Gender and East Asian Welfare States: from Confucianism to Gender Equality

How can we understand the gender logic underpinning the welfare states/systems of East Asia? Does the comparative literature, which has largely been concerned with western Welfare states, whether in The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism (Esping-Andersen 1990), or in gender-based analysis of the male breadwinner model (Lewis 1992, 2001, 2006), have anything to offer in understanding the gender assumptions underpinning East Asian welfare states? Are the welfare systems of East Asian countries distinctive, with Confucian assumptions hidden beneath the surface commitment to gender equality? We will use the (mainly western) comparative literature, but argue that Confucian influences remain important, with strong assumptions of family, market and voluntary sector responsibility rather than state responsibility, strong expectations of women’s obligations, without compensating rights, a hierarchy of gender and age, and a highly distinctive, vertical family structure, in which women are subject to parents-in-law. In rapidly changing economies, these social characteristics are changing too. But they still put powerful pressures on women to conform to expectations about care, while weakening their rights to security and support. Nowhere do welfare states’ promises bring gender equality in practice. Even in Scandinavian countries women earn less, care more, and have less power than men. We shall compare East Asian countries (Japan, Korea, Taiwan where possible) with some Western ones, to argue that some major comparative data (e.g. OECD) show the extreme situation of women in these countries. Some fine new qualitative studies give us a close insight into the experience of mothers, including lone and married mothers, which help us to understand how far the gender assumptions of welfare states are from Scandinavia’s dual earner model. There are signs of change in society as well as in economy, and room for optimism that women’s involvement in social movements and academic enquiry may be challenging Confucian gender hierarchies.

EXPLORING THE EFFECTS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SCHOOL CHARACTERISTICS, TEACHER CHARACTERISTICS, ADMINISTRATIVE SUPPORT, AND SCHOOL CLIMATE ON VOLUNTARY INTRA-DISTRICT TEACHER MIGRATION

This quantitative research study utilized a binary logistic regression in a block design to investigate exogenous and endogenous factors influencing a teacher’s decision to make an intra-district move. The research focused on the following exogenous factors: classroom characteristics (size of class, percent minority, percent of students with an individualized education plan, and percent of students that are English language learners) and teacher characteristics (experience and gender). The following endogenous factors were examined: direct administrative influence (administrative support, rules enforced, school vision, teacher recognition, and job security) and indirect administrative influence (school climate, student misbehavior, parental support, materials, staff collaboration). The research was conducted by using information available from the National Center for Educational Statistics, the SASS from 2011-2012 and TFS from 2012-2013. The 2012-2013 Teacher Follow-up Survey identified 60 teachers who made a voluntary intra-district move. Results illustrate there is a statistically significant relationship between percentage of English Language Learners and overall job satisfaction and teachers choosing to make an intra-district move.

Maternal history of early adversity and child emotional development : investigating intervening factors

L’objectif de cette thèse était de contribuer à l’avancement des connaissances quant aux circonstances permettant une transmission intergénérationnelle du risque émanant de l’adversité maternelle et aux mécanismes sous-tendant cette transmission, dans quatre articles empiriques. Le premier visait à explorer la relation entre un historique d’adversité maternelle, la sécurité d’attachement mère-enfant et le tempérament de l’enfant. Les mères ont complété une entrevue semi-structurée portant sur leurs représentations d’attachement avec leurs parents, à 6 mois, et ont évalué le tempérament de leur enfant à 2 ans. La sécurité d’attachement fut également évaluée à 2 ans. Les résultats ont démontré que les enfants dont les mères rapportaient des niveaux supérieurs d’adversité présentaient de moins bons niveaux d’activité comportementale, uniquement lorsqu’ils avaient un attachement sécurisant avec leur mère. Ces résultats suggèrent une transmission intergénérationnelle des effets d’un historique d’adversité maternelle sur le tempérament des enfants. Le deuxième article visait à investiguer si le transporteur de sérotonine (5-HTTLPR) module la transmission de risque intergénérationnelle de l’adversité maternelle sur le tempérament des enfants. L’historique d’adversité maternelle fut évalué en combinant deux mesures auto-rapportées. Les mères ont également évalué le tempérament de leur enfant à 18 et à 36 mois. Le génotype des enfants fut extrait à 36 mois. Les résultats ont révélé un effet d’interaction entre l’adversité maternelle et le génotype de l’enfant sur le tempérament, suggérant une transmission intergénérationnelle des effets de l’adversité maternelle sur le fonctionnement émotionnel des enfants. Le troisième article visait à explorer la relation entre les difficultés d’adaptation psychosociale des mères, la sensibilité maternelle et les symptômes intériorisés de leurs enfants. Les mères ont complété plusieurs questionnaires desquels un score composite de difficultés d’adaptation psychosociale fut extrait. La sensibilité maternelle fut observée à 12 mois. Les symptômes intériorisés des enfants furent évalués par les deux parents à 2 et à 3 ans. Les résultats ont démontré qu’une augmentation des difficultés maternelles d’adaptation psychosociale étaient associée à davantage de symptômes intériorisés chez les enfants, mais seulement chez ceux dont les mères étaient moins sensibles. Ces résultats ont été observés par les mères à 2 ans et par les deux parents à 3 ans. Ces résultats suggèrent que les enfants peuvent être différemment affectés par l’adaptation émotionnelle de leur mère tout en mettant l’emphase sur le rôle protecteur de la sensibilité maternelle. Le quatrième article visait à investiguer les rôles médiateurs de la dépression et de la sensibilité maternelle dans la relation entre un historique d’adversité maternelle et le tempérament de l’enfant. L’historique d’adversité maternelle fut évalué en combinant deux mesures auto-rapportées. Les mères ont également rapporté leurs symptômes dépressifs à 6 mois. La sensibilité maternelle fut évaluée de façon concomitante. Les mères ont évalué le tempérament de leur enfant à 36 mois. Les résultats ont révélé une transmission intergénérationnelle des effets d’un historique d’adversité maternelle à la génération suivante suivant une médiation séquentielle passant d’abord par la dépression maternelle et ensuite par la sensibilité maternelle. Finalement, les résultats des quatre articles ont été intégrés dans la conclusion générale.

Turkish Security Policymaking on Nuclear Issues: Conceptualizing Advanced Cooperative Security Strategies

Turkey is a non-nuclear member of a nuclear alliance in a region where nuclear proliferation is of particular concern. As the only North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member that has a border with the Middle East, Turkish officials argue that Turkey cannot solely rely on NATO guarantees in addressing the regional security challenges. However, Turkey has not been able to formulate a security policy that reconciles its quest for independence, its NATO membership, the bilateral relationship with the United States, and regional engagement in the Middle East. This dissertation assesses the strategic implications of Turkey’s perceptions of the U.S./NATO nuclear and conventional deterrence on nuclear issues. It explores three case studies by the process tracing of Turkish policymakers’ nuclear-related decisions on U.S. tactical nuclear weapons deployed in Europe, national air and missile defense, and Iran’s nuclear program. The study finds that the principles of Turkish security policymaking do not incorporate a fundamentally different reasoning on nuclear issues than conventional deterrence. Nuclear weapons and their delivery systems do not have a defining role in Turkish security and defense strategy. The decisions are mainly guided by non-nuclear considerations such as Alliance politics, modernization of the domestic defense industry, and regional influence. The dissertation argues that Turkey could formulate more effective and less risky security policies on nuclear issues by emphasizing the cooperative security approaches within the NATO Alliance over confrontational measures. The findings of this dissertation reveal that a major transformation of Turkish security policymaking is required to end the crisis of confidence with NATO, redefinition of the strategic partnership with the US, and a more cautious approach toward the Middle East. The dissertation argues that Turkey should promote proactive measures to reduce, contain, and counter risks before they develop into real threats, as well as contribute to developing consensual confidence-building measures to reduce uncertainty.

Enquadramento legal da Cibersegurança em Portugal e no Mundo

O cibercrime deixou há muito de ser uma palavra desconhecida para a generalidade da população mundial, sendo cada vez mais comum a execução dos mesmos por parte de indivíduos ou mesmo nações. Como tal, reveste-se de elevada importância a existência de uma resposta jurídica adequada às novas ameaças potenciadas pelo ciberespaço, a nível nacional e internacional. A evolução tecnológica levou à criação de novos elementos estratégicos, como os conceitos estratégicos de cibersegurança, e legislativos, com o objetivo de fazer face à especificidade da temática, tendo a União Europeia elaborado a Convenção de Budapeste sobre o Cibercrime de 23 de Novembro de 2001, e Portugal promulgado a Lei nº109/2009 de 15 de Setembro de 2009, a chamada Lei do Cibercrime. Apesar da existência da atual legislação, a ameaça pendente dos ciberataques tornou-se cada vez mais uma preocupação de todos os países, tendo em conta que um ataque no ciberespaço pode pôr em causa a sua segurança e soberania. Tendo estes factos em consideração, importa analisar qual o possível impacto dos ataques cibernéticos a nível nacional e das relações internacionais.

ASSESSMENT OF ASPEN AND NORTHERN HARDWOODS EXTENT IN THIRTY THREE COUNTIES OF UPPER/LOWER MICHIGAN

The importance of the United States' wood and wood byproducts as biomass feedstocks is increasing as the concern about security and sustainability of global energy production continues to rise. Thus, second generation woody feedstock sources in Michigan, e.g., hybrid poplar and hybrid willow (Populus spp.), are viewed as a potential source of biomass for the proposed biofuel ethanol production plant in Kinross, MI. It is important to gain an understanding of the spatial distribution of current feedstock sources, harvesting accessibility via the transportation infrastructure and land ownerships in order to ensure long-term feedstock extent. This research provides insights into the current extent of aspen and northern hardwoods, and an assessment of potential for expanding the area of these feedstock sources based on pre-European settlement conditions. A geographic information system (GIS) was developed to compile available geospatial data for 33 counties located within 150 miles of the Kinross facility. These include present day and pre-European settlement land use/cover, soils, road infrastructure, and land ownerships. The results suggest that a significant amount of northern hardwoods has been converted to other land use/cover types since European settlement, and the "scattering" of aspen stands has increased. Furthermore, a significant amount of woody biomass is available in close proximity to the existing road network, which can be effectively utilized as feedstock. Potential aspen and northern hardwoods restoration areas are identified in the vicinity of road networks which can be used for future woody feedstock production.

DATA DRIVEN INTELLIGENT AGENT NETWORKS FOR ADAPTIVE MONITORING AND CONTROL

To analyze the characteristics and predict the dynamic behaviors of complex systems over time, comprehensive research to enable the development of systems that can intelligently adapt to the evolving conditions and infer new knowledge with algorithms that are not predesigned is crucially needed. This dissertation research studies the integration of the techniques and methodologies resulted from the fields of pattern recognition, intelligent agents, artificial immune systems, and distributed computing platforms, to create technologies that can more accurately describe and control the dynamics of real-world complex systems. The need for such technologies is emerging in manufacturing, transportation, hazard mitigation, weather and climate prediction, homeland security, and emergency response. Motivated by the ability of mobile agents to dynamically incorporate additional computational and control algorithms into executing applications, mobile agent technology is employed in this research for the adaptive sensing and monitoring in a wireless sensor network. Mobile agents are software components that can travel from one computing platform to another in a network and carry programs and data states that are needed for performing the assigned tasks. To support the generation, migration, communication, and management of mobile monitoring agents, an embeddable mobile agent system (Mobile-C) is integrated with sensor nodes. Mobile monitoring agents visit distributed sensor nodes, read real-time sensor data, and perform anomaly detection using the equipped pattern recognition algorithms. The optimal control of agents is achieved by mimicking the adaptive immune response and the application of multi-objective optimization algorithms. The mobile agent approach provides potential to reduce the communication load and energy consumption in monitoring networks. The major research work of this dissertation project includes: (1) studying effective feature extraction methods for time series measurement data; (2) investigating the impact of the feature extraction methods and dissimilarity measures on the performance of pattern recognition; (3) researching the effects of environmental factors on the performance of pattern recognition; (4) integrating an embeddable mobile agent system with wireless sensor nodes; (5) optimizing agent generation and distribution using artificial immune system concept and multi-objective algorithms; (6) applying mobile agent technology and pattern recognition algorithms for adaptive structural health monitoring and driving cycle pattern recognition; (7) developing a web-based monitoring network to enable the visualization and analysis of real-time sensor data remotely. Techniques and algorithms developed in this dissertation project will contribute to research advances in networked distributed systems operating under changing environments.

Development and Verification of Control and Protection Strategies in Hybrid AC/DC Power Systems for Smart Grid Applications

Modern power networks incorporate communications and information technology infrastructure into the electrical power system to create a smart grid in terms of control and operation. The smart grid enables real-time communication and control between consumers and utility companies allowing suppliers to optimize energy usage based on price preference and system technical issues. The smart grid design aims to provide overall power system monitoring, create protection and control strategies to maintain system performance, stability and security. This dissertation contributed to the development of a unique and novel smart grid test-bed laboratory with integrated monitoring, protection and control systems. This test-bed was used as a platform to test the smart grid operational ideas developed here. The implementation of this system in the real-time software creates an environment for studying, implementing and verifying novel control and protection schemes developed in this dissertation. Phasor measurement techniques were developed using the available Data Acquisition (DAQ) devices in order to monitor all points in the power system in real time. This provides a practical view of system parameter changes, system abnormal conditions and its stability and security information system. These developments provide valuable measurements for technical power system operators in the energy control centers. Phasor Measurement technology is an excellent solution for improving system planning, operation and energy trading in addition to enabling advanced applications in Wide Area Monitoring, Protection and Control (WAMPAC). Moreover, a virtual protection system was developed and implemented in the smart grid laboratory with integrated functionality for wide area applications. Experiments and procedures were developed in the system in order to detect the system abnormal conditions and apply proper remedies to heal the system. A design for DC microgrid was developed to integrate it to the AC system with appropriate control capability. This system represents realistic hybrid AC/DC microgrids connectivity to the AC side to study the use of such architecture in system operation to help remedy system abnormal conditions. In addition, this dissertation explored the challenges and feasibility of the implementation of real-time system analysis features in order to monitor the system security and stability measures. These indices are measured experimentally during the operation of the developed hybrid AC/DC microgrids. Furthermore, a real-time optimal power flow system was implemented to optimally manage the power sharing between AC generators and DC side resources. A study relating to real-time energy management algorithm in hybrid microgrids was performed to evaluate the effects of using energy storage resources and their use in mitigating heavy load impacts on system stability and operational security.

Hybrid Power System Intelligent Operation and Protection Involving Distributed Architectures and Pulsed Loads

Efficient and reliable techniques for power delivery and utilization are needed to account for the increased penetration of renewable energy sources in electric power systems. Such methods are also required for current and future demands of plug-in electric vehicles and high-power electronic loads. Distributed control and optimal power network architectures will lead to viable solutions to the energy management issue with high level of reliability and security. This dissertation is aimed at developing and verifying new techniques for distributed control by deploying DC microgrids, involving distributed renewable generation and energy storage, through the operating AC power system. To achieve the findings of this dissertation, an energy system architecture was developed involving AC and DC networks, both with distributed generations and demands. The various components of the DC microgrid were designed and built including DC-DC converters, voltage source inverters (VSI) and AC-DC rectifiers featuring novel designs developed by the candidate. New control techniques were developed and implemented to maximize the operating range of the power conditioning units used for integrating renewable energy into the DC bus. The control and operation of the DC microgrids in the hybrid AC/DC system involve intelligent energy management. Real-time energy management algorithms were developed and experimentally verified. These algorithms are based on intelligent decision-making elements along with an optimization process. This was aimed at enhancing the overall performance of the power system and mitigating the effect of heavy non-linear loads with variable intensity and duration. The developed algorithms were also used for managing the charging/discharging process of plug-in electric vehicle emulators. The protection of the proposed hybrid AC/DC power system was studied. Fault analysis and protection scheme and coordination, in addition to ideas on how to retrofit currently available protection concepts and devices for AC systems in a DC network, were presented. A study was also conducted on the effect of changing the distribution architecture and distributing the storage assets on the various zones of the network on the system’s dynamic security and stability. A practical shipboard power system was studied as an example of a hybrid AC/DC power system involving pulsed loads. Generally, the proposed hybrid AC/DC power system, besides most of the ideas, controls and algorithms presented in this dissertation, were experimentally verified at the Smart Grid Testbed, Energy Systems Research Laboratory. All the developments in this dissertation were experimentally verified at the Smart Grid Testbed.

The role of agriculture and food consumption in tropical conservation

A growing human population, shifting human dietary habits, and climate change are negatively affecting global ecosystems on a massive scale. Expanding agricultural areas to feed a growing population drives extensive habitat loss, and climate change compounds stresses on both food security and ecosystems. Understanding the negative effects of human diet and climate change on agricultural and natural ecosystems provides a context within which potential technological and behavioral solutions can be proposed to help maximize conservation. The purpose of this research was to (1) examine the potential effects of climate change on the suitability of areas for commercial banana plantations in Latin America in the 2050s and how shifts in growing areas could affect protected areas; (2) test the ability of small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to map productivity of banana plantations as a potential tool for increasing yields and decreasing future plantation expansions; (3) project the effects on biodiversity of increasing rates of animal product consumption in developing megadiverse countries; and (4) estimate the capacity of global pasture biomass production and Fischer-Tropsch hydrocarbon synthesis (IGCC-FT) processing to meet electricity, gasoline and diesel needs. The results indicate that (1) the overall extent of areas suitable for conventional banana cultivation is predicted to decrease by 19% by 2050 because of a hotter and drier climate, but all current banana exporting countries are predicted to maintain some suitable areas with no effects on protected areas; (2) Spatial patterns of NDVI and ENDVI were significantly positively correlated with several metrics of fruit yield and quality, indicating that UAV systems can be used in banana plantations to map spatial patterns of fruit yield; (3) Livestock production is the single largest driver of habitat loss, and both livestock and feedstock production are increasing in developing biodiverse tropical countries. Reducing global animal product consumption should therefore be at the forefront of strategies aimed at reducing biodiversity loss; (4) Removing livestock from global pasture lands and instead utilizing the biomass production could produce enough energy to meet 100% of the electricity, gasoline, and diesel needs of over 40 countries with extensive grassland ecosystems, primarily in tropical developing countries.^

GIS-integrated mathematical modeling of social phenomena at macro- and micro- levels—a multivariate geographically-weighted regression model for identifying locations vulnerable to hosting terrorist safe-houses: France as case study

Adaptability and invisibility are hallmarks of modern terrorism, and keeping pace with its dynamic nature presents a serious challenge for societies throughout the world. Innovations in computer science have incorporated applied mathematics to develop a wide array of predictive models to support the variety of approaches to counterterrorism. Predictive models are usually designed to forecast the location of attacks. Although this may protect individual structures or locations, it does not reduce the threat—it merely changes the target. While predictive models dedicated to events or social relationships receive much attention where the mathematical and social science communities intersect, models dedicated to terrorist locations such as safe-houses (rather than their targets or training sites) are rare and possibly nonexistent. At the time of this research, there were no publically available models designed to predict locations where violent extremists are likely to reside. This research uses France as a case study to present a complex systems model that incorporates multiple quantitative, qualitative and geospatial variables that differ in terms of scale, weight, and type. Though many of these variables are recognized by specialists in security studies, there remains controversy with respect to their relative importance, degree of interaction, and interdependence. Additionally, some of the variables proposed in this research are not generally recognized as drivers, yet they warrant examination based on their potential role within a complex system. This research tested multiple regression models and determined that geographically-weighted regression analysis produced the most accurate result to accommodate non-stationary coefficient behavior, demonstrating that geographic variables are critical to understanding and predicting the phenomenon of terrorism. This dissertation presents a flexible prototypical model that can be refined and applied to other regions to inform stakeholders such as policy-makers and law enforcement in their efforts to improve national security and enhance quality-of-life.

Secure and Privacy-aware Data Collection and Processing in Mobile Health Systems

Healthcare systems have assimilated information and communication technologies in order to improve the quality of healthcare and patient's experience at reduced costs. The increasing digitalization of people's health information raises however new threats regarding information security and privacy. Accidental or deliberate data breaches of health data may lead to societal pressures, embarrassment and discrimination. Information security and privacy are paramount to achieve high quality healthcare services, and further, to not harm individuals when providing care. With that in mind, we give special attention to the category of Mobile Health (mHealth) systems. That is, the use of mobile devices (e.g., mobile phones, sensors, PDAs) to support medical and public health. Such systems, have been particularly successful in developing countries, taking advantage of the flourishing mobile market and the need to expand the coverage of primary healthcare programs. Many mHealth initiatives, however, fail to address security and privacy issues. This, coupled with the lack of specific legislation for privacy and data protection in these countries, increases the risk of harm to individuals. The overall objective of this thesis is to enhance knowledge regarding the design of security and privacy technologies for mHealth systems. In particular, we deal with mHealth Data Collection Systems (MDCSs), which consists of mobile devices for collecting and reporting health-related data, replacing paper-based approaches for health surveys and surveillance. This thesis consists of publications contributing to mHealth security and privacy in various ways: with a comprehensive literature review about mHealth in Brazil; with the design of a security framework for MDCSs (SecourHealth); with the design of a MDCS (GeoHealth); with the design of Privacy Impact Assessment template for MDCSs; and with the study of ontology-based obfuscation and anonymisation functions for health data.

Big data, smart homes and ambient assisted living

Objectives: To discuss how current research in the area of smart homes and ambient assisted living will be influenced by the use of big data. Methods: A scoping review of literature published in scientific journals and conference proceedings was performed, focusing on smart homes, ambient assisted living and big data over the years 2011-2014. Results: The health and social care market has lagged behind other markets when it comes to the introduction of innovative IT solutions and the market faces a number of challenges as the use of big data will increase. First, there is a need for a sustainable and trustful information chain where the needed information can be transferred from all producers to all consumers in a structured way. Second, there is a need for big data strategies and policies to manage the new situation where information is handled and transferred independently of the place of the expertise. Finally, there is a possibility to develop new and innovative business models for a market that supports cloud computing, social media, crowdsourcing etc. Conclusions: The interdisciplinary area of big data, smart homes and ambient assisted living is no longer only of interest for IT developers, it is also of interest for decision makers as customers make more informed choices among today's services. In the future it will be of importance to make information usable for managers and improve decision making, tailor smart home services based on big data, develop new business models, increase competition and identify policies to ensure privacy, security and liability.

An empirical investigation of the impact of global energy transition on Nigerian oil and gas exports

18 months embargo on the thesis and check appendix for copy right materials

The epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease at the wildlife-livestock interface in northern Tanzania

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), a disease of cloven hooved animals caused by FMD virus (FMDV), is one of the most economically devastating diseases of livestock worldwide. The global burden of disease is borne largely by livestock-keepers in areas of Africa and Asia where the disease is endemic and where many people rely on livestock for their livelihoods and food-security. Yet, there are many gaps in our knowledge of the drivers of FMDV circulation in these settings. In East Africa, FMD epidemiology is complicated by the circulation of multiple FMDV serotypes (distinct antigenic variants) and by the presence of large populations of susceptible wildlife and domestic livestock. The African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) is the only wildlife species with consistent evidence of high levels of FMDV infection, and East Africa contains the largest population of this species globally. To inform FMD control in this region, key questions relate to heterogeneities in FMD prevalence and impacts in different livestock management systems and to the role of wildlife as a potential source of FMDV for livestock. To develop FMD control strategies and make best use of vaccine control options, serotype-specific patterns of circulation need to be characterised. In this study, the impacts and epidemiology of FMD were investigated across a range of traditional livestock-keeping systems in northern Tanzania, including pastoralist, agro-pastoralist and rural smallholder systems. Data were generated through field studies and laboratory analyses between 2010 and 2015. The study involved analysis of existing household survey data and generated serological data from cross-sectional livestock and buffalo samples and longitudinal cattle samples. Serological analyses included non-structural protein ELISAs, serotype-specific solid-phase competitive ELISAs, with optimisation to detect East African FMDV variants, and virus neutralisation testing. Risk factors for FMDV infection and outbreaks were investigated through analysis of cross-sectional serological data in conjunction with a case-control outbreak analysis. A novel Bayesian modeling approach was developed to infer serotype-specific infection history from serological data, and combined with virus isolation data from FMD outbreaks to characterise temporal and spatial patterns of serotype-specific infection. A high seroprevalence of FMD was detected in both northern Tanzanian livestock (69%, [66.5 - 71.4%] in cattle and 48.5%, [45.7-51.3%] in small ruminants) and in buffalo (80.9%, [74.7-86.1%]). Four different serotypes of FMDV (A, O, SAT1 and SAT2) were isolated from livestock. Up to three outbreaks per year were reported by households and active surveillance highlighted up to four serial outbreaks in the same herds within three years. Agro-pastoral and pastoral livestock keepers reported more frequent FMD outbreaks compared to smallholders. Households in all three management systems reported that FMD outbreaks caused significant impacts on milk production and sales, and on animals’ draught power, hence on crop production, with implications for food security and livelihoods. Risk factor analyses showed that older livestock were more likely to be seropositive for FMD (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.4 [1.4-1.5] per extra year) and that cattle (OR 3.3 [2.7-4.0]) were more likely than sheep and goats to be seropositive. Livestock managed by agro-pastoralists (OR 8.1 [2.8-23.6]) or pastoralists (OR 7.1 [2.9-17.6]) were more likely to be seropositive compared to those managed by smallholders. Larger herds (OR: 1.02 [1.01-1.03] per extra bovine) and those that recently acquired new livestock (OR: 5.57 [1.01 – 30.91]) had increased odds of suffering an FMD outbreak. Measures of potential contact with buffalo or with other FMD susceptible wildlife did not increase the likelihood of FMD in livestock in either the cross-sectional serological analysis or case-control outbreak analysis. The Bayesian model was validated to correctly infer from ELISA data the most recent serotype to infect cattle. Consistent with the lack of risk factors related to wildlife contact, temporal and spatial patterns of exposure to specific FMDV serotypes were not tightly linked in cattle and buffalo. In cattle, four serial waves of different FMDV serotypes that swept through southern Kenyan and northern Tanzanian livestock populations over a four-year period dominated infection patterns. In contrast, only two serotypes (SAT1 and SAT2) dominated in buffalo populations. Key conclusions are that FMD has a substantial impact in traditional livestock systems in East Africa. Wildlife does not currently appear to act as an important source of FMDV for East African livestock, and control efforts in the region should initially focus on livestock management and vaccination strategies. A novel modeling approach greatly facilitated the interpretation of serological data and may be a potent epidemiological tool in the African setting. There was a clear temporal pattern of FMDV antigenic dominance across northern Tanzania and southern Kenya. Longer-term research to investigate whether serotype-specific FMDV sweeps are truly predictable, and to shed light on FMD post-infection immunity in animals exposed to serial FMD infections is warranted.