Option-Implied Preferences Adjustments and Risk-Neutral Density Forecasts

The main objective of this paper is to analyse the value of information contained in prices of options on the IBEX 35 index at the Spanish Stock Exchange Market. The forward looking information is extracted using implied risk-neutral density functions estimated by a mixture of two-lognormals and three alternative risk-adjustments: the classic power and exponential utility functions and a habit-based specification that allows for a counter-cyclical variation of risk aversion. Our results show that at four-week horizon we can reject the hypothesis that between October 1996 and March 2000 the risk-neutral densities provide accurate predictions of the distributions of future realisations of the IBEX 35 index at a four-week horizon. When forecasting through risk-adjusted densities the performance of this period is statistically improved and we no longer reject that hypothesis. All risk-adjusted densities generate similar forecasting statistics. Then, at least for a horizon of four-weeks, the actual risk adjustment does not seem to be the issue. By contrast, at the one-week horizon risk-adjusted densities do not improve the forecasting ability of the risk-neutral counterparts.

Wage differentials between Permanent and Temporal Contracts: Further Evidence

The main objective of this paper is to estimate wage differentials between permanent and temporal workers for different qualification levels and decompose such differentials to see which factors contribute more to explain them. The data we use is the "Encuesta de Estructura Salarial", a survey carried out in 1995 in all countries of the European Union, which contains very detailed information on wages and other characteristics for about 180.000 workers. The empirical results indicate that (a) the wage gap between permanent and temporal workers increases with qualification and it is smaller for females than for males, (b) when decomposing average wage differentials for each qualification level, we observe that the vast majority of such differential is explainedby differences in characteristics, and in particular by differences in tenure and occupation. With respect to differences in returns, our results indicate that the returns to tenure are higher for temporal workres relative to permanent workers for both males and females and for every qualification level. Returns to occupation are higher for permanent than for temporal workers, and the differenceis particularly high for females.

Report of the 2005 Workshop on Ocean Ecodynamics Comparison in the Subarctic Pacific

I. Scientific Issues Posed by OECOS II. Participant Contributions to the OECOS Workshop A. ASPECTS OF PHYTOPLANKTON ECOLOGY IN THE SUBARCTIC PACIFIC Microbial community compositions by Karen E. Selph Subarctic Pacific lower trophic interactions: Production-based grazing rates and grazing-corrected production rates by Nicholas Welschmeyer Phytoplankton bloom dynamics and their physiological status in the western subarctic Pacific by Ken Furuya Temporal and spatial variability of phytoplankton biomass and productivity in the northwestern Pacific by Sei-ichi Saitoh, Suguru Okamoto, Hiroki Takemura and Kosei Sasaoka The use of molecular indicators of phytoplankton iron limitation by Deana Erdner B. IRON CONCENTRATION AND CHEMICAL SPECIATION Iron measurements during OECOS by Zanna Chase and Jay Cullen 25 The measurement of iron, nutrients and other chemical components in the northwestern North Pacific Ocean by Kenshi Kuma The measurement of iron, nutrients and other chemical components in the northwestern North Pacific Ocean by Kenshi Kuma C. PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY, FINE-SCALE DISTRIBUTION PATTERNS AND AUTONOMOUS DRIFTERS The use of drifters in Lagrangian experiments: Positives, negatives and what can really be measured by Peter Strutton The interaction between plankton distribution patterns and vertical and horizontal physical processes in the eastern subarctic North Pacific by Timothy J. Cowles D. MICROZOOPLANKTON Microzooplankton processes in oceanic waters of the eastern subarctic Pacific: Project OECOS by Suzanne Strom Functional role of microzooplankton in the pelagic marine ecosystem during phytoplankton blooms in the western subarctic Pacific by Takashi Ota and Akiyoshi Shinada E. MESOZOOPLANKTON Vertical zonation of mesozooplankton, and its variability in response to food availability, density stratification, and turbulence by David L. Mackas and Moira Galbraith Marine ecosystem characteristics and seasonal abundance of dominant calanoid copepods in the Oyashio region by Atsushi Yamaguchi, Tsutomu Ikeda and Naonobu Shiga OECOS: Proposed mesozooplankton research in the Oyashio region, western subarctic Pacific by Tsutomu Ikeda Some background on Neocalanus feeding by Michael Dagg Size and growth of interzonally migrating copepods by Charles B. Miller Growth of large interzonal migrating copepods by Toru Kobari F. MODELING Ecosystem and population dynamics modeling by Harold P. Batchelder III. Reports from Workshop Breakout Groups A. PHYSICAL AND CHEMICAL ASPECTS WITH EMPHASIS ON IRON AND IRON SPECIATION B. PHYTOPLANKTON/MICROZOOPLANKTON STUDIES C. MESOZOOPLANKTON STUDIES IV. Issues arising during the workshop A. PHYTOPLANKTON STOCK VARIATIONS IN HNLC SYSTEMS AND TROPHIC CASCADES IN THE NANO AND MICRO REGIMES B. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN EAST AND WEST IN SITE SELECTION FOR OECOS TIME SERIES C. TIMING OF OECOS EXPEDITIONS D. CHARACTERIZATION OF PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY V. Concluding Remarks VI. References (109 page document)

Alvará com força de Ley, por que Vossa Magestade ha por bem renovar a inteira, e inviolavel observancia da Ley de doze de setembro de mil seiscentos cincoenta e tres, em quanto nella se estabeleceo, que os indios do Graõ Pará, e Maranhaõ sejão governados no temporal pelos Governadores, Ministros, e pelos seus principaes, e justiças seculares, com inhibição das administrações dos regulares, derogando todas as Leys, Regimentos, Ordens, e Disposições contrarias : para V. Magestade ver / Antonio José Galvão o fez

Coleção Marcio Moreira Alves.

Population Dynamics of Cyrtobagous salviniae on Common Salvinia in South Florida

Common salvinia (Salvinia minima Baker) is an exotic floating fern that has been in the U.S. from at least 1928(Small 1931). Its pest status in Florida is less clear perhaps due to the presence of the specialized herbivore Cyrtobagous salviniae (Coleoptera: Curculionidae). Our objective was to sample populations of adult C. salviniae in south Florida in order to assess temporal abundance and estimate density on common salvinia. (PDF has 4 pages.)

Distribution and Density of Vegetative Hydrilla Propagules in the Sediments of Two New Zealand Lakes

The distribution and density of hydrilla (Hydrilla verticillata (L.f.)Royle) turions and tubers in two New Zealand lakes were assessed by sampling cores of sediment from Lakes Tutira and Waikapiro each year from 1994 to 1997. Turion and tuber density differed with water depth, with maximum numbers of tubers and turions found in the 1-2 m and 1.5-4m water depth ranges respectively. A high turion to tuber ratio was observed, with turions accounting for over 80% of propagules. The relatively low numbers of turions and tubers compared with other reports, and the distribution of most tubers within the shallow water is likely to be associated with black swan grazing (Cygnus atratus Latham), with maintains a canopy of hydrilla consistently 1 m below the water surface.

Temporal and spatial changes in milfoil distribution and biomass associated with weevils in Fish Lake, WI

During the course of an eight year monitoring effort, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources documented a significant decline in milfoil biomass and distribution in Fish Lake, Wisconsin. Average milfoil biomass declined by 40- 50% from 374-524 g dw m -2 during 1991-93 to 265 g dw m -2 during both 1994 and 1995. Milfoil recovered fully in 1996- 98 to 446- 564 g dw m -2 . The size of the milfoil bed, as discerned from aerial photographs, shrank from a maximum coverage of 40 ha in 1991 to less than 20 ha during 1995. During the “crash” of 1994-95, milfoil plants exhibited typical signs of weevil-induced damage, including darkened, brittle, hollowed-out growing tips, and the arching and collapse of stems associated with loss of buoyancy. Monitoring of weevils and stem damage during 1995-98 showed highest densities and heaviest damage occurred near shore and subsequently fanned out into deeper water from core infestation sites each spring. The extent of milfoil stem damage was positively correlated with weevil densities (monthly sampling). However, weevil densities and stem damage were lower during 1995 (when milfoil biomass was in decline) than during 1996-98 (when milfoil biomass was fully recovered).

Measurement of Electron Density Profile Behind Strong Shock Waves with a Langmuir Probe

At the shock velocity range of 7~9km/s, the variations of electron density behind strong normal shock waves are measured in a low-density shock tube by using the Langmuir electrostatic probe technique. The electron temperature, calculated based on Park’s three-temperature model, is used in interpreting the probe current data. The peak electron densities determined in the present experiment are shown to be in a good agreement with those predicted by Lin’s calculation. The experimentally obtained ratios of the characteristic ionization distance to the mean free path of freestream ahead of the shock wave are found to be in a good agreement with the existing experiments and Park’s calculation.

Spatial and Temporal Variation of LURR and Its Implication for the Tendency of Earthquake Occurrence in Southern California

Based on the theory of LURR and its recent development, spatial and temporal variation of Y/Y-c (value of LURR/critical value of LURR) in the Southern California region during the period from 1980 through March, 2001 was studied. According to the previous study on the fault system and stress field in Southern California, we zoned the Southern California region into 11 parts in each of which the stress field is almost uniform. With the time window of one year, time moving step of three months, space window of a circle region with a radius of 100 km and space moving step of 0.25 degree in latitude and longitude direction, the evolution of Y/Y-c were snapshot. The scanning results show that obvious Y/Y-c anomalies occurred before 5/6 of strong earthquakes considered with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater. The critical regions of Y/Y-c are near the epicenters of the strong earthquakes and the Y/Y-c anomalies occur months to years prior to the earthquakes. The tendency of earthquake occurrence in the California region is briefly discussed on the basis of the examination of Y/Y-c.

Spatio-Temporal Scanning and Statistical Test of the Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) Model Using Australian Earthquake Data

The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AM R. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.

Ability of Urografin Density Gradients to Separate Nonculturable Subpopulations of Escherichia coli

Poster presentado a 11th International Symposium on Microbial Ecology(ISME -11)celebrado en Viena del 20 al 25 de agosto de 2006