based on sensitivity analysis and incremental model building are proposed and discussed. The notions and procedures are illustrated and compared on a simple example, that of a simple nonlinear fermentation process with different modelling goals and on a case study of a heat exchanger modelling. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prospective memory rehabilitation for adults with traumatic brain injury: A compensatory training programme

Primary objective: To describe a prospective memory rehabilitation programme based on a compensatory training approach and report the results of three case studies. Research design: Programme evaluation using pre-and post-intervention assessments and telephone follow-up. Methods and procedures: Three participants with traumatic brain injury completed 8 weeks of training with 1 - 2 hour individual sessions. Assessments were formal prospective memory assessment, self-report and measures of diary use. Experimental interventions: Intervention aimed to identify potential barriers, establish self-awareness of memory deficits, introduce a customized compensatory tool, a cueing system and organizational strategies. A significant other was involved in training to assist generalization. Main outcomes and results: All three participants improved on formal prospective memory assessment and demonstrated successful diary use after the programme. Self-report of prospective memory failure fluctuated and may reflect increased self-awareness. Conclusion: A compensatory approach may be useful in improving prospective memory performance following TBI.

Seronegative spondyloarthropathies: To lump or split?

The advent of novel biological therapies for the treatment of rheumatic disease has renewed interest in the seronegative spondyloarthropathies (SpAs). International efforts are redefining disease classification and measures of disease activity, outcome, metrology, and imaging. However, opinion is divided between those who propose that the SpA group represents the same disease with variable expression (the lumpers) and those who consider these to be separate diseases with shared clinical features (the splitters). This review presents the evidence for both approaches.

Predictors of young dating adults' inclination to engage in extradyadic sexual activities: A multi-perspective study

Using a multi-perspective vignette design, we explored predictors of young peoples' (N = 119) propensity to engage in unfaithful activities while dating. Demographic measures, a datding investment model, and measures of functional and dysfunctional impulsivity were used to predict inclination to engage in each of two extradyadic activities (kissing and sexual activity). The results of moderated multiple regression analyses revealed that a respondent's number of sexual partners, level of dysfunctional impulsivity, satisfaction with current relationship, and quality of relationship alternatives significantly predicted inclination to engage in both of the extradyadic activities. Consistent with previous findings, gender only showed significant predictive value in relation to extradyadic sex inclination. Moreover, the association between sex, love, and marriage interacted with gender in the prediction of both extradyadic activities and interacted with commitment in the prediction of extradyadic sex inclination. Suggestions for future research in this area are offered in light of these new findings.

The importance of the relevance of the issue to the group in voting intentions: The case of the Australian republic referendum

A questionnaire was distributed on the Australian republic issue to examine the interplay between norms and relevance of the issue to the group on voting intentions. Supporters of an Australian republic (N = 188) indicated the level of support for a republic within their peer Group, the relevance of the republic issue to the group, and measures designed to assess voting intentions and other attitude outcomes. Analysis revealed an interaction between normative support and relevance of the issue to the group. On the measure of intention, increasing normative support was associated with increased intention to vote in an attitude-consistent way at both relevance levels, but the effect was heightened when the issue was highly relevant to the group. On the outcomes of willingness to express opinion and perceived personal importance of the republic issue, normative support had a positive effect only when the issue was highly relevant to the group. Mediation analyses revealed that the impact of normative support and group relevance on intention were mediated through perceived personal importance of the republic issue.

Community-based programs to promote care seat restraints in children 0-16 years - A systematic review

Study Objective: Community-based models for injury prevention have become an accepted part of the overall injury control strategy. This systematic review of the scientific literature examines the evidence for their effectiveness in reducing injury due to inadequate car seat restraint use in children 0-16 years of age. Methods: A comprehensive search of the literature was performed using the following study selection criteria: community-based intervention study: target population was children aged 0-16 years of age; outcome measure was either injury rates due to motor vehicle crashes or observed changes in child restraint use; and use of community control or historical control in the study design. Quality assessment and data abstraction was guided by a standardized procedure and performed independently by two authors. Data synthesis was in tabular and text form with meta-analysis not being possible due to the discrepancy in methods and measures between the studies. Results: This review found eight studies, that met all the inclusion criteria. In the studies that measured injury outcomes, significant reductions in risk of motor vehicle occupant injury (33-55%) were reported in the study communities. For those studies reporting observed car seat restraint use the community-based programs were successful in increasing toddler restraint use in 1-5 year aged children by up to 11%; child booster seat use in 4-8 year aged children by up to 13%; rear restraint use in children aged 0-15 years by 8%; a 50% increase in restraint use in pre-school aged children in a high-risk community; and a 44% increase in children aged 5-11 years. Conclusion: While this review highlights that there is some evidence to support the effectiveness of community-based programs to promote car restraint use and/or motor vehicle occupant injury, limitations in the evaluation methodologies of the studies requires the results to be interpreted with caution. There is clearly a need for further high quality program evaluation research to develop an evidence base. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.