CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN VULNERABLE CROP AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION SYSTEMS IN MGETA, TANZANIA

Increased occurrence of drought and dry spells during the growing season have resulted in increased interest in protection of tropical water catchment areas. In Mgeta, a water catchment area in the Uluguru Mountains in Tanzania, water used for vegetable and fruit production is provided through canals from the Uluguru South Forest Reserve. The clearing of forest land for cultivation in the steep slopes in the area is causing severe land degradation, which is threatening the water catchment area, livelihoods, and food security of the local communities, as well as the major population centers in the lowlands. In this paper, the economic performance of a traditional cropping-livestock system with East African (EA)-goats and pigs and extensive vegetable production is compared with a more sustainable and environmentally friendly crop-dairy goat production system. A linear programming (LP) crop-livestock model, maximizing farm income considering the environmental constraints in the area was applied for studying the economic performance of dairy goats in the production system. The model was worked out for the rainy and dry seasons and the analysis was conducted for a basic scenario representing the current situation, based on the variability in the 30 years period from 1982-2012, and in a scenario of both lower crop yields and increased crop variability due to climate change. Data obtained from a sample of 60 farmers that were interviewed using a questionnaire was used to develop and parameterize the model. The study found that in the steep slopes of the area, a crop-dairy goat system with extensive use of grass and multipurpose trees (MPTs) would do better than the traditional vegetable gardening with the EA goat production system. The crop-dairy goat system was superior both in the basic and in a climate change scenario since the yield variation of the grass and MPTs system was less affected compared to vegetable crops due to more tree cover and the use of perennial grasses. However, the goat milk production in the area was constrained by inadequate feeding and lack of an appropriate breeding program. Hence, farmers should enhance goat milk production by supplementing with more concentrate feed and by implementing goat-breeding principles. Moreover, policy measures to promote such a development are briefly discussed.

Favela não é o lugar, são as pessoas . Desconstruindo a relação entre lugar e violência no Sarney e no Japão, Natal/RN

The city is the privileged place construction of social and political life, and the gathering of social groups. Meeting place, the diversity and possibilities. But the urban universe which cities belong is not a homogeneous whole. There are spaces demarcated and valued ideologically creating antithetical images about places that are now recognized as violent or dangerous. Peripheral urban situations of unprivileged add to theprejudices to the origin of place within the neighborlyallotments José Sarney and Novo Horizonte (Japan Slum) / Natal-RN, which are reproduced in narratives of everyday life. Spatial divisions are exploited, mixed and repeated to maintain social distances through rites of separations and dichotomies such as neighborhood/joint housing, allotment/slum and the people of the high place/the people of the down place. Social categories such as buraco(hole) and cabras (goats) are evoked to interpret the world of violence and places regarded as dangerous. The prominence of hypermasculinity and perception of children and adolescents living on the outer elements are brought up to the interpretation of images evoked in interviews with residents and their neighbors

Estudo de polimorfismos genéticos e da sua associaçäo com capacidades de produçäo leiteira em caprinos de raça Algarvia e ovinos de raça Serra da Estrela

Dissertação de mest. em Química Celular, Unidade de Ciências Exactas e Humanas, Univ. do Algarve, 1996

Estudio de mercado y viabilidad técnica operativa para la comercialización de leche y queso de cabra en el municipio de San Esteban Catarina, departamento de San Vicente.

En El Salvador, el ganado caprino ha demostrado ser una especie de fácil adaptación a las condiciones ecológicas, climatológicas y de alimentación por lo que han sido parte importante para el sustento de las familias en regiones rurales, en la actualidad se considera un rubro factible de inversión no tradicional, existen diferentes razas caprinas en el país entre ellas están: la Criolla o nativa, Saanen, Franco Alpina, Toggenbourg, Nubia y Mestiza. El país ha recibido ayuda de instituciones no gubernamentales sin fines de lucro como es el caso de la Fundación Intervida El Salvador, que se dedica a beneficiar a familias de escasos recursos, la cual implemento un proyecto de producción de leche de cabra en el Cantón Amatitan Arriba, Municipio de San Esteban Catarina, Departamento de San Vicente, proporcionándoles a dos familias la cantidad de ocho cabras y un macho a cada una. Por lo tanto, se realizó un estudio de mercado y viabilidad técnica operativa para la comercialización de leche y queso de cabra en el Municipio de San Esteban Catarina, Departamento de San Vicente, dicho estudio comprende un marco teórico y la metodología del estudio de mercado dentro del cual se determinó la muestra utilizando un muestreo proporcional cuyo resultado fue 190 familias a quienes se les encuesto, las tabulaciones dieron como resultado que existe una demanda real de 37.37% que compran actualmente leche de cabra, y una demanda potencial de 43.70% que son aquellas que les gustaría consumir leche de cabra ósea los futuros compradores, además de una demanda potencial de queso de cabra de 44.21% . Se realizó un diagnóstico de la situación actual de la leche y queso de cabra mediante la observación se identificó las fortalezas, oportunidades, debilidades y amenazas, y se determinó la matriz FODA, efectuando los cruces se establecieron las estrategias. Se obtuvieron los resultados del estudio de mercado y viabilidad técnica operativa, detallando el proceso de producción que se realiza de forma artesanal, y mostrando la distribución física actual del proyecto en cada familia; además de determinar el análisis de la demanda, que comprende la determinación del precio de venta que sería de $0.40 por vaso, con una cobertura del mercado del 80%, se espera vender al mes 1,867 vasos por mes. La Fundación Intervida El Salvador, proporcionó la inversión inicial del proyecto y los precios y costo mensuales y trimestrales, información que se utilizó para realizar las proyección de costos mensuales por tres años, se trabajó en las proyección de ventas igual que en los costos, todo esto para hacer el análisis financiero que comprende el análisis del VAN, la TIR, El Pay Back, y el Punto de Equilibrio; asimismo se establecieron los objetivos a corto y mediano plazo, se aplicaron técnicas de dirección estratégicas para elaborar las matrices de evaluación del factor interno y externo, tomando como insumo el FODA, obteniendo resultados cuantitativos que fueron base para elaborar la matriz interna y externa, ubicándose el proyecto en el cuadrante V que dirige las estrategias de conservar y mantener dentro de las cuales están las estrategias de penetración en el mercado y desarrollo de productos, de la misma manera se utilizó la matriz de planeacion estratégica cuantitativa que evaluó las estrategias antes mencionadas con el fin de determinar la estrategia más atractiva para su puesta en marcha siendo está la estrategia de penetración de mercado, cuyas acciones son de incrementar la publicidad, además se elaboró el presupuesto para dichas acciones. Finalmente se realizó el cálculo de amortización del préstamo, y se elaboró el estado de resultados de los tres años que durará el proyecto.

Efeito da utilização do Kit Embrapa de Ordenha Manual® para caprinos leiteiros na Contagem Total de Bactérias do leite.

Resumo: A produção de leite de cabra no Brasil destaca-se no Nordeste, onde as condições de criação e os programas governamentais favorecem a produção. A qualidade higiênico-sanitária do leite de cabra, além de ser uma característica indispensável ao produto, exigida pela legislação Brasileira, contribui para diminuição nas perdas econômicas decorrentes da mastite e para a manutenção dos produtores na atividade. O Kit Embrapa de Ordenha Manual® para caprinos leiteiros é um conjunto de utensílios e práticas indispensáveis para a obtenção higiênica do leite de cabra, o qual apresenta-se como uma alternativa viável aos agricultores familiares devido à sua facilidade na utilização e baixo custo de aquisição. O Kit foi implantado e validado em 41 propriedades familiares, localizadas nos estados do Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba e Ceará. Procedeu-se a coleta de leite de cabra 3 dias antes e 3 dias após a utilização do Kit, para a realização da Contagem Total de Bactérias (CTB). Observou-se uma redução média de 72% da CTB no leite produzido, e, 95% das propriedades adequaram-se à CTB exigida pela legislação Brasileira. [Effect of the use of the Milking Manual® EMBRAPA Kit for dairy goats total count in milk bacteria]. Abstract: The goat milk production in Brazil stands out in the Northeast, where the breeding conditions and government programs favor the production. The sanitary hygienic quality of goat milk as well as being an indispensable feature to the product, required by Brazilian law, contributes to decrease in economic losses resulting from mastitis and to the maintenance of the producers in the activity. The Embrapa manual milking kit® for dairy goats is an essential set of tools and practices for obtaining hygienic goat milk, which presents itself as a viable alternative to farmers due to its ease of use and low cost. The Kit has been deployed and validated in 41 family farms in the states of Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba and Ceará. The goat milking practice was carried out both three days before and three days after using the kit for the realization of Total Bacteria Count (CTB). There was an average reduction of 72 % CTB on the milk, and 95 % of the properties have adapted to the CTB required by Brazilian law.

Molecular detection of Brucella melitensis in sheep and goat milk in Iran

Purpose: To detect Brucella melitensis in the milk of reared sheep and goats from Isfahan and Shahrekord regions, Iran. Methods: A total of 225 milk samples (sheep = 125; goat = 100) were collected from Isfahan and Shahrekord regions, Central Iran. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used to detect the presence of B. melitensis in the milk following standard procedures. Results: From 225 milk samples, 20 (8.9 %) were positive for B. melitensis. Out of 125 sheep milk, 12 (9.6 %) had B. melitensis, and of these, 8 (66.6 %) were milk collected from Shahrekord and 4 (33.3 %) from Isfahan region. On the other hand, out of 100 goat milk samples, 18 (18 %) were positive for B. melitensis, out of which 10 (55.5 %) were from Shahrekord and 8 (44.4 %) from Isfahan. Conclusion: The findings show that B. melitensis is present in a significant proportion of caprine and ovine milk in a section of Iran.

Avaliação histopatológica do fígado de bovinos mantidos em pastagens de Brachiaria spp. provenientes de abatedouros no Brasil

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Agronomia e Medicina Veterinária, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Saúde Animal, 2016.

Governança de recursos de base comum e capacidade adaptativa de comunidades de fundos de pasto

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Centro de Desenvolvimento Sustentável, 2015.

Eficiência da recuperação de embriões e os efeitos de consecutivas colheitas sobre o aparelho reprodutor de doadoras da espécie caprina.

Resumo: 0 objetivo deste experimento foi comparar a eficiêncÎa e o efeito de consecutivas colheitas de embriões, por três diferentes métodos (transcervical-T1, laparoscopia-T2 e laparotomia-T3), sobre a atividade reprodutiva de doadoras da espécie caprina. Utilizaram-se 10 cabras em cada método (T1, T2 e T3), sendo as colheitas de embriões repetidas três vezes consecutivas nas mesmas fêmeas, com intervalo de 56 dias. As fêmeas foram sincronizadas com esponjas vaginais impregnadas com 60 mg de acetato de medroxiprogesterona durante 10 dias e 100 ug de cloprostenol aplicados pela via lM no oitavo dia da sincronizaçao. No 8º dia, iniciou-se a superovulaçao com 250 UI de FSH de origem suína, divididas em oito doses decrescentes, aplicadas em intervalo de 12 horas. As fêmeas foram acasaladas e as colheitas de embriões realizadas no 5° ou 6° dia após a ultima cobertura. Após 56 dias da terceira colheita de embriões, foram realizados o abate e a necrópsia das doadoras. 0 tempo necessário para a a colheita de embriões em cada método foi de 21 minutos e 32 segundos; 37 minutos e 14 segundos e 56 minutos e 22 segundos, respectivamente, para TI, T 2 e T 3 (p<0,0I). A maior taxa de recuperaçao da soluçao de lavagem foi no T3 (83,7%), seguido por T2 (72,2%) e TI (64,3%) (p<0,05). As taxas médias de recuperaçao dos embriões foram 57,1; 81,1 e 27,3% para TI' T2 e T3' respectivamente, com variaçao entre 0-100%. A taxa de recuperaçao de embriões sofreu influência de varios fatores, com a presença de corpos luteos regredidos, a taxa de ovulaçao e a presença de aderências no sistema genital, mas, isoladamente, a taxa de recuperaçao de embriões foi satisfatória nos três métodos. 0 T1 causou eversao do endométrio e aderência entre o corno uterino e o epíploo em uma unica fêmea, o T2 causou eversao do endométrio em 30%, 40% e 60% e aderências do sistema genital em 10%, 10% e 70% das fêmeas à 1 a, 2a e 3a colheitas, respectivamente. 0 T3 causou aderências no sistema genital em 80% das doadoras ; após a primeira e 100% após a segunda colheita. 0 T1 e o T2 permitem o usa de doadoras em repetidas colheitas de embriões, o que nao ocorre com o T3, que causa aderências no sistema genital e órgaos circunvizinhos em 100% dos casos. [Efficiency and effect of consecutive embryo recoveries on the reproductive system of goat donnors].

Ocorrência da infecção por Toxoplasma gondii e avaliação da imunização em caprinos do sertão do cabugi, Rio Grande do Norte

Toxoplasmosis is one zoonosis caused by Toxoplasma gondii protozoan. Goats, amongst the production animals, are one of the species most susceptible to this parasite, being one them main involved agents in ovine and goat abortions, determining great economic losses and implications for public health, since the presence it parasite in the products of goat origin, consist in one of the main sources of infection for the man. In this study 244 blood samples in 8 farms situated in 4 cities from the Sertão do Cabugi region, Rio Grande do Norte State, northeast of Brazil and, tested by ELISA assay. The results had shown a prevalence of 47.13% for anti- T. gondii antibodies and a significant association between positivity and variable evaluated as age, locality and property. The IgG avidity assay evaluated in 115 positive samples was carried to discriminate acute and chronic infection. Twelve samples (10.4%) had presented antibodies of low avidity while 103 (89.6%) presented high avidity antibodies; indicating that most of the animals was precocious exposure to the parasite. Significant difference was verified only for the variable sex. We also evaluate the capacity of recombinant adenoviruses codifying SAG1, SAG2, SAG3 and CMV in inducing activation of specific immune response in goat. These 109 animals received 109 pfu of the AdSAG1, AdSAG2, AdSAG3, AdCMV or PBS in vaccine protocol with 3 immunizations. Serum samples of the each animal, before and after mmunization, had been submitted to the ELISA. The results demonstrate that the immunizations had induced the production of IgG antibodies specific against T. gondii proteins

Epidemiological investigation of bovine tuberculosis herd breakdowns in Spain 2009/2011

We analyzed the most likely cause of 687 bovine tuberculosis (bTB) breakdowns detected in Spain between 2009 and 2011 (i.e., 22% of the total number of breakdowns detected during this period). Seven possible causes were considered: i) residual infection; ii) introduction of infected cattle from other herds; iii) sharing of pastures with infected herds; iv) contiguous spread from infected neighbor herds; v) presence of infected goats in the farm; vi) interaction with wildlife reservoirs and vii) contact with an infected human. For each possible cause a decision tree was developed and key questions were included in each of them. Answers to these key questions lead to different events within each decision tree. In order to assess the likelihood of occurrence of the different events a qualitative risk assessment approach was used. For this purpose, an expert opinion workshop was organized and ordinal values, ranging from 0 to 9 (i.e., null to very high likelihood of occurrence) were assigned. The analysis identified residual infection as the most frequent cause of bTB breakdowns (22.3%; 95%CI: 19.4-25.6), followed by interaction with wildlife reservoirs (13.1%; 95%CI: 10.8-15.8). The introduction of infected cattle, sharing of pastures and contiguous spread from infected neighbour herds were also identified as relevant causes. In 41.6% (95%CI: 38.0-45.4) of the breakdowns the origin of infection remained unknown. Veterinary officers conducting bTB breakdown investigations have to state their opinion about the possible cause of each breakdown. Comparison between the results of our analysis and the opinion from veterinary officers revealed a slight concordance. This slight agreement might reflect a lack of harmonized criteria to assess the most likely cause of bTB breakdowns as well as different perceptions about the importance of the possible causes. This is especially relevant in the case of the role of wildlife reservoirs.

Evolution of specific antibodies and proviral DNA in milk of small ruminants infected by small ruminant lentivirus

The diagnosis of Small Ruminant Lentivirus (SRLV) is based on clinical signs, pathological lesions and laboratory testing. No standard reference test for the diagnosis of maedi visna has been validated up to the present, and it is puzzling that tests which detect antibodies against the virus and tests which detect the proviral genome may render opposite results. The aim of this study was to evaluate the presence in milk throughout a lactation period of specific antibodies by ELISA and of SRLV proviral DNA by a PCR of the highly conserved pol region. A six-month study was conducted with the milk of 28 ewes and 31 goats intensively reared. The percentage of animals with antibodies against SRLV increased throughout the study period. Seroprevalence in sheep was 28% at the beginning of the study and by the end it had increased up to 52.4%. In goats, initial seroprevalence of 5.6% increased to 16%. The percentage of PCR positive ewes was stable throughout the study period. Of the positive sheep, 21.4% were PCR-positive before antibodies could be detected and most of them became PCR-negative shortly after the first detection of antibodies. This might suggest that antibodies have a neutralizing effect. In addition, an equal percentage of sheep were always PCR-negative but either became ELISA-positive or was always ELISA-positive, which might support this hypothesis. On the other hand, the PCR results in goats did not follow any pattern and oscillated between 35.3% and 55.6% depending on the month. Most goats positive by PCR failed to develop antibodies in the 6 months tested. We may conclude that the infection and the antibody response to it follow a different trend in sheep and goats.

Spatio-temporal patterns of herbage availability and livestock movements: A cross-border analysis in the Chinese-Mongolian Altay

Due to increasing population and the recent implementation of policies to intensify the use of land and water resources, the transhumant pastoral systems in the Chinese-Mongolian Altay-Dzungarian region are rapidly changing, leading to modifications of herd size, herd composition and spatial distribution of livestock grazing. This may have major consequences for the supply and quality of rangeland biomass. Despite similar topographic settings, the socio-political framework for Chinese and Mongolian pastoralists differs significantly, leading to differences in rangeland utilization. To substantiate these claims, the long-distance transhumance routes, frequency of pasture changes, daily grazing itineraries and size of pastures were recorded by means of GPS tracking of cattle and goats on 1,535 (China) and 1,396 (Mongolia) observation days. The status quo of the main seasonal pastures was captured by measuring the herbage offer and its nutritive value in 869 sampling spots. In the Altay-Dzungarian region, small ruminant herds covered up to 412 km (Mongolia) and grazed on up to nine pastures per year (China). In Mongolia, the herds’ average duration of stay at an individual pasture was longer than in China, particularly in spring and autumn. Herbage allowance at the onset of a grazing period (kg dry matter per sheep unit and day) ranged from 34/17 to 91/95 (China/Mongolia). Comparing crude protein and phosphorous concentrations of herbage, in China, the highest concentrations were measured for spring and summer pastures, whereas in Mongolia, the highest concentrations were determined for autumn and winter pastures. Based on our data, we conclude that regulation of animal numbers and access to pastures seemingly maintained pasture productivity in China, especially at high altitudes. However, this policy may prohibit flexible adaptation to sudden environmental constraints. In contrast, high stocking densities and grazing of pastures before flowering of herbaceous plants negatively affected rangeland productivity in Mongolia, especially for spring and summer pastures.

Effects of charcoal-enriched goat manure on soil fertility parameters and growth of pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum L.) in a sandy soil from northern Oman

The effect of charcoal feeding on manure quality and its subsequent application to enhance soil productivity has received little attention. The objectives of the present study therefore were to investigate the effects of (i) charcoal feeding on manure composition, and (ii) charcoal-enriched manure application on soil fertility parameters and growth of millet (Pennisetum glaucum L.). To this end, two experiments were conducted: First, a goat feeding trial where goats were fed increasing levels of activated charcoal (AC; 0, 3, 5, 7, and 9% of total ration); second, a greenhouse pot experiment using the manure from the feeding trial as an amendment for a sandy soil from northern Oman. We measured manure C, N, P, and K concentrations, soil fertility parameters and microbial biomass indices, as well as plant yield and nutrient concentrations. Manure C concentration increased significantly (P<0.001) from 45.2% (0% AC) to 60.2% (9% AC) with increasing dietary AC, whereas manure N, P, and K concentrations decreased (P<0.001) from 0% AC (N: 2.5%, P: 1.5%, K: 0.8%) to 9% AC (N: 1.7%, P: 0.8%, K: 0.4%). Soil organic carbon, pH, and microbial biomass N showed a response to AC-enriched manure. Yield of millet decreased slightly with AC enrichment, whereas K uptake was improved with increasing AC. We conclude that AC effects on manure quality and soil productivity depend on dosage of manure and AC, properties of AC, trial duration, and soil type.

The epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease at the wildlife-livestock interface in northern Tanzania

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), a disease of cloven hooved animals caused by FMD virus (FMDV), is one of the most economically devastating diseases of livestock worldwide. The global burden of disease is borne largely by livestock-keepers in areas of Africa and Asia where the disease is endemic and where many people rely on livestock for their livelihoods and food-security. Yet, there are many gaps in our knowledge of the drivers of FMDV circulation in these settings. In East Africa, FMD epidemiology is complicated by the circulation of multiple FMDV serotypes (distinct antigenic variants) and by the presence of large populations of susceptible wildlife and domestic livestock. The African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) is the only wildlife species with consistent evidence of high levels of FMDV infection, and East Africa contains the largest population of this species globally. To inform FMD control in this region, key questions relate to heterogeneities in FMD prevalence and impacts in different livestock management systems and to the role of wildlife as a potential source of FMDV for livestock. To develop FMD control strategies and make best use of vaccine control options, serotype-specific patterns of circulation need to be characterised. In this study, the impacts and epidemiology of FMD were investigated across a range of traditional livestock-keeping systems in northern Tanzania, including pastoralist, agro-pastoralist and rural smallholder systems. Data were generated through field studies and laboratory analyses between 2010 and 2015. The study involved analysis of existing household survey data and generated serological data from cross-sectional livestock and buffalo samples and longitudinal cattle samples. Serological analyses included non-structural protein ELISAs, serotype-specific solid-phase competitive ELISAs, with optimisation to detect East African FMDV variants, and virus neutralisation testing. Risk factors for FMDV infection and outbreaks were investigated through analysis of cross-sectional serological data in conjunction with a case-control outbreak analysis. A novel Bayesian modeling approach was developed to infer serotype-specific infection history from serological data, and combined with virus isolation data from FMD outbreaks to characterise temporal and spatial patterns of serotype-specific infection. A high seroprevalence of FMD was detected in both northern Tanzanian livestock (69%, [66.5 - 71.4%] in cattle and 48.5%, [45.7-51.3%] in small ruminants) and in buffalo (80.9%, [74.7-86.1%]). Four different serotypes of FMDV (A, O, SAT1 and SAT2) were isolated from livestock. Up to three outbreaks per year were reported by households and active surveillance highlighted up to four serial outbreaks in the same herds within three years. Agro-pastoral and pastoral livestock keepers reported more frequent FMD outbreaks compared to smallholders. Households in all three management systems reported that FMD outbreaks caused significant impacts on milk production and sales, and on animals’ draught power, hence on crop production, with implications for food security and livelihoods. Risk factor analyses showed that older livestock were more likely to be seropositive for FMD (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.4 [1.4-1.5] per extra year) and that cattle (OR 3.3 [2.7-4.0]) were more likely than sheep and goats to be seropositive. Livestock managed by agro-pastoralists (OR 8.1 [2.8-23.6]) or pastoralists (OR 7.1 [2.9-17.6]) were more likely to be seropositive compared to those managed by smallholders. Larger herds (OR: 1.02 [1.01-1.03] per extra bovine) and those that recently acquired new livestock (OR: 5.57 [1.01 – 30.91]) had increased odds of suffering an FMD outbreak. Measures of potential contact with buffalo or with other FMD susceptible wildlife did not increase the likelihood of FMD in livestock in either the cross-sectional serological analysis or case-control outbreak analysis. The Bayesian model was validated to correctly infer from ELISA data the most recent serotype to infect cattle. Consistent with the lack of risk factors related to wildlife contact, temporal and spatial patterns of exposure to specific FMDV serotypes were not tightly linked in cattle and buffalo. In cattle, four serial waves of different FMDV serotypes that swept through southern Kenyan and northern Tanzanian livestock populations over a four-year period dominated infection patterns. In contrast, only two serotypes (SAT1 and SAT2) dominated in buffalo populations. Key conclusions are that FMD has a substantial impact in traditional livestock systems in East Africa. Wildlife does not currently appear to act as an important source of FMDV for East African livestock, and control efforts in the region should initially focus on livestock management and vaccination strategies. A novel modeling approach greatly facilitated the interpretation of serological data and may be a potent epidemiological tool in the African setting. There was a clear temporal pattern of FMDV antigenic dominance across northern Tanzania and southern Kenya. Longer-term research to investigate whether serotype-specific FMDV sweeps are truly predictable, and to shed light on FMD post-infection immunity in animals exposed to serial FMD infections is warranted.